Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Axeman123]

The market sell-off seems not to be working (to force fed capitulation on taper)...do "they" double down on the selling or give up?

[DurhamBorn]

The job i was offered last week,here is the reason,

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/02/teesside-covid-jab-factory-gets-400m-boost/

In the end i told them i only worked for the tax allowance now and then leave as no point working for more in the UK due to tax and NI.I also told them that due to the Inheritance tax freeze and the Pension lifetime allowance i couldnt even save into my pension from the wages so my free time was worth far more than the after tax wage.

Funny enough i got a call from another Pharma in Fawdon today wanting technicians and last week for one back at GSK.

Just the start of the massive amount of jobs coming here to the north east.

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The job i was offered last week,here is the reason,

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/02/teesside-covid-jab-factory-gets-400m-boost/

In the end i told them i only worked for the tax allowance now and then leave as no point working for more in the UK due to tax and NI.I also told them that due to the Inheritance tax freeze and the Pension lifetime allowance i couldnt even save into my pension from the wages so my free time was worth far more than the after tax wage.

Funny enough i got a call from another Pharma in Fawdon today wanting technicians and last week for one back at GSK.

Just the start of the massive amount of jobs coming here to the north east.

them bleddy macams, they turk arr jabs, an ar wimmin!

[Chewing Grass]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The job i was offered last week,here is the reason,

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/02/teesside-covid-jab-factory-gets-400m-boost/

In the end i told them i only worked for the tax allowance now and then leave as no point working for more in the UK due to tax and NI.I also told them that due to the Inheritance tax freeze and the Pension lifetime allowance i couldnt even save into my pension from the wages so my free time was worth far more than the after tax wage.

Funny enough i got a call from another Pharma in Fawdon today wanting technicians and last week for one back at GSK.

Just the start of the massive amount of jobs coming here to the north east.

Massive job at a 'secret factory' in Preston breaking out with more work than workers, they have a salary cap in 'the contract' so can't recruit skilled people and are losing the younger ones they have and all the older ones desperately want to retire so they are not 'worked to death' by bullshit.

[ThoughtCriminal]

28 minutes ago, Boon said:

No, but pretty sure there are similar examples on this in every area.

Average income in Oxford must be more than average, although its academic as you couldn't borrow on that.

More pertinently, assuming it costs £100k to do up then it may rent for £1k a month and two people on an ordinary income could afford it, and Homes under the Hammer regulars will tell you that's a 4% yield and better than the bank account. 

The thought of earning the same through a dividend (and also have the prospect of capital appreciation) isn't gonna appeal to these people.

That is why there are buyers for these sort of things, at those sort of prices.

All that hassle for 4% yield.

 

It was too much bullshit for me at 10% 

[Bobthebuilder]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The job i was offered last week,here is the reason,

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/02/teesside-covid-jab-factory-gets-400m-boost/

In the end i told them i only worked for the tax allowance now and then leave as no point working for more in the UK due to tax and NI.I also told them that due to the Inheritance tax freeze and the Pension lifetime allowance i couldnt even save into my pension from the wages so my free time was worth far more than the after tax wage.

Funny enough i got a call from another Pharma in Fawdon today wanting technicians and last week for one back at GSK.

Just the start of the massive amount of jobs coming here to the north east.

I went to Trillians in Newcastle upon Tyne one Sunday evening in the early 1990s. It was pretty quiet except for a group of lads having a right old celebration, I wandered over and asked whose birthday it was. They pointed one of the lads out, who had just got a job in the new Nissan factory.

Now me being a southern soft shandy drinker didn't even realize jobs meant that much to the working class of the North East, but he was proper made up, been in a bit of financial difficulty, mortgage etc.

So, I bought him a pint and, as a bonus, the barmaid took me home at the end of the night.

Result.

[leonardratso]

barman

[sancho panza]

On 29/11/2021 at 16:58, JMD said:

Jim Chanos, legendary short seller who made fortune shorting Enron. Worth listening to all 50mins (it's a two parter with 2nd part subscription only)... This part discusses mechanics of short selling, but is also instructive and entertaining - showing how dire the regulators are, Chanos says that most company accounting fraud is more 'Ponzi scheme' than outright stealing, he comments on Uber and that Tesla is a 30dollar stock if priced similar to its competitors!!                                                                                                                                https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=onXHpmOzZZk

Jim also lost a fortune shorting Tesla with me back in 2018......Jim said at the time:

'surfing with Sancho,where could it go wrong?'

On 30/11/2021 at 10:46, planit said:

It is clear the antibodies you get from catching Covid are much better than the ones you get from the vaccines.

You clearly don't work in the Covid Health Service ........don't take any free train tickets anywhere.

