Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

How can it happen when their mandate is to keep inflation at 2% ... its the fact they even predicted inflation to be higher and go on for longer.

I do wish that Argentinian woman would fuck off back to where she came, along with the Belgium cunt, bad enough being financially raped by indigenous English let alone inviting foreigners in to do so.

If someone can explain what is going on, I am happy to listen 

 

[HousePriceMania]

This is from an honest EA.

 

"sellers reluctant to list their homes because there’s nothing for them to buy!" so they keep pushing up the prices of the people will try and sell thus making it worse.

Markets collapsed and he's not even realised.

 

[dnb24]

16 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

This is from an honest EA.

 

"sellers reluctant to list their homes because there’s nothing for them to buy!" so they keep pushing up the prices of the people will try and sell thus making it worse.

Markets collapsed and he's not even realised.

 

Maybe ask if he’s salaried or working on commission

[Phil]

33 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

This is from an honest EA.

 

"sellers reluctant to list their homes because there’s nothing for them to buy!" so they keep pushing up the prices of the people will try and sell thus making it worse.

Markets collapsed and he's not even realised.

 

Nania. Own a house outright and you ain’t in a wardrobe looking for the lion. I have given up on owning. It’s all Harry Potter world with the wizards in the BoE the puppet masters.

 

[HousePriceMania]

12 hours ago, dnb24 said:

Maybe ask if he’s salaried or working on commission

I didn't have the energy to go through and show him what a **** he is.  He's that concerned about his children his pushing up house prices for commission.  I was surprised he thought that there was no chance prices can collapse, not even in real terms.  Bizarre. It's unavoidable now and it's going to be a real term collapse now.

 

[Boon]

Most people don't even think in 'real' terms - after all the main headlines are all in nominal terms.

So if someone sees their house go up by just 1% a year for the next 5 years they just aren't going to believe that house prices are falling, because in the literal sense they haven't.

That's why inflation is called the silent thief.

TBH I think you just need to look at the regular joe forums; once you get the change of sentiment there then stuff will happen. There is no real signs of large scale distress there yet, and why should it? Interest rate rises don't hit the market straightaway, and neither has the large-scale increase of energy costs.

Maybe next year it will be different. At least, I hope so.

[HousePriceMania]

Halifax bank admitted today that they are running a ponzi scam

 

[spygirl]

Foreign ownership of homes in England and Wales triples

Residents from tax havens and Asia lead influx of buyers over past decade

https://www.ft.com/content/e36cec28-7acd-4154-b57d-923b5d1610da

Levy a 5% tax on the valuation of the property.

Close to 250,000 residential properties in England and Wales are registered to individuals based overseas, amounting to roughly 1 per cent of total housing stock, up from less than 88,000 homes in 2010, according to CFPD, which used freedom of information requests to HM Land Registry to collate the analysis.

Geese to be plucked, painfully.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Foreign ownership of homes in England and Wales triples

Residents from tax havens and Asia lead influx of buyers over past decade

https://www.ft.com/content/e36cec28-7acd-4154-b57d-923b5d1610da

Levy a 5% tax on the valuation of the property.

Close to 250,000 residential properties in England and Wales are registered to individuals based overseas, amounting to roughly 1 per cent of total housing stock, up from less than 88,000 homes in 2010, according to CFPD, which used freedom of information requests to HM Land Registry to collate the analysis.

Geese to be plucked, painfully.

Buy now before a foreign pays more....

[sancho panza]

Looking grim in terms of volume,jsut 12 posted for July so far).Even if we get an uplift as late registrations arrive(normally 70% registered in first three months post transaction but maybe lower now),Still,12 transactions for July looks quite bleak for EA's given there's probably 20 in that postcode.Maybe more.

[sancho panza]

On 05/11/2021 at 10:36, Boon said:

Most people don't even think in 'real' terms - after all the main headlines are all in nominal terms.

So if someone sees their house go up by just 1% a year for the next 5 years they just aren't going to believe that house prices are falling, because in the literal sense they haven't.

That's why inflation is called the silent thief.

TBH I think you just need to look at the regular joe forums; once you get the change of sentiment there then stuff will happen. There is no real signs of large scale distress there yet, and why should it? Interest rate rises don't hit the market straightaway, and neither has the large-scale increase of energy costs.

Maybe next year it will be different. At least, I hope so.

Also,gives a signifcant trading advantage for those who see the change of wind coming early .

I think we're at the edge now.I'll have a look at some other psotcodes tongith but this looks grim in Leicester.

