Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[AWW]

3 hours ago, tank said:

That doesn't correlate with the schooling demographics once these children reach age 6. 

Percentage of 'White British' students attending London LA Schools in 2012:

Inner London 16%

Outer London 36%

Average for the Rest of England 76%

Source: www.data.london.gov.uk/dataset/percentage-pupils-ethnic-group-borough

Clearly, the vast majority of people who grow up in today's London are not white British. Hardly a stunning revelation to anyone with a pair of functioning eyes.  The young White British who do buy there tend to be backed by family money and have generic Home Counties accents. A large number of these people leave when they couple up and often end up in regional cities trying to duplicate their 'London Experience'. 

Ethnicity isn't the same thing as kids' names, who knew?

I'd love to see your stats for "generic home counties accents".

It all sounds a bit Partridge. I'll never understand the need for people who don't live here nor even visit the place to tell the world how bad it is.

[AWW]

1 hour ago, onlyme said:

If similar places end up in LTN's how do they get serviced?

The logistics for trades in cities are bad enough that for years now if given the choice trades actively avoid working in places that are difficult to park, access, get materials and work in. If you cover the area with LTN's all of those are progressively made worse, you can't even get vehicle access to unload. Could turn a half hour job into a couple of hours, actual servicing costs  could rocket.

LTNs stop through traffic, not visiting traffic. It's actually quicker to drive around an LTN than it used to be because there's no through traffic.

[Bilbo]

Visited a distance relative who lives near Pool Dorset. She lives in an over 55s flat complex. Nice build of 45 flats.

The service charge is going up from approximately 4k to 7k. This she told us was mainly due to the new fire regulations brought in because of Grenfell. 

Haven't checked this out anybody have further information?

Lot's of residents will be badly hit as appropriate 2k council tax plus 2k heating plus the 7k. Lot of Dosh before you eat!

Also she said local painter/decorator was now £45-00 per hour.

She was hoping if she had to go into care the sale price of the flat would cover the cost... Hopefully is all I can say!

[onlyme]

3 minutes ago, AWW said:

LTNs stop through traffic, not visiting traffic. It's actually quicker to drive around an LTN than it used to be because there's no through traffic.

Once you are in it maybe, but we'll see what really happens in some areas, then there is the parking, as well as getting there in the first place having navigated the traffic rammed into other roads.  I can see the zealots pushing as far as they can, they will try by whatever means to collapse transport use and their modus operandi is to make things as difficult and costly to comply with their mindset. 

[AlfredTheLittle]

8 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

“The service charge is £6332.70 per annum (2023) approx

The ground rent is £350 per annum (2023)

Council Tax is band E which is £2,737.25 per annum

The total square footage is 767 sqft approx“

….so basically £10k a year ownership costs even if you own it outright. Fuck me.

Plus £15k mortgage interest, so annual cost of at least £25k, which is using up the whole of the London average salary of £36k before tax (you'll need more if you have a student loan). And that's before being able to heat the place or eat! If only they included housing costs in inflation we'd have never got into this mess, but house price up === great!

[Yadda yadda yadda]

8 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

“The service charge is £6332.70 per annum (2023) approx

The ground rent is £350 per annum (2023)

Council Tax is band E which is £2,737.25 per annum

The total square footage is 767 sqft approx“

….so basically £10k a year ownership costs even if you own it outright. Fuck me.

I noted that the council tax is quoted at £2,402 higher up the page. Croydon council had dispensation to increase their council tax by 15% in April. The total increase is less than that as a proportion is paid to the London authority and that went up a little less.

Those flats are fucked. They're not viable. They will end up owned by a housing association.

Croydon is a proper shithole. I would say that it is unliveable but clearly people do live there.

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Croydon is a proper shithole.

Well this is the other thing, even I knew that Croydon had a reputation as a shithole. £10K in ownershop costs for a 700 square foot slave box in fucking Croydon...

[Yadda yadda yadda]

9 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Well this is the other thing, even I knew that Croydon had a reputation as a shithole. £10K in ownershop costs for a 700 square foot slave box in fucking Croydon...

If you speak to people in late middle age and older they will tell you that Croydon used to be a nice place. Areas to the south of Croydon are leafy and Croydon town centre would have been where they shopped in pre-online days. 20 years ago it was ok - not somewhere I would want to go but not somewhere I would specifically avoid. The council have had a big hand in its demise. They have destroyed the shopping centre through backing a botched redevelopment. As I understand it the main shopping centre is all but empty awaiting reconstruction that is not coming.

Croydon has excellent transport links. Lots of fast trains to Victoria, a good service to London Bridge, direct to Gatwick, the tramlink for local connections and Wimbledon plus it is an easy drive to the M25. It could be a decent place but it has been horrifically mismanaged. I can't see any way it will improve. These flats, and there are lots of similar developments, hammer nails into the coffin as they will decline into slums. Croydon town centre is destined to become ever poorer.