[BadAlchemy]

Tweet of the day, and me right now...

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, BadAlchemy said:

And I even checked the MACD and stochastic (thanks for your detailed explanations of those measures several months ago, by the way) before buying them and they told me I should probably wait a bit longer, but the volatility got to me and I needed more exposure to silver miners and everyone on fintwit is saying how cheap silver is and... and ... and I'll get my coat !

Must try to be more disciplined in this uncertain time and only shoot when I see the whites of their eyes!

I do exactly the same! 

[sancho panza]

On 30/11/2021 at 14:59, Cattle Prod said:

A very important point. People go on about low velocity, but it's just a ratio of GDP to M2. What do you expect when M2 is being pumped up like this...

Velocity is a function of GDP and M whatever.However,the key thing for me is to ascertain the psycholgy behind it.Take Zimbabwe,there came a point when people began spending moeny,not becasue they wanted to,but becasue they knew it would be woprthless if they didn't .

This brings forward demand and creates distortions economcially.We're nowhere near there,but once people begin fearing devaluation,then we'll se velocity move up and we'll see the demand pull inflation of neo classical textbooks.

As an off shoot,I've been toying with goldies calls last week after some losses in Oct/Nov.

Apologies for the advert line acorss this screenshot but don't know how to get of it.Key thing is goldies look undervalued here .this is from the monthly peak jan 08(gold is in err...gold)

and from June 03

On 30/11/2021 at 17:09, Transistor Man said:

https://news.samsung.com/us/samsung-new-advanced-semiconductor-fab-site-taylor-texas/

 

Just psoting some of thedetail there TM...interesting move....new cold war?

'Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., a world leader in advanced semiconductor technology, today announced that it would build a new semiconductor manufacturing facility in Taylor, Texas. The estimated $17 billion investment in the United States will help boost production of advanced logic semiconductor solutions that power next-generation innovations and technologies.

The total expected investment of $17 billion, including buildings, property improvements, machinery and equipment, will mark the largest-ever investment made by Samsung in the U.S. This will also bring Samsung’s total investment in the U.S. to more than $47 billion since beginning operations in the country in 1978, where the company now has over 20,000 employees across the country.

[Eventually Right]

Hi @DurhamBorn,

I'm sure you've articulated it before-so apologies for asking, but with regards to silver, which I believe you still see as one of the likely biggest winners of this cycle-what are your reasons for that thesis?  I assume it's a mix of increased investment demand, and industrial demand (solar etc), but I wondered what you think will be the main driver?

This latest silver dip has me questioning myself, as I'm probably too overweight the sector compared to energy/telecoms etc.

I seem to repeatedly see things that I think should be bullish for precious metals-Central Banks buying gold, heavy demand for retail gold in India/China, silver coins going for way over spot price, the US Mint halting production of silver eagles for the rest of the year etc-not to mention repeated high inflation figures.  But for the last 16 months gold and silver have just consolidated/drifted down slightly, and the miners lost 30%ish.  In the same timeframe, the S&P and Nasdaq have gained over 40%.

I see debates on twitter on how manipulated the gold and silver markets are by paper gold/silver, the bullion banks/Comex etc.  The guys on both sides are far more knowledgeable than I am on the market, so I can't really have a firm opinion on it, other than to say that it seems weird to me when a market participant dumps huge amounts of paper gold/silver on the market at very illiquid times, which causes the price to tank.  Do you have a view on this at all?

I also worry that if this is how gold/silver have acted with big inflation prints, how far would they drop if inflation pulls back for a few months...

Thanks in advance!

[Lightscribe]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

  I started by looking at a Jackery, etc and suffered a bit of scope creep!  I really like the microscope.  I never knew they existed.  Very useful, and good value.  Cheers.

I mention this storage stuff here as I can see this becoming a popular area what with energy costs, smart meters, differential tariffs, grid issues, etc.  For me personally, it's an example of how I can invest depreciating or to-be-stolen fiat now to save money and/or just live better down the line.  Putting money outside of the burning building of a system.  At source!  A bit of faith on my side rather than any detailed financial analysis.  The components are going up in price atm with the supply shortages, etc so it was a bit stressy to get it all done.  But I feel great for having done something given my concerns about the future. 

You can actually get the microscopes cheaper than that, obviously adding import charges.

https://a.aliexpress.com/_mr2I0Fo

All that and a decent Fluke multimeter and your well away and can pinpoint most issues and fix. 