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Also,gives a signifcant trading advantage for those who see the change of wind coming early .

I think we're at the edge now.I'll have a look at some other psotcodes tongith but this looks grim in Leicester.

The edge of what though 

[steppensheep]

I'm seeing very few for sale signs. It's about 30 years since I was actively property hunting, but I remember there would be several on every street. Seem to be walking miles just to spot one at the moment.

 

Rightmove search for semis in Sunderland under 200k.  102. Include under offer. 387. Don't think I've seen ratios like that before. Ok, I did cherry pick the range. All properties in Sunderland: 574. Including under offer: 1499. Still pretty incredible

[With a crooked smile]

Mortgage repayments are currently equivalent to 39pc of the median salary. This is below the historical average of 43pc

People can squawk on twitter and make up little graphs as much as they like but until the above changes house prices are only going one way. 

Interest rates aren't going up significantly anytime soon. 

[spygirl]

On 05/11/2021 at 09:36, Boon said:

Most people don't even think in 'real' terms - after all the main headlines are all in nominal terms.

So if someone sees their house go up by just 1% a year for the next 5 years they just aren't going to believe that house prices are falling, because in the literal sense they haven't.

That's why inflation is called the silent thief.

TBH I think you just need to look at the regular joe forums; once you get the change of sentiment there then stuff will happen. There is no real signs of large scale distress there yet, and why should it? Interest rate rises don't hit the market straightaway, and neither has the large-scale increase of energy costs.

Maybe next year it will be different. At least, I hope so.

Most people dont think in terms of opportunity costs/IR cost.

Been thru this with a fe people saying - Ive made xx with my house ...

When we sat down and worked out the cost - just IR - that 'My house has doubled' became only a few 10k up - and thats in nominal terms only.

Buying a house is not to be knocked. Its an asset and it provides somewhere to live.

However, a house cannot make ££££ - its just a wage hedge.

If you do get houses pricing rising more than wages - as weve seen in the last 20 years in the South - then all you get is plunging ownership/new buyers as more n more people are priced out.

This can only last for a decade or so, as youll eventually start getting probates overwhelming the market.

 

 

 

[Wight Flight]

Can't believe I am posting this but Richard Power Sayed is doing a very good job of beating up Cristo the landlord on talk radio.

[steppensheep]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

 pricing rising more than wages - as weve seen in the last 20 years in the South - then all you get is plunging ownership/new buyers as more n more people are priced out.

 This can only last a decade or so, as youll eventuall start getting probates overwhelming the market.

You mean another decade?  It's been at least 25 years and counting in London.

Edited November 13, 2021 by steppensheep

[spygirl]

18 minutes ago, steppensheep said:

You mean another decade?  It's been at least 25 years and counting in London.

No, I think the south  is there now.

Look at how people have walked way from London, post covid, WFH.

The number of articles along the liens of - London is back! Come back.

 

Articles like this are getting more desperate -

Call to return to The City: Lord Mayor of London says financial district 'is coming back to life' as he urges more workers to return to their desks - as it is revealed just 20% of UK office space is being used

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10194433/Lord-Mayor-London-urges-workers-return-desks.html

 

[spygirl]

On 04/11/2021 at 20:08, HousePriceMania said:

This is from an honest EA.

 

"sellers reluctant to list their homes because there’s nothing for them to buy!" so they keep pushing up the prices of the people will try and sell thus making it worse.

Markets collapsed and he's not even realised.

 

I think all of us with children are concerned about the next generations ability to get a foot on the property ladder.

Ah, yes. UK economy is just housing ....

At some point soon, the UK will face having to get way a ahead o the Fed in raising rates, just to stop the pound collapsing.

Or face being slow and having the pound collapse that way.

If the pound collapses then the mainstay of the economy - business/trade - will collapse.

Seriously, does  that cretin Ea thing that a country with large amounts of debt and large current deficit has much choice when it comes to raising rates to stop pound collapsing, shift loads of UKGOV debt, maintain the £ as a non basket case currency.

 

 

[Boon]

This turning point in London has been long though, prior to Covid 2015/2016 was the peak price which for flats anyway is still above todays prices.

Londoners ain't Conservatives by and large, so I don't see them caring too much. In fact migration out of London benefits the rest of the countries prices.

So to me the case for London is obvious declines, and maybe really very big ones measured in real terms. Question is do we get to that point quickly or slowly?

