Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[feed]

17 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Have what i think is an interesting anecdotal. 

 

I went and encapsulated some asbestos today at a country barn conversion/bungalow halfway between whitby and Scarborough. 

 

Met the builder there and he asked how much we thought they'd paid for it. Shitty bungalow with poor quality barn attached, about an acre of land. 

 

Im reasonably familiar with the area so i said about 300k. 600k! My jaw literally dropped. He said buyers wife wanted it no matter what and they ended up in a four way bidding war. Builder is local and said this is now commonplace in Whitby: houses go up for sale and end up going for 30% over asking after bidding war. 

 

Theres about 200 sqm of absestos covering the entire roof area, barn and bungalow. Someone (not the builder) has previously tiled straight over the asbestos meaning theres now a HUGE weight on the roof, asbestos keeps moisture in and prevents heat escaping so in summer it will be horrendous. How the hell they'll ever sell it is beyond me. 

 

Surely if this kind of thing is happening in somewhere like Whitby then its a canary in the coal mine for the housing market. 

 

DB, CV and others helped clarify my thoughts on selling my house (my thanks to one and all), this is the icing on the cake. Im putting it up for sale next week. 

 

 

 

i'm going to be one of those SE workers making the exodus north in the next 6 to 18 months and i've been following whitby the last few of months. It's insane.  Not so much prices, compared to essex it's still cheap, but the speed with which properties go SSTC. 

Bidding wars not at all surprised.   

[JMD]

8 hours ago, Starsend said:

If your brother can get a licence in s month then importing more cheap labour isn't the correct answer. It will become another permanent flow of cheap labour resulting in more wage supression. At some point there have to be shortages and no easy opt out. Companies have to be forced to train and raise wages. Twats running our country have crumbled at the first hurdle. The long term looks like more of the same unless they grow some balls.

I agree.                                                                                                                                                                                    You also mention 'twats'... (!!!)... They had the boss of Iceland on BBC QT the other night. He got big applause from the audience when he announced that all his employees would now be getting boxing day off. But, but, but - not a single person (twat!) from the audience, nor the panel, nor even the overpaid host, asked if he was going to increase lorry driver pay, despite him earlier in same program admitting that his own company was 100 drivers short. ...Thing is they even had that Labour MP 'progressive radical' on the panel - David Lammy, but then again I guess he is the political personification of the twat-meister general.

[JMD]

8 hours ago, Animal Spirits said:

But who will be serving our coffee in Pret, who would be selling us our sandwiches in Pret??? Shazza will have to.

Retarded bunch aren't they? I satisfy myself with the continuing declining readership of the Guardian. But I also note that the 'Financial'??? Times has taken a real hit over last 12 months figures. I wonder why? Rhetorical question of course!!                                                                                                                                                                https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_newspapers_in_the_United_Kingdom_by_circulation

[ThoughtCriminal]

22 minutes ago, feed said:

i'm going to be one of those SE workers making the exodus north in the next 6 to 18 months and i've been following whitby the last few of months. It's insane.  Not so much prices, compared to essex it's still cheap, but the speed with which properties go SSTC. 

Bidding wars not at all surprised.   

I suppose there's still value for someone like you. Dare I say it, it may even seem "cheap". 

 

But for someone like me who'd long thought of that area as somewhere id live were it not for my work then this is a real wake up call. 

[Starsend]

51 minutes ago, JMD said:

I agree.                                                                                                                                                                                    You also mention 'twats'... (!!!)... They had the boss of Iceland on BBC QT the other night. He got big applause from the audience when he announced that all his employees would now be getting boxing day off. But, but, but - not a single person (twat!) from the audience, nor the panel, nor even the overpaid host, asked if he was going to increase lorry driver pay, despite him earlier in same program admitting that his own company was 100 drivers short. ...Thing is they even had that Labour MP 'progressive radical' on the panel - David Lammy, but then again I guess he is the political personification of the twat-meister general.

I stopped watching QT years ago, made my blood pressure boil. They all refused to talk about the elephant in the room on almost every subject. Mindless drivel most of the time.

Boxing Day off, that's very generous of him haha

[Starsend]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

My takeaway is that - I don't think these recent government initiatives are about staving off collapse. For me these policy reversals (made through gritted teeth im sure) probe to me what dire straights were in - but far far more crucially - that governments know this also.

I agree in that I think they know the mess we're in and what the only way out is - but they just can't seem to help themselves when it comes to cheap labour.

If they don't get it right then it'll be collapse and a new beginning and new Government hopefully so either way is ok with me.

[feed]

33 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I suppose there's still value for someone like you. Dare I say it, it may even seem "cheap".  