I prefer to use solder paste and flux syringes and decent solder wick (MG chemicals super wick) when working on the small stuff.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/RELIFE-RL-405-Lead-free-Temperature-Soldering/dp/B08YRZPBZJ/ref=mp_s_a_1_12?keywords=solder+paste&qid=1638472125&sr=8-12

 

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

You can actually get the microscopes cheaper than that, obviously adding import charges.

https://a.aliexpress.com/_mr2I0Fo

All that and a decent Fluke multimeter and your well away and can pinpoint most issues and fix. 

I prefer to use solder paste and flux syringes when working on the small stuff.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/RELIFE-RL-405-Lead-free-Temperature-Soldering/dp/B08YRZPBZJ/ref=mp_s_a_1_21?adgrpid=56074884889&gclid=Cj0KCQiA-qGNBhD3ARIsAO_o7ykYAPbwAOddEPN_x6Kj3v0s8U6eTEPNONXzFIx5f539Lb6LZ3-cL1YaAppHEALw_wcB&hvadid=259147524197&hvdev=m&hvlocphy=20339&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=e&hvrand=18029711167348489102&hvtargid=kwd-298113167461&hydadcr=16882_1798501&keywords=solder+paste+syringe&qid=1638471795&sr=8-21

It's all changed since I was a hobby electronics lad.  Got a PIV system on me workbench to debug tomorrow.

[sancho panza]

7 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

Noticed that Shell and Chevron have increased their share buybacks just as the seer of Durham predicted

Why wouldn't you at these prices?Big oil still looking cheap compared to the underlying.they know what's coming.

from mar 20

from jan 16

 

Decl:very long

 

[DurhamBorn]

14 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

Hi @DurhamBorn,

I'm sure you've articulated it before-so apologies for asking, but with regards to silver, which I believe you still see as one of the likely biggest winners of this cycle-what are your reasons for that thesis?  I assume it's a mix of increased investment demand, and industrial demand (solar etc), but I wondered what you think will be the main driver?

This latest silver dip has me questioning myself, as I'm probably too overweight the sector compared to energy/telecoms etc.

I seem to repeatedly see things that I think should be bullish for precious metals-Central Banks buying gold, heavy demand for retail gold in India/China, silver coins going for way over spot price, the US Mint halting production of silver eagles for the rest of the year etc-not to mention repeated high inflation figures.  But for the last 16 months gold and silver have just consolidated/drifted down slightly, and the miners lost 30%ish.  In the same timeframe, the S&P and Nasdaq have gained over 40%.

I see debates on twitter on how manipulated the gold and silver markets are by paper gold/silver, the bullion banks/Comex etc.  The guys on both sides are far more knowledgeable than I am on the market, so I can't really have a firm opinion on it, other than to say that it seems weird to me when a market participant dumps huge amounts of paper gold/silver on the market at very illiquid times, which causes the price to tank.  Do you have a view on this at all?

I also worry that if this is how gold/silver have acted with big inflation prints, how far would they drop if inflation pulls back for a few months...

Thanks in advance!

Take a Silver Brit,or Maple in your hand,consider how much it costs today to buy one.Now imagine a system so leveraged it needs trillions and trillions printing just to fund welfare,never mind other demands.Name me something,anything you can buy today at that price that is rare, beautiful,money etc that has the potential of silver to x10,x20?

Thats the answer.Given the system and the liquidity needed to stop it rolling over to the stone age the potential is incredible.I dont even think about my silver even though its a big chunk of my worth.I get $200+ or i die holding it.Both are coming,its just what comes first.The best lesson anyone can learn in the markets is to let things go to where they are going in their own time.

As for the NASDAQ etc why care?,DRAX,RM,Mosaic and many others have 3x ,4x etc in the same months.Going to where they were going in their own time.

£50k in Tesla or £50k in silver,but you have to hold for 5 years and cant sell,what would you choose?

The miners already ran before and have simply given up some gains,never linear.

[Eventually Right]

47 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Take a Silver Brit,or Maple in your hand,consider how much it costs today to buy one.Now imagine a system so leveraged it needs trillions and trillions printing just to fund welfare,never mind other demands.Name me something,anything you can buy today at that price that is rare, beautiful,money etc that has the potential of silver to x10,x20?

Thats the answer.Given the system and the liquidity needed to stop it rolling over to the stone age the potential is incredible.I dont even think about my silver even though its a big chunk of my worth.I get $200+ or i die holding it.Both are coming,its just what comes first.The best lesson anyone can learn in the markets is to let things go to where they are going in their own time.

As for the NASDAQ etc why care?,DRAX,RM,Mosaic and many others have 3x ,4x etc in the same months.Going to where they were going in their own time.

£50k in Tesla or £50k in silver,but you have to hold for 5 years and cant sell,what would you choose?

The miners already ran before and have simply given up some gains,never linear.

