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sancho panza

The Big Short Thread

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10 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Its mad its approaching the market value of volkswagon who sell something like 25 times more cars, utter madness

Remember this feeling and bottle it for next time.My experience in the 2000 bubble was incredible.I was buying tech stocks in the 90's by pure chance as I subscribed to a newsletter called Techinvest and I reasoned as a sector it had long term growth.The bubble happened and I remember having friends who knew zip about stocks tyelling me scoot.com were gonna be a tenner by Christmas etc etc etc.Madness gripped everyone.

Whilst I didn't know much I knew it wasn't right and my Grandad was saying look at Halifax, ook at BHP, Gencor, Billiotn etc,all dirt cheap.I sold too early and missed the peak.Year or two later all the people who used to go to the bank to look at share prices(it was as the internet was coming of age) basically lost everything.Some of the guys there-when I was selling-laughed at me,told me I knew squat and scoot.com was really gonna be twenty quid by Christmas.

It was an amazing expereince.

At the time,real businesses with real earnings were going cheap.

Let's look at some charts

FTSE peak Dec99

BHP was £3.54 Dec 99

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scoot.co.uk

Scoot is a United Kingdom business directory website. It was one of the highest profile casualties of the rise and fall of internet companies during the internet boom at the beginning of the 21st century falling from a value of £2.5 billion in 2000 to £5 million in 2002.

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10 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

There is a bit of an uprising of loss-making zombies last few days.  Lyft, Uber, Beyond Meat.  Have they become profitable all of a sudden?  Just joking - of course not.

This is the problem with shorting.The guyswho can move markets can get a squeeze going and position themselves long on a stock known as a hot short.

At some point,I think TSLA will be worth a lot less per share.But a lot of us are going to lose money on that.Market is well overdue a correction but momentum is nearly everything these days ,until of course,it isn't.

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3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Remember this feeling and bottle it for next time.My experience in the 2000 bubble was incredible.I was buying tech stocks in the 90's by pure chance as I subscribed to a newsletter called Techinvest and I reasoned as a sector it had long term growth.The bubble happened and I remember having friends who knew zip about stocks tyelling me scoot.com were gonna be a tenner by Christmas etc etc etc.Madness gripped everyone.

Whilst I didn't know much I knew it wasn't right and my Grandad was saying look at Halifax, ook at BHP, Gencor, Billiotn etc,all dirt cheap.I sold too early and missed the peak.Year or two later all the people who used to go to the bank to look at share prices(it was as the internet was coming of age) basically lost everything.Some of the guys there-when I was selling-laughed at me,told me I knew squat and scoot.com was really gonna be twenty quid by Christmas.

It was an amazing expereince.

At the time,real businesses with real earnings were going cheap.

Let's look at some charts

FTSE peak Dec99

BHP was £3.54 Dec 99

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scoot.co.uk

Scoot is a United Kingdom business directory website. It was one of the highest profile casualties of the rise and fall of internet companies during the internet boom at the beginning of the 21st century falling from a value of £2.5 billion in 2000 to £5 million in 2002.

 

 

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I was young back then and was bewildered by it all was utter madness and what we see today with the likes of Lyft, Uber, Tesla is the same madness

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10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Remember this feeling and bottle it for next time.My experience in the 2000 bubble was incredible

I wish i could have experienced the General mood at that time. I was more interested in a acquiring booze and PlayStation games than pets.com shares

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On 15/01/2020 at 09:54, sancho panza said:

Remember this feeling and bottle it for next time.My experience in the 2000 bubble was incredible.I was buying tech stocks in the 90's by pure chance as I subscribed to a newsletter called Techinvest and I reasoned as a sector it had long term growth.The bubble happened and I remember having friends who knew zip about stocks tyelling me scoot.com were gonna be a tenner by Christmas etc etc etc.Madness gripped everyone.

Whilst I didn't know much I knew it wasn't right and my Grandad was saying look at Halifax, ook at BHP, Gencor, Billiotn etc,all dirt cheap.I sold too early and missed the peak.Year or two later all the people who used to go to the bank to look at share prices(it was as the internet was coming of age) basically lost everything.Some of the guys there-when I was selling-laughed at me,told me I knew squat and scoot.com was really gonna be twenty quid by Christmas.

It was an amazing expereince.

At the time,real businesses with real earnings were going cheap.

