Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

If you could fix the mortgage for the full term a la US/ Maes then they would be a no brainer - price pending.

However, by only having relatively short fixed mortgages - 5 used to be seen as a very long fix - the chances of the IR changing between the start and end of  fix is pretty high, esp in times of ZIRP.

Imagine fixing at 1.5% for 5 years then coming off when SVR is 6%+. Massive problem.

 

 

 

agreed and these rates may occur as a function of bank solvency rather than through broader market factors eg monetary policy.

Barclays Dowd Buckner ratio comes in under 2% so leveraged over 50/1................

[HousePriceMania]

 

[MrXxxx]

On 09/09/2021 at 17:41, eek said:

£33k for a software developer in London is stupidly low.

As is £45k I was getting that 13 years ago in Sunderland. 

Software developers in academia...as researchers/lectures salary range would be £42-50k, so that reported would be about right...although they do get a DB pension, well at the moment they do!

[MrXxxx]

On 09/09/2021 at 18:58, HousePriceMania said:

Do they mean Colindale ?  Couldn't find any place in the uk called Collingdale !!!

Anyway, if only they'd waited...

 

£1200 ( down from £1350 ) for a 2 bed

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/109723769#/?channel=RES_LET

 

£1150 for a 2 bed

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/108834584#/?channel=RES_LET

 

£1053 for a 1 bed end of terrace house

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/112872356#/?channel=RES_LET

1050 1 bed flat

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/111370370#/?channel=RES_LET

 

Shoulda haggled

But renting is `wasted` money, has no one ever explained that to you?! :-)

[RJT1979]

I'm getting non stop calls from new build enquiries I made. They are desperate suddenly

[Ghostly]

8 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

I'm getting non stop calls from new build enquiries I made. They are desperate suddenly

Have you put in any comedy offers?

[RJT1979]

No. Those days are long gone. They don't entertain offers of any kind. They sometimes say stamp included when you actually ask. Most stuff is sold 3 months ahead but sometimes odd shit plot doesn't sell as they want same money as a good plot sold for or 2.5k off 500k house difference 

[Hancock]

5 hours ago, Ghostly said:

Have you put in any comedy offers?

The few agents ive emailed over the years have never replied to me when i said i'm a cash buyer and offer 10k or so below asking.

 

[Hancock]

4 hours ago, RJT1979 said:

No. Those days are long gone. They don't entertain offers of any kind. 

Apart from after the 2007/8 crash and around just before they introduced Help to Sell, they've never entertained offers.

But why would they when the Tory party has their back.

[Noallegiance]

Shame...

Chaos for landlords as property sales fall apart (msn.com)

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Shame...

Chaos for landlords as property sales fall apart (msn.com)

I was just about to post something that might be related to that...someone pointed out to me on Friday that if you use rightmove for an area then say there are 100 places up for sale, if you include SSTC, there are 300.

It's like chains are stuck and not moving.

I was given two examples:

 

Northamptonshire: Over 3x more properties (6,552) are sstc than are for sale (2,117).

Yorkshire: 1,561 properties. If I do include sold stc that goes up to 4,438 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

 

Someone in France has scraped Zopa/RM and OnTheMarket data and made a report out of it.

The really interesting chart is this one....

 

 

 

 

Edited September 13, 2021 by HousePriceMania

[Boon]

London appears c.-7% on that, and the others basically flat (South West up a tiny bit).

Actually I am not entirely surprised on that, a lot of these areas were expensive going in to Covid anyway. 

So for the official data to stick the other areas not covered here must be showing some very large increases, a shame they were not covered as well.

[eek]

16 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

Someone in France has scraped Zopa/RM and OnTheMarket data and made a report out of it.

The really interesting chart is this one....

 

 

If I presented that I would expect to be fired.

The left hand scale represents a 100% increase in prices from a base of £250,000 to £500,000.

The right hand scale represents a 10% increase / decrease from a base of £910,000 to £990,000

Were this presented correctly the more truthful graph would show London prices were over twice the rest of the country and have dropped by 10% to be just over twice the price of the South East. 

[CVG]

31 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I was just about to post something that might be related to that...someone pointed out to me on Friday that if you use rightmove for an area then say there are 100 places up for sale, if you include SSTC, there are 300.

It's like chains are stuck and not moving.

