Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

I thought that was to prevent crashes when older batteries couldn't support the peak power requirements of the hardware? Have to confess haven't looked into it very deeply, but I am aware that you can turn it off in the settings.

Yeah, I am not 100% either. I do remember some scandal about Apple doing the throttling secretly, denying it, then claiming it was for people's own good. I beleive they were also sued for doing it in the EU. The option to disable throttling was introduced after all this, and users didn't have the claimed problems when doing so. 

[Axeman123]

13 hours ago, Harley said:

I do my own analysis.

100%, I just see DH etc as a jumping off point for my own thinking. 

13 hours ago, Harley said:

Surely he means the DJIA.  Why would he focus on utilities?  

Pretty much everyone thought that, but further down in the comments...

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

A stupid question but would appreciate an answer if anyone knows. 
 

I bought some Telefonica SA a few weeks ago and it’s now showing up on my H&L account as this:

No online dealing and the value has been removed from my account. 
 

I’ve checked the ‘key’ at the bottom and I’m none the wiser. I’ll call them Monday but was hoping for a quick answer. @DurhamBorn you have some TELEFONCIA SA - has the same happened to you? 

Nothing,thats the rights issue shares you get instead of the divi,late December it will remove itself and you will get one new TEF share for each 26 rights unless you elect to take cash,dont though.Once the shares arrive you can simply have more TEF shares,or sell the shares you got extra and have the cash from them,that way avoiding 19% withholding tax on Spanish dividends.

The RTS in the name means rights.

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Jesus Wept said:

Thank you so much @DurhamBorn

Still learning. 
 

Everything is wrapped in ISAs - but I will take the shares. I’ll keep an eye on it. 
 

Top man. 👍 Thought I’d had a very expensive lesson…. Phew ! 
 

Its actually better to get the divi as rights as it avoids 19% tax,they can only do it while they have treasury shares though.Iv been keeping the shares the last few times,but i havent decided this time if to keep them or sell.Im thinking about directing all dividends into silver now for a while,for smaller holdings though a good way to build position at these prices,i expect a 200% cycle return from them from here including dividends.

[DurhamBorn]

Telefonica - Stock Dividend

Your holding of 6,784 Shares within your SIPP

 

What is happening?

 

Telefonica recently announced details of a Stock Dividend to Shareholders as at close of business on 30 November 2021 with a cash option, giving you the right to receive additional Shares or a cash payment. As a holder of Telefonica Shares in your Hargreaves Lansdown SIPP you have been issued with one Right for each Share held at the qualifying time and now have 6,784 Rights.

 

What are my choices?

 

You now have 3 options to consider relating to the Rights and these are explained below in more detail.

 

Option 1 - Do nothing - DEFAULT. If you do not return an election by the deadline below and take no action you will receive 1 New Telefonica Shares for every 26 Rights held. The issue of New Ordinary Shares will not be subject to Spanish withholding tax. Any Rights that are not converted into New Shares i.e. not multiples of 26, will lapse and a cash payment will be made in their place. The New Shares are expected to be issued from 29 December 2021. Please note that if you choose this default option then you will not receive any further correspondence and this message should be treated as confirmation of your New Shares.

 

Option 2 - You can receive a cash payment. If you elect for this option by our midday on Wednesday 15 December 2021 deadline you will receive a cash payment of EUR0.148 per Right. The proceeds will be subject to a 19% Spanish withholding tax, i.e. you will receive EUR0.11988 per Right after tax. Cash proceeds are expected from 29 December 2021 and will be converted to Sterling by our Currency Department upon receipt subject to the prevailing exchange rate at that time and standard currency service fees.

 

You can make an election to receive the cash payment online by clicking on your SIPP in the ‘My Accounts’ section of our website. Please then select the dark blue Corporate Actions Icon alongside your Telefonica SA Dividend Rights and follow the online instructions provided.

 

Option 3 - You can sell your Rights. If you elect for this option by our 4:30pm on Wednesday 15 December 2021 deadline you will receive the prevailing market price of the Rights at the time of the sale subject to our standard telephone dealing fees. The proceeds of the sale will not be subject to Spanish withholding tax. You can only elect for this option by telephone on 0117 980 9800. N.B. we are unable to accept instructions to sell your Rights that are sent via the Corporate Actions section of our website or by email and such instructions will not be executed. No guarantee can be given that a market will continue to exist for these Rights until the 4:30pm Wednesday 15 December 2021 deadline. If we are unable to sell your Rights you will receive Shares under the default option (Option 1) instead.

 

If you have any queries regarding this matter please contact us here. Please note our staff can provide factual assistance but cannot provide advice about which option you should choose.

 

Yours sincerely

 

Andrew Smart

Corporate Actions

[Joxer]

1 hour ago, Jesus Wept said:

I’ll just do nothing then.

thanks again for taking the time to educate those on here who require it. 👍

Check your inbox in HL and you should have got the same message about the rigtts issue

[BadAlchemy]

This has cheered me up on a dark winter day with silver and the miners in the doldrums!....

https://silverseek.com/article/undersupplied-silver-follow-base-metals-deficit

A report from the 'Silver Institute', with some interesting charts and stats, predicting a supply deficit over the coming years in industrial metals. Mentions causes such as the push for EV/green infrastructure and risks from 'resource nationalism' in LTAM countries (e.g. see Peru and Hochschild), and lack of investment to replace old mines with new (sounding similar to discussions on here wrt oil/gas supply squeeze).

