Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[janch]

To cheer yourselves up, there are a few areas with falling prices.  Just look up Pimlico in central London  (approx 50% reductions every week) and Maidenhead which has been falling slowly over the past approx 2 years.

Both areas are mad but at least they're falling!

[Wight Flight]

This cheers me up ...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/27/uk-interest-rate-rise-in-2022-becoming-more-likely-says-bank-chief-andrew-bailey

[AlfredTheLittle]

26 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

This cheers me up ...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/27/uk-interest-rate-rise-in-2022-becoming-more-likely-says-bank-chief-andrew-bailey

Imagine the carnage if interest rates treble, they'll be 0.3%

[spygirl]

3 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Imagine the carnage if interest rates treble, they'll be 0.3%

I think theyll go up a lot, relative to the current 0.1%

I'm sort of expecting a rapid rise to 2%.

Slashing rates to zirp dud not create much growth. Equally, I dint expect raising rates to 3% will stop inflation.

Most of ukpop bar some overleveraged individuals are pretty rate insensitive.

What I'm interested is tge spread on mortgages over bie base. I expect a 3%-4% spread is here to stay.

 

 

[spygirl]

3 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

This cheers me up ...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/27/uk-interest-rate-rise-in-2022-becoming-more-likely-says-bank-chief-andrew-bailey

BoE along with other CBs have been caught pretty much with pants down.

 

[Hancock]

3 hours ago, spygirl said:

BoE along with other CBs have been caught pretty much with pants down.

 

BoE is about the be caught with its pants down, whilst having a wank in the women's public toilets. Metaphorically speaking that is.

Its now time to pay the piper, for them and the LIBLABCON dishing out other peoples money to home owners, and thinking 12th century technology was going to keep us all warm during winter.

[HousePriceMania]

On 09/10/2021 at 16:36, Wight Flight said:

This cheers me up ...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/27/uk-interest-rate-rise-in-2022-becoming-more-likely-says-bank-chief-andrew-bailey

Inflation 5%, house price inflation 15%....why not raise now and send out a message.

 

He's a fat lying ****, that's why.

[HousePriceMania]

On 10/10/2021 at 00:51, Hancock said:

BoE is about the be caught with its pants down, whilst having a wank in the women's public toilets. Metaphorically speaking that is.

Its now time to pay the piper, for them and the LIBLABCON dishing out other peoples money to home owners, and thinking 12th century technology was going to keep us all warm during winter.

Their policies of inflation is deliberate, it's the British people who will be caught with their pants down.

They'll all be well prepared for what is coming.

On 09/10/2021 at 20:29, spygirl said:

I think theyll go up a lot, relative to the current 0.1%

I'm sort of expecting a rapid rise to 2%.

Slashing rates to zirp dud not create much growth. Equally, I dint expect raising rates to 3% will stop inflation.

Most of ukpop bar some overleveraged individuals are pretty rate insensitive.

What I'm interested is tge spread on mortgages over bie base. I expect a 3%-4% spread is here to stay.

 

 

I would stop house price inflation, better it would reverse it by a large magnitude, that's why they wont do it.

[spygirl]

24 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Their policies of inflation is deliberate, it's the British people who will be caught with their pants down.

They'll all be well prepared for what is coming.

I would stop house price inflation, better it would reverse it by a large magnitude, that's why they wont do it.

BoE dont target HPI, as they repeatedly keep telling us.

 

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

BoE dont target HPI, as they repeatedly keep telling us.

 

Read their official documents, it's exactly what they are targeting.

[Frank Hovis]

27 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Read their official documents, it's exactly what they are targeting.

 

There was a very informed bloke talking about the property crisis in Cornwall on the local radio a month or so back.

He had it nailed, saying precisely what is said here about both Cornwall and other nice coastal areas (second homes, AirBnB etc.).

Though where he differed, and this was revealing, was when it came to letting property prices fall.

He said that as far as the government was concerned the property sector and rising house prices was such a fundamental part of the UK economy that they would act to prevent falls and do not see cheap houses, as a result of falling prices, as being a possible solution to the housing crisis because of the economic damage that that would cause.

