Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[jamtomorrow]

15 hours ago, JMD said:

An interesting (and very long) essay on current high market valuations, capitol and labour, and possible solutions, by Julius Krein, a previous trader, but now market cynic, and deep thinker on these topics.                    https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2021/08/the-value-of-nothing-capital-versus-growth/

Long yes, but completely riveting. Good find @JMD, thank you for sharing.

A lot of overlap with this article, also posted recently: https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/a-self-fulfilling-prophecy-systemic-collapse-and-pandemic-simulation/

Does make me wonder to what extent bubble stocks are explained by the macro picture, versus the natural tendency of late-stage liberal capitalism to degenerate into rent-seeking and oligarchy.

Bitterly ironic that the endpoint works out the same as with socialism: an overweening self-appointed elite calling the shots and, sooner or later, killing the goose.

The key quote for me:

"To seriously confront China, the U.S. state would first have to gain supremacy over the oligarchs. But if the state were strong enough to do that, the current situation would not have arisen in the first place, and a reasonable settlement with China could probably be negotiated."

The health of a political economy is measured in part by the vitality of the struggle between the public and private spheres. When there's no longer a visible struggle and they appear to have merged and become the same thing, and there's broad agreement on how things should be arranged - well that's when you know you're in *real* trouble.

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

Ah, ta.  We have a small roast Sunday and can get at least two meals for two out of the rest if combined with other things.  Makes a nice change.  Your special fried rice is great with some pork.  These dishes don't need much meat.  Same with steak, keep half cooked back, slice later and have with mushrooms, onions, english mustard and a drop of sherry.  Add some rice and veg.  A quick meal for two.  As you say, home cooking can be cheap and excellent.  We do loads of stuff like this.  People seem to eat too much meat (don't split a pack) and we like the veg just as much.

Morrisons are crap IMO.  Not just their BS at the start of covid but also the prices.  We went to do a shop once and smelt a rat so got out the prior week's Aldi receipt to compare prices.  We just put everything back and left.

After finance its the thing im most pleased i can do,cooking.Like you say a wok can make fantastic meals and use only small amounts of meat.Veg is still dirt cheap in Lidl ,Aldi and Tesco.Im doing a lot of roast veg now in olive oil.Morrisons prices are way out now and it was obvious their customers were 70+ and not bothered about prices due to pensions etc.

[Innkeeper]

Yup, Morrison’s most expensive after Ocado and Waitrose according to Which....

 

Aldi is officially the UK's cheapest supermarket in September 2021, according to Which? - just beating rival Lidl by 37p. 

A basket of 22 branded and unbranded goods cost £24.03 at Aldi and £24.40 at Lidl, which won in August. 

The Which? research also found Aldi was a massive 38% cheaper than the most expensive supermarket for an equivalent basket of items. 

The most-expensive supermarket was Waitrose, where the products cost 38% more than Aldi, at £33.06.

At Asda the price was £26.19, and at Sainsbury's £27.95.

Morrisons charged £28.31 for the goods, tied with Tesco.

Ocado asked £29.84 for the items, and Waitrose was the most expensive (£33.06).

 

[DurhamBorn]

56 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

McDonald’s used to put vouchers in the free newspapers. They never used to check whether you had said voucher, simply ask for the offer and they gave it to you. Same if you bought a meal state that you’re a student and they’ll give you a free cheeseburger, they never checked.

I remember when KFC used to do buy on get one free on the back of parking tickets.An older guy i worked with worked out the way the wind blew down a certain car park and the bush all the discarded tickets used to fly into ,he used to send his wife into the bush to collect them,she was 20 years younger than him and gorgeous,yet he had her crawling around bushes for those tickets.

[DurhamBorn]

10 hours ago, Hancock said:

Got some Aldi braising steak today to make my own burgers, now i shop around usually avoid Aldi for meat, but these were arguably the best burgers i've ever made.

Twice through the leccy mincing machine, generous helping of salt and pepper, put into 125g pates then 4 minutes either side on almost full heat ....made them up there with 5 Guys! but for a fraction of the price. 

Used Tesco bread buns 4 for 70p, slice of burger cheese and a rasher of bacon ... + ketchup.

Relatively healthy junk food, cant beat it.

"Junk" food made at home is quite healthy,its all the crap they add during the process.I make burger,i always add an egg,minced onion,mixed italian herbs to the mix blitzed up.I usually use the cheap 20% mince when i get it reduced in Lidl for 70p though.Iv got a mincer on my food processor and iv never used it,il have to give it a go.

[RWJ]

This is all great stuff.... maybe we need a home cooking thread.

