Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[wherebee]

Got this from another site: purports to show a multi-generational mortgage in Canada...

 

[Heart's Ease]

Look at the Rate go up from 1.45% in Jan 2022...!

[spygirl]

On 19/12/2020 at 10:11, spygirl said:

One thing I try to do is to put things into longish term perspective.

As far as the UK n housing, IIRC the majority of Brits still rented in the 60s.

From the 60s to 70s mortgages were not really a mass market product.

Its only a combination of the financial deregulation in the early 80s and the bulk of baby boomers (mid age boomer was born in mid 1950s) hitting 30, prime house buying age.

The whole 'cant loose with property' is a daft mindset, prevalent in the UK, which doesnt put the demographic change into perspective.

A lot of baby boomers went bust in the late 80s to early 90s slowdown, so its not that theyve not seen it before.

The assumption that banks are going to lend like they did in ~85-89 or 2002-2008ish is wrong. You can see it in the post 2008 mortgage lending stats.

One, unlike the 89-96 slowdown , which saw borrowers go bust, the 2008-today slowdown has seen the borrowers 'saved' but the banks go under.

Huge amounts of lending capacity has been destroyed and is not coming back. Most boomers houses are not going to sell at anywhere close to what they think its 'worth'

 

Two, the finsec used to create its down demand - the mass expansion othe finsec ~82 -> 2009ish, saw 100k of employees, all well paid, some with access to cheaper products.

The biggest winner for this job bonanza was the south - I dont men The City, which is whole sale trade, I mean the large number of retail banks and the support services around housing sales/mortgages - lawyers, treasury management, debt, life insurers  selling endowments etc etc.

Theres barely a fraction of the people still employed compare to ~85-2007.

The jobs have been automated, regulated away.

You want a mortgage today?

You go to a bank with ~20% deposit and verified income with a good track record and get a repayment mortgages.

Theres no vat array of scammers offering liar loans, allowing people without a pot to piss in a mortgage, which pushes up housing costs.

There's no magic repayment like an endowment  mortgage, which was the cause of the 80s boom - the repayment method was a made up WP return, so allowed people to borrow 2x the amount they could afford.

The liar loans and IO mortgage were the cause of the 2002-2010 bubble.

These have gone for resi customers.

Theres a massive adjustment for UK housing esp. in the South where the mass well paying jobs have gone and the high LTE multiples are a no go.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Almost 2 n half years after that post ...

Era of ‘massive’ UK house price rises nearing end, says OBR economist

David Miles says working from home, stalling population growth and higher interest rates will shape market

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/may/18/era-of-massive-uk-house-price-rises-nearing-end-says-obr-economist

Top tip to ukgov think tanks n OBR - Save money on gormless economists n other highly trained fuckwits. Just look what I've posted on here n TOS.

Tax credit sad face, Brexit n why ( EU migrants) - before Brexit was seen as possible, 10m -+2m Euers when they were still claiming 2.8m, Take this job n shove it .... And now Death of London

Sure HPI has been massive in London n SE.

But lot if places, that went ex growth in 90s - Nadah.

Chuck in 25ymortgage IR payments and you'll not make money from property.

Again, the biggest pain if 30y of IOBTL falls on owner occupiers as they reduce house prices to match the non existent equity.

The fall out in London/SE is going to be fucking massive.

 

 

 

[AWW]

22 hours ago, onlyme said:

In the changeover would proably have spent money on having stuff fixed / replaced / decorations as well maybe. Plus more fees for background checks and like and maybe more agent fees.

It was all very personal for him. He didn't like being told "No". He's now threatening to take me to the small claims court because I took a dehumidifier he'd been forced to buy by the letting agent to help with some damp. He wouldn't pay for the electricity it used, so I took it. I said fine, see you in court.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, AWW said:

It was all very personal for him. He didn't like being told "No". He's now threatening to take me to the small claims court because I took a dehumidifier he'd been forced to buy by the letting agent to help with some damp. He wouldn't pay for the electricity it used, so I took it. I said fine, see you in court.

Kipper under the floorboards. Bowl of piss under the kitchen kick board . If he’s selling and you consider him a twat, by the time he gets views they will have done their job. How bitter/aggrieved are you?

[Axeman123]

15 minutes ago, AWW said:

He wouldn't pay for the electricity it used, so I took it. I said fine, see you in court.

You would have been better denying all knowledge of it, gaslight him to his face by either claiming it was left in the airing cupboard or that there never even was a dehumidifier. It wouldn't have been on the move in inventory, so it depends if there were messages etc to prove it even existed.

The chances of him going to court are slim, but if you have admitted taking it in an email etc he might be stuborn enough.

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Kipper under the floorboards. Bowl of piss under the kitchen kick board . If he’s selling and you consider him a twat, by the time he gets views they will have done their job. How bitter/aggrieved are you?

Classic!

You could just loosen the bath drain u-bend last thing before you leave (don't leave finger prints!).

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

You would have been better denying all knowledge of it, gaslight him to his face by either claiming it was left in the airing cupboard or that there never even was a dehumidifier. It wouldn't have been on the move in inventory, so it depends if there were messages etc to prove it even existed.