Which leaves the only hope for a crash being that their hand is forced on raising interest rates in order to prevent a run on sterling; which they will have to avoid and in doing so sacrifice the housing market as being the lesser economic evil.

[goldbug9999]

1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

Which leaves the only hope for a crash being that their hand is forced on raising interest rates in order to prevent a run on sterling;

... which isnt going to happen so long as all the big CBs collude to continue the debasement - there cant be a "run" if theres nowhere to run to (exept you-know-what obviously )

[HousePriceMania]

15 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

... which isnt going to happen so long as all the big CBs collude to continue the debasement - there cant be a "run" if theres nowhere to run to (exept you-know-what obviously )

Only glimmer of light is...several central banks have started raising their IRs...there are plenty of places to run to now.

[Frank Hovis]

20 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

... which isnt going to happen so long as all the big CBs collude to continue the debasement - there cant be a "run" if theres nowhere to run to (exept you-know-what obviously )

 

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Only glimmer of light is...several central banks have started raising their IRs...there are plenty of places to run to now.

 

Beat me to it.

Whilst there appears to be a secret concordiat at play amongst central banks the Covid debts have seriously weakened the already weak position of most developed economies' currencies and now inflation, which the central banks have craved for so long, is piling up in an uncontrolled fashion.

Add in that several countries, Norway, Russia, are sitting pretty with huge energy reserves which they can sell to the highest bidder so keeping their currencies strong and the field is ripe for a loser to emerge.

My likeliest candidate would be the break up of the Euro with Greece being first to fall out and the drachma then plummeting.

[HousePriceMania]

21 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

 

Beat me to it.

Whilst there appears to be a secret concordiat at play amongst central banks the Covid debts have seriously weakened the already weak position of most developed economies' currencies and now inflation, which the central banks have craved for so long, is piling up in an uncontrolled fashion.

Add in that several countries, Norway, Russia, are sitting pretty with huge energy reserves which they can sell to the highest bidder so keeping their currencies strong and the field is ripe for a loser to emerge.

My likeliest candidate would be the break up of the Euro with Greece being first to fall out and the drachma then plummeting.

Im not one for conspiracy theories but all the central banks in the bankster cartel are the one's with a connection to the UK and it's Monarchy, with the exception of the U.S., but they do have a strong WASP connection.

It's all very odd.

 

 

[spunko]

Asset prices have just gone ballistic though. I have been following house prices rises for years, and I can't remember a time before when I've browsed Rightmove and let off so many audible gasps at the pricing. And not only are the asking prices completely mental and not borne in reality, they are actually going SSTC.

I just had a quick look at used car prices for a model I seriously considered buying in 2019. The prices have gone up by about 20%.  All prices have gone mental. How on earth can anyone look at these price hikes and not realise it's going to come crashing down with a bang? Genuine question - what's the reasoning there, just looking at the price rises scares me!

Is anyone on here brave enough to admit they think these prices are going to stay, or even keep on going up? I'd love to hear the reasoning, it's just so baffling to me!

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, spunko said:

Asset prices have just gone ballistic though. I have been following house prices rises for years, and I can't remember a time before when I've browsed Rightmove and let off so many audible gasps at the pricing. And not only are the asking prices completely mental and not borne in reality, they are actually going SSTC.

I just had a quick look at used car prices for a model I seriously considered buying in 2019. The prices have gone up by about 20%.  All prices have gone mental. How on earth can anyone look at these price hikes and not realise it's going to come crashing down with a bang? Genuine question - what's the reasoning there, just looking at the price rises scares me!

Is anyone on here brave enough to admit they think these prices are going to stay, or even keep on going up? I'd love to hear the reasoning, it's just so baffling to me!

Idle hands and all that I reckon. People bidding for houses and cars online is my guess, I also note that they market some properties as a kind of auction, even though the places are mortgageable and offers welcome before the bidding date, so not really an auction at all. The estate agents are trying to make it into some sort of Ebay thing, disgusting behavior I think.

I am the same when I do my searches, I often say f##k off out load, when I see the listing and price.

Are we anywhere near the current top? I have no idea, but that place you listed on the other thread at £1 million+, would be around £600k in my search area, still plenty of room for some areas to continue up I think.

