Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[Bus Stop Boxer]

21 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

There is a village not to far away called Winterbourne Stickland, I am convinced that is where the term "living in the sticks" comes from.

Don't tell them about Piddletrentide Pike....

[Bus Stop Boxer]

Moving home with Charlie live stream

 

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Piddletrentide

Also belch a well and stubhamton bottom Mr Mannering.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

Also belch a well and stubhamton bottom Mr Mannering.

Stopping off at Organford for lashings of ginger beer.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Stopping off at Organford for lashings of ginger beer.

There are some real 'Classics' in Suffolk:

https://www.greatbritishlife.co.uk/homes-and-gardens/places-to-live/22611536.19-funniest-street-place-names-suffolk/

...I think my favourite has to be Bell End Lane! :-)))

[sancho panza]

On 17/02/2024 at 13:41, Bobthebuilder said:

This is the sort of thing I am seeing, it is less money than a cramped new build a few miles away. One for @sancho panza top down thesis.

Equestrian facility for sale in Melbury Abbas, Shaftesbury, Dorset, SP7 (rightmove.co.uk)

I've ntoiced before that these type of places come up during times of finacial stress.Made me look at the area.some intersting moves

as Ive said before,the very wealthy are much quicker to adjsut to changing prices either up or down imho.These asking price cuts look well measured in terms of timing and searching for the bid for what are,in practial terms,less lqiuid houses

 

On 17/02/2024 at 19:26, AWW said:

I'd be quite happy to live in that and convert all the horsey shit into a workshop and storage for cars, bikes and other toys. You'd get a 1930s semi on a poor road round my way for £800k.

Had to look up Shaftesbury though. Looks like it's in the middle of nowhere.

Yeah tou could also likely find it easier to get planning for things if you're keeping naimals on site.Id love  aplce with a few hseds

Edited February 18 by sancho panza

[Bus Stop Boxer]

On 17/02/2024 at 13:41, Bobthebuilder said:

This is the sort of thing I am seeing, it is less money than a cramped new build a few miles away. One for @sancho panza top down thesis.

Equestrian facility for sale in Melbury Abbas, Shaftesbury, Dorset, SP7 (rightmove.co.uk)

At £800k that has a really bog standard living room.

Pricing in Nth Dorset once youre above £450k is all over the shop.

Obvs the equestrian element and the privacy has a bearing on this one.

 

[sancho panza]

@Bobthebuilder one in Leics and aslo @spygirlwhats the hrose indicator saying in terms of horses for sale?

horses are xpensive beasts to keep

[spunko]

Blimey, that Hazelbury Manor is English perfection.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/134070950#/?channel=RES_BUY

[onlyme]

44 minutes ago, spunko said:

Blimey, that Hazelbury Manor is English perfection.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/134070950#/?channel=RES_BUY

Good opportunity to get the most for Council tax band H.

Nice gaff, lovely location too.

[onlyme]

22 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I've ntoiced before that these type of places come up during times of finacial stress.Made me look at the area.some intersting moves

as Ive said before,the very wealthy are much quicker to adjsut to changing prices either up or down imho.These asking price cuts look well measured in terms of timing and searching for the bid for what are,in practial terms,less lqiuid houses

 

Some confirmation of the above.

Transactions I know (tiny number) about recently have been in the some ballpark as mentioned before, but much further down the valuation scale.

 

[Bus Stop Boxer]

2 hours ago, spunko said:

Blimey, that Hazelbury Manor DOSBODS retreat is English perfection.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/134070950#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

[leonardratso]

how dare they leave it empty, when theres poor migrants living on a barge and cant get a decent wifi signal, i will write immediately to my MP about this.

[spygirl]

Funny one.

Not thought out the Whys yet , beyond ZIRP makes any debt based fuckwitery look doable.

Mortgage lending to older UK borrowers slumps

Higher interest rates hit the market for the over-55s

 

https://www.ft.com/content/74c76863-9ea8-4378-904e-6db51813b6a1

Mortgage lending to older UK borrowers slumped in the last three months of 2023, as higher interest rates led to an affordability squeeze for over-55s.