Imagine being the Asian in Hong Kong or Singapore who bought some of these off plan without ever visiting. Nightmare. They've even got currency decline to worry about.

[JoeDavola]

8 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Imagine being the Asian in Hong Kong or Singapore who bought some of these off plan without ever visiting. Nightmare.

Oh how awful for them....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

40 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

 

Imagine being the Asian in Hong Kong or Singapore who bought some of these off plan without ever visiting. Nightmare. They've even got currency decline to worry about.

I remember a story for a couple of years ago now about Chinese investors paying 1 bed flats in Liverpool for £150K, you could buy a terrace house for half that.

It seems they got stung. 

[Axeman123]

51 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Imagine being the Asian in Hong Kong or Singapore who bought some of these off plan without ever visiting.

If they ever get spooked and sell en masse these places could be almost worthless, you could imagine them trading hands for a few hundred quid plus assuming the liability. The cost of just physically living there:

1 hour ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Plus £15k mortgage interest, so annual cost of at least £25k, which is using up the whole of the London average salary of £36k before tax (you'll need more if you have a student loan). And that's before being able to heat the place or eat!

...essentially leaves nothing over for capital value. 

[JoeDavola]

1 hour ago, Bilbo said:

 service charge is going up from approximately 4k to 7k

 2k council tax plus 2k heating plus the 7k

painter/decorator was now £45-00 per hour

It's quite interesting to think of the wider ramifications of these soaring costs of just owning/using shelter in the UK.

I think it was @longtomsilver a while back who pointed out how the council tax and heating costs are so obscene for even a modest terrace house near him that. as someone with healthy 6 figures in equities who isn't forced to live in one place, it would make far more sense for him to go and live somewhere cheap and sunny for part or even all of the year.

Edited May 26, 2023 by JoeDavola

[Axeman123]

11 hours ago, Boon said:

Mumsnet are onto it:

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4813815-5-mortgage-rates

That is a funny read.

My favourite exchange:

I remember when they were 15%, we coped, so will you!

Hmm 15% on our mortgage is 75k a year, just in interest.

[spunko]

11 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

Yet you oppose inheritance tax?

I do but I oppose unearned wealth so if I were PM I'd deal with that particular bugbear. In the example I gave, inheritance tax doesn't make any difference - they just plan around it, as most wealthy people do, and rarely pay it. Seems to be a tax for the little people.

Unearned wealth is something I cannot fucking stand personally, but I think I'm pretty much alone in that viewpoint.

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, spunko said:

Unearned wealth is something I cannot fucking stand personally, but I think I'm pretty much alone in that viewpoint.

The flip side is though; do you want a society where men plant trees they personally will never get to sit in the shade of, or one where it is everyman for himself consumerism? If you think Englishness was worth something once, wasn't inheritance and a beleif in leaving a world worth living in when you go a part of that?

[spunko]

6 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The flip side is though; do you want a society where men plant trees they personally will never get to sit in the shade of, or one where it is everyman for himself consumerism? If you think Englishness was worth something once, wasn't inheritance and a beleif in leaving a world worth living in when you go a part of that?

I don't begrudge people too much in the current climate for leaving their kids an inheritance, because it's ultimately the only way many can own a home now.

The issue is just how bloody wrong that system is; it has never been the case (aside from the past ~15 years) that you need to wait for your parents to die before you can own your own home. Not sure what Englishness has to do with it.

Anyway, probably one for another thread...

Edited May 26, 2023 by spunko

[spygirl]

27 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

That is a funny read.

My favourite exchange:

I remember when they were 15%, we coped, so will you!

Hmm 15% on our mortgage is 75k a year, just in interest.

15% of a ~3 LTE mortgage will be struggle - and it was for people in the 90s.

15% of a 10x LTE is a no do.

MIRAS was at play, sothe cost just wasnt as much as they claim.

 

 

[JoeDavola]

I think the core problem here is the ever shrinking ability to buy 'essentials' i.e. shelter, food, heating, transport, relative to average salaries.

If the rich want to hand their kids money to do rich people stuff with then fine, many people don't need fancy holidays or holiday homes or really expensive cars to be happy...the problem is the basic life you can live as someone who starts with nothing and gets no state help just continues to get worse.

Edited May 26, 2023 by JoeDavola

[Yadda yadda yadda]

12 minutes ago, spunko said:

I do but I oppose unearned wealth so if I were PM I'd deal with that particular bugbear. In the example I gave, inheritance tax doesn't make any difference - they just plan around it, as most wealthy people do, and rarely pay it. Seems to be a tax for the little people.

Unearned wealth is something I cannot fucking stand personally, but I think I'm pretty much alone in that viewpoint.