Madness, its gone so far now, I don't even know why I keep looking.

[Frank Hovis]

11 minutes ago, spunko said:

Asset prices have just gone ballistic though. I have been following house prices rises for years, and I can't remember a time before when I've browsed Rightmove and let off so many audible gasps at the pricing. And not only are the asking prices completely mental and not borne in reality, they are actually going SSTC.

I just had a quick look at used car prices for a model I seriously considered buying in 2019. The prices have gone up by about 20%.  All prices have gone mental. How on earth can anyone look at these price hikes and not realise it's going to come crashing down with a bang? Genuine question - what's the reasoning there, just looking at the price rises scares me!

Is anyone on here brave enough to admit they think these prices are going to stay, or even keep on going up? I'd love to hear the reasoning, it's just so baffling to me!

 

Inflation is roaring away generally and when people see this they bring forward consumption so adding to the inflation as demand exceeds supply.

I would say that one or more interest rate rises are sewn on for next year but there's only one asset that they are really going to adversely affect: house prices.

With regard to cars it looks like people who have been just about managing are becoming so squeezed that they are hanging on to their cars rather than their previous pattern of upgrade every five years or so and this has choked off supply in the middle years cars: six to ten years old.

The typical age of cars I see coming up on my local cheap car seller group is now fourteen to twenty years; rarely anything more recent.

The end result of this is going to be a rise in the number of people without cars but as changing cars becomes less frequent and dealers are monopolising most of the younger stock I don't see why the prices of used cars would come down.

Then factor in Euro 7 regs from 2026, making new cars a lot more expensive and dragging up used values in their wake, followed by the looming glacier of an ICE ban in 2030 and it looks like it is going to become worse.

The time to buy a used car is the next few years; they won't become cheaper, they may well go up more, but come 2026 they will shoot up. 

Or just buy a Dacia Sandero for £8k and keep it running forever.

[afly]

33 minutes ago, spunko said:

Asset prices have just gone ballistic though. I have been following house prices rises for years, and I can't remember a time before when I've browsed Rightmove and let off so many audible gasps at the pricing. And not only are the asking prices completely mental and not borne in reality, they are actually going SSTC.

I just had a quick look at used car prices for a model I seriously considered buying in 2019. The prices have gone up by about 20%.  All prices have gone mental. How on earth can anyone look at these price hikes and not realise it's going to come crashing down with a bang? Genuine question - what's the reasoning there, just looking at the price rises scares me!

Is anyone on here brave enough to admit they think these prices are going to stay, or even keep on going up? I'd love to hear the reasoning, it's just so baffling to me!

Imagine a scenario where governments seek to inflate away their ridiculously large debts.

They would need rampant goods and wage inflation whilst holding rates to the floor. Now imagine what that would mean for house prices 

[Noallegiance]

 

[Bobthebuilder]

21 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

 

Ah Frizzers. I remember him posting on HPC back in the day. Gotta say, I have been enjoying his monologues recently.

Depressing watch, telling young folk to get out the system and into crypto, is that the only answer?

[sancho panza]

Obviously,media cheerleaders will talk about rising prices but ther eality is that liquidity is drying up big time.In normal times,probably 70-75% of registrations would be done by the three month mark.Even if they double June's(unlikely given lockdown ended in July) then they're 505 down on last year.

It really needs noting that 0-zero- falt sales have been registered and as many terraces have sold as detached.

Simply incredible price/sales data.

 

context

[Bobthebuilder]

@sancho panza That's quite something. At this rate we could have an exponential upward price graph with zero sales. Its a miracle I tell Thee, a miracle.

[Noallegiance]

36 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

@sancho panza That's quite something. At this rate we could have an exponential upward price graph with zero sales. Its a miracle I tell Thee, a miracle.

Reminds me of the Irish joke where Paddy's on the aircraft as, one by one, the engines fail. The landing time gets later and later until only one of the four engines is operational.

"Jesus, Mary and Joseph! If the fourth engine goes we'll be up here all day!"

[mh9000]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

 

What site is this taken from please? I'm sure you or someone has mentioned it before and I found it but now lost it again!