Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Plan-b]

40 minutes ago, Harley said:

Yep, best to stay away from technical analysis with these charts (TA is the study of price)!  Folk are anti TA here! 

Nah TA is great.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Mandalorian said:

To be honest, I find both buybacks and dividends irritating.

It's been a long road to get to the point where I agree.  I've done so much work in this area and put real money down on most approaches.  KISS for me.  I just want total return (e.g. accumulation fund) charts to work on that are not jerked around by ex div and the like.  Financially, I behave as if I'm in retirement and can see the potential dangers in naturally thinking div investing is the most appropriate approach, especially the way things are going.

Edited April 18 by Harley

[Harley]

27 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Tea leaves and entrails.

So never post a chart or talk about price again!  Its's all TA.  You loves just like to define (except ya don't even do that properly) a subset and shitepost about it.  So boring and intellectually tiresome rendering this thread mere (dubious) entertainment.

Edited April 18 by Harley

[Calcutta]

[Errol]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

We look (filter for) at other factors too like whether its based on a full replication, sampling, or swaps.  Also the age (over 5 years) and hedging status and currency options.  I'm a broken record but JustETF really is the go to for ETFs, subbed or not.  So many questions, etc posted here have ready answers and so very much more.  The more time you spend with it the more you get out of it.  I'm still finding new things.  I'm happy to offer support.

PS:  There are only four LA ETFs and they are all classed as EM.  It's quite a narrow area and currency controls, market access, etc for the providers to deal with.  There are however 81 EM ETFs which include various weightings to LA.

BRLA is a good non-ETF alternative.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Calcutta said:

I am the gole fren

[Harley]

53 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Is true.  However, your retail investor has a choice of whether to buy an individual stock or some kind of collective vehicle.  So comparing the outcome of sticking you money in one of the two is valid.

That was not the discussion topic.  We're too far apart in process and manner to have a meaningful conversation.  If it all works for you, fine.  Let's just leave it there and go our separate ways.

Edited April 18 by Harley

[Mandalorian]

11 minutes ago, Harley said:

So never post a chart or talk about price again!  Its's all TA.  You loves just like to define (except ya don't even do that properly) a subset and shitepost about it.  So boring and intellectually tiresome rendering this thread mere (dubious) entertainment.

There's TA and there's TA.

No issue with using it to compare the returns on two assets.

My problem with TA is when people start getting into doji candles and ichiomoku clouds with a cup and handle in a rising pennant with an inverted head and shoulder pattern nonsense.

Edited April 18 by Mandalorian

[Harley]

27 minutes ago, Errol said:

BRLA is a good non-ETF alternative.

Yes.  We use ETFs to avoid the stamp and/or other fees, especially as we vary our allocations.  Plus we need the data flow.  Then there's the different risk profiles of the instruments, not that I could say one is overall better than the other, just different, although we are thinking we maybe should diversify.

Edited April 18 by Harley

[Harley]

38 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Nah TA is great.

So not original I don't know why ya bothered.  Just silliness.  But then you loves go all grown up and are fine with this sort of thing!

Oh dear!

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

So not original I don't know why ya bothered.  Just silliness.  But then you loves go all grown up and are fine with this sort of thing!

Oh dear!

How does this help me buy high and sell low

[Plan-b]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

So not original I don't know why ya bothered.  Just silliness.  But then you loves go all grown up and are fine with this sort of thing!

Oh dear!

@Harley I actually do follow TA, to some extent, but never rely on it completely. 

[Harley]

5 minutes ago, Loki said:

How does this help me buy high and sell low

I don't think any form of studying price will help you there as you probably really shouldn't be doing that!

[Harley]

23 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

@Harley I actually do follow TA, to some extent, but never rely on it completely. 

Sorry, I'm physically tired and a bit on the spectrum or whatever to keep up with the thread twists and turns!  Pizza ovens I get, anything closer and......!  Plus I have invested in these topics (the whole integrated thing, not just TA) from Uni onwards.

Everything in moderation.  It's just people saying TA is bad is like saying food is bad.  There's a far more grown up, nuanced, and beneficial conversation to be had.  But it never happens. 

