Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Axeman123]

2 minutes ago, AWW said:

I wonder if that is that due to lack of jobs, or lack of those willing to do them?

Another perspective (from an admittedly dodgy source):

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/reason-behind-todays-massive-payrolls-miss-huge-seasonal-adjustment-flaw

"The implications: i) hiring, as hinted by the Household model, is quite strong but is hidden by model mechanics; and ii) more importantly, the faulty application of seasonal adjustment methodology lowered the November payrolls print by at least 200K; or as SouthBay summarizes it, "Far from being a weak November" this was a pretty strong report."

[JMD]

An interesting (and very long) essay on current high market valuations, capitol and labour, and possible solutions, by Julius Krein, a previous trader, but now market cynic, and deep thinker on these topics.                    https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2021/08/the-value-of-nothing-capital-versus-growth/

[Hancock]

 

5 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I am shocked. Shocked, I tell thee.

Bank of England rate hike supporter gets Omicron jitters as firms face 'strongest inflation pressures for 23 years' | Business News | Sky News

It's as though a reason for not hiking rates (other than world-crippling debt costs) was needed.

After the Brexit vote, didnt they call an emergency meeting to put interest rates down within a couple of days.

Great that they're independent, independent from their fucken brains.

 

[JimmyTheBruce]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv just been to Morrisons for my yearly stock up on beef joints at £6 a kilo,much better than Tesco where 20% is "basting fat",i get the biggest,cut in half,freeze and hot roast beef sarrnies etc for the year.Most people are dumb as shit.I was the only one in there not wearing a mask and it seems the only one who knew most of the prices were much cheaper elsewhere.Eye watering prices on most things.

Nobody said a word about no mask,but some women did have that look in their eyes that you were some kind of sexy rebel while their wimps of husbands sat scared behind their masks.I used the till where the woman had no mask on and i commented on how i was glad she hadnt covered up her lovely face ,got one of those smiles,you know the ones,,still got it 

I'm increasingly of the view that Durham must be some sort of Shangri-la.  When I go to Morrisons everyone is either 25 stone or smells of wee.  If any of them smiled at me I'd make a break for the door, throwing my yellow ticket items behind me like chaff.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Panic over boys. We're saved.

 

[harp]

David Hunter is saying this is it for PM’s. 
Then says a couple of tweets down that he’s a strategist and doesn’t make timing calls. 
This guy is still a fucking utter COCK!!

 

[Axeman123]

19 minutes ago, harp said:

David Hunter is saying this is it for PM’s. Then says a couple of tweets down that he’s a strategist and doesn’t make timing calls. 

I think his increased followership has gone to his head. I can remember when he had a couple of thousand or something, back then this was all fields...

[harp]

9 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I think his increased followership has gone to his head. I can remember when he had a couple of thousand or something, back then this was all fields...

Yep, the more followers the more people he can flog his “contrarian” newletter to. 
I know people respect him. But he’s a cunt and ALWAYS says this when there’s a little pump. 

[CannonFodder]

At start of mar 20 crash, he was saying ignore the tape, weak hands get shaken out. Gold to 2500 etc

I held, i lost a lot, so be it. I didnt base my call just on his spiel and really take with a pinch of salt anything one reads.

He doesnt seem to acknowledge his misreads

[JimmyTheBruce]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Panic over boys. We're saved.

 

[planit]

 

Quote

Whoppers were £1 Weds on the app,sod Mcdonalds,get the Burger King app.

 

5 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Wow, 85% off, talk about loss making offers 

 

Missed it, I should have bought the dip and loaded up with a year's supply. 

 

I think I read a few years ago that McDonalds burgers can last 10 years in a jacket pocket.

Here we go:

McDonald's burger bought in Utah in 1999 looks exactly the same as the day it was first flipped

 

[Axeman123]

11 minutes ago, harp said:

I know people respect him. But he’s a cunt 

Fair play. What he does isn't a good fit for twitter, and his over use of the platform just compounds it.

His calls have been bang on in several areas though, in oil for example both at the Mar 2020 bottom and the recent top when everyone one else was calling for the opposite. Those calls can't be dismissed as a stopped clock etc.

 

[Castlevania]

18 minutes ago, planit said:

 

 

 

Missed it, I should have bought the dip and loaded up with a year's supply. 

 

I think I read a few years ago that McDonalds burgers can last 10 years in a jacket pocket.

Here we go:

McDonald's burger bought in Utah in 1999 looks exactly the same as the day it was first flipped

 

79 cents in 1999

[Axeman123]

23 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

At start of mar 20 crash, he was saying ignore the tape, weak hands get shaken out. Gold to 2500 etc

...

He doesnt seem to acknowledge his misreads

Heres a monthly chart of gold, with an arrow pointing at March 2020. I went through hell with GJGB at that time, but looking back he was right to say hold. Still waiting on 2500 obviously...

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, harp said:

David Hunter is saying this is it for PM’s. 
Then says a couple of tweets down that he’s a strategist and doesn’t make timing calls. 
This guy is still a fucking utter COCK!!

 

FFS, is that a reversal from an up or from a down?  Which depends on which chart and how you read it.  Sure, Twitter requires brevity but come on, not to the point of jibberish.