Unfortunately it's not just me. 

That's what £600k will get within a mile of me. 

Whitby just over 200 miles away and i haven't been in the office since March 2020.  

 

 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, feed said:

i'm going to be one of those SE workers making the exodus north in the next 6 to 18 months and i've been following whitby the last few of months. It's insane.  Not so much prices, compared to essex it's still cheap, but the speed with which properties go SSTC. 

Bidding wars not at all surprised.   

Ive just been to see a couple of waterfalls close to Whitby, then went to Robin Hoods Bay via Whitby town centre ... but on the drive back noticed the decent housing stock in Scarborough ... imho Scabby would be the better bet as its a bigger town and has better roads to connect you to civilisation along with it being quicker to get to the East coast mainline.

Or if you can afford it York is better still.

 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I suppose there's still value for someone like you. Dare I say it, it may even seem "cheap". 

 

But for someone like me who'd long thought of that area as somewhere id live were it not for my work then this is a real wake up call. 

Ive just looked at both Whitby and Scabby and its not much cheaper than Salisbury where i've been looking at as a plan B.

Only difference with the north is you can buy an ex council house in Stabsville for next to nothing, whereas ex-council houses in the south can cost an absolute fortune.

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Ive just been to see a couple of waterfalls close to Whitby, then went to Robin Hoods Bay via Whitby town centre ... but on the drive back noticed the decent housing stock in Scarborough ... imho Scabby would be the better bet as its a bigger town and has better roads to connect you to civilisation along with it being quicker to get to the East coast mainline.

Or if you can afford it York is better still.

 

York is for hen nights.

[Hancock]

Just now, Phil said:

York is for hen nights.

Everyone loves a gang of drunken smoggy lasses with L plates on them, just a pity the "hen" has been taken as they're always a classy catch.

Its the lighting of their fanny farts that does it for me!

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, feed said:

Unfortunately it's not just me. 

That's what £600k will get within a mile of me. 

Whitby just over 200 miles away and i haven't been in the office since March 2020.  

 

 

I always forget how little your money buys down south. 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/109644170#/?channel=COM_BUY

 

295k gets you a new build "stables" ready to become a bungalow with 6 acres near the North Yorkshire national Park. 

Actually dont look too closely, the more i look at that the more i like it 🤔😂

[ThoughtCriminal]

20 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Ive just looked at both Whitby and Scabby and its not much cheaper than Salisbury where i've been looking at as a plan B.

Only difference with the north is you can buy an ex council house in Stabsville for next to nothing, whereas ex-council houses in the south can cost an absolute fortune.

Yeah, i think the value up north is rural properties in the helmsley, thirsk area, good access to A19 and rail. Northumberland also good. 

 

But you can get ripped off even up here. 

[spygirl]

21 hours ago, Starsend said:

I understand that but still not convinced. They've been happy trying to increase GDP (and hence the tax take) by adding more workers for decades. Old habits die hard.

Getting millions of single mums off of benefits or even reducing them much is going to be extremely difficult, never mind to the point where people working are better off than them. They'll be screeches about the children the moment they try. Entire system is too fucked to fix imo. Collapse the only way.

Noone likes single mums on benefits other than the single mums n Labour party wimmin.

Teachers hate them. People living near them hate them. Single mums who's kids are over 18 hate them.....

Like drunk homeless, Labour for mental reasons, put a halo on them.

Reading Kiers epic, you can see hes trying to row back a lot from from that and the public sector. Hes just struggling  to say it directly.

Its not hard to get them off bennies. Just look at the 2 child limit.

Just stop giving them money - raise the hours, drop the kids age to 11. Sorted.

 

 

[spygirl]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

My point was the waste of productiveness, and yes, there is a cost to everything, and someone always pays, agreed. There will always be the mates rates. I mentioned mandatory training to do a job. Driving for example would be a good one. I would say there is a lot of people who would at say 30 +, love to change their job. If you’ve got the family thing going on it can be difficult to pay for the training. The bs about drivers earning shed loads is bs. Even at £20 ph, the life must be grim. That’s how I see it. Importing from Europe may be needed temporarily, but long term access to productive “free” training is a good thing long term ( 10 yrs say).

It depends. The shit thing about hgv are the nights away and shit hours - starting at 5am to get a load into a shop by 8am.

With the move to big warehouses there are now jobs where you are shifting loads during the day, almost 9 to 5.

Better logistics, mobile phones updates and a lot of dumb shit goes away.

 

[Starsend]

12 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Noone likes single mums on benefits other than the single mums n Labour party wimmin.

