Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[SillyBilly]

5 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Texi driver say he work texis until can sort out second house to rint out for income.

Please be my shoeshine moment.

I had that one about two years ago. Still left the fucker a tip mind.

Edited September 28, 2021 by SillyBilly

[Bobthebuilder]

@HousePriceMania Thought I would continue the conversation here.

Rural Dorset, my search area +5-mile radius.

For sale =83.

For sale including SSTC =352.

I had a look at the land registry page that @spygirl posted the other day, and it appears that on average 4 properties are completing per month.

That's one hell of a backlog.

Cannot see that as estate agents leaving sold listings on RM. Tied up in chains, I expect.

Edited September 29, 2021 by Bobthebuilder

[HousePriceMania]

12 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

@HousePriceMania Thought I would continue the conversation here.

Rural Dorset, my search area +5-mile radius.

For sale =83.

For sale including SSTC =352.

I had a look at the land registry page that @spygirl posted the other day, and it appears that on average 4 properties are completing per month.

That's one hell of a backlog.

Cannot see that as estate agents leaving sold listings on RM. Tied up in chains, I expect.

It's the same all over no matter what area you look in.

4 per month means 1 chain !!!

That would give 7 years of sales to go through. 

Everyone's sat waiting on a London buyer I reckon and the London buyer is sat waiting for the greatest fool to come along, not realizing they already have.

Interesting times for sure.

I can confirm too that there is nothing to buy around me but listings have ticked up considerably last week and this, mostly new builds being frantically listed....

 

Meanwhile, at the bottom of the pyramid, a 30K flat not selling at £115K all year depsite the boom and the SDC.

Something is clearly not all the MSM are cracking it up to be.

Luckily lloyds will pay them £150K for that flat from the QE money

Edited September 29, 2021 by HousePriceMania

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I can confirm too that there is nothing to buy around me but listings have ticked up considerably last week and this, mostly new builds being frantically listed....

Exactly the same thing here, too.

[Bobthebuilder]

33 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Everyone's sat waiting on a London buyer I reckon and the London buyer is sat waiting for the greatest fool to come along, not realizing they already have.

In a way, that is me. I own a house in London, and I am wistfully looking at cottages in rural Dorset. At a guess, I would say the asking prices for houses in my London area are around 20% down over the last 2 years.

I would also guess prices in Dorset are up 30% ish. The chocolate box thatched trophy cottages in the small villages are around the same price as 2 years ago (£600K-£900K), it's more the market town and ex council 3 beds that have rocketed (£350K-£500K). I saw a four bed new build listed at £850K.

My guess is long chains from the London crowd, huge demand for holiday lets airbnb etc. And locals that just cannot afford the thatched villages.

Edited September 29, 2021 by Bobthebuilder

[Herby]

25 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

@HousePriceMania

Cannot see that as estate agents leaving sold listings on RM. Tied up in chains, I expect.

We could only hope that of estate agents😆

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

@HousePriceMania Thought I would continue the conversation here.

Rural Dorset, my search area +5-mile radius.

For sale =83.

For sale including SSTC =352.

I had a look at the land registry page that @spygirl posted the other day, and it appears that on average 4 properties are completing per month.

That's one hell of a backlog.

Cannot see that as estate agents leaving sold listings on RM. Tied up in chains, I expect.

20 months inventroy right there.Although I suspect rural Dorset will have less panic sellers than the Smoke.

Whilst I get this whole EA's levae stuff on for ages,I think there are a few chains struggling to complete by the looks of things.

Here's some maths,let me know what you think

352-83 =269.

At 4 transactions a month.Say we allow for EAs leaving SSTC up for 1 year that's 4 x 12 =48

So 269-48 means at least 221 stuck in chains at 4 transactions per month= 55 months of inventory trying to get to completion.

is it me or are these invetnroy figures off the charts?

[belfastchild]

Posted similar to this over on the covid forum.

Mate SSTC back in late June/early July. Still nothing further, solicitor, estate agent all waiting on outside stuff. Hoping to get it sorted by Halloween!
Estate agent said they had run out of signs as everything getting delayed by months and months and houses still have signs outside them. Said the 6-8 week completion was a dream consigned to the past. Everything involving government taking months.
All of that was with only bidders who had already proof of income and proof of mortgage offer being allowed to bid.

[Bobthebuilder]

21 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

is it me or are these invetnroy figures off the charts?

I have just done the same search on my London pad +1-mile radius.

For sale =100.

For sale Inc SSTC =362.

Land registry completions =21 in August.

I also checked my land registry figures for Dorset and I made an error, it's more like 7 completions per month, not 4. Sorry my mistake.