If you want quick, IMO you're gonna need intervention from other forces. Such as multiple interest rate rises. For instance if next year it goes up to 1.5% (not sure how likely this is, just a demonstration) that may induce some panic, because then people will fear even more. SVRs could then be 5%+ causing the trap of some facing hefty increases in mortgage bills, and also not being able to remortgage as the price has fallen and thus can't get LTV. The classic forced seller.

Nothing doing at the moment. You would think next few months is coming up to prime time to sell a house (so you can get completion somewhere in the school holidays), but inventory is still low. The ladder has properly broken in London - lots of people in flats have no equity gains. Some flats are just not sellable anyway. Those with starter houses would have seen the proper family homes appreciate at a far greater rate, thus also unaffordable.

Given that environment there is no real point in going on the market at all if there is nothing to move to. 

Like I thought before, it is useless us discussing it - look at the regular peoples forums and that provides the notice. 

[spygirl]

7 hours ago, Boon said:

This turning point in London has been long though, prior to Covid 2015/2016 was the peak price which for flats anyway is still above todays prices.

Londoners ain't Conservatives by and large, so I don't see them caring too much. In fact migration out of London benefits the rest of the countries prices.

So to me the case for London is obvious declines, and maybe really very big ones measured in real terms. Question is do we get to that point quickly or slowly?

If you want quick, IMO you're gonna need intervention from other forces. Such as multiple interest rate rises. For instance if next year it goes up to 1.5% (not sure how likely this is, just a demonstration) that may induce some panic, because then people will fear even more. SVRs could then be 5%+ causing the trap of some facing hefty increases in mortgage bills, and also not being able to remortgage as the price has fallen and thus can't get LTV. The classic forced seller.

Nothing doing at the moment. You would think next few months is coming up to prime time to sell a house (so you can get completion somewhere in the school holidays), but inventory is still low. The ladder has properly broken in London - lots of people in flats have no equity gains. Some flats are just not sellable anyway. Those with starter houses would have seen the proper family homes appreciate at a far greater rate, thus also unaffordable.

Given that environment there is no real point in going on the market at all if there is nothing to move to. 

Like I thought before, it is useless us discussing it - look at the regular peoples forums and that provides the notice. 

According to numbers and people - I have no interest in London, inner or greater - London has been falling for 5-6 years.

Covid seems to have been the last in along line negatives, starting with 2008, done some thing very nasty to London real estate. It's possible London could rapidly go back to where it was, HPE n jobwise, it was pre 1985 n all that.

[Hancock]

@HousePriceMania

Bailey is a corrupt cunt, do a google search and you'll see what he was up to when at the FCA.

Anyway -

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-10198781/Bank-England-considering-easing-mortgage-rules.html

I truly hate this breed of sub-human traitorous scum.

[mh9000]

On 12/11/2021 at 13:04, sancho panza said:

Looking grim in terms of volume,jsut 12 posted for July so far).Even if we get an uplift as late registrations arrive(normally 70% registered in first three months post transaction but maybe lower now),Still,12 transactions for July looks quite bleak for EA's given there's probably 20 in that postcode.Maybe more.

 

On the topic of late registrations, I just checked HM land registry as I wanted to see actual sold prices in the areas I'm interested in. At least half of the places (more like 75%+) I've saved earlier this year that were been sold back in April still not showing, 7 months later. I thought normally they'd be on there by now if it's gone through. 

Edited November 14, 2021 by mh9000

[Axeman123]

10 hours ago, Hancock said:

@HousePriceMania

Bailey is a corrupt cunt, do a google search and you'll see what he was up to when at the FCA.

Anyway -

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-10198781/Bank-England-considering-easing-mortgage-rules.html

I truly hate this breed of sub-human traitorous scum.

Look at it another way: Pishy won't get the firehose of taxpayer funds out to damp down the smouldering correction, so the squid have had to resort to Bailey with his regulatory bucket. This may also just be jaw-boning, intended to boost sentiment. You could even see this as TPTB acknowledging all the transactions in limbo where down-valuation has pushed the LTV or lending multiple too far.

[mh9000]

11 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Look at it another way: Pishy won't get the firehose of taxpayer funds out to damp down the smouldering correction, so the squid have had to resort to Bailey with his regulatory bucket. This may also just be jaw-boning, intended to boost sentiment. You could even see this as TPTB acknowledging all the transactions in limbo where down-valuation has pushed the LTV or lending multiple too far.

Last part does seem to tie in with what I've seen and with what EAs have told me when asking why places have been re-listed.