Lots of people are against unearned wealth, the question is where to draw the line. Is it ok to give a relative a £10k watch? £1k? Presumably paying for a fancy wedding is fine because there is no residual monetary value. Or tattoos . What about education? It would be possible to spend £500k educating a child and that gives them massive advantages. They could squander it but people squander money too.

Could tax large cash or property transfers as income.

[spunko]

10 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Lots of people are against unearned wealth, the question is where to draw the line. Is it ok to give a relative a £10k watch? £1k? Presumably paying for a fancy wedding is fine because there is no residual monetary value. Or tattoos . What about education? It would be possible to spend £500k educating a child and that gives them massive advantages. They could squander it but people squander money too.

Could tax large cash or property transfers as income.

I wouldn't personally call buying a present for someone 'unearned wealth', even if they sell it and keep the monetary value.

Unearned wealth being according to my arbitrary definition, fatty boomer buying a house for £100k and flogging it for £400k 10 years later and waxing lyrical about their finely tuned financial prowess.

 

[spygirl]

15 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I think the core problem here is the ever shrinking ability to buy 'essentials' i.e. shelter, food, heating, transport, relative to average salaries.

If the rich want to hand their kids money to do rich people stuff with then fine, many people don't need fancy holidays or holiday homes or really expensive cars to be happy...the problem is the basic life you can live as someone who starts with nothing and gets no state help just continues to get worse.

I thinkthe core problem is leverage and weak £.

Rising IR will strenghne the pound and get rid of a lot of the imported infaltion.

The leverage sitations is more strange.

Itseverywhere,. much more than the 90s crash.

Credit cards,. PCP, mortgge BTL, 2nd home.

The people who have borroweed nleveraged are a pretty small percentage.

But they are doign all the borrowing o nthe bhealf of the rest of the population.

Leverage is a fucking killer.

 

 

[AWW]

6 minutes ago, spunko said:

Unearned wealth being according to my arbitrary definition, fatty boomer buying a house for £100k and flogging it for £400k 10 years later and waxing lyrical about their finely tuned financial prowess.

I think what you're against Spunko is ZIRP and government interference. The unearned wealth is a result of those things. Fix them and you don't need to worry about "unearned" wealth.

[Axeman123]

18 minutes ago, spunko said:

The issue is just how bloody wrong that system is; it has never been the case (aside from the past ~15 years) that you need to wait for your parents to die before you can own your own home.

100%.

That is far more about HPI than inheritence though IMO. Normal people didn't leave huge inheritences before HPI generally, and the few that did either saved up their wages like a madman or took risk with equities. Those two things are a world away from unearned house equity "winning the pools".

[AWW]

3 hours ago, onlyme said:

Once you are in it maybe, but we'll see what really happens in some areas, then there is the parking, as well as getting there in the first place having navigated the traffic rammed into other roads.  I can see the zealots pushing as far as they can, they will try by whatever means to collapse transport use and their modus operandi is to make things as difficult and costly to comply with their mindset. 

But you were worried about loading inside a LTN, not getting there. I live in north London, which is ground zero for LTNs, and I don't recognise the pre-LTN utopia that people invoke, where driving was quick and hassle-free.

The thing that annoys me about LTNs is that they only put them where it's easy, not where they are actually needed. For example, near me, there's a housing estate that used to be used as a rat run, which has been turned into an LTN. It's just housing, and it wasn't particularly congested, but they did it because it was easy and ticked a box. However, my daughter goes to school on a road that has three big schools within a few hundred yards. It's clogged up with traffic during pick up and drop off times. Lots of parents would like to cycle their kids to school, but won't as the roads are a nightmare. The council won't even put in a bike lane. It's too hard - the road is too narrow, they'd need to make it one-way for motor vehicles, parents who drive to school are very vocal, although they are a minority. The catchment area is just over a mile.

The "active travel lobby" are often called out as being very loud and getting their own way, but it's bollocks. They "get their own way" where it's easy and where the politicians can grab a photo op.

[HousePriceMania]

3 hours ago, Bilbo said:

Visited a distance relative who lives near Pool Dorset. She lives in an over 55s flat complex. Nice build of 45 flats.

The service charge is going up from approximately 4k to 7k. This she told us was mainly due to the new fire regulations brought in because of Grenfell. 

Haven't checked this out anybody have further information?

Lot's of residents will be badly hit as appropriate 2k council tax plus 2k heating plus the 7k. Lot of Dosh before you eat!

Also she said local painter/decorator was now £45-00 per hour.

She was hoping if she had to go into care the sale price of the flat would cover the cost... Hopefully is all I can say!

Those over 55 flats are impossible to re-sell and a load of the massive price cuts UKPL see are for them, they literally go for peanuts, most likely after the people who lived their sadlt pass away.  I'd imaging the stress of living there probably expedites their demise.