Teachers hate them. People living near them hate them. Single mums who's kids are over 18 hate them.....

Like drunk homeless, Labour for mental reasons, put a halo on them.

Reading Kiers epic, you can see hes trying to grow back a lit from from that and tge public sector. Hes just struggling  to say it directly.

Its not hard to get them off bennies. Just look at the 2 child limit.

Just stop giving them money - raise the hours, drop the kids age to 11. Sorted.

 

 

A man and a woman both working can barely affford a house and kids. How is a single mum with a couple of bratts ever going to put a roof over her kids heads all by herself without bennies?

It's a rare woman who can support herself and kids without getting money from government or a man. I see no easy fix. Gonna take twenty years - if they have the balls to do what's needed, which they won't.

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Gonna take twenty years

Unfortunately they only have ten

 

[spygirl]

15 minutes ago, Starsend said:

A man and a woman both working can barely affford a house and kids. How is a single mum with a couple of bratts ever going to put a roof over her kids heads all by herself without bennies?

It's a rare woman who can support herself and kids without getting money from government or a man. I see no easy fix. Gonna take twenty years - if they have the balls to do what's needed, which they won't.

A man n wife struggle because they are paying for a couple of single mums.

Sort out bennies. The first step is removing them from the EUers n elsewhere.

Next step is to cap HB. Then bump up qualifying hours. It'll take less than 5 years.

[Hancock]

14 minutes ago, Starsend said:

A man and a woman both working can barely affford a house and kids. How is a single mum with a couple of bratts ever going to put a roof over her kids heads all by herself without bennies?

It's a rare woman who can support herself and kids without getting money from government or a man. I see no easy fix. Gonna take twenty years - if they have the balls to do what's needed, which they won't.

Im a single parent male, and in hindsight should have gone down the route of getting a council house. But this thread is full of people who are looking to make a quick buck on shares and on the back of someone elses labour so they don't have to work. It's merely doing what you've got to do to survive.

Blaming single parent women is a cop out to the utter fuck up of a society 45 years the LIBLABCON have overseen, besides the children of these women have a father somewhere who is also reliant on the state to fund their child in one form or another.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

this thread is full of people who are looking to make a quick buck on shares and on the back of someone elses labour so they don't have to work. outpace inflation, just.

FTFY

[spygirl]

54 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Im a single parent male, and in hindsight should have gone down the route of getting a council house. But this thread is full of people who are looking to make a quick buck on shares and on the back of someone elses labour so they don't have to work. It's merely doing what you've got to do to survive.

Blaming single parent women is a cop out to the utter fuck up of a society 45 years the LIBLABCON have overseen, besides the children of these women have a father somewhere who is also reliant on the state to fund their child in one form or another.

I cant think of many local instances of a single mums baby father whose holding down a tax paying job.

There was little to no poverty in the UK when Brown started on his saviour of the poor crusade. So he made up the poverty stats.

He wanted to be seen as a Kier Hardie type, shodding the feet of TB riddled street urchins.

All he did was pay for mams Lambrini and a trip to Turkey - in term time.

[Democorruptcy]

21 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its not that they care about the workers,its they care about systemic collapse and the economy will roll over without massive wage inflation.Remember they will be hedged themselves from the inflation.Its about lifting wages so they can tax them and also making the gap bigger with welfare.The interesting part is housing.I dont think the higher wages will be enough above inflation to stop a big correction.I dont do much on housing,but i think the housing market will top this month then enter a 2 year minimum bear market.

The problem is that for years "the economy" = "house prices".  The more wages go up the more leverage there is to stop house prices rolling over. The only way that stops, is if lending multiples are reduced (IF interest rates rise?). There would probably be more outcry about credit being reduced, than there's been about covid restrictions.

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

The problem is that for years "the economy" = "house prices".  The more wages go up the more leverage there is to stop house prices rolling over. The only way that stops, is if lending multiples are reduced (IF interest rates rise?). There would probably be more outcry about credit being reduced, than there's been about covid restrictions.

Wages haven't gone up much.

You might be surprised but the value of outstanding mortgage debt has barely shifted, as fewer houses are sold.

Anyone clinging to the desperate hope that IRs wont go up as people cant afford them hasn't seen actual level of outstanding mortgage debt. Mmr has done its job.

What hasn't happened since 2010 is the ho falls to match the more limited mortgage finances. That's zirp n btl for you.

[Hancock]

26 minutes ago, Loki said:

FTFY

Bollocks.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Bollocks.

Not really, if I was trying to do that I'd be avidly following the shitcoin threads.

Who the hell would use a macro thread for the chance of quick and easy gains like you seem to describe?