Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[HousePriceMania]

6 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Dont forget a "high wage" according to bozo is £8.91 instead of the £8.71 it is currently 

Only for poor people.  

[Boon]

28 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

All that is right if you live in a nominal world of wages and savings.

If you live in the world of real numebrs, foreign currencies etc, house prices are near the bottom and about to go through the roof in real terms.

Aren't most people forced to live in a nominal world though? You buy a house with wages and savings, after all.

Is the bottom you are talking about only the bottom if history started after 2000? I seem to recall a time where a house could be bought for 3-4 x a single salary.

If you genuinely believe it how have you positioned yourself to take advantage of it?

Personally I believe the goal for the government is to give a nominal increase in HPI but real decreases - a soft landing aided by props. 

Inflation is called the silent thief, and the goal is to anally penetrate without the recipient realising it, or even better, liking it.

Cue a £500k house being worth £530k in 2025, or even £600k in 2030. The average thicko on the street will actually think their house is worth more and there has been no price crash; but over the decade compounded inflation would have robbed maybe 50% of purchase power.

Nominal gains but real losses is basically the optical illusion governments can use to pretend all is good.

[HousePriceMania]

30 minutes ago, Boon said:

Aren't most people forced to live in a nominal world though?

Most, yes. I expect their promise to push up wages will come to fruition...by robbing savers

[Noallegiance]

Personal anecdotal:

I've had a Rightmove alert set up for at least 3 years for any family homes I'd be interested in within 10 miles of my home town. 

Usually one or two alerts per week with 1-4 properties.

The last 10 days I've had 9s, 12s and 15s sent through.

Not much change in price levels yet, but definite volume uptick in used and new homes coming on.

[HousePriceMania]

18 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Personal anecdotal:

I've had a Rightmove alert set up for at least 3 years for any family homes I'd be interested in within 10 miles of my home town. 

Usually one or two alerts per week with 1-4 properties.

The last 10 days I've had 9s, 12s and 15s sent through.

Not much change in price levels yet, but definite volume uptick in used and new homes coming on.

PropertyLion seen the number of listings roughly hold it's level last month for the first time in a year and there are a lot of sales falling through now from what I see.

I've seen 3 places local to me, relist so PropertyLog shows no history. 1 definitely had a £100K price cut.

Seeing a steady stream of what look like repos now too.

I'm so convinced something is going to give I am going to run the PL index mid month.

 

Edited October 6, 2021 by HousePriceMania

[HousePriceMania]

UP UP UP, to infinity....

 

https://www.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/sep-2021-halifax-house-price-index.pdf

 

Average house price rises sharply as stamp duty holiday draws to a close

£267,587 Average price +1.7% Monthly change +1.5% Quarterly change +7.4%

[Ghostly]

43 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

UP UP UP, to infinity....

 

https://www.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/sep-2021-halifax-house-price-index.pdf

 

Average house price rises sharply as stamp duty holiday draws to a close

£267,587 Average price +1.7% Monthly change +1.5% Quarterly change +7.4%

We’re all rich (unless you’re a scummy renter like me).

[RJT1979]

17 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Personal anecdotal:

I've had a Rightmove alert set up for at least 3 years for any family homes I'd be interested in within 10 miles of my home town. 

Usually one or two alerts per week with 1-4 properties.

The last 10 days I've had 9s, 12s and 15s sent through.

Not much change in price levels yet, but definite volume uptick in used and new homes coming on.

Where in the country?

[HousePriceMania]

45 minutes ago, Ghostly said:

We’re all rich (unless you’re a scummy renter like me).

How to take the wind out of everyone's sails.

 

 

He makes a great point...there are not the buyers with money for everyone to collect on their average priced home.

Best sell out while you can.

[Noallegiance]

19 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Where in the country?

SE

[VeryMeanReversion]

On 06/10/2021 at 09:05, HousePriceMania said:

I dont recall ever having said that. 

I have said BTL shouldn't exist and social housing should be provided by the government for British people who can't afford shelter.

 

Lovely graph.   I bought my first house in 1997 after moving back from the US when I saw it was a great time to buy, sold in 2003 then bought again 2010.  Timing wasn't perfect but pretty close.

The next generation is utterly stuffed without a correction back to traditional levels of real house prices.

 

[Frank Hovis]

1 hour ago, VeryMeanReversion said:

Lovely graph.   I bought my first house in 1997 after moving back from the US when I saw it was a great time to buy, sold in 2003 then bought again 2010.  Timing wasn't perfect but pretty close.

The next generation is utterly stuffed without a correction back to traditional levels of real house prices.

 

They will simply become the consuming slaves the globalists want them to be.

They will rent small flats in town centres near their minimum wage jobs and get to work either on foot, by public transport or on an ebike or scooter.

They won't own a car let alone a house.

Their income will be taxed as will their expenditure and they will be unable to retire until they reach whatever distant age state pension kicks in at in the future.

There will be no hope of aspiration and their only diversions will be TV reality shows, buying tat, sport and the lottery.

It is the life that George Orwell foresaw in 1984: Winston Smith, living in a small cold, damp and draughty flat in Victory Mansions and doing and thinking what he is told to do and think.

Edited October 7, 2021 by Frank Hovis
Towers -> Mansions

[Chewing Grass]

^^^ and backed up by the WEF and their Davos buddies.