Let's look at some charts

FTSE peak Dec99

BHP was £3.54 Dec 99

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scoot.co.uk

Scoot is a United Kingdom business directory website. It was one of the highest profile casualties of the rise and fall of internet companies during the internet boom at the beginning of the 21st century falling from a value of £2.5 billion in 2000 to £5 million in 2002.

 

 

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I never got involved in the madness at the turn of the century, as I have a rule of not investing in anything that I don't understand - certainly I could not understand the valuations of most tech companies at the time! Of course, this was a source of much amusement of friends who were going in balls-deep, believing in the new paradigm etc. I even met one guy who had taken out every credit card he could, maxed out every one by withdrawing cash, just to buy tech shares. I think he did himself in.

Needless to say, when the crash came, the subject was quietly dropped.

Things do seem to be different this time; ironically I think that it is, at least in part, thanks to the use of technology itself in modern trading that is sustaining what I consider to be fantasy valuations of tech companies today. Of course, at some point it is going to get really ugly, but, as SP states, a lot of people are going to make a lot of money beforehand, as well as afterwards.

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1 hour ago, Ponty Mython said:

 the use of technology itself in modern trading that is sustaining what I consider to be fantasy valuations of tech companies today.

Plate spinning machines. xD

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6 hours ago, Ponty Mython said:

I never got involved in the madness at the turn of the century, as I have a rule of not investing in anything that I don't understand - certainly I could not understand the valuations of most tech companies at the time! Of course, this was a source of much amusement of friends who were going in balls-deep, believing in the new paradigm etc. I even met one guy who had taken out every credit card he could, maxed out every one by withdrawing cash, just to buy tech shares. I think he did himself in.

Needless to say, when the crash came, the subject was quietly dropped.

Things do seem to be different this time; ironically I think that it is, at least in part, thanks to the use of technology itself in modern trading that is sustaining what I consider to be fantasy valuations of tech companies today. Of course, at some point it is going to get really ugly, but, as SP states, a lot of people are going to make a lot of money beforehand, as well as afterwards.

Hot money has aslo flowed in property in the West.You look at the valuations of Apple,Facebook,Google and they run alongside the valuations we see for housing here.

But as someone who's seena few exponential phases in his time,I'm beginning to feel the insanity in the stock market trumps the insanity in the housing market bubble wise.

I shut down my last few trades on the short side at a small profit.Goiing to wait for a re entry point.

 

 

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16 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I shut down my last few trades on the short side at a small profit.Goiing to wait for a re entry point.

According to Max Keiser short selling is no longer "a thing" as the FED don't allow anything to go downO.o

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30 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

Latest thoughts on Tesla?

Glad I was too much of a coward to open a short after Musk's "funding secured" tweet; looks like the cunt has got away with it, at least for now...

I think its nuts -with the caveat that if it continues to scale up then it might be a contender.

What I find incredible about Tesla is the timescale.

Founded in 2003, at a time when the big car companies were droning on about this that, getting margins, doing this, that.

Its only since 2013 that it started to grow - 7 fucking years.

Thats the time it takes someone like Ford or GM to knock out a new model that looks and performs like all their older fucking cars.

I dont know if Tesla deserves to win- whatever that is.

I do kn ow that the big car companies have sat around on their arse and pissed away billions of management with nothing to show for it.

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, Ponty Mython said:

Latest thoughts on Tesla?

Glad I was too much of a coward to open a short after Musk's "funding secured" tweet; looks like the cunt has got away with it, at least for now...

It'll be worth next to nothing in a year or two.But irrational,longer,solvent etc etc

The ride over the last two months is what bul market peakjs are about and I speak with some experince as I got stopped out of the trade a few times,only to watch it ramp some more.

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16 hours ago, Ponty Mython said:

Latest thoughts on Tesla?

Glad I was too much of a coward to open a short after Musk's "funding secured" tweet; looks like the cunt has got away with it, at least for now...

 

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

It'll be worth next to nothing in a year or two.But irrational,longer,solvent etc etc

The ride over the last two months is what bul market peakjs are about and I speak with some experince as I got stopped out of the trade a few times,only to watch it ramp some more.

HODLing my short like bitcoin!  Too scared for the second ladder at the moment though.  Pleased I got out of S&P500 short on a dip.  BYND is starting to look interesting again?

