Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[Frank Hovis]

Just now, JoeDavola said:

I mean gains as in buying power in the market.

At least they're bidding on 'ok' older houses rather than these newbuild monstrosities that have you stepping out onto the pavement.

 

I see a lot like that one on the left, they are very nice looking until you realise just how close they are to the pavement.

The below are just before some lights on one of the main routes into Truro.  Okay the pavement is wide and they look pretty when new, but you can literally step over that front garden onto the pavement.

 

[HousePriceMania]

27 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Not half a mill. Somewhere between £350K and £400K.

I'm not thinking about inheritence at all, I could very be very old or very dead before any of that becomes available.

Hi Joe.

I agree, no one decent wants an inheritance, your parents are much more important that money. 

I hope I didn't upset your yesterday and people shouldn't be piling on.

I enjoy your posts and have been lurking for months reading them but you need a kick up the arse.

I have no doubt what you are saying is true, the NI market isn't following the national trend etc etc etc, the question  is will it turn.  I bloody hope so, but it might not, who knows, maybe we'll see London prices in 2 years time, we get them in Northampton now and I personally know some of the fuckwits who have moved to the countryside, usually they'v e had two london pads to sell and have paid 20-30x the local wage for a house, the agents must be pissing themselves laughing.

If you dont think things will turn, buy a house, any house and enjoy it.

Either way, good luck, we'll all need it this year.

 

[HousePriceMania]

22 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I mean gains as in buying power in the market.

At least they're bidding on 'ok' older houses rather than these newbuild monstrosities that have you stepping out onto the pavement.

Are they making the prices up ?

I saw this yesterday

Funny price
 

Those prices look cheap compared to the shit hole are we live in, slave unit builders asking 500-800K for a 4 bed house.

Average wage is 30K ish.

The following house wouldn't have sell for £300K in 2019 now it'll cost you £3500 a month, that's £60K a year salary ( double the average wage ) just to buy a crappy house on a flood plain next to a motorway and dual carriageway.

[Bobthebuilder]

38 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I have no doubt what you are saying is true, the NI market isn't following the national trend etc etc etc, the question  is will it turn.

I think the problem with this thread at the moment is everyone's area is behaving differently, no one size fits all, and lets face it, it never does.

I fully agree with posters that have replied to me saying "this is not my local experience", and I understand that.

But we must keep going to share the wider view, that's what the forum is all about.

[JoeDavola]

Just to prove I do provide a balanced opinion...this has been on the market for months. It's in a quite desirable area of Belfast but is for some reason unmortgagable. I may have posted it here before. It was sitting cash offers of £275K for a few months and is now up for auction a guide price of £250K:

https://www.propertypal.com/118a-ardenlee-avenue-belfast/931189

Similarly this repo was on for months starting at £220K and slowly dropping until now its up for auction guide price £180K:

https://www.propertypal.com/lot-8-4-ormonde-crescent-belfast/929183

 

[spunko]

6 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Just to prove I do provide a balanced opinion...this has been on the market for months. It's in a quite desirable area of Belfast but is for some reason unmortgagable. I may have posted it here before. It was sitting cash offers of £275K for a few months and is now up for auction a guide price of £250K:

https://www.propertypal.com/118a-ardenlee-avenue-belfast/931189

Similarly this repo was on for months starting at £220K and slowly dropping until now its up for auction guide price £180K:

https://www.propertypal.com/lot-8-4-ormonde-crescent-belfast/929183

 

i think half the issue is that there's no Rightmove presence in N. Ireland so things like PATmA don't work on PropertyPal and it's hard to see the reductions clearly.... Why does nobody use Rightmove up there? Seems strange.

[JoeDavola]

4 minutes ago, spunko said:

i think half the issue is that there's no Rightmove presence in N. Ireland so things like PATmA don't work on PropertyPal and it's hard to see the reductions clearly.... Why does nobody use Rightmove up there? Seems strange.

No idea. There's two different property portal sites which is odd.

During the 08-12 crash someone wrote a scraper site to track price falls over time but there's no point at the moment as prices aren't falling - only think of some use might be tracking how long various houses have been on the market.