Edited September 29, 2021 by Bobthebuilder

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Posted similar to this over on the covid forum.

Mate SSTC back in late June/early July. Still nothing further, solicitor, estate agent all waiting on outside stuff. Hoping to get it sorted by Halloween!
Estate agent said they had run out of signs as everything getting delayed by months and months and houses still have signs outside them. Said the 6-8 week completion was a dream consigned to the past. Everything involving government taking months.
All of that was with only bidders who had already proof of income and proof of mortgage offer being allowed to bid.

Most of the SSTC I see on RM have been like that for 6 months ish.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Herby said:

We could only hope that of estate agents😆

Something else that could be telling....

 

https://propertyindustryeye.com/rightmove-defends-steep-listing-fee-price-increases/

 

"Rightmove defends steep listing-fee price increases"

 

Less listings, less income.  i thought to short these bastards some time ago, i might still.

 

 

5 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have just done the same search on my London pad +1-mile radius.

For sale =362.

For sale Inc SSTC =100.

Land registry completions =21 in August.

I also checked my land registry figures for Dorset and I made an error, it's more like 7 completions per month, not 4. Sorry my mistake.

That fits in with Property Lion....Number of listings collapse 50% around the country....except in London, they went up.

It's a false market and one being driven by a very small demographic

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Most of the SSTC I see on RM have been like that for 6 months ish.

Matches the SSTC signs

9 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Posted similar to this over on the covid forum.

Mate SSTC back in late June/early July. Still nothing further, solicitor, estate agent all waiting on outside stuff. Hoping to get it sorted by Halloween!
Estate agent said they had run out of signs as everything getting delayed by months and months and houses still have signs outside them. Said the 6-8 week completion was a dream consigned to the past. Everything involving government taking months.
All of that was with only bidders who had already proof of income and proof of mortgage offer being allowed to bid.

TIme to de-bid

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Something else that could be telling....

 

https://propertyindustryeye.com/rightmove-defends-steep-listing-fee-price-increases/

 

"Rightmove defends steep listing-fee price increases"

 

Less listings, less income.  i thought to short these bastards some time ago, i might still.

 

 

That fits in with Property Lion....Number of listings collapse 50% around the country....except in London, they went up.

It's a false market and one being driven by a very small demographic

I made a mistake and edited the post. I had sold and SSTC figures mixed up the wrong way around. Now corrected.

[Option5]

From today's Norwegian newspaper. (Google translated)

A bit long but worth a read.

When does the housing bubble burst?

The banks are pouring in credit. The Norwegian housing market is virtually unregulated. And every fifth Norwegian is outside. When does this house of cards collapse?

Simply put, Norway is a nation with a rich state and a population that is in private debt. But also a population where large groups are excluded from the housing market because they simply can not afford to participate in the money race. More on that later.

In Norway, we have had a sharp rise in house prices over the past 30 years. In Norway as a whole (and in Stavanger), housing has increased by almost 10 per cent in price in the last 12 months. In Oslo, they have increased by more than 15 percent. In parallel with the rise in house prices, debt in Norwegian households has increased considerably, both due to large mortgages - and due to strong growth in expensive consumer loans.

Between 2003 and 2019, house prices in Norway rose by 163 percent. Over twice as much as wage growth in the same period. In Oslo, they rose more than three times as much as wage growth.

Today, Norwegian households have a debt of around NOK 3,700 billion. Or a third Oil Fund. Put another way: We have a debt of 232 percent of our disposable income.

These alarming figures are, of course, the reason why one of the first things the government did when the corona pandemic last year created fears of a brutal economic downturn was to ease the requirements so that banks could defer payment of interest and installments. The crisis was averted. Not only that, but prices continued to rise even during the pandemic. The state is obviously aware that the housing market is on its feet, but is there a will to really do anything about it?

A home is no longer a home. For many, it is an asset that can be used as security for a consumption one in the world could never have managed to finance via the pay slip.

As the housing rate is often high in Norway, the bank will thus consider it as if you have a large fortune, even if you actually have a large debt. Many people lend to the pipe, or "max out" in the belief that the value of the home will only continue to increase. And that's obviously fine with the bank.

In practice, this means that you can have a huge mortgage, and can also continue to increase the debt burden through consumer loans - even though you may have too low an income to actually be able to service the loans, especially with a slightly higher interest rate than today. This makes Norway a nation of financial gamblers.

In Denmark and Sweden, on the other hand, access to consumer loans is governed by income. Compared with our neighboring countries, there are thus far more people in Norway with low incomes who have unsecured credit through consumer loans. Can this go well?

When interest rates rise ...