And I reckon that's 'cause people don't want the brain ache or don't have the required temperament (Mr Market sucks in all types!).  Fine if they're just playing with some play money, else FFS, be professional or hire one.

The most addictive part about studying the markets is to realise it's really about the study of human frailties, as we have seen tonight.  Truth is it's a temptress of a Gordian knot.

The lucky are the ones who avoid the rocks long enough to drop their delusions and give themselves up to the mere probabilistic series of events it is.

Edited April 18 by Harley

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

be professional or hire one.

In my line of work I can't get away with saying "LOL ur building might catch fire LMAO" but anything financial seems to be very much "No refunds" based.  Nice work if you can get it

I might as well just do it myself, and hold myself accountable - that's one more person than I can hold accountable with a pro

[Harley]

56 minutes ago, Loki said:

In my line of work I can't get away with saying "LOL ur building might catch fire LMAO" but anything financial seems to be very much "No refunds" based.  Nice work if you can get it

I might as well just do it myself, and hold myself accountable - that's one more person than I can hold accountable with a pro

Talking to a friend today who's been to see several financial advisors.  Very interested to hear what they had to say.  There clearly was a benefit in those who knew the ins and outs of the rules, possibilities, etc for those where such stuff was relevant.

None of the tax stuff was new to me and the rest (e.g. planning) was not rocket science but probably would be to many others so fair enough.  But then they are not fund managers, traders, etc so that's another lot.  Nice if you've got most of the rare skill set and unique opportunity to do the full end to end.  I wouldn't want to be a standard FA though.

There is a real danger with DIY in not knowing what you should know on a wide range of topics.  Maybe though things are pretty straightforward for most folk, although reading the pension pages in The Telegraph had me a tad worried (both the mistakes people apparently make, and the mistakes the journalists made!).

Edited April 18 by Harley

[wherebee]

45 minutes ago, Harley said:

The most addictive part about studying the markets is to realise it's really about the study of human frailties, as we have seen tonight.  Truth is it's a temptress of a Gordian knot.

 

This.

The only way, in my view, that retail investors can make money is by spotting the delusion of crowds and betting against it at the right point.  professional technical analysis of companies, and speed of trading, along with insider dealing, means that value investing is a bum rush if you're not on the inside with blackrock, JP morgan, etc.  

For me, that means investing in 'hated' areas, as @DurhamBorn calls them, is the only way to make money which will outperform a tracker.  A tracker is fine if you don't want to have your own views on reality, and many don't - in which case, @Mandalorian is on the money that drip feeding into trackers is going to make you more over the long term than any fancy technical analysis or company deep dives.

And sometimes despite being right about hated stocks, you'll still be fucked over by the system - POLY for example, I was right on the long term value, but was utterly fucked over by the broker and regulatory system.

My investment approach is still: find something people hate because they are unthinking sheep (oil/coal/etc), find it as a price which makes sense today, and wait for reality to come knocking.  Uranium is one such example - toxic here in Australia, many superfunds won't invest in Australian Uranium miners, been a cross party agreement on no nuclear for 20+ years.... and this year the liberals said nuclear is the future.  I've already doubled my holdings on Uranium miners for free by trading in and out, and in time it will, I think, outperform any tracker.

TL:DR - bet against the idiots who believe the politicians and media

[montecristo]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Talking to a friend today who's been to see several financial advisors.  Very interested to hear what they had to say.  There clearly was a benefit in those who knew the ins and outs of the rules, possibilities, etc for those where such stuff was relevant.

None of the tax stuff was new to me and the rest (e.g. planning) was not rocket science but probably would be to many others so fair enough.  But then they are not fund managers, traders, etc so that's another lot.  Nice if you've got most of the rare skill set and unique opportunity to do the full end to end.  I wouldn't want to be a standard FA though.

There is a real danger with DIY in not knowing what you should know on a wide range of topics.  Maybe though things are pretty straightforward for most folk, although reading the pension pages in The Telegraph had me a tad worried (both the mistakes people apparently make, and the mistakes the journalists made!).

How much would that have cost?  If your friend just stuck his money in a S&P ETF  he would be quid's up and saved financial advice fees. 