Thanks DB, I agree on the beauty of them-I cant see myself selling my queen’s beasts unless the price gets ridiculous.

It’s my fault for being over concentrated-great on the way up, less fun when other things are outperforming! 

I’d have the £50k in silver any day, over Tesla-I’ve tried to short that before with options, and it’ll be a  good day if Musk ever gets his comeuppance... 

[CannonFodder]

Wednesday, Uk watchdog orders an american icon facebook to sell giphey. Bit cheeky...

Two days later USA states tarriffs to stay if article 16 dropped.

Boris playing with the big boys now.

Cant see economics going better than foreign policy

[macca]

On 29/11/2021 at 10:30, HousePriceMania said:

And, just for balance...

 

 

Its lack of slave labours fault now..  Not money printing, 0% interest rates and asset stripping of the country..

Its because we cant get people to do work on the cheap,, Well there were 20 mopeds outside MacDonalds yesterday that would say that's bollocks, They are delivering for 35p an hour then pulling in the bennies,, init 

[Chewing Grass]

Tonight Martin Lewis told the plebs to do nothing when a ransom letter comes through your door from Energy McEnergyFace when your Tariff ends as then its the Governments Problem if they don't like it.

[Hancock]

3 hours ago, Boon said:

No, but pretty sure there are similar examples on this in every area.

Average income in Oxford must be more than average, although its academic as you couldn't borrow on that.

More pertinently, assuming it costs £100k to do up then it may rent for £1k a month and two people on an ordinary income could afford it, and Homes under the Hammer regulars will tell you that's a 4% yield and better than the bank account. 

The thought of earning the same through a dividend (and also have the prospect of capital appreciation) isn't gonna appeal to these people.

That is why there are buyers for these sort of things, at those sort of prices.

That'll be Blackbird Leys, Oxfords main council estate.

The average wage should get you somewhere "average", thats well below average prior to it being burnt out.

Sort of place oop North that you can just about get for 4 times average local wage.

[Hancock]

12 minutes ago, macca said:

Its lack of slave labours fault now..  Not money printing, 0% interest rates and asset stripping of the country..

Its because we cant get people to do work on the cheap,, Well there were 20 mopeds outside MacDonalds yesterday that would say that's bollocks, They are delivering for 35p an hour then pulling in the bennies,, init 

Im truly amazed at the amount of people who get Mcdonalds delivered, there must be 10s of 1000s of morbidly obese people who don't leave the house as bennies can pay for some immigrant to deliver them a heart attack and coke.

[CannonFodder]

46 minutes ago, PrincessDrac said:

Link

Anyone own Fortuna Silver Mines Inc? Just bought in my first ladder, missed the bottom of ~ $3.15 as I was out. But i got in at the close at $3.26.

I bought 400 shares. Every 15 to 20 cents drop I think i'l buy another 400 odd shares.

Any thoughts, am I catching a falling knife here? A nice silver play for the long term I hope.

 

I used to but sold them in march, one of my better decisions. There are issues operationally, stopped paying attention after sale.

I.ld say high risk , only put in what thou can lose, but could come good.I wont hold them again. DYOR

Edit to add, they have 3 big mines, one in Peru, political risk, second in mexico in trouble, environmental permit and tribal risk, the mexican one too much risk for me

[BadAlchemy]

13 minutes ago, PrincessDrac said:

Link

Anyone own Fortuna Silver Mines Inc? Just bought in my first ladder, missed the bottom of ~ $3.15 as I was out. But i got in at the close at $3.26.

I bought 400 shares. Every 15 to 20 cents drop I think i'l buy another 400 odd shares.

Any thoughts, am I catching a falling knife here? A nice silver play for the long term I hope.

 

You did well there. $3.72 for me some time last week I think. I'm holding...

Started digging out some weeds in the garden today. Anything to keep me away from the Buy button 

[Boon]

39 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Im truly amazed at the amount of people who get Mcdonalds delivered, there must be 10s of 1000s of morbidly obese people who don't leave the house as bennies can pay for some immigrant to deliver them a heart attack and coke.

This amazes me too from multiple aspects. 

Why the hell do people get junk food delivered in the first place? 

Secondly why the hell do people order off Uber Eats? The prices are about 30% more expensive than the shop, as the takeaway needs to cover the fees (Mcdonalds is an exception)

How do Uber Eats actually make money? A driver is paid £3.50 per delivery minimum. McDonalds seem to be a small loss leader for them, just a way to give their drivers regular work. 

On the rest they are basically hoping that people are idiots and pony up for the big takeaways, ie a £35 takeaway might earn Uber £10 in fees, which only £3.5 is paid to the driver. But this might be quite rare. 

Just seems to me to be one of those things which is never gonna be profitable.