Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[spygirl]

As baby boomers pass away, several hundred thousand properties will be released for sale each year, says Neal Hudson, of BuiltPlace analysts. This is equivalent to around a fifth of all sales in a typical year.

That process is just beginning, says Hudson. “It will probably be over the next five or 10 years that we are going to really start to see it being quite a big factor in the market,” he adds.

There are two factors at play. First, the baby boomer generation is very big. Second, they are much more likely to own property than other cohorts.

Yep.

Scabby house owning demographic are a good 10-15 ahead of the UK as a whole.

 

[Formerly]

5 hours ago, Animal Spirits said:

https://archive.is/9smYW

 

@HousePriceMania might have provided some inspiration for the graphic beside their "Track the Crash" link at the end.

Edited May 14, 2023 by Formerly

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, spygirl said:

As baby boomers pass away, several hundred thousand properties will be released for sale each year, says Neal Hudson, of BuiltPlace analysts. This is equivalent to around a fifth of all sales in a typical year.

That process is just beginning, says Hudson. “It will probably be over the next five or 10 years that we are going to really start to see it being quite a big factor in the market,” he adds.

There are two factors at play. First, the baby boomer generation is very big. Second, they are much more likely to own property than other cohorts.

Yep.

Scabby house owning demographic are a good 10-15 ahead of the UK as a whole.

 

Talking of hudson

 

[sancho panza]

Leicestershire inventory update,we've come a ong logn way since August last year.avaialble inventory up from 3950 to 6624 a 70% increase in 8 months

 

 

 

Leicestershire county

Date                            Inventory                                Inv incl SSTC    

14/8/22                       3950

10/10/22                    4885                                             10416             

14/11/22                    5417                                             10188

25/1/23                      5664                                                9295

15/2/23                      6007                                                 9597

22/3/23                     6168                                                10002            

20/4/23                     6399                                               10494

14/5/23                      6624                                               10958

[MrXxxx]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/my-mortgage-is-increasing-by-700-a-month-and-i-don-t-know-what-to-do/ar-AA1bcHKe?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=0ace874418fb4a9290e78dfd65b35b92&ei=16

...consult you Plan B....what "nobody told you" you needed a Plan B?!

...and read the rest of the article, the 'sense of entitlement' made my 'pi$$ boil'!....don't worry, if you ask the government nicely they may even pay it for you [as well as your child minding costs] from my taxes, so you can spend your money on some house improvements!

Edited May 15, 2023 by MrXxxx

[Boon]

Some of these articles are never really that balanced, just cheap news headlines.

Taking the previous rate of 1.15% and mortgage cost, that kinda indicates a borrowing of £550k.

So they would have at least household income of way over £100k. 

Non-story really. They just will have less money than they used to, but of course its quite fashionable to plead hardship. If it's an actual house (not flat) in London and owned since 2015 there is a good chance the equity gains is 6 figures as well.

 

[Axeman123]

That first one is

Quote

a food consultant who runs chocolate tours

(WTF that is) and is paying an extra £700/month mortgage, but at the same time is geeting £1k a month free childcare. She is better off and still whining!

[Covid19 and life to go]

22 hours ago, spygirl said:

Who the fuck do they downsize to?

Who do they sell the probates to?

Corporations or the state.  The age of private home ownership is over.

[Plan-b]

5 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/my-mortgage-is-increasing-by-700-a-month-and-i-don-t-know-what-to-do/ar-AA1bcHKe?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=0ace874418fb4a9290e78dfd65b35b92&ei=16

...consult you Plan B....what "nobody told you" you needed a Plan B?!

...and read the rest of the article, the 'sense of entitlement' made my 'pi$$ boil'!....don't worry, if you ask the government nicely they may even pay it for you [as well as your child minding costs] from my taxes, so you can spend your money on some house improvements!

If you cant afford it then you'll have to sell up a 4 bed is far too much house for your small family I cant imagine why you would want such a large house other than greed and snobbery. Perhaps you could do a lot more chocolate tours, maybe expand into toffee trips I hear they are very popular.

Edited May 15, 2023 by Plan-b

[MrXxxx]

The real pain has yet to be felt [https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/the-rate-rise-hangover-two-thirds-of-12bn-inflation-linked-mortgage-hikes-are-yet-to-be-passed-on-to-homeowners-report-warns/ar-AA1bdgB3?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=a475de3854fe461aab60513e8f554591&ei=17]

QUOTE:

"According to a new report from think tank the Resolution Foundation, this will result in a £12billion total increase in annual mortgage costs by the end of this rate rising 'cycle'. 

