Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[JoeDavola]

53 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

It depends. I’m 39 and people who are 5-10 years older than me who followed the same career path are fine. They graduated into a strong job market; got promoted quickly and housing was relatively affordable so they bought nice houses. I’m probably earning a similar amount nominal to what they were earning 10 years ago. There’s a definite cut off, and my sister who’s 41 has told me before she just wishes she’d been born 5 years earlier.

The thing is I’ve had it better than those people 5-10 years younger than me. I graduated pre GFC. Many of the entry level jobs that I did haven’t existed for a while as they’ve been offshored. Whilst housing has been stupidly priced it’s been a very good decade or so to have invested money in the stock market.

We are exactly the same age, and I graduated in about 06 so probably the same time as you. Started a graduate job right after I graduated and been working since.

The GFC and the housing crash in NI happened a couple of years after I graduated; houses that were £325K crashed to £170K over a 5 year-ish period, hitting a low in 2012 and inflating back up to what I consider bubble prices again (though not as bad) since.

So NI is actually a special case, as there was a kind of 'reset' a decade ago where some people my age did actually get a chance, although not as much of a chance as those who bought in the late 90's where the £325K house that 'crashed' to £170K was £80K.

I have both failed to buy a house when they were cheaper, and also failed to take advantage in the boom in IT jobs over the last 5 years in NI staying in a low stress but not well paid job while my friends got one pay rise after another, some of whom not earn basically double what I do - combined the last 10 years has been one huge financial mistake basically including not being in the stock market. My fault entirely, and I'll never be able to undo those mistakes without suddenly figuring out how to make an extra £200K post-tax or something, which aint happening.

But the reason for that slightly self-pitying last paragraph is that I see what you see, is that when you go through the generations in 5 year increments after myself, those 5 years younger have it worse, and 5 years younger again have it worse again and so on.

I know several people say 5 years younger than me who did a couple of degrees and are still in minimum wage work in their early 30's. No wealth saved, no real career experience. They are smart folk but the well paid 'office jobs' just aren't there outside of the IT jobs market which is a totally different animal to the wider jobs market.

The only thing that saves them is they have partners in similar positions so with two minimum wages coming in they can afford to rent a small house. If they were single they'd still be living in their parents house, or in a horrific HMO somewhere. Buying a house? Not a possibility for them at all, not at these prices and IR's. It's actually far less of a possibility than it was even a year ago (since IR's are way up but prices, shockingly, are still rising), and it was unlikely then too.

Edited May 13, 2023 by JoeDavola

[Guest]

6 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Yep for anyone who is say 35 and older it’s entirely possible the boomer wealth gap will affect them for the rest of their lives. It’s not going away any time soon Imo.

Yes, even if/when we do eventually get back to the point of policymakers seriously wanting housing to be cheap and abundant again 1950s-1990s-style it's going to take at least 12-15 years of concentrated effort to actually turn the situation around to a noticeable extent.

So take the year now, add how many years you think it will take for the prevailing wind to change direction, then add another 12-15 years. Even with some optimism that gets you to the late 2030s.

[One percent]

6 minutes ago, Darude said:

Yes, even if/when we do eventually get back to the point of policymakers seriously wanting housing to be cheap and abundant again 1950s-1990s-style it's going to take at least 12-15 years of concentrated effort to actually turn the situation around to a noticeable extent.

So take the year now, add how many years you think it will take for the prevailing wind to change direction, then add another 12-15 years. Even with some optimism that gets you to the late 2030s.

It’s never going to be cheap housing again if they keep importing well over a million new people every year.  Just wtf do the establishment think it’s doing?  Beggars belief. 

[Wight Flight]

11 minutes ago, One percent said:

It’s never going to be cheap housing again if they keep importing well over a million new people every year.  Just wtf do the establishment think it’s doing?  Beggars belief. 

They know exactly what they are doing.

There was a time when only property owners were allowed to vote.

Now it is a case that only property owners bother to vote. And they are loving it.

[One percent]

5 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

They know exactly what they are doing.

There was a time when only property owners were allowed to vote.

Now it is a case that only property owners bother to vote. And they are loving it.

It’s not just purchasing houses that has gone through the roof, renting has too.   

[Frank Hovis]

20 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

They know exactly what they are doing.

There was a time when only property owners were allowed to vote.

Now it is a case that only property owners bother to vote. And they are loving it.

 

Don't fall into the mistake of thinking homeowners are the enemy.

If someone owns one house and lives in it then they aren't part of any problem.

