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Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

haroldshand

By haroldshand
in Property Prices & Economy

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Noallegiance

Noallegiance

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Could we  be at the ideal time to buy a house ?

Image

I know my investments are well above that red line since 2007 so we are able to enter the next leg up for house prices ?

Maybe that's how the British establishment/banksters are seeing this.

 

 

Personally, when compared to the parabolic move from 95 to 2004, I like the fact that all the stops have been pulled out since 2008 but it's pretty much gone sideways.

Once the game stops...

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Ina
Ina

Massive feedback from my colleagues in New Build and Residential Property is that we are on the cusp of a serious turn in the market.  Everyone is extremely twitchy.  Estate Agents are very nervous.  

Democorruptcy
Democorruptcy

When you are looking at a property on RM they have an example mortgage payment with Nationwide at the bottom. I noticed the rate 3.8%, just for fun I clicked through on one to Nationwide and was quote

Ina
Ina

My lovely colleagues in our Residential Conveyancing team are suddenly very twitchy having noticed a recent sea change.  Our FD is more so.   In Probate granny houses with the usual artex, swirly carp

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HousePriceMania

HousePriceMania

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Personally, when compared to the parabolic move from 95 to 2004, I like the fact that all the stops have been pulled out since 2008 but it's pretty much gone sideways.

Once the game stops...

I've come to the conclusion the game will never stop.

It's budget day today, lets see where we are by tea-time.

 

 

 

 

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Boon

Boon

Posted
Posted

Seems that if it is a good thing in the budget it is leaked.... so maybe there could be bad stuff which is attempted to be buried beneath it.

The dream should be that unrealised HPI gains should be gone after in some way, perhaps using the climate as a disguise; ie council tax to vary not just by property value but EPC as well

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HousePriceMania

HousePriceMania

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Boon said:

Seems that if it is a good thing in the budget it is leaked.... so maybe there could be bad stuff which is attempted to be buried beneath it.

The dream should be that unrealised HPI gains should be gone after in some way, perhaps using the climate as a disguise; ie council tax to vary not just by property value but EPC as well

You think the property owning tories will tax property :/

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Wight Flight

Wight Flight

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Boon said:

The dream should be that unrealised HPI gains should be gone after in some way, perhaps using the climate as a disguise; ie council tax to vary not just by property value but EPC as well

Mmm.

The worst EPC properties will be rentals, as there is no financial incentive for a LL to make the bills lower.

Your plan may need a rethink.

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Boon

Boon

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Mmm.

The worst EPC properties will be rentals, as there is no financial incentive for a LL to make the bills lower.

Your plan may need a rethink.

That would be quite easy, some kind of different taxation schedule for the treatment of landlord profits/capital gains, depending on the EPC.

Don't get me wrong, unlikely to happen but the climate stick is a great flexible tool. 

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Bilbo

Bilbo

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

Mmm.

The worst EPC properties will be rentals, as there is no financial incentive for a LL to make the bills lower.

Your plan may need a rethink.

Currently E minimum but....

Currently, the minimum energy efficiency standards (MEES) allowed for rented properties are a minimum of an E rating on their Energy Performance Certificate (EPC). The new EPC regulations would mean that from 2025, your rented property would need to have a certification rating of C or above.5 Nov 2020

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Boon

Boon

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

image.png.f62cb3ea21de8a996fe15fe72a958e74.png 

Still shit though isn't it when you consider the rise due to the stamp duty holiday and general FOMO.

I even don't think it was the budget that dunnit. There wasn't much in it for bulls or bears.

It seems likely that the cost of living this time next year could be quite a lot more. Talking to someone whose energy deal ended, they were paying £70 a month, the new fix was £150. Of course the advice is not to take the fix, but the way it's looking, their bills may be £150 anyway if the cap rises again.

Added council tax, food price increases and estimated 0.4% increase in interest rates and the average person may be £200-300 worse off a month. On an average salary the rise needed to keep pace with that is 10%, seems unlikely.

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HousePriceMania

HousePriceMania

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Boon said:

Still shit though isn't it when you consider the rise due to the stamp duty holiday and general FOMO.

I even don't think it was the budget that dunnit. There wasn't much in it for bulls or bears.

It seems likely that the cost of living this time next year could be quite a lot more. Talking to someone whose energy deal ended, they were paying £70 a month, the new fix was £150. Of course the advice is not to take the fix, but the way it's looking, their bills may be £150 anyway if the cap rises again.

Added council tax, food price increases and estimated 0.4% increase in interest rates and the average person may be £200-300 worse off a month. On an average salary the rise needed to keep pace with that is 10%, seems unlikely.

With prices at extremes and mortgage rates at all time lows...there's no where to go for the idiots who have stretched themselves to the limit !!!