[darkmarket]

You can track asking price changes here:

http://home.co.uk/search

Edited February 16 by darkmarket

[Calcutta]

Remembered what I meant to say earlier...

Round here 3 bed houses were all 200k+, all being bought up for HMOs, that came to end a year or so ago. Since then asking prices have been dropping, now there are a couple of shit holes in there for 160k and a couple of pages starting at 100k but with 'guide price'. I don't really know what the point of all the guide price crap is, maybe they're getting offers over that starting point. It does always get me pretty excited seeing 3bed freehold houses at 50% reductions but I calm down and realise they're probably not going for that. 

Seemed to be a lot of movement downwards when interest rates went up, now it's levelled off 20% down, the guide prices I figure are the harbingers of the next leg down.

A lot of houses have been turned into HMOs but as early as 2021 the original HMO owners were selling up. Now some of the lowest paying jobs are fucked a lot of the worst off EEs are leaving. There's a lot of Africans turned up but they don't tend to show up in standard HMOs.

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I think the problem with this thread at the moment is everyone's area is behaving differently, no one size fits all, and lets face it, it never does.

I fully agree with posters that have replied to me saying "this is not my local experience", and I understand that.

But we must keep going to share the wider view, that's what the forum is all about.

Agreed it’s not just house prices it’s local wages vs local house prices .I did not realy start earning until June my wages are shit compared to others on here but with no debt I simply don’t care . I’m expecting a pay rise of 8% come April .another tax I don’t have is a student loan .your possably better off of young getting a minimum wage job straight from school with little responsibilities but a 4 year head start on your cohorts wage wize. A couple I honestly believe can match 2 from down south who might both earn double but are faced with buying a house that costs 3 times more . Saying that even in stoke those on 40k plus make a mystake quite often by buying houses just for a better post code but their kids still go the same school has everyone local . I’d guess I might earn 28/29k this year which ain’t that bad for reading books or playing on my phone all night .ps I did not get going until June .

[Colliedog]

Our local property auction had 9 properties in their last auction, 2 withdrawn, 6 still available and 1 sold.  Some may end up being sold post auction. This is in Yorkshire's golden triangle. Local to me 3 bed semis are selling but they have come down in price by between 5k and 30k. One estate agent has been selling probates via best and final offers.

[onlyme]

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

Just to prove I do provide a balanced opinion...this has been on the market for months. It's in a quite desirable area of Belfast but is for some reason unmortgagable. I may have posted it here before. It was sitting cash offers of £275K for a few months and is now up for auction a guide price of £250K:

https://www.propertypal.com/118a-ardenlee-avenue-belfast/931189

Similarly this repo was on for months starting at £220K and slowly dropping until now its up for auction guide price £180K:

https://www.propertypal.com/lot-8-4-ormonde-crescent-belfast/929183

 

Can't overstate that a detached bungalow though that your parents are looking for is not going to give you any steerage. Demographics and downsizing age group looking for that sort of place will have in many cases 500K + in equity from a family home in a decent area. Bungalows are generally in limited supply, they've not been built in any numbers on estates for decades now (if at all). They will pay what they have to vs the next offering couple likely to be in much the same position in terms of portable equity.

[spunko]

1 hour ago, darkmarket said:

You can track asking price changes here:

http://home.co.uk/search

Oh cheers what a great website. Search is a bit shit but it successfully tracked the neighbours price drops across multiple agents and periods off the market since 2020.

[sancho panza]

8 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

They're not real gains though are they, unless they intend to buy and live on a boat and so can now buy a bigger one.

My house is up 70% in ten years.  Every house I would consider buying is also up 70%.

I haven't actually gained anything.

When I moved in my neighbour bragged several times about having bought his house for about £8k (they had lived there since the house was built, 72 / 73), after hearing this one time too many I said to let me know when he wants to sell as I will buy his as well.

Tbf we did generally get on fairly well, though he subsequently referred to me as "that rich bastard".

I often hear this type of argument.ANd whislt it's entirely possible that your hosue has increased in value its also possible that it's jsut that you currency has devlaued.