[Wight Flight]

Just now, Frank Hovis said:

 

Don't fall into the mistake of thinking homeowners are the enemy.

If someone owns one house and lives in it then they aren't part of any problem.

I wasn't.

Though i do wish they would stop objecting to all planning whilst simultaneously voting for 1m new residents every year.

[Frank Hovis]

7 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

I wasn't.

Though i do wish they would stop objecting to all planning whilst simultaneously voting for 1m new residents every year.

 

I would suggest that is generally two separate groupings.

I massively object to both and see the latter as the driver for the former.

[JoeDavola]

45 minutes ago, One percent said:

It’s never going to be cheap housing again if they keep importing well over a million new people every year.  Just wtf do the establishment think it’s doing?  Beggars belief. 

I don’t actually think this is all to do with immigration, though it’s factor.

Its to do with intergenerational wealth accumulation/storage and falling incomes in real terms, it’s more complex that just blaming ‘the immigrants’.

[Wight Flight]

12 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I would suggest that is generally two separate groupings.

I massively object to both and see the latter as the driver for the former.

I know you would like to think that but it isn't what i see.

When i prod the anti-build bunch on where we are meant to house all the immigrants i am automatically racist.

 

[Frank Hovis]

3 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

I know you would like to think that but it isn't what i see.

When i prod the anti-build bunch on where we are meant to house all the immigrants i am automatically racist.

 

 

It absolutely is what I see from those without a professional stake in building more houses (people working for councils, housing associations, developers).

[One percent]

13 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I don’t actually think this is all to do with immigration, though it’s factor.

Its to do with intergenerational wealth accumulation/storage and falling incomes in real terms, it’s more complex that just blaming ‘the immigrants’.

Agree but importing over a million people a year really isn’t going to help. It is like you say multifaceted. There is also the way in which foreign investors have been sold swathes of new build flats as an investment which are left empty. Then the rise in second homes and in some areas, the worst of all, holiday lets.  Population of my town has actually gone down and by quite a lot. However, there has been a massive amount of house building going on. These can only be for second homes and fhl.   

[JoeDavola]

5 minutes ago, One percent said:

Agree but importing over a million people a year really isn’t going to help. It is like you say multifaceted. There is also the way in which foreign investors have been sold swathes of new build flats as an investment which are left empty. Then the rise in second homes and in some areas, the worst of all, holiday lets.  Population of my town has actually gone down and by quite a lot. However, there has been a massive amount of house building going on. These can only be for second homes and fhl.   

Yes - intergenerational stores of ‘global’ wealth which is even worse.

[One percent]

3 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Yes - intergenerational stores of ‘global’ wealth which is even worse.

Behave joe. At some point you will inherit it. What will be your view then?  

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, One percent said:

Behave joe. At some point you will inherit it. What will be your view then?  

Exactly the same, why wouldn’t it be?

[reformed nice guy]

19 minutes ago, One percent said:

Agree but importing over a million people a year really isn’t going to help. It is like you say multifaceted. There is also the way in which foreign investors have been sold swathes of new build flats as an investment which are left empty. Then the rise in second homes and in some areas, the worst of all, holiday lets.  Population of my town has actually gone down and by quite a lot. However, there has been a massive amount of house building going on. These can only be for second homes and fhl.   

The UK population last had a replacement break even birth rate in 1973

All population growth since then has been immigration. If they population was allowed to stay the same then things would have been 100x fairer imo

[montecristo]

7 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

We are exactly the same age, and I graduated in about 06 so probably the same time as you. Started a graduate job right after I graduated and been working since.

The GFC and the housing crash in NI happened a couple of years after I graduated; houses that were £325K crashed to £170K over a 5 year-ish period, hitting a low in 2012 and inflating back up to what I consider bubble prices again (though not as bad) since.

So NI is actually a special case, as there was a kind of 'reset' a decade ago where some people my age did actually get a chance, although not as much of a chance as those who bought in the late 90's where the £325K house that 'crashed' to £170K was £80K.

I have both failed to buy a house when they were cheaper, and also failed to take advantage in the boom in IT jobs over the last 5 years in NI staying in a low stress but not well paid job while my friends got one pay rise after another, some of whom not earn basically double what I do - combined the last 10 years has been one huge financial mistake basically including not being in the stock market. My fault entirely, and I'll never be able to undo those mistakes without suddenly figuring out how to make an extra £200K post-tax or something, which aint happening.

But the reason for that slightly self-pitying last paragraph is that I see what you see, is that when you go through the generations in 5 year increments after myself, those 5 years younger have it worse, and 5 years younger again have it worse again and so on.