Just picked up a smoked ham reduced to £3 in Sainsbury's, now in the slow cooker and it'll do me the whole weekend.  Pot of soup will be made from the stock.

Pizza dough is defrosting for my daughter's weekend pizza.  I'm finding dough that's been frozen then defrosted makes for a much nicer pizza base.  I make a large batch, divide and freeze.  Cuts down the amount of yeast needed and the ballache of making dough every weekend.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

cooking.Like you say a wok can make fantastic meals and use only small amounts of meat

A wok is incredibly energy efficient, you can cook most things on the smallest burner on a gas hob, that's using 1KW per hour.

Carbon steel and copper pans also make a big difference energy use wise, good investments IMO.

[belfastchild]

28 minutes ago, RWJ said:

This is all great stuff.... maybe we need a home cooking thread.

 

Ive mentioned it in passing but will mention it again here.
The local food cash and carries used to be trade only (self employed would do, any self employed really), but during lockdowns opened up to the public (after 10 or 11am after trade people got in and got the reductions - I go in 8-9am on a Friday as they have less weekend staff and sometimes mark down things that would really need to be marked down Sunday or Monday but there wont be the staff). Worth looking to see if there are any local places to you rather than paying costco membership. Big chinese supplies places over here are open to the public as well.

Maybe not as cheap as the supermarkets marked down but a lot of the stuff I see in local butchers is there. I buy things like whole veg roll/black puddings/sirloins/boxes of fresh chicken/pork loins and cut up and portion up and freeze at home.
If you get a reduction on any of these then its great!

Bought loads and loads of dried spices/herbs pre brexit but have since started growing a lot of them (including the hard to find jalapenos) in a mini greenhouse/conservatory during the summer. Fresh herbs with everything during summer and the excess I hang up to dry out and then stick in a container or with the jalapenos/tomatoes use the free summer electric and dehydrator or just freeze in bags for including in stews/curries later.

I used my NI free money card to stock up on stuff and changing electric supplier should give me a 100 quid tesco voucher (first time I will have stepped foot in there in almost 2 years). Running down one of the freezers at the minute with all the soups/stews I made with free electric during the summer so will defrost it and transfer one of the others and turn that off (unless I see good reductions post christmas).

[RWJ]

13 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

The local food cash and carries

Cheers.  I must seek out one of these.  Not eating carbs I go through a hell of a lot of meats so I'm always on the look out for reductions.

23rd/24th Dec tends to be a good time to scan the supermarkets for vastly reduced meats and cheeses as they're clearing out ahead of the holidays.

[Animal Spirits]

Saxo Bank Outrageous Predictions
2022: Revolution

https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/thought-leadership/outrageous-predictions

1. The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check
2. Facebook faceplants on youth exodus
3. The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis
4. US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral
5. EU Superfund for climate, energy and defence announced, to be funded by private pensions
6. Women’s Reddit Army takes on the corporate patriarchy
7. India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member
8. Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform
9. New hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war
10. Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years

[Innkeeper]

9 minutes ago, Animal Spirits said:

Saxo Bank Outrageous Predictions
2022: Revolution

https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/thought-leadership/outrageous-predictions

If the last one comes true, the planet is well and truly stuffed 

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I remember when KFC used to do buy on get one free on the back of parking tickets.An older guy i worked with worked out the way the wind blew down a certain car park and the bush all the discarded tickets used to fly into ,he used to send his wife into the bush to collect them,she was 20 years younger than him and gorgeous,yet he had her crawling around bushes for those tickets.

My old flatmate dated a girl who worked at KFC head office. She gave both of us a KFC Chicken cheque book each. The cheques are blank, and can be used as payment (with no max value) at KFC. Long after they’d split up, we’d go to KFC hungover and order the entire menu and have it all for free. 

I haven’t had a KFC since.

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

My old flatmate dated a girl who worked at KFC head office. She gave both of us a KFC Chicken cheque book each. The cheques are blank, and can be used as payment (with no max value) at KFC. Long after they’d split up, we’d go to KFC hungover and order the entire menu and have it all for free. 

I haven’t had a KFC since.

Finger Lickin' Good.

[Castlevania]

41 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Cheers.  I must seek out one of these.  Not eating carbs I go through a hell of a lot of meats so I'm always on the look out for reductions.

23rd/24th Dec tends to be a good time to scan the supermarkets for vastly reduced meats and cheeses as they're clearing out ahead of the holidays.

After Christmas too. Those cheese selection boxes can usually be picked up for a fraction of the original price.

If you have a Waitrose near by they sell a block of sausage meat (they actually sell it year round) and always have loads massively reduced after Christmas. It’s amazing.

