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sancho panza

The Big Short Thread

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10 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Its mad its approaching the market value of volkswagon who sell something like 25 times more cars, utter madness

Remember this feeling and bottle it for next time.My experience in the 2000 bubble was incredible.I was buying tech stocks in the 90's by pure chance as I subscribed to a newsletter called Techinvest and I reasoned as a sector it had long term growth.The bubble happened and I remember having friends who knew zip about stocks tyelling me scoot.com were gonna be a tenner by Christmas etc etc etc.Madness gripped everyone.

Whilst I didn't know much I knew it wasn't right and my Grandad was saying look at Halifax, ook at BHP, Gencor, Billiotn etc,all dirt cheap.I sold too early and missed the peak.Year or two later all the people who used to go to the bank to look at share prices(it was as the internet was coming of age) basically lost everything.Some of the guys there-when I was selling-laughed at me,told me I knew squat and scoot.com was really gonna be twenty quid by Christmas.

It was an amazing expereince.

At the time,real businesses with real earnings were going cheap.

Let's look at some charts

FTSE peak Dec99

BHP was £3.54 Dec 99

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scoot.co.uk

Scoot is a United Kingdom business directory website. It was one of the highest profile casualties of the rise and fall of internet companies during the internet boom at the beginning of the 21st century falling from a value of £2.5 billion in 2000 to £5 million in 2002.

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10 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

There is a bit of an uprising of loss-making zombies last few days.  Lyft, Uber, Beyond Meat.  Have they become profitable all of a sudden?  Just joking - of course not.

This is the problem with shorting.The guyswho can move markets can get a squeeze going and position themselves long on a stock known as a hot short.

At some point,I think TSLA will be worth a lot less per share.But a lot of us are going to lose money on that.Market is well overdue a correction but momentum is nearly everything these days ,until of course,it isn't.

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3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Remember this feeling and bottle it for next time.My experience in the 2000 bubble was incredible.I was buying tech stocks in the 90's by pure chance as I subscribed to a newsletter called Techinvest and I reasoned as a sector it had long term growth.The bubble happened and I remember having friends who knew zip about stocks tyelling me scoot.com were gonna be a tenner by Christmas etc etc etc.Madness gripped everyone.

Whilst I didn't know much I knew it wasn't right and my Grandad was saying look at Halifax, ook at BHP, Gencor, Billiotn etc,all dirt cheap.I sold too early and missed the peak.Year or two later all the people who used to go to the bank to look at share prices(it was as the internet was coming of age) basically lost everything.Some of the guys there-when I was selling-laughed at me,told me I knew squat and scoot.com was really gonna be twenty quid by Christmas.

It was an amazing expereince.

At the time,real businesses with real earnings were going cheap.

Let's look at some charts

FTSE peak Dec99

BHP was £3.54 Dec 99

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scoot.co.uk

Scoot is a United Kingdom business directory website. It was one of the highest profile casualties of the rise and fall of internet companies during the internet boom at the beginning of the 21st century falling from a value of £2.5 billion in 2000 to £5 million in 2002.

 

 

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I was young back then and was bewildered by it all was utter madness and what we see today with the likes of Lyft, Uber, Tesla is the same madness

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10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Remember this feeling and bottle it for next time.My experience in the 2000 bubble was incredible

I wish i could have experienced the General mood at that time. I was more interested in a acquiring booze and PlayStation games than pets.com shares

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On 15/01/2020 at 09:54, sancho panza said:

Remember this feeling and bottle it for next time.My experience in the 2000 bubble was incredible.I was buying tech stocks in the 90's by pure chance as I subscribed to a newsletter called Techinvest and I reasoned as a sector it had long term growth.The bubble happened and I remember having friends who knew zip about stocks tyelling me scoot.com were gonna be a tenner by Christmas etc etc etc.Madness gripped everyone.

Whilst I didn't know much I knew it wasn't right and my Grandad was saying look at Halifax, ook at BHP, Gencor, Billiotn etc,all dirt cheap.I sold too early and missed the peak.Year or two later all the people who used to go to the bank to look at share prices(it was as the internet was coming of age) basically lost everything.Some of the guys there-when I was selling-laughed at me,told me I knew squat and scoot.com was really gonna be twenty quid by Christmas.

It was an amazing expereince.

At the time,real businesses with real earnings were going cheap.

Let's look at some charts

FTSE peak Dec99

BHP was £3.54 Dec 99

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scoot.co.uk

Scoot is a United Kingdom business directory website. It was one of the highest profile casualties of the rise and fall of internet companies during the internet boom at the beginning of the 21st century falling from a value of £2.5 billion in 2000 to £5 million in 2002.

 

 

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image.png

I never got involved in the madness at the turn of the century, as I have a rule of not investing in anything that I don't understand - certainly I could not understand the valuations of most tech companies at the time! Of course, this was a source of much amusement of friends who were going in balls-deep, believing in the new paradigm etc. I even met one guy who had taken out every credit card he could, maxed out every one by withdrawing cash, just to buy tech shares. I think he did himself in.

Needless to say, when the crash came, the subject was quietly dropped.

Things do seem to be different this time; ironically I think that it is, at least in part, thanks to the use of technology itself in modern trading that is sustaining what I consider to be fantasy valuations of tech companies today. Of course, at some point it is going to get really ugly, but, as SP states, a lot of people are going to make a lot of money beforehand, as well as afterwards.

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1 hour ago, Ponty Mython said:

 the use of technology itself in modern trading that is sustaining what I consider to be fantasy valuations of tech companies today.

Plate spinning machines. xD

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6 hours ago, Ponty Mython said:

I never got involved in the madness at the turn of the century, as I have a rule of not investing in anything that I don't understand - certainly I could not understand the valuations of most tech companies at the time! Of course, this was a source of much amusement of friends who were going in balls-deep, believing in the new paradigm etc. I even met one guy who had taken out every credit card he could, maxed out every one by withdrawing cash, just to buy tech shares. I think he did himself in.

Needless to say, when the crash came, the subject was quietly dropped.

Things do seem to be different this time; ironically I think that it is, at least in part, thanks to the use of technology itself in modern trading that is sustaining what I consider to be fantasy valuations of tech companies today. Of course, at some point it is going to get really ugly, but, as SP states, a lot of people are going to make a lot of money beforehand, as well as afterwards.

Hot money has aslo flowed in property in the West.You look at the valuations of Apple,Facebook,Google and they run alongside the valuations we see for housing here.

But as someone who's seena few exponential phases in his time,I'm beginning to feel the insanity in the stock market trumps the insanity in the housing market bubble wise.

I shut down my last few trades on the short side at a small profit.Goiing to wait for a re entry point.

 

 

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16 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I shut down my last few trades on the short side at a small profit.Goiing to wait for a re entry point.

According to Max Keiser short selling is no longer "a thing" as the FED don't allow anything to go downO.o

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