However, the report says that only a third of that £12billion total rise has so far been passed on to homeowners in the form of higher monthly payments - meaning the worst could be yet to come....of the 7.5 million mortgaged households that will eventually be affected by the rate rising cycle, around half have yet to see a change in their mortgage rate...

...total mortgage repayments are set to rise by £5.3billion between the start of 2023 and the end of 2024. In this time around 1.6 million households are set to see their fixed-rate deals expire and will face an average increase in their annual mortgage bill of around £2,300. It is hard to accurately predict what will happen to mortgage rates over the next few years, but at the moment swap rates suggest they will remain above 4 per cent until the end of 2026"

 

,

a) factor in people 'making do and struggling' for ~6 months and/or the Banks/BS saying "Your time is up", and

b) any pre-election narratives about "Helping the housing market" offering price support, and then being 'forgotten' about when whoever gets in realizes there is no money for it this time,

and perhaps we can expect the property market bottom to be ~Mid to late 2025.

 

SOURCE [Resolution Foundation pdf] [https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2023/05/MPO-Q2-2023.pdf]

 

[sancho panza]

Had the following text from a friend today.His Mrs viewing houses.Wigston is a suburb of Leicestercirca 30,000 people..Looks like game on around here but not really surprising given rate rises,cost of living.

 

'Sarah just called me from her Car. Just viewed a property in Wigston. Estate Agents said market is completely dead and she has spent last few days telling vendors to lower prices if they want a sale. No punters calling them at all, staff sitting around doing nothing'

 

 

This is the LE2 data which includes Oadby which is next door to wigston.It has circa 120,000 population incl lot of students.Still 47 transaction for Dec is awful.The lwo for the coof was about 30.That was prob first month when people were buying with mrotgages sourced post Kwame kaze

https://www.streetlist.co.uk/le/le2

LE18 includes Wigston

Edited May 15, 2023 by sancho panza

[CVG]

Not having a dig, but this made me laugh. Spot the difference and discuss.

Scarborough

Durham

Bournemouth

Wigston

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, CVG said:

Not having a dig, but this made me laugh. Spot the difference and discuss.

Scarborough

Durham

Bournemouth

Wigston

Forgive my ignorance,I'm presuming green means theyve all sold higher than they were previously bought?

Thats amazing .WIgston has picked up a lot on the back of a general flight out of Leicester(which is degrading)

So it's looks like that area has hit the wall hard.Explains a lot.

Edited May 16, 2023 by sancho panza

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, CVG said:

Not having a dig, but this made me laugh. Spot the difference and discuss.

Scarborough

Durham

Bournemouth

Wigston

Dodgy mortgage broker at Wigston?

[HousePriceMania]

Some better news in Belfast @JoeDavola

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/house-prices-fall-for-first-time-since-covid-pandemic/1629951176.html

 

House prices ‘fall for first time since Covid pandemic’

 

[Plan-b]

Bear food is always welcome

House price crash? We’re at one minute to midnight

Most of the comments disagree -  

https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1769235/questions-buying-house-mortgage-rate

 

[CVG]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Forgive my ignorance,I'm presuming green means theyve all sold higher than they were previously bought?

Thats amazing .WIgston has picked up a lot on the back of a general flight out of Leicester(which is degrading)

So it's looks like that area has hit the wall hard.Explains a lot.

That's right. Green means sold for +ve real change since last sold. Light red (I think) means +nominal but -ve real. Dark red means -ve nominal. See individual example on RHS.

https://houseprices.io/?q=Wigs

[Phil]

30 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Bear food is always welcome

House price crash? We’re at one minute to midnight

Most of the comments disagree -  

https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1769235/questions-buying-house-mortgage-rate

 

I read some of the comments and think most are in denial . Me personally would rather buy a house (debt) with a high interest rate but with a low price tag. Not visa versa. A free one would be nicer.

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Plan-b said:

Bear food is always welcome

House price crash? We’re at one minute to midnight

Most of the comments disagree -  

https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1769235/questions-buying-house-mortgage-rate

 

It's 1:55 am and they're all so drunk they dont realise the nightclub is shutting.

[Wight Flight]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

It's 1:55 am and they're all so drunk they dont realise the nightclub is shutting.

Should have gone ugly early.

[Rare Bear]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

I read some of the comments and think most are in denial . Me personally would rather buy a house (debt) with a high interest rate but with a low price tag. Not visa versa. A free one would be nicer.

Girl, next door just married at near 40 has a BTL in Scotland. She's looking for a place to buy around here and when I last chatted to her a few months back was bemoaning the prices. I said to her that when interest rates head towards normal prices should ease. She said that she hoped rates would be back down to normal soon.