[Hancock]

44 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

They will simply become the consuming slaves the globalists want them to be.

They will rent small flats in town centres near their minimum wage jobs and get to work either on foot, by public transport or on an ebike or scooter.

They won't own a car let alone a house.

Their income will be taxed as will their expenditure and they will be unable to retire until they reach whatever distant age state pension kicks in at in the future.

There will be no hope of aspiration and their only diversions will be TV reality shows, buying tat, sport and the lottery.

It is the life that George Orwell foresaw in 1984: Winston Smith, living in a small cold, damp and draughty flat in Victory Towers and doing and thinking what he is told to do and think.

This is how its been for many working renters of the last 2 decades, though heating the house was a bit more affordable.

Edited October 7, 2021 by Hancock

[Animal Spirits]

9 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

They will simply become the consuming slaves the globalists want them to be.

They will rent small flats in town centres near their minimum wage jobs and get to work either on foot, by public transport or on an ebike or scooter.

They won't own a car let alone a house.

Their income will be taxed as will their expenditure and they will be unable to retire until they reach whatever distant age state pension kicks in at in the future.

There will be no hope of aspiration and their only diversions will be TV reality shows, buying tat, sport and the lottery.

It is the life that George Orwell foresaw in 1984: Winston Smith, living in a small cold, damp and draughty flat in Victory Mansions and doing and thinking what he is told to do and think.

Do We Live in a Brave New World? 16 mins.

[Frank Hovis]

31 minutes ago, Animal Spirits said:

Do We Live in a Brave New World? 16 mins.

 

Here, way back, he identfiies over-population as being the biggest force for control and loss of freedom.

 

[HousePriceMania]

Anecdote for you, my wife and I are keeping a close eye on inflation/Interest rates and plan to buy a house in the new year if IRs stay down and there's no clear path to them being raised.  I personally dont think they'll raise them and inflation will run a muck.

To that end we've started looking at houses again.  Did the first viewing yesterday, a repo.  The agent tells us to expect a wave of repos in the coming months !!!

I've not seem many repos listed in 10 years but you can see from the pictures on rightmove, there are a lot of them coming.

 

[Bobthebuilder]

Got fed up with my searches this week.

There's some 3 bed, ex council houses in a small village in my search area. One went up recently at £325k, crazy price I thought, it SSTC then "unexpectably re available", SSTC again at £325k. It's in good order, nice windows, doors, kitchen etc.

Another one came up this week, looks like a probate, needs complete refurbishment, £350k ?????? I could just give up at the moment.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Got fed up with my searches this week.

There's some 3 bed, ex council houses in a small village in my search area. One went up recently at £325k, crazy price I thought, it SSTC then "unexpectably re available", SSTC again at £325k. It's in good order, nice windows, doors, kitchen etc.

Another one came up this week, looks like a probate, needs complete refurbishment, £350k ?????? I could just give up at the moment.

The agents are pricing them to get them on their books, dont blame them if some future bankrupt pays the asking price.

 

[Stuey]

Two have appeared in my catchment area in the last three days. One is 25% higher than the other despite being in a slightly worse location 

[King Penda]

On 07/10/2021 at 12:13, Frank Hovis said:

They will simply become the consuming slaves the globalists want them to be.

They will rent small flats in town centres near their minimum wage jobs and get to work either on foot, by public transport or on an ebike or scooter.

They won't own a car let alone a house.

Their income will be taxed as will their expenditure and they will be unable to retire until they reach whatever distant age state pension kicks in at in the future.

There will be no hope of aspiration and their only diversions will be TV reality shows, buying tat, sport and the lottery.

It is the life that George Orwell foresaw in 1984: Winston Smith, living in a small cold, damp and draughty flat in Victory Mansions and doing and thinking what he is told to do and think.

True,so if that was your future would you work 50 hours a week at minimum wage to improve it or do the bare minimum and claim universal credits to top your money up ?

[CVG]

We have reached peak HPI.

HPM, you wanna make sure that your data doesn't get too skewed by these cases.

[Hancock]

8 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Got fed up with my searches this week.

There's some 3 bed, ex council houses in a small village in my search area. One went up recently at £325k, crazy price I thought, it SSTC then "unexpectably re available", SSTC again at £325k. It's in good order, nice windows, doors, kitchen etc.

Another one came up this week, looks like a probate, needs complete refurbishment, £350k ?????? I could just give up at the moment.

If its a do'er upper they're always worth more than fully refurbished houses, as you can put your own stamp on it.

Obvious if you think about it.

 

[Green Devil]

9 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Anecdote for you, my wife and I are keeping a close eye on inflation/Interest rates and plan to buy a house in the new year if IRs stay down and there's no clear path to them being raised.  I personally dont think they'll raise them and inflation will run a muck.

To that end we've started looking at houses again.  Did the first viewing yesterday, a repo.  The agent tells us to expect a wave of repos in the coming months !!!

I've not seem many repos listed in 10 years but you can see from the pictures on rightmove, there are a lot of them coming.

 

Youre dreaming. The Gov and the banks will do everything to ensure there is never any repos. 

[eek]

8 hours ago, Green Devil said:

Youre dreaming. The Gov and the banks will do everything to ensure there is never any repos. 

Nope, repos are fine provided the- mass media doesn’t discover millions of them. A few repos on the edge of the market keeps everyone else in order.