Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Am I the only one here who thinks this "the crash is just around the corner" stuff is getting ridiculous now?

I really do not understand you sometimes Joe, 11 posts back I posted about a house in Dorset that has fallen almost 50%.

You sound like a troll.

[Wight Flight]

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I really do not understand you sometimes Joe, 11 posts back I posted about a house in Dorset that has fallen almost 50%.

You sound like a troll.

It's only relevant if you want to live in Dorset.

[Bobthebuilder]

Just now, Wight Flight said:

It's only relevant if you want to live in Dorset.

Anyone can try making offers, at least that way you are trying.

[JoeDavola]

13 minutes ago, Ianb78 said:

I’ve always been a proponent of the 18 year cycle so have pencilled in 2026 for years. I agree that the media keep saying there’s going to be a crash on an annual basis but that is clearly bullshit 

House price growth is overwhelmingly a product of affordable finance NOT lack of raw demand. In 2007/08, there was not a sudden lack of demand, it was driven by a lack of finance caused by the banking crisis 

Fair play to you then. Won't take long for us to find out.

The raise in IR's has crippled the local market here in terms of transactions but hasn't dropped prices at all. Just fewer houses being sold and some evidence of a BTL exodus. But the desirable stuff that does come on has buyers queuing up and finance is no less of a problem despite multiples of IR.

I suspect that parts of the market have totally decoupled from the cost of finance.

[JoeDavola]

11 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I really do not understand you sometimes Joe

It's ok neither do I sometimes.

11 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

11 posts back I posted about a house in Dorset that has fallen almost 50%

Grand - I missed that, had a quick look but still can't spot the post.

That 50% drop of course isn't indicitive of the wider market or even a particular local market.

Not trolling, just not going with the "crash around the corner" or "crash happening" idea which seems deluded to me based on what I see in the local market here. There are so many factors at play compared to the 07-12 crash in NI.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

It's ok neither do I sometimes.

Grand - I missed that, had a quick look but still can't spot the post.

That 50% drop of course isn't indicitive of the wider market or even a particular local market.

Not trolling, just not going with the "crash around the corner" or "crash happening" idea which seems deluded to me based on what I see in the local market here. There are so many factors at play compared to the 07-12 crash in NI.

To be honest with you Joe, if I didnt own my current house and was looking to buy in Dorset, I would have probably bought by now during this winter.

[JoeDavola]

2 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

To be honest with you Joe, if I didnt own my current house and was looking to buy in Dorset, I would have probably bought by now during this winter.

Because the dips in Dorset have been so significant?

Mind you I'm also guessing Dorset prices are still way higher than Belfast!

[Formerly]

13 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

But the desirable stuff that does come on has buyers queuing up and finance is no less of a problem despite multiples of IR.

Similar to my experience in Central Scotland. Despite offers well over asking we've yet to be the high bidder. Last one was a cash offer 27% over the home valuation. Apparently there were 5 higher offers, the best being a cash offer "significantly higher" than ours. Will be keeping an eye on the LR data to see what it actually got.

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Because the dips in Dorset have been so significant?

Mind you I'm also guessing Dorset prices are still way higher than Belfast!

The market is pretty stagnant TBH, but prices move on the margins. I have seen a few lovely places that require work, in the best locations that have sold recently for around £250K.

I would be happy to pay that.

[One percent]

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

The market is pretty stagnant TBH, but prices move on the margins. I have seen a few lovely places that require work, in the best locations that have sold recently for around £250K.

I would be happy to pay that.

I looked up that place you and @Bus Stop Boxer discuss. The prices are eye watering.    I expected them to be on a par with Whitby.  

[JoeDavola]

4 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

The market is pretty stagnant TBH, but prices move on the margins. I have seen a few lovely places that require work, in the best locations that have sold recently for around £250K.

I would be happy to pay that.

So mostly fixer uppers then you reckon?

I will say there's some fixer uppers that I've seen reently that have had to go to auction. I suspect 2 or 3 years ago they would have been snapped up but there was zero interest.

As I've said before the housing market is really many marketes even within one area.

I see some indicators of a BTL exodus; rents are way up over the last few years but not enough to make btl a good idea on credit...see all these flats currently for sale in the same development:

[JoeDavola]

11 minutes ago, Formerly said:

Similar to my experience in Central Scotland. Despite offers well over asking we've yet to be the high bidder. Last one was a cash offer 27% over the home valuation. Apparently there were 5 higher offers, the best being a cash offer "significantly higher" than ours. Will be keeping an eye on the LR data to see what it actually got.

Yeah so in that scenario you can see how ridiculous a crash sounds.

The house before last my parents looked at went for £50k over asking .... £295 to £345K....over 60 sets of viwers wanting to see it according to EA.

I think if your waiting for houses like that to crash you'll be in for a long wait.

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

As I've said before the housing market is really many marketes even within one area.

Spot on.

[onlyme]

45 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I really do not understand you sometimes Joe, 11 posts back I posted about a house in Dorset that has fallen almost 50%.

You sound like a troll.

I've been wondering what the hell could make NI such a stand out situtation - as shown by the monthly RICS reports as well, I think part of the answer might be this, as at this point in time you need your head pemanently arse bound to not realise the economy and jobs market is not doing well at all (plus interst rate rises).

The public sector accounts for 27% of employee jobs in NI. This compares to 18% in UK as a whole.

Edited February 9 by onlyme

[Bobthebuilder]

26 minutes ago, Formerly said:

Similar to my experience in Central Scotland. Despite offers well over asking we've yet to be the high bidder. Last one was a cash offer 27% over the home valuation. Apparently there were 5 higher offers, the best being a cash offer "significantly higher" than ours. Will be keeping an eye on the LR data to see what it actually got.