[ThoughtCriminal]

“Even the most circumspect friend of the market would concede that the volume of brokers’ loans—of loans collateraled by the securities purchased on margin—is a good index of the volume of speculation.” -John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash 1929 

 

No fucking shit John. No fucking shit.

[Harley]

50 minutes ago, Animal Spirits said:

Saxo Bank Outrageous Predictions
2022: Revolution

https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/thought-leadership/outrageous-predictions

1. The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check
2. Facebook faceplants on youth exodus
3. The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis
4. US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral
5. EU Superfund for climate, energy and defence announced, to be funded by private pensions
6. Women’s Reddit Army takes on the corporate patriarchy
7. India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member
8. Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform
9. New hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war
10. Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years

Compared to recent times that would be a most welcomed quite year!

[Harley]

24 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

After Christmas too. Those cheese selection boxes can usually be picked up for a fraction of the original price.

If you have a Waitrose near by they sell a block of sausage meat (they actually sell it year round) and always have loads massively reduced after Christmas. It’s amazing.

I try but they all go, god knows where.  It's like easter eggs.  Go in the day after and it's like it never happened!

 

[Axeman123]

51 minutes ago, Animal Spirits said:

1. The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check Yes
2. Facebook faceplants on youth exodus Yes
3. The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis Yes
4. US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral No, but only bcause BK intervenes
5. EU Superfund for climate, energy and defence announced, to be funded by private pensions Sadly seems innevitable
6. Women’s Reddit Army takes on the corporate patriarchy Who cares?
7. India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member No Idea
8. Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform No Idea
9. New hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war Yes
10. Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years Hopefully, but would probably need a big war to offset

You have to give it to the man from Durham, everyone else is playing catch-up

[Errol]

19 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

My word I love that film.

Love Margin Call. Probably one of my favourite films. I think in many ways it is better than the Big Short. It shows the world of business and banking in a much more realistic way, with the whole thing played out in offices and people stabbing each other in the back.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

A wok is incredibly energy efficient, you can cook most things on the smallest burner on a gas hob, that's using 1KW per hour.

Carbon steel and copper pans also make a big difference energy use wise, good investments IMO.

For anyone wanting a quality Wok without breaking the bank i got this one a year ago and is superb.I got the 13ln perfect size for one or two portions.You need to spend an hour seasoning it though with quality veg oil,heat up rub oil around,keep repeating until black,best to watch a guide on Youtube to seasoning a wok.Then the knack is just use water to clean and a light brush never ever ever use washing up liquid or anything,once clean dry with kitchen towel then heat up to evaporate any water then add a drop of oil and cover whole wok while on burner,then a little more when cooled down and put away.My chinese cooking is very close to take away with this.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00237VCC8/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o09_s00?ie=UTF8&th=1

 

[feed]

1 hour ago, Innkeeper said:

If the last one comes true, the planet is well and truly stuffed 

Average. 

Uncle Bill and chums get 100 years, everyone else goes down. 

[Innkeeper]

4 minutes ago, feed said:

Average. 

Uncle Bill and chums get 100 years, everyone else goes down. 

A few oligarchs getting to a ton wouldn’t change the average.

That’s  only possible if the entire western world and half the Asians get a bump of 30 years plus, with Africans and South Americans hanging behind..

[feed]

8 minutes ago, Innkeeper said:

A few oligarchs getting to a ton wouldn’t change the average.

That’s  only possible if the entire western world and half the Asians get a bump of 30 years plus, with Africans and South Americans hanging behind..

i was sort of joking, point being it isn't going to be an even increase.  Wealth will mean it's asymmetric. Outside of those countries that are playing catch up with 21st century basics. 

 

[jamtomorrow]

1 hour ago, Innkeeper said:

If the last one comes true, the planet is well and truly stuffed 

F***ing hell. Somebody really needs to get a grip on this life-extension crap: the young are *supposed* to *replace* the old. Mess with that and you mess with everything.

We're starting to resemble this poor fellow ...

[Hancock]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

"Junk" food made at home is quite healthy,its all the crap they add during the process.I make burger,i always add an egg,minced onion,mixed italian herbs to the mix blitzed up.I usually use the cheap 20% mince when i get it reduced in Lidl for 70p though.Iv got a mincer on my food processor and iv never used it,il have to give it a go.

I got one of these last year for about £25 ... now up to £30 ... definitely worth the money,  minces the meat to perfect!

And easy to clean.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/194262882069?epid=2317030600&hash=item2d3af85715:g:zkMAAOSwVPRhCo1X