I know several people say 5 years younger than me who did a couple of degrees and are still in minimum wage work in their early 30's. No wealth saved, no real career experience. They are smart folk but the well paid 'office jobs' just aren't there outside of the IT jobs market which is a totally different animal to the wider jobs market.

The only thing that saves them is they have partners in similar positions so with two minimum wages coming in they can afford to rent a small house. If they were single they'd still be living in their parents house, or in a horrific HMO somewhere. Buying a house? Not a possibility for them at all, not at these prices and IR's. It's actually far less of a possibility than it was even a year ago (since IR's are way up but prices, shockingly, are still rising), and it was unlikely then too.

Easy.  Go contracting and make it in 3 years.

Edited May 13, 2023 by montecristo

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Don't fall into the mistake of thinking homeowners are the enemy.

If someone owns one house and lives in it then they aren't part of any problem.

Only if they repeat the parrot line “we should tax the rich”.

U.K. residential housing is worth £8 trillion. That’s where the vast majority of the wealth is. If they happened to over leverage and be a bit fucked right now they have my sympathy unless they parrot such nonsense.

Leopard. Meet face.

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

I wasn't.

Though i do wish they would stop objecting to all planning whilst simultaneously voting for 1m new residents every year.

This is a personal bug bear of mine. The virtue signalling pro immigration whilst being massive NIMBY’s crowd. They are the worst of the worst. You can be pro one but not the other. To be pro both just shows you as an absolute cunt that hates the young.

[One percent]

20 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

This is a personal bug bear of mine. The virtue signalling pro immigration whilst being massive NIMBY’s crowd. They are the worst of the worst. You can be pro one but not the other. To be pro both just shows you as an absolute cunt that hates the young.

What worries me is that we are nowhere near being self sufficient food wise. Yet we keep importing useless eaters and building on productive land. It’s not going to end well 

[Rare Bear]

7 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

The UK population last had a replacement break even birth rate in 1973

All population growth since then has been immigration. If they population was allowed to stay the same then things would have been 100x fairer imo

Without a doubt.

[Rare Bear]

5 hours ago, One percent said:

What worries me is that we are nowhere near being self sufficient food wise. Yet we keep importing useless eaters and building on productive land. It’s not going to end well 

The population needs to be down to WW2 levels. Even then food had to be imported but I'm assuming that agriculture might be a bit more efficient these days.

[Phil]

I hope to get a £360k midlands gaff for £175k  Durham within a 15 mile radius of…….. not an ex Coal town . June 22nd will be a big data day  for us. I will be the cunt that pays above the local average. I fuckin hate myself . Dog eat dog.
At least I’m w…….

[Animal Spirits]

House prices face a looming hit – from the baby boomers who got rich off property

"But this means that a vast, disproportionate chunk of Britain’s homes are owned by a sector of the population that, according to the average life expectancy which fell dramatically during the pandemic, is about to die"

@spygirl Demographics is something you've mentioned before.

https://archive.is/9smYW

Oldest of the Boomer generation is currently 77, youngest 59.

A bit of a wind up piece for the regulars judging by some of the comments, with some exceptions after a quick scroll through:

Edited May 14, 2023 by Animal Spirits

[spygirl]

4 hours ago, Animal Spirits said:

House prices face a looming hit – from the baby boomers who got rich off property

"But this means that a vast, disproportionate chunk of Britain’s homes are owned by a sector of the population that, according to the average life expectancy which fell dramatically during the pandemic, is about to die"

@spygirl Demographics is something you've mentioned before.

https://archive.is/9smYW

Oldest of the Boomer generation is currently 77, youngest 59.

A bit of a wind up piece for the regulars judging by some of the comments, with some exceptions after a quick scroll through:

Yes.

UK was always going to have a problem - baby busters followed baby boomers.

However that hit has been made a lot worse due to other factors -

Changes in work n employment.

Massive move from Northern industry n manufacturing to Southern services occurred from late 70s.

However, to make the change doubly worse, Southern services have taken a massive hit since 2008. I.e there arnt a huge number of well paying jobs anywhere.

 

And BTL which has removed 20y of ftbs. 

The pain- and lacking of equity of the under 45s will now be felt by older OO as they have to compete for buyers who have much less money n equity.

In my case, I reckon in Scabby, which has both bad traits by the bucket, homeowners over, say, 55, outnumber potential/able to ftbs under 35 by about 20 to 1. Maybe even more.

Who the fuck do they downsize to?

Who do they sell the probates to?

 

 

Edited May 14, 2023 by spygirl