Me and Mrs P once looked at a palce in SA after shed been saying SA hosue prices only go up.I pointed out that in dollar terms it had gone nowehre in  decade.WHich it hadnt.

AS @Bobthebuilder has said ,markets are local

here's gold

and cable

[Frank Hovis]

6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I often hear this type of argument.ANd whislt it's entirely possible that your hosue has increased in value its also possible that it's jsut that you currency has devlaued.

Me and Mrs P once looked at a palce in SA after shed been saying SA hosue prices only go up.I pointed out that in dollar terms it had gone nowehre in  decade.WHich it hadnt.

AS @Bobthebuilder has said ,markets are local

here's gold

and cable

 

Oh yes, currency devaluation drives a lot of HPI and also nominal investment gains generally.  Over the long term gold, for example, is basically static if you smooth out short term fluctuations and strip out inflation.

I noted on another thread that for all the apparent big stockmarket gains over the last five years (thinking global and primarily the US rather than the FTSE), the unidexed / real return is something like 3.5% per year.

If however you are almost entirely in cash, whether through cash savings or relying upon your cash earnings with increases not keeping up with inflation, then these nominal gain become real form your viewpoint as you are losing value to inflation across the board.

To someone with £100k cash in the bank at 2014 and earning £30k, and with similar cash and earnings now, those nominal 70% gains are real gains for them because they have lost savings and earnings value with inflation.

So that for them that is a real 70% increase.

[JoeDavola]

12 hours ago, onlyme said:

Can't overstate that a detached bungalow though that your parents are looking for is not going to give you any steerage. Demographics and downsizing age group looking for that sort of place will have in many cases 500K + in equity from a family home in a decent area.

Absolutely - not only are they looking a detached house, it needs to be in a posh enough area as far away from any working class people as possible (even though they're working class who lucked out).

They're bidding £340K for a 3 bedder but wouldn't consider living in parts of NI like this, because they might have to drive past a housing estate to get there and they couldn't bear to feel like they'd moved down the socioeconomic hierarchy by moving to a lesser town:

https://www.propertypal.com/13-downshire-road-carrickfergus/884468

So if you're chasing both a detached house and the 'right' area then they should expect to be outbid by the cash rich boomers.

Edited February 17 by JoeDavola

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Absolutely - not only are they looking a detached house, it needs to be in a posh enough area as far away from any working class people as possible (even though they're working class who lucked out).

They're bidding £340K for a 3 bedder but wouldn't consider living in parts of NI like this, because they might have to drive past a housing estate to get there and they couldn't bear to feel like they'd moved down the socioeconomic hierarchy by moving to a lesser town:

https://www.propertypal.com/13-downshire-road-carrickfergus/884468

So if you're chasing both a detached house and the 'right' area then they should expect to be outbid by the cash rich boomers.

Nice gaff.

[Frank Hovis]

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

They're bidding £340K for a 3 bedder but wouldn't consider living in parts of NI like this, because they might have to drive past a housing estate to get there and they couldn't bear to feel like they'd moved down the socioeconomic hierarchy by moving to a lesser town:

https://www.propertypal.com/13-downshire-road-carrickfergus/884468

So if you're chasing both a detached house and the 'right' area then they should expect to be outbid by the cash rich boomers.

 

I did wonder for that one what the implications of the word "chalet" are.

Does this mean non-traditional build, thin walls, poor foundations, difficult to obtain a mortgage?

It can just mean a bungalow with an upstairs but it can also mean primarily wood construction.

They don't expand but the EPC rating gives an indication where it is currently fairly low within D and only has the potential to be fairly high but still within D. This suggests to me poor insulation and little scope to do something about it.

 

[JoeDavola]

4 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

I did wonder for that one what the implications of the word "chalet" are.

Does this mean non-traditional build, thin walls, poor foundations, difficult to obtain a mortgage?

It can just mean a bungalow with an upstairs but it can also mean primarily wood construction.

They don't expand but the EPC rating gives an indication where it is currently fairly low within D and only has the potential to be fairly high but still within D. This suggests to me poor insulation and little scope to do something about it.

