Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[RJT1979]

Muslim area

[Bobthebuilder]

52 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Muslim area

Stamford Hill? Jewish area.

[spygirl]

55 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Muslim area

 

2 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Stamford Hill? Jewish area.

Warzone ....

[Bobthebuilder]

3 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Someone I know sold their house in SW London outskirts for £1.8 million, completed in July. They had lived in it for three years or so. Paid £1.4 million for it.

 

I looked at my old road in Hackney yesterday. 8 years ago I was amazed at places selling for £1 million, now there is one listed at £2.6 million.......to live in Dalston?

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Hardhat said:

Sort of between Stoke Newington and Finsbury park

One of the Turkish areas?

[Castlevania]

11 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I looked at my old road in Hackney yesterday. 8 years ago I was amazed at places selling for £1 million, now there is one listed at £2.6 million.......to live in Dalston?

I lived in Hackney when I moved to London as a bright eyed bushy tailed young graduate some 15 or so years ago. It was a dump back then. It was cheap and given the housing stock (the houses are generally big - much better than what you find in the East End) and proximity to the City and Canary Wharf it was in hindsight good value. The houses overlooking Victoria Park were selling for £650k. Seems crazy cheap now. They’d gone up from less than £250k five years earlier circa 2001. Now it feels crazy over valued. 

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I lived in Hackney when I moved to London as a bright eyed bushy tailed young graduate some 15 or so years ago. It was a dump back then. It was cheap and given the housing stock (the houses are generally big - much better than what you find in the East End) and proximity to the City and Canary Wharf it was in hindsight good value. The houses overlooking Victoria Park were selling for £650k. Seems crazy cheap now. They’d gone up from less than £250k five years earlier circa 2001. Now it feels crazy over valued. 

We walked the same streets at the same time. I lived there between 1999 until 2013.

[Hardhat]

17 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

One of the Turkish areas?

Yeah fairly Turkish round there. I've always gotten on well with the turks.

 

I lived in Hackney for ten years, renting, always managed to find fairly cheap places. The last time it was realistic to buy with wages was about 2011. 

[Bobthebuilder]

@Hardhat @Castlevania I presume you are both familiar with Mangal 1 on Arcola Street off Kingsland Road? Best Turkish food I have ever had. Used to go every week.

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

@Hardhat @Castlevania I presume you are both familiar with Mangal 1 on Arcola Street off Kingsland Road? Best Turkish food I have ever had. Used to go every week.

Afraid I didn’t. I was a poor graduate. I did go to Meze Mangal on Lewisham Way a few times when I lived down in South East London.

[Hardhat]

4 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

@Hardhat @Castlevania I presume you are both familiar with Mangal 1 on Arcola Street off Kingsland Road? Best Turkish food I have ever had. Used to go every week.

Yep, great place. Also Testi on Stoke Newington high street and Umut 2000 on the junction by Shaklewell Lane.

[HousePriceMania]

This'll never get old

 

 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

This'll never get old

 

 

He is awful, truly a dreadful human, i do wonder if Sajid Javid or what ever his tongue twister name is, would have been any more competent. Kind of an irrelevant thought as whats happened has happened!

[Boon]

Anyone predict any towns that might get hit hard in a crash?

Previously thought South East commuter towns would suffer as people could afford London again but the working from home thing may be a support.

[Frank Hovis]

26 minutes ago, Boon said:

Anyone predict any towns that might get hit hard in a crash?

Previously thought South East commuter towns would suffer as people could afford London again but the working from home thing may be a support.

 

As the corollary to the thread on coastal villages in nice parts of the country: those.

Their prices have been massively pumped because of their potential for holiday lets / AirBnB at £2k - £4k a week.

When people can no longer pay such stupid prices for a week in a small damp cottage then they will be dumped back onto the market.

[HousePriceMania]

Sometimes I am lost for words

 

https://www.savills.co.uk/research_articles/229130/318451-0#Yield

 

Who did Pishi Sunak used to work for....

[Wight Flight]

15 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

As the corollary to the thread on coastal villages in nice parts of the country: those.