She's only seen near zero rates all of her adult life.

[sancho panza]

@JoeDavola dont know why noones talking about the lack of volume

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/house-prices-fall-for-first-time-since-covid-pandemic/1629951176.html

Edited May 16, 2023 by sancho panza

[JoeDavola]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

@JoeDavola dont know why noones talking about the lack of volume

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/house-prices-fall-for-first-time-since-covid-pandemic/1629951176.html

I'm surprised sales are down by only a third based on what I'm seeing. I'd love to see how many of those sales are to mortgage holders vs cash buyers.

At the end of the day as a potential buyer things are still shit as there's fuck all coming on the market, much of if not most of what is coming on the market is complete dross, and everything is very very expensive. If you were someone who was getting anywhere near the limit of their affordabiliy (with a mortgage) with the prices as they were before the IR rises, you have been completely priced out of the market since then by a combination of IR hikes, food/fuel inflation, and asking prices if anything continuing to rise.

The only thing that will boost the number of sales again will be a huge IR cut IMO - even then the cost of living is still way up so I'm not sure that really puts buyers in the same place they were in say 2020. Even the work from home dream seems to be ending for many which fuelled lots of purchases out in the sticks over the pandemic years, and also people selling up in England and moving to NI thinking they could work remotely forever on London wages.

But despite all the above I just see years of denial ahead. Fuck all on the market, and if you do want to buy a house the seller is still going to take you to the cleaners because most of them aren't in a rush to sell. My folks are sale agreed three weeks and haven't seen a single house even worth viewing. I'll be very surprised if they see anything in another 3 weeks.

The housing 'ladder' for most of my peers was already dead, it's even more dead now. Nobody I know is thinking about moving for the forseeable - most of my mates are in the houses they intend to spend the rest of their lives in.

Edited May 17, 2023 by JoeDavola

[onlyme]

22 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I'm surprised sales are down by only a third based on what I'm seeing. I'd love to see how many of those sales are to mortgage holders vs cash buyers.

At the end of the day as a potential buyer things are still shit as there's fuck all coming on the market, much of if not most of what is coming on the market is complete dross, and everything is very very expensive. If you were someone who was getting anywhere near the limit of their affordabiliy (with a mortgage) with the prices as they were before the IR rises, you have been completely priced out of the market since then by a combination of IR hikes, food/fuel inflation, and asking prices if anything continuing to rise.

The only thing that will boost the number of sales again will be a huge IR cut IMO - even then the cost of living is still way up so I'm not sure that really puts buyers in the same place they were in say 2020. Even the work from home dream seems to be ending for many which fuelled lots of purchases out in the sticks over the pandemic years, and also people selling up in England and moving to NI thinking they could work remotely forever on London wages.

But despite all the above I just see years of denial ahead. Fuck all on the market, and if you do want to buy a house the seller is still going to take you to the cleaners because most of them aren't in a rush to sell. My folks are sale agreed three weeks and haven't seen a single house even worth viewing. I'll be very surprised if they see anything in another 3 weeks.

The housing 'ladder' for most of my peers was already dead, it's even more dead now. Nobody I know is thinking about moving for the forseeable - most of my mates are in the houses they intend to spend the rest of their lives in.

Could be in an era of buy once, buy wisely.

Make the most of the flexibility you have for that first time buy and nail the timing as best you can.

 

[JoeDavola]

1 hour ago, onlyme said:

Could be in an era of buy once, buy wisely.

Make the most of the flexibility you have for that first time buy and nail the timing as best you can.

Yes I've been saying for the last couple of years that you should now be allowing about a year to complete a house move, i.e. list and sell one house, find and buy another i.e. full chain completion. And it's best if you can buy once and be done with it for life, or at least until you get so old you have to downsize.

Transaction costs are significant too - e.g. solicitors charging more than they used to. And apparently conveyencing takes 9 weeks now.

My folks refused to even start looking for a house until they were sale agreed on theirs, lets say they find a house two months after sale agreed and the people they want to buy from are of the same attitude so then in turn take two months, then 9 weeks conveyencing etc...it's a wonder any chain ever completes. Two of my mates and at least one of my brother's mates only managed to complete a chain in recent years because they moved in with their in-laws for a few months in between selling one house and finding another to buy.

You don't ever want to find yourself in a situation where you need to move house in a hurry, cause it just won't happen IMO.

I checked there actually on the little seaside town I was considering moving to and not only is virutally nothing selling for the last 6 months, a dump that did sell (which shocked me) has been quietly relisted again so someone must have wised up.

Edited May 17, 2023 by JoeDavola