Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[AWW]

21 hours ago, xyz said:

So a tiny part of London has mostly European immigrants getting along, therefore hordes of third worlders that are the majority of immigrants aren't a problem. Not buying it I'm afraid. Where is this small slice of utopia you live in by the way?

It's not just Finsbury Park is it? I've got relatives from Bethnal Green, West Ham, Ilford and various other parts of East London that were all majority white when they were born and are all ethnic shitholes now.  

They've always been shitholes!

[belfastchild]

2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Fucking Whitehead. Why the fuck are there crowds of Indians going to whitehead.

Blackhead path, gobbins, was the steam train running today?

Whitehead is a nice wee place, thats why.

Edited May 28, 2023 by belfastchild
double post

[JoeDavola]

34 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Blackhead path, gobbins, was the steam train running today?

Whitehead is a nice wee place, thats why.

Was in Whitehead yesterday - didn't see any steam train.

I did see the sailing club were having an open day. I took a dander round Whitehead and did the Blackhead path, thankfully the gammy leg held up.

You are coorrect it is a nice wee place.

Edited May 28, 2023 by JoeDavola

[Sue Lowe]

3 hours ago, AWW said:

They've always been shitholes!

But they were OUR shitholes!

Actually, Ilford had a really good cricket club, played some great, competitive but sociable fixtures against them. Last I heard the bar didn’t serve alcohol anymore after a members’ vote.

[No One]

On 26/05/2023 at 11:19, Democorruptcy said:

The thing that should be removed, is cash from UK banks. Banks are getting 4.5% on their deposits at the BoE, paid for by taxpayers, while banks are paying savers some awful rates. Somebody on social media go viral about starting a bank run.

Well there are good offers out there with FSCS protection, you just have to look. 

I know the forum despises Martin Lewis, but go on MSE savings and see whats on offer

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, No One said:

Well there are good offers out there with FSCS protection, you just have to look. 

I know the forum despises Martin Lewis, but go on MSE savings and see whats on offer

There are offers from firms that might have to pay more for funding. I really meant the larger firms. Nationwide giving customers £100 because they have made huge profits, they have a 1.25% saver.

[spygirl]

Popular press picking up the SVRs.

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/1775042/Mortgage-rates-inflation-Bank-of-England-BoE-base-rates-inflation-SVR/amp

It’s a costly mistake, with the average SVR charging 7.50 percent and a handful charging more than eight percent.

[One percent]

3 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Popular press picking up the SVRs.

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/1775042/Mortgage-rates-inflation-Bank-of-England-BoE-base-rates-inflation-SVR/amp

It’s a costly mistake, with the average SVR charging 7.50 percent and a handful charging more than eight percent.

That was about the average of my interest rate throughout the life of my mortgage. What, did these idiots think that historically low interest rates were going to be around forever?  

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, One percent said:

That was about the average of my interest rate throughout the life of my mortgage. What, did these idiots think that historically low interest rates were going to be around forever?  

But did you borrow 11x + LTE?

Early 90s people were struggling with 10% at sub 5x LTE.

 

 

[One percent]

2 minutes ago, spygirl said:

But did you borrow 11x + LTE?

Early 90s people were struggling with 10% at sub 5x LTE.

 

 

I remember going to the building society to buy my second place. Move from a flat to a house.  Wanted slightly more than three times main earner plus one times second earner.
 

Woman said, oh, no we can’t possibly do that. 

I don’t always ‘get’ stuff, so just stood up, reached for my coat, saying, oh well then. 
 

just a minute she says and offered us what we wanted. 
 

never trusted the idiots since. 

[Phil]

Got served my S21  on the 1st of April. Got given 3 months notice ( how kind). Found a place and hand in the keys a month early . Went from £750 to £950, a tad smaller, bit better situated but very poor, usual shit tip, the internal doors don’t shut properly, tiny  kitchen for one person etc. 

moved Friday, so Thursday went to tell next door but one to the left of us we are off. We had  a 3 bed semi, and the adjacent is also rented, same slumlord owns 4 on the road, saying it wasn’t offered to us to buy, hasn’t been on the market and I suspect it will be, with a big extension ( 5 doors up have done a massive extension, so planning, no probs) it could easily be a 5/6 bed HMO for the new people with a renovation of 70k. I know the LL bought it for 100k 2012 ish.
 