I dont need the housing market to crash....I only need one person's house price to crash·

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Don Coglione

Don Coglione

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10136613/OBR-warns-wage-spiral-force-rates-3-5-CENT.html

Cheerful headline: "Is your mortgage payment about to soar by a third? OBR warns interest rates could soar to 3.5 per cent as inflation may head to a three-decade high of 5.4 PER CENT next year - adding £300 a month to a £150,000 25-year mortgage"

£150k mortgage? Fucking amateurs!

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Boon

Boon

Posted
Posted

As Shaun Richards puts it, 'the first rule of OBR club'....

Getting the inflation is the easy part, that kind of interest rate rise is not going to follow.

In fact given how they get it wrong I suspect that many of the figures used today are basically softballs delivered by the OBR designed so Sunak can sound good, only to be quietly revised back a few months later.

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spygirl

spygirl

Posted
Posted
On 27/10/2021 at 19:49, HousePriceMania said:

That headline ought to stop the housing bubble dead in it's track

Well ... yes, how shit newspaper personal finance reporters are.

Its not how high base rates go, it's the spread between svr n base rates too.

Svr spreads are over 3%.

Chuck in 3% boe base and you can see why MMR stress tests at 6%

 

 

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With a crooked smile

With a crooked smile

Posted
Posted
On 01/09/2021 at 21:42, HousePriceMania said:

TheCon doesn't post on here or on TOS now, he's retired to France for good now., you've even had it confirmed here on several occasions where he posted from.

I developed UK Property Lion with/for him before he left and I use TheCON on HPC to promote the UKPropertyLion index, hence the posts.  I enjoyed posting there so much to wind up dickheads like you that I continue to do so. 

I personally know TCON very well having worked with him in Northamptonshire, the place where we both lived :/,  for years and he even lodged with me when he was in the UK last time working for a few months.

You clearly are a shite stalker if you have missed all that.

I am also @HousePriceMania ( one of several people to have run it ) and @UKPropertyLion on twitter.  I helped PropertyLog get off the ground a bit and have 1 other account on TOS which I no longer post on.

No lies, no deceit, no great secret, nothing that's not been posted before here and on TOS, if you'd sent me a PM i'd have been happy to explain it but for some reason you think you can discredit someone and call them a liar, on an anonymous internet forum :Jumping: when no one cares and no one is listening. 

So you and the count are two seperate people but he's lived in the same house as you? 😂😂🙄 And he's stopped posting on TOS? 😂😂😂

 

I'm calling utter bullshit myself. 

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dnb24

dnb24

Posted
Posted

Maybe it is different this time @HousePriceMania @spygirl-

this place

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/111496385#/?channel=RES_BUY

was up for sale in the summer at £625k. Very close to Leamington spa, probably 1/2 acre of land, house in need of work-but liveable- at the time it was inundated with viewings - we went- decided way too expensive and needing too much work. Sold within a week. Yesterday Back on market with a 20% reduction. This should cause significant waves in the local market- because 1/2 mile down the road you have semis for 500k, and next door is for sale at 400k. 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/105280064#/?channel=RES_BUY

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spygirl

spygirl

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

Maybe it is different this time @HousePriceMania @spygirl-

this place

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/111496385#/?channel=RES_BUY

was up for sale in the summer at £625k. Very close to Leamington spa, probably 1/2 acre of land, house in need of work-but liveable- at the time it was inundated with viewings - we went- decided way too expensive and needing too much work. Sold within a week. Yesterday Back on market with a 20% reduction. This should cause significant waves in the local market- because 1/2 mile down the road you have semis for 500k, and next door is for sale at 400k. 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/105280064#/?channel=RES_BUY

Was it 'sold' or sold?

More likely the byers did not get finance.

Again, on the TOS I jeep telling people banks are not lending, or not lending much.

Youve got to be really uber prime to get a cheap mortgage.

I can see my region going back to where it was 2004-2020 - v few stuff selling.

In fat itll probably get much worse as SD holida has cleared a lot of stock, brought forward a lot of sales. Just in time for rates to start rising and benefits to start being cut.

 

 

 

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dnb24

dnb24

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Was it 'sold' or sold?

More likely the byers did not get finance.

Again, on the TOS I jeep telling people banks are not lending, or not lending much.

Youve got to be really uber prime to get a cheap mortgage.

I can see my region going back to where it was 2004-2020 - v few stuff selling.

In fat itll probably get much worse as SD holida has cleared a lot of stock, brought forward a lot of sales. Just in time for rates to start rising and benefits to start being cut.

 

 

 

It was a “sold”- not a solid sale and agree- I can imagine the mortgage company said no way to the amount they would be lending.

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