Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[janch]

6 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

We still see a coal lorry making regular deliveries around here.

I bought a Victorian house in 1980 with my ex which had a coal shute in the front path which went down into a cellar.  Obviously it was not a common thing then but the house had hardly been touched since it was built.  We decided to keep it and used it for several years with a solid fuel Parkray in the kitchen which also heated the water and radiators.  So the coal lorry would deliver coal in the autumn and we had a supply for the winter.  The men would unload the sacks of coal and tip them down the coal hole.

Many people thought we were mad but it hadn't been that long since the strikes and power blackouts in the 70s and we liked the idea of being as self-sufficient as possible.  It was quite a lot of work especially if the Parkray went out overnight and needed to be re-lit before you could do anything else especially as the kids were babies and toddlers at the time.

[Errol]

2 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

ITKY is one of my real winners and I'm up a lot. Considering some more now it's the new ISA year.

How do people feel about Turkey? Or Türkiye as it has now been rebranded.

I always thought it was a shithole until I went there and it's actually very nice. The currency seems to have stabilised after a long period of continuously losing value.

Very interesting op-ed about where the country is going in the near future (basically stay in NATO and West - or not.)

https://www.rt.com/news/597055-turkish-patriots-influence-nato-us/

or
https://swentr.site/news/597055-turkish-patriots-influence-nato-us/

It should remain the middle-ground between East and West - doing business with both equally. That's what they will do if they have any sense.

[sancho panza]

22 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

That's spot on.

The Tories are hopefully going to be destroyed, but Reform aren't the answer. Tice is utterly useless as a leader and, as you mentioned, they have absolutely zero grassroots presence and no philosophical/ideological underpinnings and it's all by design.

In a previous life I was quite connected in both Zanu Tory and then Ukip in the decade to Brexit vote.

Reform have a lot of the same personalities in as Ukip did and prob similar in number of activists.Having said that,with any small partyy it's hard to attract quality activists with genuine politcal skills-capable of facing hostile media/debate, organising and administering campaigning and fielding of candidates.

Tice seems to live in fear of hate not hope which appears to be some sort of marxist pressure group as he's canned a few candidates I believe(incl our local lady(the only person to deliver a leaflet).

Post farage Ukip was always going to struggle as they jsut didn't have a decent second tier of candidates to pick a leader from.They're results post farage speak for tehmselves.

I think Refom have the same Farage problem ie with him they'll poll strongly and will suck in activists .Without him,they'll do ok on the surface but underneath the bonnet,they'll be struggling to maiantin their presence if a seriously right wing party starts gaining momentum.

 

4 hours ago, AWW said:

The results say otherwise. The Tory candidate's campaign leaned heavily on scrapping ULEZ and she managed to lose vote share.

I think london is changing demogrpahically.Shes lsot a few %age points,I dint see any major clangers in her campaign and she maybe wasnt as engaigng as Shaun Bailey..Interesting to see the Green vote moving up.

I have heard from Leicester connections that there are some efforts to form a breakaway from Labour and some attempts to usneat people like Johnathon Ashworth because he's not pro Palestine enough.

ref the candidates you met,the sort of people willing to doorstep tend to have a big issue theyre campaigning on.doorstepping got harder work over the years I was involved and some helpers jsut got such a grilling they never came back.

Pound for pound,doorstepping/leaflets pay a poor return in terms of effort/reward imho

 

 

2 hours ago, belfastchild said:

Ive a uni mate who is proper Scots Nat. From Inverness direction, has always been scots nat. I do ask what the fuck is going on over there in the last few years but he wont say anything. I only really twigged recently as Id forgotten that the SNP had been in coalition with the Greens. So there you have it, probably a lot of the bonkers thinking is coming direct from the Greens.

I dont know if we've had this clip yet but worth watching to see the slight unease on the face of the white bloke behind the new leeds city councillor chanting Allahu......you join the greesn to campaign for climate change,do a decade of graft and then in one moment,you suddenly realise the ships captain has changed course to the arctic and noone told you

funny watching a party as woke and progressive as the greens getting taken over by a movement that couldn't be more socially unprogressive.

 

Edited May 7 by sancho panza

[Mandalorian]

4 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

It also depends if you are getting a mortgage - above about age 45 every year you wait is one less year you have on the repayment term. I think that large drops in prices can only occur if we have a severe cyclical recession but TPTB seem to be doing everything they can to keep the plates spinning.  

Mortgage?  no bloody chance!

[Pip321]

4 hours ago, wherebee said:

tasmania has weather the same as the UK, with the added advantage everything is stuck in the 1970s.

 

4 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

The 1970's bit appeals. Bit like the village we live in currently. We still see a coal lorry making regular deliveries around here.

Fuck me, 1970's....I live in North Yorkshire and we still eat coal and have no shoes....you posh bastards.😉

Have to admit from a tourist viewpoint (i.e. I haven't done mass research on countries economies for locals) its Italy/Tuscany or Australia/Sydney. 

But like DB my family keep me here so I live as best I can in the UK and North Yorks can be very pleasant. 

 

[Onsamui]

1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

ITKY is one of my real winners and I'm up a lot. Considering some more now it's the new ISA year.