 

[Phil]

Just now, Phil said:

Got served my S21  on the 1st of April. Got given 3 months notice ( how kind). Found a place and hand in the keys a month early . Went from £750 to £950, a tad smaller, bit better situated but very poor, usual shit tip, the internal doors don’t shut properly, tiny  kitchen for one person etc. 

moved Friday, so Thursday went to tell next door but one to the left of us we are off. We had  a 3 bed semi, and the adjacent is also rented, same slumlord owns 4 on the road, saying it wasn’t offered to us to buy, hasn’t been on the market and I suspect it will be, with a big extension ( 5 doors up have done a massive extension, so planning, no probs) it could easily be a 5/6 bed HMO for the new people with a renovation of 70k. I know the LL bought it for 100k 2012 ish.
 

 

Quick question, after signing a 12 month agreement, what’s the min notice I can give without being fucked by the legal scum? I’m hoping to go in in September. County Durham looks a good place, if, as I have read you stay away from the old collieries and don’t act like a billy big balls.

[Wight Flight]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Quick question, after signing a 12 month agreement, what’s the min notice I can give without being fucked by the legal scum? I’m hoping to go in in September. County Durham looks a good place, if, as I have read you stay away from the old collieries and don’t act like a billy big balls.

If the LL cannot re-let you are liable for the full 12 months.

If they can then it will be down to what is in your lease. Probably the agents costs.

[Rare Bear]

10 hours ago, belfastchild said:

Wasn't Portstewart by any chance?

Portstewart sleepy and quiet?

My mother was of the opinion that Coleraine got the university so that the landladies on portstewart would have students paying rent outside the holiday season.

 

[belfastchild]

6 hours ago, Rare Bear said:

Portstewart sleepy and quiet?

My mother was of the opinion that Coleraine got the university so that the landladies on portstewart would have students paying rent outside the holiday season.

 

Meant to say Castlerock but Joe wouldnt know where that was! Castlerock was the place where the EA said he hadnt sold a house to a local couple in over 6 months.

[spygirl]

11 hours ago, One percent said:

I remember going to the building society to buy my second place. Move from a flat to a house.  Wanted slightly more than three times main earner plus one times second earner.
 

Woman said, oh, no we can’t possibly do that. 

I don’t always ‘get’ stuff, so just stood up, reached for my coat, saying, oh well then. 
 

just a minute she says and offered us what we wanted. 
 

never trusted the idiots since. 

You can see how we ended up in this mess. A mess that is becoming massive as IRs normalise/go higher.

In the first ~20y of mass market mortgages ~1965-1985, the lending mutlples were pretty constrained and the banks pretty much stuck to them.

There did used to be meetings where the banks agreed how much theyd lend. This was more a competition to see how *little* they could lend.

Then the magic of endowments went nuts from ~1985ish and banks discarded the old limits, allowing  5x 6x lending.

This blew up just 5y later, houses dropping the last ~10y of gains. Back to 1985 in ~1996.

Then it ticked up from ~97ish, til the ~2002 when the banks ran out of good/credible borrowers

Part of that was just the baby busters, who were far less numerous than the boomers.

The other part was the demute of the BS, who suddenly found that the could suddenly expand their lending ~3x+ compared to their mutual days. But there was no one to lend to, at least of sane multiples, or with valid earning.

So in come IO mortgages, self cert, IO BTL

10 years - 97 - 07. Kaboom! ~80% of the UK banks go bust.

 

 

 

Edited May 29, 2023 by spygirl

[One percent]

6 minutes ago, spygirl said:

You can see who we ended up in this mess. A mess hat is becoming massive as IRs normalise/go higher.

In the first ~20y of mass market mortgages ~1965-1985, the lending mutlples were pretty constrained and the banks pretty much stuck to them.

There did used to be a meeting where the banks agree what much theyd lend. This was more a competition to see little they could lend.

Then the magic of endowments went nuts from ~1985ish and banks discarded the old limits, allowing  5x 6x lending.

This blew up just 5y later, houses dropping the last ~10y of gains.

Then it ticked up from ~97ish, til the ~2002 where the banks ran out of leners.

Part ofthat was just the baby busters, who were far less numerous than the boomers.

The other part was the demute of the BS, who suddenly found that the could suddenly expand their lending ~3x+ compared to the mutual days. But there was no one to lend to, at least of sane multiples, or with valid earning.