[CannonFodder]

Thing is, he wasnt just saying hold gold, he was saying buy stocks, and his gold calls keep getting pushed out, eventually he will be right

[Harley]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv just been to Morrisons for my yearly stock up on beef joints at £6 a kilo,much better than Tesco where 20% is "basting fat",i get the biggest,cut in half,freeze and hot roast beef sarrnies etc for the year.Most people are dumb as shit.I was the only one in there not wearing a mask and it seems the only one who knew most of the prices were much cheaper elsewhere.Eye watering prices on most things.

Nobody said a word about no mask,but some women did have that look in their eyes that you were some kind of sexy rebel while their wimps of husbands sat scared behind their masks.I used the till where the woman had no mask on and i commented on how i was glad she hadnt covered up her lovely face ,got one of those smiles,you know the ones,,still got it 

Eh?  You bought meat in Morrison's but knew you could get it cheaper elsewhere? 

And what you do with the joints exactly - cut in half and frozen but surely you don't defrost a whole one?  I'd need a chainsaw to cut small bits off for sarnies,  etc instead.

Confused!

[Harley]

6 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Wow, 85% off, talk about loss making offers 

There was a time I used to go to Burger King.  I always asked for the voucher book (they usually had one behind the counter).  No need to hope to get one in the shops, etc.  I rarely paid full price!

[Axeman123]

29 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Thing is, he wasnt just saying hold gold, he was saying buy stocks, and his gold calls keep getting pushed out, eventually he will be right

Fair play, I was only following his metals and miners call at the time.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Eh?  You bought meat in Morrison's but knew you could get it cheaper elsewhere? 

And what you do with the joints exactly - cut in half and frozen but surely you don't defrost a whole one?  I'd need a chainsaw to cut small bits off for sarnies,  etc instead.

Confused!

Cheap meat is shit, go to a proper butcher. The bit with a lot of fat on it was a lazy happy animal and will taste all the better for it.

You might even get the butcher to slice it thinly for you.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Eh?  You bought meat in Morrison's but knew you could get it cheaper elsewhere? 

And what you do with the joints exactly - cut in half and frozen but surely you don't defrost a whole one?  I'd need a chainsaw to cut small bits off for sarnies,  etc instead.

Confused!

Nooo the meat is cheapest in Morrisons on those joints (actually same in Asda and Tesco,but Tescos is 20% basting fat) they put the offer on every xmas,everything else much more expensive in Morrisons,apart from cling film,thats 60p,very cheap.I cut them in half and freeze yes,but i defrost and cook the half not slice off frozen  ,,Roughly works out a fiver and il cook one for hot beef,sarnies,beef dinner etc.Usually find i can get 3 nights meals off one for two of us.

I didn notice in Morrisons though most of the customers were pensioners,very few younger family types,looks like their customers will die off over time and not be replaced,im glad those yanks bought them off me for once.

[Hancock]

57 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Cheap meat is shit, go to a proper butcher. The bit with a lot of fat on it was a lazy happy animal and will taste all the better for it.

You might even get the butcher to slice it thinly for you.

Got some Aldi braising steak today to make my own burgers, now i shop around usually avoid Aldi for meat, but these were arguably the best burgers i've ever made.

Twice through the leccy mincing machine, generous helping of salt and pepper, put into 125g pates then 4 minutes either side on almost full heat ....made them up there with 5 Guys! but for a fraction of the price. 

Used Tesco bread buns 4 for 70p, slice of burger cheese and a rasher of bacon ... + ketchup.

Relatively healthy junk food, cant beat it.

[Eventually Right]

6 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

My word I love that film.

 

Along with the Big Short they really sum up where we're at in my opinion.

 

Hammer's about to drop and 99% of people haven't got a clue what's coming.

I love this speech by Paul Bettany’s character 

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Nooo the meat is cheapest in Morrisons on those joints (actually same in Asda and Tesco,but Tescos is 20% basting fat) they put the offer on every xmas,everything else much more expensive in Morrisons,apart from cling film,thats 60p,very cheap.I cut them in half and freeze yes,but i defrost and cook the half not slice off frozen  ,,Roughly works out a fiver and il cook one for hot beef,sarnies,beef dinner etc.Usually find i can get 3 nights meals off one for two of us.

I didn notice in Morrisons though most of the customers were pensioners,very few younger family types,looks like their customers will die off over time and not be replaced,im glad those yanks bought them off me for once.

Ah, ta.  We have a small roast Sunday and can get at least two meals for two out of the rest if combined with other things.  Makes a nice change.  Your special fried rice is great with some pork.  These dishes don't need much meat.  Same with steak, keep half cooked back, slice later and have with mushrooms, onions, english mustard and a drop of sherry.  Add some rice and veg.  A quick meal for two.  As you say, home cooking can be cheap and excellent.  We do loads of stuff like this.  People seem to eat too much meat (don't split a pack) and we like the veg just as much.

Morrisons are crap IMO.  Not just their BS at the start of covid but also the prices.  We went to do a shop once and smelt a rat so got out the prior week's Aldi receipt to compare prices.  We just put everything back and left.

[Castlevania]

11 hours ago, Harley said:

There was a time I used to go to Burger King.  I always asked for the voucher book (they usually had one behind the counter).  No need to hope to get one in the shops, etc.  I rarely paid full price!

McDonald’s used to put vouchers in the free newspapers. They never used to check whether you had said voucher, simply ask for the offer and they gave it to you. Same if you bought a meal state that you’re a student and they’ll give you a free cheeseburger, they never checked.