What would Trygve Bratteli say to this? While Norway in many other areas is a society where the state regulates strictly, our housing market is among the most liberalized in the western world. Most things are allowed here, as long as the bank is willing to open the money bag. The question is how sustainable this is.

The debt gallop presupposes that homes will continue to rise in value. And that interest rates should remain low. The youngest bank customers can hardly remember anything other than low interest rates, but history shows that it will fluctuate. Norges Bank recently raised its lending rate for the first time since May 2020, to a paltry 0.25 per cent. But in 2008, during the financial crisis, it was almost 6 percent . It's only 13 years ago. New crises will affect the economy, most likely due to conditions that Norway cannot influence.

About 20 percent of us do not own our own home . These have too low an income, not enough equity or lack parents who can guarantee loans. Instead, they are referred to a rental market that has also been completely unleashed. There are no homes with regulated rent, except for those who are in a total economic crisis.

To get these last 20 percent into the housing market, policies are needed. It is necessary that conditions are set for developers and housing intermediaries. In the rental market, stricter price regulation may also be needed.

Real estate is thus highly valued by the banks, which pour out credit with security in real estate. But it is valued low by the public sector. As a tax object, real estate is so favorable that rich Norwegians are loaded with real estate. You save tax on that. Why is it like that? Why is this property no longer taxed? Especially for those who own far more than they need to have a place to sleep?

Again, Norway is a different country. The tax system helps to lock in huge amounts of capital in real estate, capital that certainly could have been better used elsewhere. Is there a political will to do something about this? Or must the house of cards first collapse?

[spygirl]

4 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

@HousePriceMania Thought I would continue the conversation here.

Rural Dorset, my search area +5-mile radius.

For sale =83.

For sale including SSTC =352.

I had a look at the land registry page that @spygirl posted the other day, and it appears that on average 4 properties are completing per month.

That's one hell of a backlog.

Cannot see that as estate agents leaving sold listings on RM. Tied up in chains, I expect.

Yeah.

The house price boom is everywhere but the transaction figures.

Near me, most listed houses fail to sell.

They get listed, maybe go under offer, then sort of fizzle out.

The number of transaction has been in its arse since 2008.

Nominal prices have barely shifted since 2004.

 

 

 

Edited September 29, 2021 by spygirl

[Hancock]

I bid on this house last year via an online auction, it went for just over 200k ... if memory serves it was for £205,000 plus fees, of about 6k, so i stopped. (£199,000 is incorrect, unless the auction winner didn't purchase it)

They've clearly spent a bit doing it up and extending it (£20-30k at a guess), but some mug has paid £310,000 for it.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=73643556&sale=12531013&country=england

Good location, but from June 2020 the price of such places such have imploded. Sunak is an utter cunt

Edited September 30, 2021 by Hancock

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Sunak OWNER OF 10 HOUSES, WORKING FOR A PARTY FUNDED BY BANKERS AND PROPERTY DEVELOPERS, WHO'S COLLEAGUES ARE UP TO THEIR NECKS IN PROPERTY is an utter cunt CRIMINAL

 

FTFY

[HousePriceMania]

If you want a laugh, got to this listing and toggle between the two garden pictures.

 

 

 

if someone can explain why the fook an EA would go to that  effort then leave the original picture listed then please explain it to me.  Maybe they're just thick as shit in the neck of a bottle.

[reformed nice guy]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

I bid on this house last year via an online auction, it went for just over 200k ... if memory serves it was for £205,000 plus fees, of about 6k, so i stopped. (£199,000 is incorrect, unless the auction winner didn't purchase it)

They've clearly spent a bit doing it up and extending it (£20-30k at a guess), but some mug has paid £310,000 for it.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=73643556&sale=12531013&country=england

Good location, but from June 2020 the price of such places such have imploded. Sunak is an utter cunt

Painting everything grey always adds 20% to a property dont you know! There must be fake grass, some decking round the back, maybe a firepit, a "live, love, loath" or similar slogan painted on a feature wall now and candles everywhere to make up the rest

[Boon]

58 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

If you want a laugh, got to this listing and toggle between the two garden pictures.

 

 

They seem to have removed the other garden pic now.

Photoshop isn't that uncommon though, a lot of listings can have a blue sky shopped in and we probably don't know the difference.

[HousePriceMania]

35 minutes ago, Boon said:

They seem to have removed the other garden pic now.

Photoshop isn't that uncommon though, a lot of listings can have a blue sky shopped in and we probably don't know the difference.

That's interesting and even more misleading !!!

HousePriceMania is blocked by the agents

 

So I wonder if one of the agents is following me.

