Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

And everyone's ma wants them to live near them, even if the houses are over twice as expensive now even inflation adjusted.

My Mum agrees that houses are a rip off near her and Dad, are a rip off in places like the Four Winds, and BT9 and agrees that I shouldn't buy a city centre apartment. So that's East, Central, South Belfast out of bounds. And obviously North and West are out of bounds as they're full of those 'orrible Catholics

When I say I'm considering moving somewhere a decent train-ride (40-ish mins) from Belfast so I can get a modest detached, she goes "oh no don't be moving that far away".

"So where do you suggest I DO move then Mum?"

*blank stare* followed by "WELL I DON'T KNOW DO I! JUST NOT THERE!"

Found just the place for you....

...and it's FREE as well!...what's not to like?

[JoeDavola]

Just now, MrXxxx said:

Found just the place for you....

...and it's FREE as well!...what's not to like?

A free box for me to live in. Sorted.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Special pleading from the property owners, which seems to be falling on deaf ears.

(Todays telegraph https://archive.is/0ig0X)

Meanwhile Starmer:

It really looks like house prices are getting sacrificed, IMO both parties trying to outdo each other on it is so the young don't feel the need to actually to out and vote.

Yeah, yeah, yeah...heard it all before....hopefully the electorate won't be suckered in a second time, or is it a third [Fourth, Fifth....]?...what is it they say "Fool me once, shame on you!...fool me twice, shame on me!"

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Special pleading from the property owners, which seems to be falling on deaf ears.

(Todays telegraph https://archive.is/0ig0X)

QUOTE:"A cornerstone of the legislation is the scrapping of Section 21, or ‘no-fault’ evictions, which will make it harder for landlords to remove tenants who refuse to pay rent or trash the property."

What a load of BS, to evict a non-payer you would use a S8, as a) it's not open to questioning by the judge i.e "Are you at least 2 months in arrears?..yes, eviction", and b) it can't be appealed [only on a 'point of law' in the hearing].

QUOTE:"Backbench Tory MPs fear the new laws could prompt swathes of landlords to exit the market, which they say would constrain rental housing supply and lead to a full-blown housing crisis."

Can never understand this, where do these houses go then?...only one of two options, 1) The landlord keeps the property and doesn't let it out [unlikely for most as they are leveraged]. or 2) they sell up, thus relieving the rental sector of at least one person, so no change in the amount of competition for property lettings.

..and further:

QUOTE: "Repossession to sell up will also be added as a grounds for eviction to Section 8. But to sell up, landlords will need to go through the small claims courts and face year-long delays."

So the LL right is not being reduced, as before it was part of a S21, now its part of a S8.

[Axeman123]

13 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

QUOTE: "Repossession to sell up will also be added as a grounds for eviction to Section 8. But to sell up, landlords will need to go through the small claims courts and face year-long delays."

and hopefully perjury charges if they mysteriously don't end up selling the property...

[leonardratso]

53 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

A free box for me to live in. Sorted.

is that your da pissing on your new house?

[HousePriceMania]

 

[sancho panza]

https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2023/5/spring-market-stalls-as-buyers-wait-for-price-drops--lonres

The prime London market appears to be lacking its usual spring buzz as buyers wait for prices to drop research suggests.

Analysis of the prime London market by property data company LonRes shows sales activity remained low in April. 

Agreed sales for the month were at a record low, excluding the lockdown-affected April 2020, and down almost 35% annually.

However, sales taken over the course of the year to date are only 1.4% below the pre-pandemic average between 2017 and 2019.

Across all prime London areas, the average discount to asking price rose to 9.1%, the highest in more than three and a half years, LonRes said.

Around half the properties that sold in April saw their asking price reduced.

Additionally, the number of properties under offer, a lead indicator, was 11.7% lower than a year earlier, suggesting that activity is unlikely to increase significantly over the coming months, LonRes said.

In some positive data, new instructions in April were up by 8.8% on April last year, taking the year to date rise to 9.2%.  

The number of properties being withdrawn from sale is also well below its longer-term trend level.

Average values across prime London also showed a slight fall in April, with an annual decline of 0.9%.  

Prime inner London was the best performing area, recording annual growth for the first time in six months where it was up 3.5%.

The market is looking better at the top-end though, with £5m+ sales volumes in April up 26.1% annually and 58.2% above the April pre-pandemic average.

The number of properties going under offer in April also grew, 13.6% up on a year earlier.  

Commenting on the findings, Anthony Payne, managing director of LonRes, said: “As the peak selling season enters its stride, there are continued signs that the wider Prime London housing market is slowing.  Anecdotally agents are telling us that there is no shortage of buyers and those buyers have money to spend.

“However, the housing market is a sector underpinned by confidence and at the moment sellers are referencing prices of yesteryear, while buyers are looking to a future in which they expect prices to fall.  There’s a gap between the two, that is causing the market to stall.

