Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Hancock]

5 minutes ago, Loki said:

Who the hell would use a macro thread for the chance of quick and easy gains like you seem to describe?

People who buy gold/silver mining shares looking to multibag ... people looking to time a crash so they can get maximum gains.

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Hancock said:

People who buy gold/silver mining shares looking to multibag ... people looking to time a crash so they can get maximum gains.

Let me just get this clear, you're equating investing in productive companies and exercising market diligence with spending a lifetime on the dole?

[Hancock]

31 minutes ago, Loki said:

Let me just get this clear, you're equating investing in productive companies and exercising market diligence with spending a lifetime on the dole?

That's not what i said.

But you're not investing in some African mining company where workers are cannon fodder to "match inflation", you're doing so to grab excessive gains of someone elses labour, and outsmart other people who you hope aren't as good at timing the market as yourself. 

You're hardly doing this for a noble cause of "matching inflation", its purely to enrich yourself with vast gains. Nothing wrong with that, you're just doing what you've got to do to get by.

If a few years ago DB had said i have a strategy to get you a 50% return on your investment in 10 years which will be the approx rate of inflation over this period; this topic wouldn't have got so popular. The reason its popular is because people on here could see it had the potential to give them rewards to enable them to retire early, and that potential reward is hardly due to breaking your back and working hard.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

That's not what i said.

But you're not investing in some African mining company where workers are cannon fodder to "match inflation", you're doing so to grab excessive gains of someone elses labour, and outsmart other people who you hope aren't as good at timing the market as yourself. 

You're hardly doing this for a noble cause of "matching inflation", its purely to enrich yourself with vast gains. Nothing wrong with that, you're just doing what you've got to do to get by.

If a few years ago DB had said i have a strategy to get you a 50% return on your investment in 10 years which will be the approx rate of inflation over this period; this topic wouldn't have got so popular. The reason its popular is because people on here could see it had the potential to give them rewards to enable them to retire early, and that potential reward is hardly due to breaking your back and working hard.

Do you get paid when you go to work?  I do.

My day rate is also less than the company I am working for charges for me to be on site.  Is that excessive gains of someone else's labour (In the real sense of the words since they wield pens and keyboards and I wear steel toe boots)

TBH in my opinion your post contains a bizarre mish mash of statements, that I really can't be bothered to dissect.

tl;dr yes I'm a cunt and I know I am, don't care.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

tl;dr yes I'm a cunt and I know I am, don't care.

I said people on here were looking "to make a quick buck on shares and on the back of someone elses labour, so they don't have to work and can have an easier life". 

Then i said your claim to be looking to "match inflation" is bollocks, and gave an example as to why. i.e. No fucker buys junior mining shares to "match inflation".

You never bothered answering this, instead tried but failed to be clever, by being condescending

The only person who said you're a cunt is you.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Then i said your claim to be looking to "match inflation" is bollocks, and gave an example as to why. i.e. No fucker buys junior mining shares to "match inflation".

You never bothered answering this, instead tried but failed to be clever, by being condescending

 

I didn't bother answering it because it's a fucking stupid thing to say.  The only difference between beating inflation and making a quick buck is time, you realise most on here including me are/were in the red with miners?

So does where does the risk of capital loss figure in your equation? 

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, Loki said:

I didn't bother answering it because it's a fucking stupid thing to say.  The only difference between beating inflation and making a quick buck is time, you realise most on here including me are/were in the red with miners?

So does where does the risk of capital loss figure in your equation? 

I'm not. Haven't got any. Lol

[Harley]

Wow, an excellent run through it all, once he gets going.  I would have said exactly the same, bar being in the 1%!  Uncanny.

https://palisadesradio.ca/matthew-piepenburg-a-new-currency-system-is-emerging/

"Talking Points From This Episode:  Market distortions, valuations, and why everything is momentum-based. Fed’s magic tricks and unsustainable debt levels. CBDCs, inflation, the end of the dollar, and gold"

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

Wow, an excellent run through it all, once he gets going.  I would have said exactly the same, bar being in the 1%!  Uncanny.

https://palisadesradio.ca/matthew-piepenburg-a-new-currency-system-is-emerging/

"Michael discusses how everything is backward and nothing is real anymore. During Alan Greenspan’s time at the Fed everything changed and Wall Street has become a circus. Today’s policies would have been unthinkable back in the 90s. Fundamentals barely matter and the new solutions are toxic....."

Pallisades is great, I must have scrolled past this one.  Will check it out (But not tonight)  

[JMD]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The BOE has pretty much printed the welfare budget for 13 years.We pay £100 billion a year to people to do nothing at all.Every incentive to do the wrong thing,little incentive to do the right thing.People working 16 hours in NMW jobs are driving around in BMWs and Mercs if they have a couple of kids and one down as ADHD.