The chances of him going to court are slim, but if you have admitted taking it in an email etc he might be stuborn enough.

Classic!

You could just loosen the bath drain u-bend last thing before you leave (don't leave finger prints!).

Mice /rats from the pet shop. Male and female popped in the loft. . Scatter some food , enough for em to breed. Will fuck him up.

Cockroaches. Same.

No1. Get some bats.

The fun you can have. He has to prove it. 

[Heart's Ease]

Fish fingers in the hollow curtain pole?

[spygirl]

Keep a sets of keys then go in when it's empty and take a sledge hammer to the toilets.

I've seen that happen afew few times.

 

[Wight Flight]

11 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Fish fingers in the hollow curtain pole?

That just has to be a euphemism.

[Heart's Ease]

2 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

That just has to be a euphemism.

I really can't remember whether they did this or put them behind the bath panel. It was one or the other. 

 

Edited May 20, 2023 by Heart's Ease

[Axeman123]

23 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Keep a sets of keys then go in when it's empty and take a sledge hammer to the toilets.

I've seen that happen afew few times.

 

That is criminal damage.

Getting a drainage manhole on the driveway up and dumping bags of postcrete down would probably be very expensive to undo, especially if undiscovered for days enabling a full cure. Plus side if unseen doing it is anyone passing by could theoretically have done it without needing keys.

[tank]

10 hours ago, spygirl said:

Almost 2 n half years after that post ...

Era of ‘massive’ UK house price rises nearing end, says OBR economist

David Miles says working from home, stalling population growth and higher interest rates will shape market

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/may/18/era-of-massive-uk-house-price-rises-nearing-end-says-obr-economist

Top tip to ukgov think tanks n OBR - Save money on gormless economists n other highly trained fuckwits. Just look what I've posted on here n TOS.

Tax credit sad face, Brexit n why ( EU migrants) - before Brexit was seen as possible, 10m -+2m Euers when they were still claiming 2.8m, Take this job n shove it .... And now Death of London

Sure HPI has been massive in London n SE.

But lot if places, that went ex growth in 90s - Nadah.

Chuck in 25ymortgage IR payments and you'll not make money from property.

Again, the biggest pain if 30y of IOBTL falls on owner occupiers as they reduce house prices to match the non existent equity.

The fall out in London/SE is going to be fucking massive.

 

 

 

Stalling population growth? 😃😃

The good news for the average Graun reader in Hampstead is that a lot more wonderful diversity is on the way courtesy of the big bad Tories. Just not in the form of porcelain skinned Agnieskja from Krakow.

We've had our net immigration level doubled since we left the EU. All those Poles and other EE have been quickly replaced with double the number of Asians, Arabs, Turks, Albanians, Nigerians, Sudanese etc. The UK's population is definitely not stalling - it is growing by a record 1 million a year - and interest rates are still well into negative territory given the CPI.

[spygirl]

8 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

That is criminal damage.

Getting a drainage manhole on the driveway up and dumping bags of postcrete down would probably be very expensive to undo, especially if undiscovered for days enabling a full cure. Plus side if unseen doing it is anyone passing by could theoretically have done it without needing keys.

Only if the criminal is caught.

All cases where Ive heard of is where LL has been a megadick, evicted he tenant, collected keys then left house empty.

Famiily member of tenant has used spare set of keys to go in and fuck LL over.

 

The issue is really that an idiot LL is behaving like a cunt to tenants who, even without smashing toilet, can really fuck the LL over.

 

 

[Phil]

“Fucking the LL over”. I love it. Should be a thread of its own. 

[Loki]

Leave the door open with a sign saying FREE COPPER

Anyone wants to take up the offer that's on them, nothing to do with you 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Leave the door open with a sign saying FREE COPPER

Anyone wants to take up the offer that's on them, nothing to do with you 

Classic. 

[Phil]

Just now, Phil said:

Classic. 

On leaving, hand keys over, shake hands, all smiles. Then go back next day with super glue to front and rear euro barrels. Cunt will cost em a fortune for emergency call out locksmith. Not to be advised if using the same agent, so I won’t on this occasion.

[Chewing Grass]

On 30/04/2023 at 19:03, Chewing Grass said:

Checked the Horse Price Index on the meat market earlier.

Last year at this time there were 5000 up for grabs.

Now there are only 4130.

Times are not hard enough yet for 'the cull' and fields are still being divided up near me and facilities built for silly little girls pets.

https://www.horsemart.co.uk/horses-for-sale.php

Just been on Horsemart, 4319 listed for reference.

[wherebee]

My little weathervane area in the south is running 45% above the long term average for numbers of properties for sale...

[One percent]

Just been reported on the radio that the average house price has hit a new high. Can’t find an article about it though 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, One percent said:

Just been reported on the radio that the average house price has hit a new high. Can’t find an article about it though 

Asking prices.

[One percent]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Asking prices.

Ah. Those are off the scale delusional. File under fantasy figures then.  

[honkydonkey]

Telegraph.

[HousePriceMania]

Just now, honkydonkey said:

Telegraph.

Stabilising HIGHER mortgage rates...

Are these people on glue ?