Well spotted Frank I hadn't seen the use of the word 'chalet' - here's another bungalow around the corner that is similar, no use of the word there:

https://www.propertypal.com/19-fairview-park-carrickfergus/837949

[Frank Hovis]

3 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Well spotted Frank I hadn't seen the use of the word 'chalet' - here's another bungalow around the corner that is similar, no use of the word there:

https://www.propertypal.com/19-fairview-park-carrickfergus/837949

 

Similar EPCs, it's not a helpful word as if I converted my loft this would become a chalet despite having traditional block construction.

[Option5]

12 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I did wonder for that one what the implications of the word "chalet" are.

Does this mean non-traditional build, thin walls, poor foundations, difficult to obtain a mortgage?

It can just mean a bungalow with an upstairs but it can also mean primarily wood construction.

They don't expand but the EPC rating gives an indication where it is currently fairly low within D and only has the potential to be fairly high but still within D. This suggests to me poor insulation and little scope to do something about it.

 

Dormer bungalows utilise what would normally be the roof space where the insulation goes as living accomodation. Hence they have less scope for increasing the insulation.

[onlyme]

2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Absolutely - not only are they looking a detached house, it needs to be in a posh enough area as far away from any working class people as possible (even though they're working class who lucked out).

They're bidding £340K for a 3 bedder but wouldn't consider living in parts of NI like this, because they might have to drive past a housing estate to get there and they couldn't bear to feel like they'd moved down the socioeconomic hierarchy by moving to a lesser town:

https://www.propertypal.com/13-downshire-road-carrickfergus/884468

So if you're chasing both a detached house and the 'right' area then they should expect to be outbid by the cash rich boomers.

That's a fair old sized property, decent front and back, more importantly looks all up toegther which is another tick in the box and not disastrous fit out/colour scheme that needs changing, move in and living in it the next day - another massive tick for the sort of monied retiree would be looking for.  Not saying it is cheap but can absolutely see why this would catch bids / premium especially if listed at keen price. Think Chalie is right in this respect if you want to sell set the price at which you get at least one but more preferably competing bidders, you'll get more as a result, pick of proceedable buyers and a quick sale.

[JoeDavola]

4 minutes ago, onlyme said:

That's a fair old sized property, decent front and back, more importantly looks all up toegther which is another tick in the box and not disastrous fit out/colour scheme that needs changing, move in and living in it the next day - another massive tick for the sort of monied retiree would be looking for.  Not saying it is cheap but can absolutely see why this would catch bids / premium especially if listed at keen price. Think Chalie is right in this respect if you want to sell set the price at which you get at least one but more preferably competing bidders, you'll get more as a result, pick of proceedable buyers and a quick sale.

Yeah its a nice house I agree.

But the folk with the money to buy £300K+ houses seem to all want to live in certain areas and this isn't one of them. So it'll sell but it'll not sell anywhere near as quickly as the stuff my parents are going to see/bidding on all of which is selling within a week of being listed.

[nirvana]

16 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

It was sitting cash offers of £275K for a few months and is now up for auction a guide price of £250K:

https://www.propertypal.com/118a-ardenlee-avenue-belfast/931189

that's in interesting looking place.....I was thinking 'big rear extension' as soon as I saw the first pic, and sure enough see what the neighbors did from the garden pic....

re 'up for auction' are you sure? this 'modern auction method' is not the same as the allsops traditional type of auction...

no experience but sounds like a con to me

edit: had a quick look at iamsold website......it's not an auction when the min bid is the inflated price that the seller wants for the place

Edited February 17 by nirvana

[JoeDavola]

3 minutes ago, nirvana said:

that's in interesting looking place.....I was thinking 'big rear extension' as soon as I saw the first pic, and sure enough see what the neighbors did from the garden pic....

re 'up for auction' are you sure? this 'modern auction method' is not the same as the allsops traditional type of auction...

no experience but sounds like a con to me

I'm just going by the fact that it says its being sold on an auction website:

https://www.iamsoldni.com/properties

https://www.iamsoldni.com/properties/16710d18a4834ffda94f0bb3b8ce9fd2.html