How do people feel about Turkey? Or Türkiye as it has now been rebranded.

I always thought it was a shithole until I went there and it's actually very nice. The currency seems to have stabilised after a long period of continuously losing value.

Very interesting op-ed about where the country is going in the near future (basically stay in NATO and West - or not.)

https://www.rt.com/news/597055-turkish-patriots-influence-nato-us/

or
https://swentr.site/news/597055-turkish-patriots-influence-nato-us/

We frequent Turkey a lot (had a villa there a few years' ago), going for full 90 days this  year in two tranches.  We know lots of expats and turks, bar owners, restaurants owners, bankers (we have investments there), estate agents (one of which said to us last year around September, don't buy yet, bubble is due to pop).  We are not sure about buying again as it is a right 'faf' but when we had residency for a few years it was great for coming and going when we wanted and for however long we wanted.  Turks are great, generous, except where money is involved.

Edited May 7 by Onsamui

[goldbug9999]

On 06/05/2024 at 11:13, Axeman123 said:

Thats the thing IMO we should all be wary of. The widespread public anger about how fucked things are will be redirected by those that have caused this mess to benefit themselves, and ironically to prop up continuing all the actions that have fucked things up.

Thats right, the "rich" will be demonised. But wont be the actual rich who they come after will be us - normal people with saving and investments.

[sancho panza]

from yesterday.

min wage up ahead of CPI,job numbers down.its not rocket science is it?

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/employers-cutting-hours-hiring-less-121305588.html

Employers ‘cutting hours and hiring less to offset minimum wage rise’

James Reed, chief executive of Reed, said April’s 9.8pc increase in minimum wage was already being reflected in hiring patterns.

The National Living wage rose from £10.42 to £11.44 last month, while workers under the age of 21 and apprentices were given even larger boosts in relative terms.

He warned the mandatory pay increase was coming at a time when companies were also dealing with broader inflationary pressures.

Mr Reed said: “My worry is that if those minimum wage level or entry level jobs are too highly priced, that will just lead to them being replaced by technology.”

His warning comes after defence giant BAE Systems recently revealed it was using robot welders to overcome difficulties in hiring enough steel workers in Glasgow.

Job adverts for roles in IT and telecoms have recently fallen by 36pc on Reed platforms, a fall dwarfed only by the 44pc contraction in recruitment roles.

These sectors are traditionally vulnerable to higher interest rates, but the recruitment chief said he believed automation had contributed to a hiring downturn in tech.

[sancho panza]

Following on from coffee shop discussion ref falling revenues,rising wages.commodity cost look likely to rise as well

 

[goldbug9999]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

from yesterday.

min wage up ahead of CPI,job numbers down.its not rocket science is it?

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/employers-cutting-hours-hiring-less-121305588.html

Employers ‘cutting hours and hiring less to offset minimum wage rise’

James Reed, chief executive of Reed, said April’s 9.8pc increase in minimum wage was already being reflected in hiring patterns.

The National Living wage rose from £10.42 to £11.44 last month, while workers under the age of 21 and apprentices were given even larger boosts in relative terms.

He warned the mandatory pay increase was coming at a time when companies were also dealing with broader inflationary pressures.

Mr Reed said: “My worry is that if those minimum wage level or entry level jobs are too highly priced, that will just lead to them being replaced by technology.”

His warning comes after defence giant BAE Systems recently revealed it was using robot welders to overcome difficulties in hiring enough steel workers in Glasgow.

Job adverts for roles in IT and telecoms have recently fallen by 36pc on Reed platforms, a fall dwarfed only by the 44pc contraction in recruitment roles.

These sectors are traditionally vulnerable to higher interest rates, but the recruitment chief said he believed automation had contributed to a hiring downturn in tech.

Its not automation, IT vacancies are usually the canary in the coal mine economically, it means that companies are not starting new projects and generally belt tightening.

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

I’ve said this before ….

“The yield curve has been inverted now for over 500 days ”. 

This has only happened three times in the past century, in 1929, 1974, and 2009, and that each time the market fell more than 50 percent.

Just saying. 

Have you sold all your share holdings recently, by any chance?

[Harley]

@sancho panza have you been watching the agchem companies (MOS, YARA, etc) the last few days?

Edited May 7 by Harley

[Bien Pensant]

15 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

It then becomes something else, a means of power and control. Its too trite to say it is simply evidence of debt.

I dunno, would you say that, for example, a gambling debt that a loan-shark uses against someone has magically become another species of thing?

TBH, I'd say that allowing those who issue it to claim that money is something transcendental and unknowable, as opposed to merely debt, is what actually gives them the "power and control".

[sleepwello'nights]

28 minutes ago, Bien Pensant said:

I dunno, would you say that, for example, a gambling debt that a loan-shark uses against someone has magically become another species of thing?

 

Please explain how the small debt of someone who died long ago in the past enables someone in government to order the killing of hundreds of other people?

[Joncrete Cungle]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

@sancho panza have you been watching the agchem companies (MOS, YARA, etc) the last few days?

I have been tempted into a small first ladder back into Yara...

[Funn3r]

I'm surprised at all the discussion of "what actually is money?"