The cycle of dis-inflation that allowed this has now ended.We gave Sharon her bennies and an ex farm worker in China did her work for her.Now that is being removed Sharon will have to work.Government doesnt know what to do because they are so scared of the left and the media,but they will have no choice.The cycle is in play now.Command economy will be part of it for certain,because they cant get half the population to give up bennies and work overnight.

 

Yes (but as the thread is so full of late of gloomy posts I shall continue the trend) is the government actually scared of the left or of the media? After all the last 18 months could be seen as an interesting/successful dry run experiment on discovering the strength of opposition out there. To be clear, on balance I personally think that covid was a (useful but fortuatous) panic-demic rather than a plan-demic.                                                                                                                                                                                               As for the problem of quickly changing hearts and minds, or rapidly converting work-shy bennie's into worker bees, etc, I think that for any command economy to succeed it would need a 'war-time' theme. So maybe fully exploit our current 3-Cs - that would be war on Covid (any variant will do), war against Climate change, and a (proxy) war with China!     ...Alternatively (but mainly just so I can contrive yet more C's) Covid could be cured, the Climate crises could be contained by carbon capture, and China conveniently caves(in).                                                                                                                         ...Of course all this talk could/should be seen as idle pointless conjecture, but my base-case remains (btw, i didn't think any of this 2 years ago) - that the above types of existential emergencies, and the resulting omni-shambles, will provide ample cover and excuse for all kinds of nefarious government activities. However, regardless of how good/bad the policies - and/or - how strong/weak our leaders are, there probably will be no escaping our 2030ish date with destiny!?

[Mapper]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Wow, an excellent run through it all, once he gets going.  I would have said exactly the same, bar being in the 1%!  Uncanny.

https://palisadesradio.ca/matthew-piepenburg-a-new-currency-system-is-emerging/

"Talking Points From This Episode:  Market distortions, valuations, and why everything is momentum-based. Fed’s magic tricks and unsustainable debt levels. CBDCs, inflation, the end of the dollar, and gold"

I'll second this, was going to post it. He is anti-fed and a gold dealer. He talks in monologues combining mulitple points, but is very easy to listen to.

One point he made is that debt to GDP of over 130%(?) has never been sustainable and will eventually lead to collapse. He references Luke Gromen who is another interesting guy to listen to on this stuff.

Btw am I the only one who enjoys it when Tom introduces himself?

"Welcome to Palisades Gold Radio, I'm your host Tom Bo~~~~". I know what his name is, but I can never make it out when he says it.

[spygirl]

21 hours ago, working woman said:

Lorry Drivers

My next door neighbours (30ish) both gave up their jobs about 6 months ago to set up a business. They both worked for transport companies, recruiting lorry drivers and have set up an agency recruiting lorry drivers for the supermarkets. They have a lot of experience in this and are doing really well.

They are paying the drivers £15/hr which for a 40hr week is over 30K.  Sounds good, but a mortgage at x 6 salary is 180K, which gets you a grotty 2 bed flat where I live, not enough for a man to be the "bread winner" and raise a family in a 3 bed-semi.  Semi's start at 300K here. 

Wages need to rise or property needs to come down, maybe both. 

Rather than importing labour from abroad - why not encourage retired Ex HGV drivers back onto the road with incentives such as Tax Free Pay on a part or full 3-6 months contract, hours to suit them, until  enough new drivers are trained up. 

Why would people want to move to the UK, in the middle of a pandemic, where you have to jump through hoops to get on a plane and go home to visit family. 

It will be interesting to see what happens.

Cuz works a ye olde transport co - farmers 2nd son, whos agri transport dips into the odd bulk contract non agri.

After a few years, my cuz have managed to get the useful old fart to use a mobile phone properly.

Theres a lot of transport companies that are run by by techno luddites. It needs fresh blood.

 

 

[sleepwello'nights]

20 hours ago, working woman said:

 

Maybe for the UK, clothing manufacture stays abroad and we focus on developing more high tech industries.

 

That has been policy since the end of the second world war. It is the reason our industries have been decimated. It is the reason why Blair uttered his mantra Education, education, education. 

For whatever reason, aptitude, intelligence, motivation, some do not want intellectually demanding jobs. Some want to coast doing as little as possible so they can earn what they need to sustain the life style they pursue. Be it a social life with friends, enjoying time with their family or engaging in their hobby. 

The parallel example I immediately think of is the UK motorcycle industry. Our industry decided to concentrate on the low volume high end production leaving the high volume low end to the Japanese. Look at how that ended. 

It strikes me that the only industries where work has not been concentrated at the advanced end are those where it is not possible for the work to be exported are prospering. Construction trades for example. Even then much of the workforce are from other countries as it seems many British consider the work beneath them or too unpleasant and are able to claim benefits. 