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10 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

 

HODLing my short like bitcoin!  Too scared for the second ladder at the moment though.  Pleased I got out of S&P500 short on a dip.  BYND is starting to look interesting again?

I'm tyotally out of all shorts as of atwo weeks back or so.I pulled of BDEV/BKGH at a profit and cut my losses on TSLA at $520 or so.

 

Them's the breaks.The market jsut suddenly had a feel of 2000/1 about it.I'm going to look to reshort around the March timeframe.BKGH at £54 is surreal.Pidgeley has been selling since £37 iirc.

Part of good trading is taking your losses and accepting you were jsut plain worng over the timefraem.Doesn't mean you won't be right over a different timeframe.

I'm looking at some put action in the options marekt.I'm not going to have time to monitor a short term trading book over next few months due to studying.

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12 hours ago, sancho panza said:

It'll be worth next to nothing in a year or two.But irrational,longer,solvent etc etc

The ride over the last two months is what bul market peakjs are about and I speak with some experince as I got stopped out of the trade a few times,only to watch it ramp some more.

It really feels like we are not that far away from a recession, and when that comes and sales growth goes in reverse and Tesla racks up a couple of huge quarterly losses I guess there will be an epic fall in shareprice as the growth story goes away

Ultimately it is a car company and should be measured on the usual PE multiples that car companies are priced on

I think the other car manufacturers are pulling their fingers out now and competition is ramping up, Tesla may be the front runner but the big boys with their deep pockets will catch up now they are shaken out of their slumber

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29 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

It really feels like we are not that far away from a recession, and when that comes and sales growth goes in reverse and Tesla racks up a couple of huge quarterly losses I guess there will be an epic fall in shareprice as the growth story goes away

Ultimately it is a car company and should be measured on the usual PE multiples that car companies are priced on

I think the other car manufacturers are pulling their fingers out now and competition is ramping up, Tesla may be the front runner but the big boys with their deep pockets will catch up now they are shaken out of their slumber

Exactly.

 

It's a car company that sells a lot less cars than other car companies.

Edited by sancho panza

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5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Exactly.

 

It's a car company that sells a lot less cars than other car companies.

Right, I have got to get a short on Tesla, even this madness must have an end - look at that chart over the last 6 months - why?!

Apologies for the laziness, but what is the easiest mechanism to get in on the act please?

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6 hours ago, Ponty Mython said:

Right, I have got to get a short on Tesla, even this madness must have an end - look at that chart over the last 6 months - why?!

Apologies for the laziness, but what is the easiest mechanism to get in on the act please?

I did via CFD account on trading 212

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TSLA has the might of the Fed behind it to keep it propped up

It's a new take on GM being a pension company that also makes cars

Tesla is a stock market prop that also sells cars.

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On 14/01/2020 at 23:21, Talking Monkey said:

Its mad its approaching the market value of volkswagon who sell something like 25 times more cars, utter madness

Not looked, but would have thought  VW would have sold more like 250 times more than Tesla.

Tesla is certainly enjoying a large renewal in interest in the used car market, with residual values strengthening massively in the last few weeks. Not sure why exactly, but it is coinciding with the increasing share price.

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5 hours ago, Shaneyson said:

Not looked, but would have thought  VW would have sold more like 250 times more than Tesla.

Tesla is certainly enjoying a large renewal in interest in the used car market, with residual values strengthening massively in the last few weeks. Not sure why exactly, but it is coinciding with the increasing share price.

Climate change. 

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Chinese markets are opening after this week's CNY celebrations sick leave.  I have little doubt there will be a plunge and they will take the rest with them.  Anyone planning to short?  I am considering a small position but it should probably be a quite large one as most of my DC funds are in FTSE100.

Another question is what should the limit be?  Will they drop by 3% immediately? 5? 10?  Is there any pre-market data for Hong Kong for example (no Shanghai CFD on 212 trading app)

Edited by Bear Hug

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On 24/01/2020 at 23:02, Loki said:

TSLA has the might of the Fed behind it to keep it propped up

It's a new take on GM being a pension company that also makes cars

Tesla is a stock market prop that also sells cars.

Tesla's share price is completely disconnected from reality, when it finally does reconnect with reality that it is a car company selling far fewer cars than the major manufacturers and that huge competition in electric cars is coming from the rest of the industry, then at that point I would expect some fairly substantial falls. Its currently being treated as a hypergrowth company when it is not at all

 

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