The number of new mortgages taken out by older borrowers — aged over 55 — fell by 37 per cent year-on-year in October, November and December last year, according to data from trade body UK Finance. The value of this lending was £4.1bn, down 42 per cent.

Mortgages for house purchases, or remortgages, were down 21 per cent, while new lifetime, or equity release, mortgages were down 40 per cent.

 

I wish theyd provide more info - are these resi mrotgages? Or do they include IO BTL and other non resi fuckwittery???

 

Older borrowers are also cutting back on taking out mortgages for discretionary spending.

Due to high interest rates, some older borrowers are “cut out of the market completely” as they are unable to qualify for better-value loan to value offerings, according to Ray Boulger, manager at broker John Charcol.

“Maximum loan to value is quite a bit lower than two to three years ago,” he said. “Some people who could have chosen a lifetime mortgage now can’t because they don’t have enough equity.”

 

 

 

Oh oh, my fave mortgage bullshitter -

Mortgage lender Perenna, which offers rates fixed for 20 or 30 years, says the market is “fundamentally ageist”, with older borrowers suffering from limited choice when seeking a mortgage later in life.

“Concerns about mortgage affordability are particularly prevalent among later life borrowers, who often face end-of-term age-related restrictions from lenders when trying to remortgage or secure a new mortgage,” said Perenna chief executive Arjan Verbeek. “The current market, dominated by short-term fixed teaser rates, does little to support this demographic.”

 

I dont think  Perenna fully grasp banking - you lend to be paid back, with interest.

The bank does not want to selling the dead mortgagees collection of 'collectors' plates n dolls.

 

Appetite for retirement interest-only (Rios) mortgages also plummeted, with just 255 sold in the fourth quarter for a total value of £26mn — a 43.3 drop compared with the same period last year.

 

In the UK Finance figures, buy-to-let loans or remortgages were down by 53 per cent.

[spygirl]

Comments  -

Equity release works at 1%.

 

It doesn't at 6%

[spygirl]

Via Moving home with Charlies tweet  -

https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/the-rise-and-fall-of-uk-house-prices?r=1o6vt&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web#details

The widely accepted view is that houses are unaffordable because we do not build enough and this has lead to a shortage of supply. The stats I would always call on to counter this argument are that between 1997 and 2007 the housing stock grew by 10%, but the population only grew by 5%. If house prices were a function of supply and demand, they should have fallen slightly over this period. They didn’t. They rose by more than 300%. The cause of house price rises is the unrestrained supply of something else: money. Mortgage lending over the same period went up by 370%.

 

[spygirl]

On 18/02/2024 at 19:07, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Moving home with Charlie live stream

 

11.00

The case pf the buyer putting a lower offer on a house, then finding out he bank valuation comes in much lower.

This is nuts.

Banks have a valuation board with communicates guidelines on their lending levels for a local area.

The communication is via RICS valuers.

However, they normally pass on the info to other EAs, to make sure no one wastes everyone time by valuing gormlessly high.

Banks valuations should be considered the absolute maximum price.

Having an idiot EA valuing stuff higher is mental. Its really is a waste of time n eioffr and will get the local EA a bad rep.

 

 

 

[BurntBread]

44 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Via Moving home with Charlies tweet  -

https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/the-rise-and-fall-of-uk-house-prices?r=1o6vt&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web#details

The widely accepted view is that houses are unaffordable because we do not build enough and this has lead to a shortage of supply. The stats I would always call on to counter this argument are that between 1997 and 2007 the housing stock grew by 10%, but the population only grew by 5%. If house prices were a function of supply and demand, they should have fallen slightly over this period. They didn’t. They rose by more than 300%. The cause of house price rises is the unrestrained supply of something else: money. Mortgage lending over the same period went up by 370%.

 

Surely a bubble happens where plentiful credit hits a market with limited supply, so both factors are needed? Also shortage of supply can be created by other social factors than just population increase: later formation of couples, or larger houses being under-occupied due to increase in lifespan (so the mix available to younger buyers changes) could be seen as an effective reduction in supply. It's increase or reduction relative to housing needs that's important, not just bare population.