[Tingles]

 

11 hours ago, Hancock said:

Im a single parent male, and in hindsight should have gone down the route of getting a council house. But this thread is full of people who are looking to make a quick buck on shares and on the back of someone elses labour so they don't have to work. It's merely doing what you've got to do to survive.

Blaming single parent women is a cop out to the utter fuck up of a society 45 years the LIBLABCON have overseen, besides the children of these women have a father somewhere who is also reliant on the state to fund their child in one form or another.

9 hours ago, Hancock said:

That's not what i said.

But you're not investing in some African mining company where workers are cannon fodder to "match inflation", you're doing so to grab excessive gains of someone elses labour, and outsmart other people who you hope aren't as good at timing the market as yourself. 

You're hardly doing this for a noble cause of "matching inflation", its purely to enrich yourself with vast gains. Nothing wrong with that, you're just doing what you've got to do to get by.

If a few years ago DB had said i have a strategy to get you a 50% return on your investment in 10 years which will be the approx rate of inflation over this period; this topic wouldn't have got so popular. The reason its popular is because people on here could see it had the potential to give them rewards to enable them to retire early, and that potential reward is hardly due to breaking your back and working hard.

7 hours ago, Hancock said:

I said people on here were looking "to make a quick buck on shares and on the back of someone elses labour, so they don't have to work and can have an easier life". 

Then i said your claim to be looking to "match inflation" is bollocks, and gave an example as to why. i.e. No fucker buys junior mining shares to "match inflation".

You never bothered answering this, instead tried but failed to be clever, by being condescending

The only person who said you're a cunt is you.

Yawn.  Just.  Fucking.  YAWN.

[sleepwello'nights]

13 hours ago, Starsend said:

 

Boxing Day off, that's very generous of him haha

He must have remembered that story Dickens wrote 

[MrXxxx]

18 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Their greenhouses were also sitting on the biggest pool of natural gas in Europe, top 5 in the world at one point. Easy to grow (shite) veg when you can afford to heat the greenhouses! Freed up capital for innovation, but they got a massive one off freebie.

This got me thinking, why don't they put greenhouses on top of old landfill sites...they are not heavy, don't require foundations, and could use the Methane that is currently `flared off` to heat them?

[ThoughtCriminal]

Michael Burry apparently has 100k puts on 20 year treasury. 

 

History about to repeat? 

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

That has been policy since the end of the second world war. It is the reason our industries have been decimated. It is the reason why Blair uttered his mantra Education, education, education. 

For whatever reason, aptitude, intelligence, motivation, some do not want intellectually demanding jobs. Some want to coast doing as little as possible so they can earn what they need to sustain the life style they pursue. Be it a social life with friends, enjoying time with their family or engaging in their hobby. 

The parallel example I immediately think of is the UK motorcycle industry. Our industry decided to concentrate on the low volume high end production leaving the high volume low end to the Japanese. Look at how that ended. 

It strikes me that the only industries where work has not been concentrated at the advanced end are those where it is not possible for the work to be exported are prospering. Construction trades for example. Even then much of the workforce are from other countries as it seems many British consider the work beneath them or too unpleasant and are able to claim benefits. 

You and most other people misheard or misunderstood what he said.What Blair - or rather than broader Labour party - said was -

More jobs and money for the unaccountable Labour voters who work in the education blob,

More jobs and money for the unaccountable Labour voters who work in the education blob,

More jobs and money for the unaccountable Labour voters who work in the education blob.

[Errol]

A hamster has been trading cryptocurrencies in a cage rigged to automatically buy and sell tokens since June - and it's currently outperforming the S&P 500

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/hamster-trading-cryptocurrencies-rigged-cage-goxx-bitcoin-price-ether-doge-2021-9

[spygirl]

On 25/09/2021 at 10:41, JimmyTheBruce said:

 

Whilst I'm all for training, nothing is free, somebody always foots the bill.  Which takes me back to my original question; will the "free" training be "paid " by the state to Hugo's hastily formed training company, set up at the behest of his shool chum who awards the contracts?  Or will companies actually have to make internal efficiencies and investment to recruit, train, and retain the workforce they require?

The relentless cronyism exists in both public and private sector, but at least there's a semblance (albeit still shite) of profit-driven efficiency in the latter.

Take it from benefit bill and by utting cash after 5 years without work.

[spygirl]

19 hours ago, JMD said:

Plus it's a bigger and more endemic problem than just transport. I hear that Northampton health trust is now restricting chemotherapy services because don't have enough cancer nurses/technicians. NHS treatment has always been rationed, though this is never much admitted, but this is different and relates to sudden structural changes in the job market.                                                                                                                             A 'war time', command economy is coming I tell you... And so useful politically, I predict Boris will scrub half those useless university places and replace with proper job training/apprenticeships, etc. 