I was given two examples:

 

Northamptonshire: Over 3x more properties (6,552) are sstc than are for sale (2,117).

Yorkshire: 1,561 properties. If I do include sold stc that goes up to 4,438 

 

 

I'd tell your friend not to get too excited. My property was still showing on RM as SSTC 7 months after completion. Oddly that was also how long it took to appear in the Land Registry so perhaps RM uses that to drop listings?

[eek]

19 minutes ago, CVG said:

I'd tell your friend not to get too excited. My property was still showing on RM as SSTC 7 months after completion. Oddly that was also how long it took to appear in the Land Registry so perhaps RM uses that to drop listings?

I would imagine RM only removes listing for 2 reasons

1) the agency removes it

2) an external trigger results in it being removed which clearly RM uses the Land Registry data for. 

Given that it sales need to be reported within 2 months, your solicitor wasn't doing a good job there. 

[CVG]

36 minutes ago, eek said:

Given that it sales need to be reported within 2 months, your solicitor wasn't doing a good job there. 

That isn't correct (solicitor doing poor job). You might be forgetting the processing time taken by LR after receiving the submission. There have been some significant delays recently.

[eek]

6 minutes ago, CVG said:

That isn't correct (solicitor doing poor job). You might be forgetting the processing time taken by LR after receiving the submission. There have been some significant delays recently.

isn't that computerised? as it's supposed to be. 

[CVG]

1 minute ago, eek said:

isn't that computerised? as it's supposed to be. 

No. Supposed to be? Do you have a source for that, or are you just assuming it would be?

[eek]

25 minutes ago, CVG said:

No. Supposed to be? Do you have a source for that, or are you just assuming it would be?

If the land registry are manually re-entering / copying data from paper forms they should have stopped doing that 10 + years ago. 

[Chewing Grass]

I'm calling double top dead cat bounce this week.

There is nothing left, stagflation here we come, interest rates at zero, companies trading on government largess, car market leased to death, food inflation, energy inflation, NI hikes coming, Tax Rises, Green Levies.

Anyone needing to get out of the market should have done it in August.

Most people will be skint (cash flow) in Six months time.

[Green Devil]

10 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

I'm calling double top dead cat bounce this week.

There is nothing left, stagflation here we come, interest rates at zero, companies trading on government largess, car market leased to death, food inflation, energy inflation, NI hikes coming, Tax Rises, Green Levies.

Anyone needing to get out of the market should have done it in August.

Most people will be skint (cash flow) in Six months time.

By definition a ponzi keeps pumping until theres no more money. 

When you control the money printer, theres an infinite amount of money! 

So up up up! 

[eek]

13 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

I'm calling double top dead cat bounce this week.

There is nothing left, stagflation here we come, interest rates at zero, companies trading on government largess, car market leased to death, food inflation, energy inflation, NI hikes coming, Tax Rises, Green Levies.

Anyone needing to get out of the market should have done it in August.

Most people will be skint (cash flow) in Six months time.

I saw earlier today the beginning of a campaign to remove affordability checks on fixed term mortgages because there is zero chance of interests rates rising during the period the rate is fixed.

What happens if interest rates are x% when the fixed term finishes is a question I can't be arsed to raise. 

[Chewing Grass]

17 minutes ago, eek said:

I saw earlier today the beginning of a campaign to remove affordability checks on fixed term mortgages because there is zero chance of interests rates rising during the period the rate is fixed.

What happens if interest rates are x% when the fixed term finishes is a question I can't be arsed to raise. 

Also ignores stagflation and market sustainability, affordability checks are there for a reason and artificially fudging the market by ignoring rules and good lending practice is why we are where we are now. Doubling down due to short term pressure is not the answer and more social housing will just be filled with more anti-social gimmigrants.

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, eek said:

I saw earlier today the beginning of a campaign to remove affordability checks on fixed term mortgages because there is zero chance of interests rates rising during the period the rate is fixed.

What happens if interest rates are x% when the fixed term finishes is a question I can't be arsed to raise. 

Campaign by who?

The issue with UK fixes is they are short - 5 years is seen as a v long term.

If UK had something like the Mae's then they'd have a point. But then again, the fixes would be a lot higher -  US 30y fix is 3.22%

The HTB fig fir 5 years face a double hit - higher IRs plus the equity loan IR kick s in.