“For those vendors who fail to recognise the true value of their home in today’s market, the only path is one that leads to a downward price drift.  Small price reductions that edge towards the true value of a property frequently result in a bigger reduction later down the line. 

“Our data shows, new instructions or properties coming up for sale are on the rise, which for buyers means more choice.  It’s a competitive marketplace, which for anyone seriously wanting to sell, means competitive pricing.  Buyers have time and indeed are taking the time, to sit it out.”

[Democorruptcy]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

“For those vendors who fail to recognise the true value of their home in today’s market, the only path is one that leads to a downward price drift.  Small price reductions that edge towards the true value of a property frequently result in a bigger reduction later down the line.

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.

“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

[spygirl]

12 hours ago, sancho panza said:

https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2023/5/spring-market-stalls-as-buyers-wait-for-price-drops--lonres

The prime London market appears to be lacking its usual spring buzz as buyers wait for prices to drop research suggests.

Analysis of the prime London market by property data company LonRes shows sales activity remained low in April. 

Agreed sales for the month were at a record low, excluding the lockdown-affected April 2020, and down almost 35% annually.

However, sales taken over the course of the year to date are only 1.4% below the pre-pandemic average between 2017 and 2019.

Across all prime London areas, the average discount to asking price rose to 9.1%, the highest in more than three and a half years, LonRes said.

Around half the properties that sold in April saw their asking price reduced.

Additionally, the number of properties under offer, a lead indicator, was 11.7% lower than a year earlier, suggesting that activity is unlikely to increase significantly over the coming months, LonRes said.

In some positive data, new instructions in April were up by 8.8% on April last year, taking the year to date rise to 9.2%.  

The number of properties being withdrawn from sale is also well below its longer-term trend level.

Average values across prime London also showed a slight fall in April, with an annual decline of 0.9%.  

Prime inner London was the best performing area, recording annual growth for the first time in six months where it was up 3.5%.

The market is looking better at the top-end though, with £5m+ sales volumes in April up 26.1% annually and 58.2% above the April pre-pandemic average.

The number of properties going under offer in April also grew, 13.6% up on a year earlier.  

Commenting on the findings, Anthony Payne, managing director of LonRes, said: “As the peak selling season enters its stride, there are continued signs that the wider Prime London housing market is slowing.  Anecdotally agents are telling us that there is no shortage of buyers and those buyers have money to spend.

“However, the housing market is a sector underpinned by confidence and at the moment sellers are referencing prices of yesteryear, while buyers are looking to a future in which they expect prices to fall.  There’s a gap between the two, that is causing the market to stall.

“For those vendors who fail to recognise the true value of their home in today’s market, the only path is one that leads to a downward price drift.  Small price reductions that edge towards the true value of a property frequently result in a bigger reduction later down the line. 

“Our data shows, new instructions or properties coming up for sale are on the rise, which for buyers means more choice.  It’s a competitive marketplace, which for anyone seriously wanting to sell, means competitive pricing.  Buyers have time and indeed are taking the time, to sit it out.”

There isnt a 'spring market' in housing.

The spring sales *ARE* the housing market FFS.

If sprigns shit, then rest of the year will be terrible.

Esp as BoE has just said they are going to pull fingers out on IR.

Id hazard we've another 2% to go on IR after that little speech yesterday.

BoE - 6% base.

Resi Mortgage - 8%-9%

IO BTL - 12%-15%

 

Edited May 18, 2023 by spygirl

[Boon]

Now I track London +1 miles on Rightmove, here are the listings totals on Rightmove for sale:

You can see that the total number of properties has yet to exceed November 2022, when people started pulling their properties, because who wants to sell at Christmas time.

The 'added in last 24 hours' number is actually quite good, almost near what it was pre-pandemic. But the overall number are slow, so I can only conclude that a lot of these 'new' properties are simply price reductions of existing stock, and also the number of genuinely new listings is only slightly above the numbers of sales.

But I get the feeling the rate of sales and the rate of fresh listings are both rather slow.

Strangely enough the rental market does not show the same trend:

This has absolutely exploded upwards, YTD the listing numbers are up almost 50% and 10% in the last 30 days (compared to less than 10% YTD for listings). So much for a shortage of properties for rent!

If I had to guess what's causing this, it is BTR spamming (one development can have multiple ads) but also people not willing to crystallise a loss on the sale market and renting instead.

Rents are up quite a lot vs pre-pandemic but I think peaked last year with increased energy costs acting as a drag. In some areas the BTR flats also act as a bit of a ceiling on price. A private block (even a new build) like-for-like is rarely going to go for more than a BTR one because the latter usually includes more things for the money, ie internet, co-working, gym, communal areas, on-site maintenance.