Was this a nice house in a decent location finished to a high standard by any chance.

[onlyme]

2 hours ago, spunko said:

This is just Liar Loans 2.0. I wonder when it'll be exposed that it's happening here.

Cant wait for the "I cant afford to buy a house because of Chinky scammers" protests.... if only.

Plenty that has not been flushed out from 1.0 it seems.

A labour governemtn is going to be hilarious in a macabre way, I don;t think they will have a chance in hell pully off the con trick with the economic setup they are going to inherit.

 

[Formerly]

6 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Was this a nice house in a decent location finished to a high standard by any chance.

No. But it was rare in that it had an acre of land. The house was OK. Some double glazing needed replaced (one French door totally knackered (smashed), lots of damp, but the causes were easy to spot (missing soffits and fascias and severe condensation). It possibly needed a new boiler. A fair bit of asbestos. External decorations needed redoing and a fair bit of rotten woodwork replaced Outbuildings falling down. House was structurally sound though - no signs of movement and roof looked good. Good layout and room sizes and location OK for commuting but not for local services. Really thought ours was a good offer given it needed tens of thousands spent tidying it up if paying trades.

[Bobthebuilder]

13 minutes ago, Formerly said:

No. But it was rare in that it had an acre of land. The house was OK. Some double glazing needed replaced (one French door totally knackered (smashed), lots of damp, but the causes were easy to spot (missing soffits and fascias and severe condensation). It possibly needed a new boiler. A fair bit of asbestos. External decorations needed redoing and a fair bit of rotten woodwork replaced Outbuildings falling down. House was structurally sound though - no signs of movement and roof looked good. Good layout and room sizes and location OK for commuting but not for local services. Really thought ours was a good offer given it needed tens of thousands spent tidying it up if paying trades.

Bloodyhell, that is the exact opposite of what's going on in Dorset.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

No market, where prices are supposedly rising, offer up drops like this.

Never mind the Wimborne one, that started at a mental price.

Whats happening is a very strong re-adjustment after the coof hysteria.

Its happening and its real.

This house was never worth starting price, and the process of new price discovery is underway.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/140421512#/media?channel=RES_BUY&id=media0&ref=photoCollage

 

Its worth mentioning that this particular agent has a reputation for quite realistic pricing.

This will end up at £395k after the spring "bounce".

 

Edited February 9 by Bus Stop Boxer

[Wight Flight]

50 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Yeah so in that scenario you can see how ridiculous a crash sounds.

The house before last my parents looked at went for £50k over asking .... £295 to £345K....over 60 sets of viwers wanting to see it according to EA.

I think if your waiting for houses like that to crash you'll be in for a long wait.

It doesn't help that my little area has been named one of the top ten coolest places to move to.

Bastards.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/10-coolest-postcodes-to-move-to-in-2024-s6tsshqsd

[Bus Stop Boxer]

53 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Yeah so in that scenario you can see how ridiculous a crash sounds.

The house before last my parents looked at went for £50k over asking .... £295 to £345K....over 60 sets of viwers wanting to see it according to EA.

I think if your waiting for houses like that to crash you'll be in for a long wait.

Can post plenty, already have, where its going the opposite way by the same amount.

Massive re-adjustment ongoing. In many places.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

It doesn't help that my little area has been named one of the top ten coolest places to move to.

Bastards.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/10-coolest-postcodes-to-move-to-in-2024-s6tsshqsd

Diversity. Where the fuck is Washwood Heath, Sparkbrook, Aston in there? Load of bollocks imo. Surly divests is our fuckin strength. 

[darkmarket]

Nobody would expect NI or Scotland to be at the leading edge of price trends. The question is why anyone would seriously suggest either are completely divorced from trends elsewhere in the UK.

You can run an endless narrative based on the usual pretexts, but it doesn't take a minute to find examples looking in the other direction already:

https://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.htm?property=4272688236

https://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.htm?property=4288788243

https://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.htm?property=4289135472

That's just a few of the reductions I've noticed in the past few weeks. Edinburgh and Glasgow have offers day in and day out below pandemic sale price.

I wouldn't say it's trolling to pretend it's not happening, both places seem fairly divorced from reality at this point in all senses. But of course they don't exist in sandboxes.

[Formerly]

6 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

Nobody would expect NI or Scotland to be at the leading edge of price trends. The question is why anyone would seriously suggest either are completely divorced from trends elsewhere in the UK.

You can run an endless narrative based on the usual pretexts, but it doesn't take a minute to find examples looking in the other direction already:

https://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.htm?property=4272688236

https://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.htm?property=4288788243

https://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.htm?property=4289135472

That's just a few of the reductions I've noticed in the past few weeks. Edinburgh and Glasgow have offers day in and day out below pandemic sale price.

I wouldn't say it's trolling to pretend it's not happening, both places seem fairly divorced from reality at this point in all senses. But of course they don't exist in sandboxes.

I agree. Plenty of identikit new builds on tiny plots are being reduced. Shame that's not what I want.

[darkmarket]

2 minutes ago, Formerly said:

I agree. Plenty of identikit new builds on tiny plots are being reduced. Shame that's not what I want.

None of those examples I posted are that type of property, but if your local area is that way, the same principle has to apply across property types too.

I expect big drops at the extremes, with the usual volatility in one-beds, BTL focus on 2-bed terraces and the baby boomer sell-off to childless gen x at the other extreme. But everything is susceptible to substitution, they all have negative aspects that look very prominent in a falling market.