NHS has more than enough workers Drs n nurses for tge natives.

The service is stretched because the number of migrants free riding and a good 20%-30% not showing up.

[invalid]

On 24/09/2021 at 13:15, JimmyTheBruce said:

I've come to realise that conscientiousness/pride/work ethic or whatever you want to call it, is what companies take advantage of to shit all over you.

It's difficult, because nobody wants to spend 8 hours a day filling time, but I'm done with caring about top notch delivery until I'm properly recompensed for it.

 

 

It took me far too long to come that realisation, almost a couple of decades.

I'm placing seeds of information that will hopefully help my kids make that realisation far quicker than I did.

There was a time when conscientiousness/pride/work ethic was beneficial for a worker, but not so much these days. Will it return going forward?

 

 

[spygirl]

19 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Have what i think is an interesting anecdotal. 

 

I went and encapsulated some asbestos today at a country barn conversion/bungalow halfway between whitby and Scarborough. 

 

Met the builder there and he asked how much we thought they'd paid for it. Shitty bungalow with poor quality barn attached, about an acre of land. 

 

Im reasonably familiar with the area so i said about 300k. 600k! My jaw literally dropped. He said buyers wife wanted it no matter what and they ended up in a four way bidding war. Builder is local and said this is now commonplace in Whitby: houses go up for sale and end up going for 30% over asking after bidding war. 

 

Theres about 200 sqm of absestos covering the entire roof area, barn and bungalow. Someone (not the builder) has previously tiled straight over the asbestos meaning theres now a HUGE weight on the roof, asbestos keeps moisture in and prevents heat escaping so in summer it will be horrendous. How the hell they'll ever sell it is beyond me. 

 

Surely if this kind of thing is happening in somewhere like Whitby then its a canary in the coal mine for the housing market. 

 

DB, CV and others helped clarify my thoughts on selling my house (my thanks to one and all), this is the icing on the cake. Im putting it up for sale next week. 

 

 

 

I'd be very very careful taking anyone but the LR figures for prices paid.

Locally, it's like Chinese whispers. I've lost count of the places a builder or EA or my mother have told me has sold for xxxx, only to find out its not sold.

Whitby has at least two very stupid EAs who overvalue then accept the most flimsiest if buyers, only to find out theyve not got the funds.

The covid SD holiday has brought on a rush of buyers -

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=whitby&startmonth=01&startyear=2017&endmonth=06&endyear=2021

However 3/4 will be people piling into holiday let's.

Prices up but sales volume well down.

If, as expected, the rules on FHL change you are going to see 60% of houses bought in the last 10 years back on the market.

Again - look at the volumes in that link. The market will collapse if half the holiday lets bought in last 10 years are put on the market.

Massive collapse if mortgage rates move towards 6%.

I'm guessing small biz rate relief will be removed from FHL. 

In terms of between Whitby n Scarbs, theres a fair few shit small holdings either side of the road. And Rscar/ Staintondale.

You get a lot of people move into this hinterland, only to move out a few years later.

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

18 minutes ago, spygirl said:

I'd be very very careful taking anyone but the LR figures for prices paid.

Locally, it's like Chinese whispers. I've lost count of the places a builder or EA or my mother have told me has sold for xxxx, only to find out its not sold.

Whitby has at least two very stupid EAs who overvalue then accept the most flimsiest if buyers, only to find out theyve not got the funds.

The covid SD holiday has brought on a rush of buyers -

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=whitby&startmonth=01&startyear=2017&endmonth=06&endyear=2021

However 3/4 will be people piling into holiday let's.

Prices up but sales volume well down.

If, as expected, the rules on FHL change you are going to see 60% of houses bought in the last 10 years back on the market.

Again - look at the volumes in that link. The market will collapse if half the holiday lets bought in last 10 years are put on the market.

Massive collapse if mortgage rates move towards 6%.

I'm guessing small biz rate relief will be removed from FHL. 

In terms of between Whitby n Scarbs, theres a fair few shit small holdings either side of the road. And Rscar/ Staintondale.

You get a lot of people move into this hinterland, only to move out a few years later.

 

 

Doubling in 4 years is nuts. 

[sleepwello'nights]

4 hours ago, spygirl said:

You and most other people misheard or misunderstood what he said.What Blair - or rather than broader Labour party - said was -

More jobs and money for the unaccountable Labour voters who work in the education blob,

More jobs and money for the unaccountable Labour voters who work in the education blob,

More jobs and money for the unaccountable Labour voters who work in the education blob.

That may very well be what he meant, it is not what was said. But yes everyone misunderstood.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/may/23/labour.tonyblair