Another thing I've seen, which I don't know if may become a trend, longer contracts like 3 years in exchange for lower rental cost, below the current market value anyway. Don't know how this squares with the latest laws but also should be a thing. 

[Axeman123]

Something you never expected to see as a headline, unless as a "project fear" type threat:

Quote

House prices will fall under Labour government, says Keir Starmer

• Labour leader wants to see ‘many more houses are built – and that the price comes down’

Maybe he was being taken out of context, well:

Quote

A Labour government will try to get house prices falling by boosting supply, Sir Keir Starmer has said as he revealed his party is open to building on green belt land. The Labour leader said his party would give local areas the ability to build on the greenbelt where it would not spoil the beauty of the countryside. Sir Keir claimed that house prices would come down if a Labour government can build more houses. Asked if a Labour government will have house prices coming down rather than going up, Mr Starmer told Times Radio: “Oh, yes.” “At the moment, one of the reasons that house prices are so high is because people hold land, trying to ensure that it gains as much value as possible,” he said.

The Labour leader added: “Developers and landowners actually have a vested interest in not building so many houses, because that keeps the price high. We want to change that model and make sure that many, many more houses are built – and that the price comes down.”

Sir Keir later clarified on ITV’s Good Morning Britain that he wanted house prices to fall in relation to wages – saying building more homes will “hopefully bring down the price when measured against wages”.

Sure he "clarified" a bit on ITV that he only meant relative to wages, but I suspect that is just a fig leaf. It really seems like we are on boys, no more props!

Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-starmer-house-prices-greenbelt-b2340420.html

Edited May 18, 2023 by Axeman123
link knobhead!

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

Something you never expected to see as a headline, unless as a "project fear" type threat:

Maybe he was being taken out of context, well:

Sure he "clarified" a bit on ITV that he only meant relative to wages, but I suspect that is just a fig leaf. It really seems like we are on boys, no more props!

Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-starmer-house-prices-greenbelt-b2340420.html

 

[HousePriceMania]

Who'd want to be forced from a < 1% APR mortgage to the SVR ?



 

[JoeDavola]

6 hours ago, spygirl said:

BoE - 6% base.

Resi Mortgage - 8%-9%

IO BTL - 12%-15%

[Dave Bloke]

On 17/05/2023 at 13:45, JoeDavola said:

Honest question, does anyone actually like the all-grey decor you see in modern renovations like this:

Source: https://www.propertypal.com/37-ardenlee-parade-belfast/833060

Grey is the new avocado 🥑🥑🥑

[Chewing Grass]

5 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

You've reminded me of Rodney Starmer so this is one on the Keir portfolio, had a thing about Donkey Breeding.

Anyone know if its been done up?

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.2439187,-0.0063683,3a,75y,180.63h,84.1t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sDvzAZSPQzxHKjZGuVYgIdA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en

 

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/officers/iHICuMDAmryEUJwVT2-jXPLu_Ps/appointments

[One percent]

Have we had this one.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12098707/Era-massive-house-price-rises-says-OBR-chief.html

The era of 'massive' house price rises might be drawing to a close, according to a Treasury watchdog chief.

Professor David Miles, a senior economist at the Office for Budget Responsibility, said the forces that have been driving the extraordinary surge since the 1990s are likely to be 'weaker' in the next 40 years.

In a speech, he pointed to slowing population growth and an increase in remote working as reasons why there will be less upwards pressure.

Slowing population growth?    

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, One percent said:

 

Slowing population growth?    

[Ash4781b]

10 hours ago, spygirl said:

There isnt a 'spring market' in housing.

The spring sales *ARE* the housing market FFS.

If sprigns shit, then rest of the year will be terrible.

Esp as BoE has just said they are going to pull fingers out on IR.

Id hazard we've another 2% to go on IR after that little speech yesterday.

BoE - 6% base.

Resi Mortgage - 8%-9%

IO BTL - 12%-15%

 

Blimey 6% base. Going into an election 

[One percent]

2 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

Blimey 6% base. Going into an election 

Quite worryingly, we might then get ‘take the knee’ Starmer.    Rock and a hard place i think. 

[Wight Flight]

29 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

Blimey 6% base. Going into an election 

Won't someone spare a thought for the landlords with their 3% yields?

[Axeman123]

42 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Won't someone spare a thought for the landlords with their 3% yields?

When they sell to another landlord at 75% off that becomes a 12% yield.

 

[Wight Flight]

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

When they sell to another landlord at 75% off that becomes a 12% yield.

 

Agreed. 

The figures just don't add up unless they are banking on mad capital gains.

Any landlord that paid a price more than 10x the annual rent deserves all that is coming to them.

My place is valued at 40x rent. That is dotcom valuation territory.

[One percent]

2 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

Won't someone spare a thought for the landlords with their 3% yields?

No. They can fuckoff.