Surely anything is money. When I was a kid working class people who could not afford to gamble used to play cards for matchsticks. People have had stones with holes in, funny-looking seashells, dolphin teeth. I've heard that pot noodles are used as currency in prisons.

All that matters is that 

1. Everyone agrees that the special stones or whatever are money. No good being a seashell millionaire if everyone believes that money is special stones. Vice versa.
    
2. There is some sort of restriction and difficulty in being able to get new ones - you can't have something where people can just add as many as they like if they are running short.
    

It's for keeping score. Anything will do.  

[Shamone]

6 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

I have been tempted into a small first ladder back into Yara...

me too

[Bien Pensant]

13 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Please explain how the small debt of someone who died long ago in the past enables someone in government to order the killing of hundreds of other people?

I'm not sure I take your meaning but it's their debt now and they can buy whatever they want with it.

A long, but not that long, time ago, people used to take debts that others owed them to banks to be 'factored', i.e. to be exchanged for the bank's own debt at a discount.

Then the state decided that it would be an awfully good idea if local banks were banned from issuing their own banknotes - i.e. the evidence of debt - and had to, instead, issue notes from a central bank, their bank, which they could order to simply give them more notes to spend as they wished. They also declared these notes to be 'legal tender' and so people had to accept them in satisfaction of debt.

The principle is similar, although not identical, with coins where the analogue of 'factoring' is called 'seigniorage'.

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Bien Pensant said:

I'm not sure I take your meaning but it's their debt now and they can buy whatever they want with it.

A long, but not that long, time ago, people used to take debts that others owed them to banks to be 'factored', i.e. to be exchanged for the bank's own debt at a discount.

Then the state decided that it would be an awfully good idea if local banks were banned from issuing their own banknotes - i.e. the evidence of debt - and had to, instead, issue notes from a central bank, their bank, which they could order to simply give them more notes to spend as they wished. They also declared these notes to be 'legal tender' and so people had to accept them in satisfaction of debt.

The principle is similar, although not identical, with coins where the analogue of 'factoring' is called 'seigniorage'.

The other driver for 'what is money' is whatever the state demands payment in for taxes.  If you look at colonisation in the 19th and early 20th century, one well documented way of building complete control once you beat the existing king/prince was to demand taxes in your currency (silver coin, etc).  That meant everyone needed to get your currency, and would trade away their other assets to get the coinage the taxman recognised.

 

[Bien Pensant]

4 minutes ago, wherebee said:

The other driver for 'what is money' is whatever the state demands payment in for taxes.  If you look at colonisation in the 19th and early 20th century, one well documented way of building complete control once you beat the existing king/prince was to demand taxes in your currency (silver coin, etc).  That meant everyone needed to get your currency, and would trade away their other assets to get the coinage the taxman recognised.

Indeed, one could characterise the particular form of debt that is money as one that has been suborned by the state and used as an instrument of coercion by them.

However, I think it's important to emphasise that 'money', as a medium of exchange, is actually created by individuals and has existed without state interference.

Otherwise, one runs the risk of accepting the thieves' paradigm that their extortion racket is a necessary evil.

[wherebee]

Just now, Bien Pensant said:

Indeed, one could characterise the particular form of debt that is money as one that has been suborned by the state and used as an instrument of coercion by them.

However, I think it's important to emphasise that 'money', as a medium of exchange, is actually created by individuals and has existed without state interference.

Otherwise, one runs the risk of accepting the thieves' paradigm that their extortion racket is a necessary evil.

oh I agree, money is first created by individuals; however in any human society worthy of the name, taxation determines what is 'money' pretty bloody fast.  Trying paying your council tax in apples from your garden.

[Bien Pensant]

12 minutes ago, wherebee said:

oh I agree, money is first created by individuals; however in any human society worthy of the name, taxation determines what is 'money' pretty bloody fast.  Trying paying your council tax in apples from your garden.

No doubt.

But, many people actually take the above as evidence that money is created by the state and that it must, therefore, be something other than debt that has to be repaid by the inspiration and perspiration of individuals.

IMO, the distinction is important and far from merely academic because one has to understand what money is in order to use it properly and to avoid falling for sophistries, such as "MMT", which is really just fraud.

It puts me in mind of something Rand said about economists always trying to remove the most important factor in any economy - the individuals within it, their motivations and capabilities - because they're too hard to model and often politically inconvenient, IIRC (it's in Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal but it's been a while since I read it).

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I'm surprised at all the discussion of "what actually is money?"

Yes.  The initial discussion was more interestingly about value and  money's role.

Edited May 8 by Harley

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

I have been tempted into a small first ladder back into Yara...

Clarkson's Farm is back on.  A depressing edge to it this time.  And highlighting fertiliser costs and alternatives.

[sleepwello'nights]

4 hours ago, Bien Pensant said:

 

However, I think it's important to emphasise that 'money', as a medium of exchange, is actually created by individuals and has existed without state interference.

 

If one accepts that view then it should be that the debt is extinguished when the individual dies. Control of the assets that they have acquired during their lifetime can be passed on to whoever the individual decided but the debts owed to him can no longer be settled.