 

[leonardratso]

games back on, couldnt sleep so had a quick look online.

[Lightscribe]

3 hours ago, wherebee said:

My investment approach is still: find something people hate because they are unthinking sheep (oil/coal/etc), find it as a price which makes sense today, and wait for reality to come knocking.  Uranium is one such example - toxic here in Australia, many superfunds won't invest in Australian Uranium miners, been a cross party agreement on no nuclear for 20+ years.... and this year the liberals said nuclear is the future.  I've already doubled my holdings on Uranium miners for free by trading in and out, and in time it will, I think, outperform any tracker.

TL:DR - bet against the idiots who believe the politicians and media

Case in point, simple really, cylindricals are cylindricals. I’ve been in passive 100% equity tracker for more than a decade when QE was abound and ever lasting lower interest rates were being cut. Where else would you be? Remember the commodities trader scene in the self help therapy group in the Big Short. Ever cheaper money and debt made commodities irrelevant.

But these last 4 years were entirely different. I’ve been in postash, oil, tobacco, gas, coal, energy companies, gold miners and out again. Missed out on tops like postash but 100%ers were enough for me. Inflation comes in waves so move with them accordingly. I’ve been very heavy in PM miners since the end of last year, hit some bottoms which was the aim for this next stage.

My partners portfolio is now 150% (dividends reinvested) up in 4 years. (I’m lagging that in mine due to me always moving first in mine, then tagging further bottoms in hers)

The average return in comparison 

 

That’s without the PM bull run we’re currently facing when this stock market correction takes hold when western money starts coming running. War escalation has a habit of doing that.

Once this second inflation wave is dealt with, (one way or another whatever is left the other side) I’ll be all in a global diversified Vanguard passive once more.

No need for shorter term TA for me (like when I used to trade crypto), because I’m riding the cycle, you could get caught out shorter term in the riptide.

No secret to it, I’ve mentioned on here the exact points on here when i’ve bought and sold.

So far that’s working fine for me.

Edited April 19 by Lightscribe

[Lightscribe]

28 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

games back on, couldnt sleep so had a quick look online.

Yup

[leonardratso]

hmm not much jumping going on, must be some low grade missiles.

[leonardratso]

shows over, BAU.

[Harley]

4 hours ago, montecristo said:

How much would that have cost?  If your friend just stuck his money in a S&P ETF  he would be quid's up and saved financial advice fees. 

 

FFS, you don't know his situation, etc so pure speculation on your part.

[Pip321]

Are we still on with tracker/passive v active investment?

Passive investments have done well and are easy for retail Joe Public….and that might be the case in the future but today, right now I am watching a world madness because it feels like we have inflated assets and whether they pop or are slowly deflated I want to beat the markets during that process because otherwise it feels like it’s going to be very costly. 

If the is thread was called ‘a helpful guide to creating wealth over a lifetime’ then the advice for a 22 year old might be to drip feed into the stock market in a well balanced portfolio over 45 years….retire, enjoy 15 years, get old and die.

Buts it’s not that……this is about it potentially being 1928, the shoe shine boy has just given his stockbroker a share tip and things don’t feel right. The thread is like it’s 1928 and someone is tapping you on the shoulder and offering a bit of a heads up saying ‘wow these good times don’t feel right and then suggesting what might happen in the relatively near future’.

Now often contrarians never feel things are right….but anyone ignoring what’s going on today is a braver man than me. Provoked wars, huge debts, eye watering deficits, unaffordable houses, 700k immigrants last year to fiddle the GDP, only 0.6% of GDP being agriculture against 10% of imputed rents, 50% of people not working, unelected PMs, corrupt politicians……and the media just reporting on misuse of pronouns. 

Daft things about value, bubbles and money…..a tiny $14 bn US company being bought by a Japanese company being reviewed by their government because it presents a risk. US steel if that important surely should be valued at more than $14bn with Microsoft worth $3,000 billion  

This isn’t about where to invest in 20 years time, it isn’t about what has been the best approach over certain periods in the past……. this is suggesting we are at a turning point, things not being right, mainly printing and debt at unprecedented levels. 

After any collapse/slow erosion of wealth….. then I will review the approach. 😉