Their prices have been massively pumped because of their potential for holiday lets / AirBnB at £2k - £4k a week.

When people can no longer pay such stupid prices for a week in a small damp cottage then they will be dumped back onto the market.

Nice bit of early morning hopium 

[Fully Detached]

Well now Boris has openly stated that his goal is a "high wage economy" surely that means that the crash will be real terms rather than nominal? Seems to me we're looking more and more like the 1970s by the minute.

Mind you, there's got to be a good chance that whatever Boris does, he will fuck it up - the only question is in which way? My bet is it won't be too little pumping.

[sleepwello'nights]

15 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Sometimes I am lost for words

 

https://www.savills.co.uk/research_articles/229130/318451-0#Yield

 

.

As I recall you often said you preferred instituional residential property owners to private landlords. 

[HousePriceMania]

14 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

As I recall you often said you preferred instituional residential property owners to private landlords. 

I dont recall ever having said that. 

I have said BTL shouldn't exist and social housing should be provided by the government for British people who can't afford shelter.

Now we have Goldman sachs buying up property with an ex-GS man runnning the BBC,  an ex-GS as chancellor and an ex-GS man just added to the the BoE's MPC. Lloyds are doing it and John Lewis headed by an ex-banker is doing it.  All entering the market when prices are at extremes relative to wages.

If anyone thinks they are going to raise IRs they are not watching.

My guess is...

 

 

For them we are at the bottom of a crash and are going to profit from the actual re-inflation.

Edited October 6, 2021 by HousePriceMania

[HousePriceMania]

We'll be in the insitutional investors phase now

 

[HousePriceMania]

30 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

Well now Boris has openly stated that his goal is a "high wage economy inflation"

 

[Boon]

22 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

We'll be in the insitutional investors phase now

 

Aren't we way past the institutional phase?

The first GFC was caused in part by mainly institutions buying the incorrectly priced derivatives that the banks sold off.

That was the first sell off, c.2009-2011. Since then in some places properties have fucking zoomed. In London the bulk of the gains were not in the 2000s, but the decade after. Ergo a £250k place (not new build shit) in 2010 may be at £700k now, but only at £125k in 2000. 

We (or rather I) have seen greed, enthusiasm, and even delusion in some of the asking prices. Cue people camping out overnight to get a HTB place. Doesn't happen now, in fact because of the prices even HTB is a tough shift.

Prices have fallen in London since the peak of 2016 but the dip was reversed in part by stamp duty holidays. But now? It seems possible to me that stagflation, rising bills, reduction of credit could easily lead to fear - question is whether a government prop can reverse it if it comes.

Edited October 6, 2021 by Boon

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, Boon said:

Aren't we way past the institutional phase?

The first GFC was caused in part by mainly institutions buying the incorrectly priced derivatives that the banks sold off.

That was the first sell off, c.2009-2011. Since then in some places properties have fucking zoomed. In London the bulk of the gains were not in the 2000s, but the decade after. Ergo a £250k place (not new build shit) in 2010 may be at £700k now, but only at £125k in 2000. 

We (or rather I) have seen greed, enthusiasm, and even delusion in some of the asking prices. Cue people camping out overnight to get a HTB place. Doesn't happen now, in fact because of the prices even HTB is a tough shift.

Prices have fallen in London since the peak of 2016 but the dip was reversed in part by stamp duty holidays. But now? It seems possible to me that stagflation, rising bills, reduction of credit could easily lead to fear - question is whether a government prop can reverse it if it comes.

All that is right if you live in a nominal world of wages and savings.

If you live in the world of real numebrs, foreign currencies etc, house prices are near the bottom and about to go through the roof in real terms.

[Green Devil]

1 hour ago, Fully Detached said:

Well now Boris has openly stated that his goal is a "high wage economy" surely that means that the crash will be real terms rather than nominal? Seems to me we're looking more and more like the 1970s by the minute.

Mind you, there's got to be a good chance that whatever Boris does, he will fuck it up - the only question is in which way? My bet is it won't be too little pumping.

Dont forget a "high wage" according to bozo is £8.91 instead of the £8.71 it is currently