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Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

haroldshand

By haroldshand
in Property Prices & Economy

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Phil

Phil

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Just checked leicesterhsire 3385 versus 9996.Breath taking.Never seen anything like that before

Is this the start of the pop? I assume( hope) it is. See BP and Shell up today, ( energy) and Evergrande ( systematic debt) down again. 

An now nuke subs that don't carry nuke weapons.... yeah right.

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Ina
Ina

Massive feedback from my colleagues in New Build and Residential Property is that we are on the cusp of a serious turn in the market.  Everyone is extremely twitchy.  Estate Agents are very nervous.  

Democorruptcy
Democorruptcy

When you are looking at a property on RM they have an example mortgage payment with Nationwide at the bottom. I noticed the rate 3.8%, just for fun I clicked through on one to Nationwide and was quote

Ina
Ina

My lovely colleagues in our Residential Conveyancing team are suddenly very twitchy having noticed a recent sea change.  Our FD is more so.   In Probate granny houses with the usual artex, swirly carp

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Phil

Phil

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Why so pessimistic, we have the budget announcement in October to look forward to.

More props? I doubt it. Its the end of the beginning I think. More props for serf like me, who only want  security of abode ( like access to the HELP TO SELL rubbish). I've got to the age/mind think why the hell not. I'll have to wait untill the 21st( fed) to see what our glorious leaders come up with first. I've been drinking again lol

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spygirl

spygirl

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Option5 said:

Given that China has fallen out with Australia, the UK and USA how do we think It will it affect all those Chinese investment hoarders of London flats (Battersea etc)?

Theyll crash even  more...

 

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Hancock

Hancock

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Option5 said:

Given that China has fallen out with Australia, the UK and USA how do we think It will it affect all those Chinese investment hoarders of London flats (Battersea etc)?

Theyll keep on buying to hide their money from their govt. 

No doubt many buying are people connected to the Chinese govt.

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Bobthebuilder

Bobthebuilder

Posted
Posted
On 15/09/2021 at 18:52, Bobthebuilder said:

There is a small, rural, idyllic Dorset village that I have kept an eye on for 20 years. You know the type, thatched with cob walls, millionaires trophy chocolate box holiday home. I could never afford one, even with a 50% crash.

Now, you do not see these up for sale very often. I have noticed over the years that they tend to be sold when something is starting to shout WARNING, I saw this in 2008.

2 houses listed as of today, one reduced the other just added.

I can still dream.

Quoting myself for continuity.

Another one added today, this one is a new listing but marked as reduced, not sure what's going on there.

But good news in my book, seems to be following the pattern I saw in 2008.

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Bilbo

Bilbo

Posted
Posted
On 15/09/2021 at 22:24, sancho panza said:

Just checked leicesterhsire 3385 versus 9996.Breath taking.Never seen anything like that before

Just did that for my local area. 5 versus 63 and two of the 5 are park homes :)

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HousePriceMania

HousePriceMania

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Bilbo said:

Just did that for my local area. 5 versus 63 and two of the 5 are park homes :)

Just had another look in one area, 4 houses for sale 50 listed SSTC

 

WTF

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Loki

Loki

Posted
Posted
On 19/09/2021 at 11:11, Bobthebuilder said:

Quoting myself for continuity.

Another one added today, this one is a new listing but marked as reduced, not sure what's going on there.

But good news in my book, seems to be following the pattern I saw in 2008.

I thought your first post was a great anecdotal, let us know any more developments

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Hancock

Hancock

Posted
Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Jesus wept....the developers will put the prices up to cover it and collect on even more HTB

 

Insane isn't it. I have no idea how people can afford to buy these new builds as it is, they seem to cost 20-30% more than a "used house".

So it seemed the property crash wasn't any different to the other times it was expected to crash; time to accept it only implodes when interest rates rise.

Edited by Hancock
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HousePriceMania

HousePriceMania

Posted
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Insane isn't it. I have no idea how people can afford to buy these new builds as it is, they seem to cost 20-30% more than a "used house".

So it seemed the property crash wasn't any different to the other times it was expected to crash; time to accept it only implodes when interest rates rise.

Or the credit tap turns off.

The BoE are effectively suppressing real world mortgage rates using TermFunding, with the double whamy of forcing down savings rates, meaning people are even more inclined to move into risky assets.

It's a total scam, the establishment literally are enslaving one generation to support another and profit themselves.

I'm looking at the stock market and thinking, I should just put everything into energy stocks now and hell be dammed.  **** buying a house when I can get 6% dividends on many shares and retire, even if the market tanks it wont matter.

 

e.g.

Apply dividend yield: 

0.61%

BP:

4.83%
Edited by HousePriceMania
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Boon

Boon

Posted
Posted (edited)

Affordability of new builds isn't really that much of a problem.

Example in London is that a flat may be £500k, that's pretty much 'affordable' for someone rocking up with a £50k deposit and £50k salary (using HTB, not the normal way) Given the average age of buyer is late 20/early 30, nothing remarkable at all. But one thing that sticks out to me is that the prices of these things have gone nowhere since 2016 and may even be less. Ergo, developers could try to ask for 10% more, but they won't get it.

The last property correction here (after the GTC) was in the absence of HTB, I know as I was caught up in it. Interest rates actually declined sharply after 2008 but there was a vacuum of credit - banks tightened considerably and the easy self-cert loans were no more. Was caught on SVR and couldn't remortgage either as the value of property went down, so LTV was bad.

HTB first raised prices of the new flats, which immediately spread to the older flats (which were good value in comparison and raised their prices), which then spread to the houses along the ladder as people had more money. Fuelling this was the HTB prop but also a slow unwind of lending and interest rates, and as properties increased in value more remortgaging became possible again, which in some cases released even more money.

So credit tightening could also produce a fall in the absence of interest rate rises but seems unlikely under the government who will just up the subsidies.

Or an outright rejection by the public of the HTB properties, sadly that will be unlikely to happen either as there are enough mugs who are willing to pay for shiny new stuff without any regard to the overall price, as the monthly payment is all that matters.

Edited by Boon
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Hancock

Hancock

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

I'm looking at the stock market and thinking, I should just put everything into energy stocks now and hell be dammed.  **** buying a house when I can get 6% dividends on many shares and retire, even if the market tanks it wont matter.

Yes that's where im at, been looking to stick £200k in for a few months, but have bottled it and its now up 10% from its recent dip.

Think we're all guilty of buying into the BK scenario, when its very possible the March 2020 crash was the BK stock market crash ... i should have had the brains to put my house money into the markets then, though i did think shutting the economy would guarantee a HPC.

Edited by Hancock
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HousePriceMania

HousePriceMania

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, CVG said:

So long as they gradually deflate by 50% over the next 5 years I'll be happy.

Not if the central bankers can help it.

I cant believe the US Fed refuse to taper but in reality I can.

Occam's razor,  they wont taper or raise QE because they now can't

This could go on for years

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Frank Hovis

Frank Hovis

Posted
Posted
On 22/09/2021 at 19:50, HousePriceMania said:

Not if the central bankers can help it.

I cant believe the US Fed refuse to taper but in reality I can.

Occam's razor,  they wont taper or raise QE because they now can't

This could go on for years

 

Decades IMO.

There will be a war to bring everything down before an economic correction.

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