So in come IO mortgages, self cert, IO BTL

10 years - 97 - 07. Kaboom! ~80% of the UK banks go bust.

 

 

 

Wonder what happens now, it’s in an even greater mess. 

[spygirl]

48 minutes ago, One percent said:

Wonder what happens now, it’s in an even greater mess. 

It is.

The 80s/90s boom n bust was over in ~10y - 88 -> 98.

The 2002 boom has barely been cleared, 21 years down the line.

Of the resi IO mortgages, which madeup 90%+ of mortgages sold between 2000 to ~2012ish, les than 50% of have been sorted - some people moved onto repayment, OAPS moved onto RIO mortgages.

Theres still a lot who, until recently, were on very low n cheap monthly payments of IO mortgages - 4% IO on ~200k is 8k/y, Doable for average household income.

Even with just IO i..e missing the extra 30%/40% extra needed for the repayment portion, that IO mortgage SVR (you cant remortgage a resi IO, you are stuck) is approaching 8% - 16k/y Hmm bit of problem.

And thats ignoring the end of mortgage terms facing IO mortgage holders.

 

 

 

 

[King Penda]

On 27/05/2023 at 19:06, Lightscribe said:

Boomers don’t move or downsize, there lies the rub. They just rattle around in big houses and complain.

They will be forced to once Labour get in through property <insert here> levies/carbon tax/energy tax. 

The top of the tree needs to be shaken because that’s where all the assets lie, and shaken it will be.

Won’t just be 1 million houses in London I’m expecting single people in their own owned homes with 2 or more spare bedrooms to be targeted somehow .but first they need to grasp the nettle of single pensioners rattling round in (family built for council houses ) but these are often part of labours core demographic 

[Wight Flight]

54 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Won’t just be 1 million houses in London I’m expecting single people in their own owned homes with 2 or more spare bedrooms to be targeted somehow .but first they need to grasp the nettle of single pensioners rattling round in (family built for council houses ) but these are often part of labours core demographic 

Easily done.

Make inheritance tax on your home higher than that on cash.

The exact opposite of what currently happens.

Telling that they don't.

[King Penda]

15 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Easily done.

Make inheritance tax on your home higher than that on cash.

The exact opposite of what currently happens.

Telling that they don't.

That’s fine but you can’t use that stick when millions of x single mums (kids grown up)and single pensioners are sat rattling around in 3 bed plus state owned (not private ) houses.often with the rent paid by tax payers.

[Wight Flight]

12 minutes ago, King Penda said:

That’s fine but you can’t use that stick when millions of x single mums (kids grown up)and single pensioners are sat rattling around in 3 bed plus state owned (not private ) houses.often with the rent paid by tax payers.

I would ban the lifetime tenancies.

Re-apply every five years, and get given what you are entitled to.

 

[Bilbo]

1 hour ago, King Penda said:

That’s fine but you can’t use that stick when millions of x single mums (kids grown up)and single pensioners are sat rattling around in 3 bed plus state owned (not private ) houses.often with the rent paid by tax payers.

Not for OAPs but 

Who is affected by the 'bedroom tax'?

The penalty will affect you if:

• you’re classed as having a spare bedroom
• you’re aged between 16 and minimum State Pension Credit age
• you get Housing Benefit (or the housing element of Universal Credit)
• you rent your property from a local authority, housing association or registered social landlord.

The following rules are used when working out whether you have a spare room:

• two children under 16 of the same gender are expected to share
• two children under 10 are expected to share, regardless of their gender
• you’re allowed one bedroom for each person over 16 or couple in a household

[King Penda]

11 minutes ago, Bilbo said:

Not for OAPs but 

Who is affected by the 'bedroom tax'?

The penalty will affect you if:

• you’re classed as having a spare bedroom
• you’re aged between 16 and minimum State Pension Credit age
• you get Housing Benefit (or the housing element of Universal Credit)
• you rent your property from a local authority, housing association or registered social landlord.

The following rules are used when working out whether you have a spare room:

• two children under 16 of the same gender are expected to share
• two children under 10 are expected to share, regardless of their gender
• you’re allowed one bedroom for each person over 16 or couple in a household

It’s peanuts and if your working isn’t applied 

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, Wight Flight said:

I would ban the lifetime tenancies.

Re-apply every five years, and get given what you are entitled to.

 

Correct