 

Just checked, they have removed it.  f**king desperados

Edited September 30, 2021 by HousePriceMania

[sancho panza]

22 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Something else that could be telling....

 

https://propertyindustryeye.com/rightmove-defends-steep-listing-fee-price-increases/

 

"Rightmove defends steep listing-fee price increases"

 

Less listings, less income.  i thought to short these bastards some time ago, i might still.

Havent' been on there in ages.Comments are funny with all the EA's spitting chips.

In other news,worrying times for families raising kids in rented.

https://propertyindustryeye.com/sharp-rise-in-eviction-instructions-from-letting-agents-and-landlords/

There has been a significant increase in the number of eviction instructions from letting agents and landlords, according to Landlord Action.

The eviction and housing law specialist reports that it saw a 43% increase in the number of eviction instructions between 1 June 2021, when the eviction ban ended, and 1 September 2021, versus the same period in 2019, before the pandemic.

The company has also seen a 17% rise in enquiries to their landlord advice line during this time, receiving nearly 2,000 calls in just three months.

With the period of notice landlords must serve to tenants brought back to pre-pandemic timescales from 1 October (two months for Section 21 and two weeks for Section 8), Landlord Action anticipates a continued surge in enquiries, but warns review hearings at county courts are still causing long delays to the eviction process.

According to Landlord Action, the majority of their enquiries – around 90% – are from landlords and agents wanting clarification on the latest legislation, looking to evict tenants for non-payment of rent or expressing a desire to sell up and exit the buy-to-let market.

Paul Shamplina, founder of Landlord Action, said: “Many landlords who speak to us express their concerns over non-payment of rent and the continual changing of the process which is now costing them more than they bargained for.

“The change back to pre-pandemic notice periods cannot come soon enough but we are having to warn landlords about delays in gaining possession due to the requirement for review hearings and a backlog of case.”

Review hearings were introduced last year to help courts prioritise the most urgent eviction cases and determine which should proceed to a substantive hearing at a later date. Despite the additional administration, it was anticipated that in some cases a settlement might be reached at review hearing stage, which would prevent the case having to go to court. However, Landlord Action says of approximately 400 review hearings, they are only aware of one case that has received a possession order straight after a review hearing.

Shamplina also reports that the changing legislation, which before 1 October 2021, required landlords to provide proof of significant rent arrears in order to avoid a lengthy wait to serve notice, means there has been a shift in the type of notice landlords serve.

He says that since June, 65% of notices served have been Section 8 – the vast majority relating to rent arrears – and 35 per cent have been Section 21.

Shamplina added: “Historically, a Section 21 notice was the quickest way to gain possession. Even though, in many cases, landlords forfeited their right to recoup lost rent (as this can only be achieved by using a Section 8 notice), most landlords accepted this was the quickest way to get their property back. Now we are seeing delays across the board, there is negativity by many landlords as to their future plans in the private rented sector.”

5 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

That's interesting and even more misleading !!!

HousePriceMania is blocked by the agents

 

So I wonder if one of the agents is following me.

They haven't got much else to do.

[Hancock]

39 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Painting everything grey always adds 20% to a property dont you know! There must be fake grass, some decking round the back, maybe a firepit, a "live, love, loath" or similar slogan painted on a feature wall now and candles everywhere to make up the rest

Yes it looks like an appalling job, kind of thing some woman with no taste has paid a load of EE builders to do.

Still means one family far more in debt than what they'd otherwise have been.

[Hancock]

Just watched Liam Halligan on GB News have a long debate with a multitude of guests about the housing market.

Was like watching a load of people on here rip apart the housing market and the ponzi scams that prop it up.

A Rose Grayston from the New Economics foundation was fantastic .... she was asked why less houses are being built, and quite simply said because they're too expensive and its down to govt gimmicks like HTB, govt backed mortgages etc etc...

Not sure if it can be viewed online but worth a watch even though it tells you what you already know.

https://www.gbnews.uk/

https://www.gbnews.uk/news/liam-halligan-why-does-the-uk-have-a-chronic-housing-shortage/134485

https://t.co/kvZpHu5pa8?amp=1

 

Edited September 30, 2021 by Hancock

[Boon]

One of the funny things is Rightmove basically have been squeezing the agents every year for more fees, and will continue to do it while they are pretty much the main portal.

Their business is akin to a cash machine for investors, no real ambition to chase market share in other countries (either organically or buying someone), just return cash.

There is nothing very special about Rightmove, and also little in the way of switching cost. If the EA's were a bit more organised they could fund their own platform, stop using Rightmove and make the new platform the more popular one.

But the dog-eat-dog attitude of them means that nobody would be willing to forgo short-term profit loss for a long-term benefit.