I'm not sure what your view of this post is, but do you think the population growth between 1997 and 2007 is accurate?

I do agree though -- if I'm interpreting the intent of the post correctly -- that credit was a huge (and indeed the most important) driving factor. I am guessing that Charlie is saying that higher interest rates and less access to credit will lead to house price falls now, even if no more are built?

[spygirl]

20 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

Surely a bubble happens where plentiful credit hits a market with limited supply, so both factors are needed? Also shortage of supply can be created by other social factors than just population increase: later formation of couples, or larger houses being under-occupied due to increase in lifespan (so the mix available to younger buyers changes) could be seen as an effective reduction in supply. It's increase or reduction relative to housing needs that's important, not just bare population.

I'm not sure what your view of this post is, but do you think the population growth between 1997 and 2007 is accurate?

I do agree though -- if I'm interpreting the intent of the post correctly -- that credit was a huge (and indeed the most important) driving factor. I am guessing that Charlie is saying that higher interest rates and less access to credit will lead to house price falls now, even if no more are built?

RBS balance sheet -

 

[spygirl]

21 hours ago, spygirl said:

RBS balance sheet -

 

Connected to this - 

 

FEB 20, 07:14

Barclays to return £10bn to shareholders

Oliver Ralph in London

Barclays has announced a plan to return £10bn to shareholders over the next three years as chief executive CS Venkatakrishnan attempts to revive the UK bank’s languishing share price.

The bank also said on Tuesday that it would shake up its corporate structure, with five new divisions ranging from retail banking to wealth management and investment banking.

Barclays is also planning to cut expenses, aiming for a cost to income ratio of 63 per cent this year, down from 67 per cent in 2023.

Banks make money by selling credit (debt).

Despite the spin n BS on 'help SMEs', ~80%+ of the debt banks sell is property debt - mortgages, commercial loans etc etc.

If banks, collectively, crank up their lending, as they did massively from 2002ish til 2007, when something happened ... Then the asset (housing) will go up. A lot.

Since 2007 banks have had to recapitalise i and severely crank down their leverage.

Since MMR (2014ish) resi mortgage has been on struct rules - ~20% down from buyer, 20% capitla from bank,  less than 4.5 household income after regular spend, 2+ year fix (this requires private capital to be raised, which makes it more expensive and hasle for the bank).

Banks are cranking back. Banks being shut, products being withdrawn.

The UK is seeing a massive exit of mortgage credit, the first since mortgages became mass market products sometime in the mids 70s.

[Phil]

If that’s the case going forwards, how will tarquine get his/her/them hands on the dosh when papa and mama die ?

[spygirl]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

If that’s the case going forwards, how will tarquine get his/her/them hands on the dosh when papa and mama die ?

House will clear at current market price.

 

See - 

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

House will clear at current market price.

 

See - 

 

Half price to fuck all then.

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Half price to fuck all then.

There are loads of places where, in a few years, the number of probates is going to outnumber the number of FTBs/under 40s.

The last 20 odd yeas have fuck all equity being paid off.

From late 90s til MMR, 90%+ of resi mortgages were IO.

Pretty much all BTL is IO.

Everyone is looking to repay the capital by cashing in the house.

They just cant all do that, at elast not in the ase few number of years.

 

 

 

 

 

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, spygirl said:

There are loads of places where, in a few years, the number of probates is going to outnumber the number of FTBs/under 40s.

The last 20 odd yeas have fuck all equity being paid off.

From late 90s til MMR, 90%+ of resi mortgages were IO.

Pretty much all BTL is IO.

Everyone is looking to repay the capital by cashing in the house.

They just cant all do that, at elast not in the ase few number of years.

 

 

 

 

 

I've been reading this thread for years and the way you put it kinda now makes sense. Cheers. What also ties in for me now is that's the reason for the new people. Seems the bankwankers have a plan. Shoe in along with replacement on the back of the cuntries c/c. 

I'm now having a beer tonight.