Interesting, and I did not know until now that silver supply (and price moves) correlates strongly with copper (and zinc/lead etc) as over 50% of it comes as a byproduct of mining those metals rather than from primary silver mines.

Long-ish article but  conclusion/summary as follows...

"Conclusion

A billion ounces of silver demand this year is expected to outpace silver supply leaving a 7-million-ounce deficit — the first in six years.

Last year due to covid-related mine closures, production from primary silver mines fell 11.9%, silver output from lead-zinc mines declined 7.4% and silver from gold mines shrunk 5.7%. Silver output from copper mines actually increased 3.5% (data from the 2021 World Silver Survey).

This year could be quite different. While mines are no longer closed due to covid and therefore are expected to regain 2020’s lost output, there are other challenges ahead. As we have identified, they include a steadily increasing supply-demand gap for copper, with a 3.8Mt deficit predicted by 2025; supply shortfalls in other base metals including zinc and nickel due to a lack of new projects; and resource nationalism in Peru, the world’s second-largest copper producer and the third-biggest miner of silver, behind #1 Mexico and #2 China. Major copper miners (with silver by-products) Chile and the DRC could also see resource nationalism affect silver production.

Continued supply constraints on silver, when combined with robust industrial and investment demand, are likely to power silver higher heading into the new year and beyond.

Richard (Rick) Mills
aheadoftheherd.com"

[Errol]

 

[CannonFodder]

I get private health care through work, first time ever they are putting in a policy excess to discourage folk, they absolutely rammed. So many giving up on nhs and going private, private overwhelmed. I do wonder if private health care a growth sector in uk going forwards.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

@sancho panza has been warning of us what's happening at the coalface:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/11/tenfold-increase-patients-waiting-eight-hours-transferred-ambulance/

Time for local communities to get tighter, give old folks your number if they fall, do a first aid course and find out where the nearest defibrillator is. Because despite the government taking some of the highest taxes in history out of your pocket, they aren't going to help you. They have better things to spend it on, like Test and Trace, or piss ups in Downing Street.

 

The government is finished now i think.Half of the public sector is sat at home on full pay,bennies worse than ever.BOE will be out of printing room in a few months and due to where government has directed liquidity GDP wont reach escape velocity.Its inflation with no growth here.Obvious to anyone this is the worst government in history by a long shot.Labour of course are a disaster as well,so the likely result is Boris gone and a Liz Truss PM.

[CannonFodder]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The government is finished now i think.Half of the public sector is sat at home on full pay,bennies worse than ever.BOE will be out of printing room in a few months and due to where government has directed liquidity GDP wont reach escape velocity.Its inflation with no growth here.Obvious to anyone this is the worst government in history by a long shot.Labour of course are a disaster as well,so the likely result is Boris gone and a Liz Truss PM.

Perhaps an unfair question but do you see the UK collapsing in an inflation - sterling down toilet - brain drain - printy public sector spiral before say the US lead the way. 

Its on the edge of my radar but my radar not as good as yours.

[Hancock]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The government is finished now i think.Half of the public sector is sat at home on full pay,bennies worse than ever.BOE will be out of printing room in a few months and due to where government has directed liquidity GDP wont reach escape velocity.Its inflation with no growth here.Obvious to anyone this is the worst government in history by a long shot.Labour of course are a disaster as well,so the likely result is Boris gone and a Liz Truss PM.

Its also the majority of people with rock solid safe jobs in the so called private sector, such as the FCA, banks, building societies etc etc.. that are sat at home doing sweet FA.

Its why they can string this out endlessly as plenty are going to support being sat at home with the kids on full pay.

I despair at the thought of Liz Truss, she's an incompetent social climber and by being in govt by default means she supports lockdowns.

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, CannonFodder said:

Perhaps an unfair question but do you see the UK collapsing in an inflation - sterling down toilet - brain drain - printy public sector spiral before say the US lead the way. 

Its on the edge of my radar but my radar not as good as yours.

The one thing in the UK's favour is the rest of Europe, OZ/NZ, Canada and the USA are seemingly as bad if not worse.

[Hancock]

Its this kind of thing that i despair at, which also doesnt bode well for the "infrastructure rebuild".

Theyve got £40 bln for track and trace, and god knows how much for all this PPE and the tests.

But when it comes to electrifying the rail lines and creating "proper jobs" , the cupboard is bare.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/11/treasury-blocks-30bn-plan-electrify-britains-railways/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

 

[Loki]

23 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

ever.BOE will be out of printing room in a few months and due to where government has directed liquidity GDP wont reach escape velocity.Its inflation with no growth here

Wow, that's bleak. You sound very definite too

[Hancock]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

Wow, that's bleak. You sound very definite too

Wonder if thats why Omicron is being promoted by the MSM this weekend ...  lockdowns and helicopter money in January?

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

Winder if thats why Omiscron is being promoted by the MSM this weekend ...  lockdowns and helicopter money in January?

It sounds like all that would do is just extend everything for a while, as previous liquidity has been wasted, even if this round was properly used. Apologies if I have got you wrong @DurhamBorn

[Phil]

1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

Perhaps an unfair question but do you see the UK collapsing in an inflation - sterling down toilet - brain drain - printy public sector spiral before say the US lead the way. 

Its on the edge of my radar but my radar not as good as yours.

Perhaps a brain drain, but the void has never been filled from the last brain drain. If it has,the void was fill by the forward thinking youth, then this is what we have. The BK isn’t far away. If your fortunate to have no debt ( imo) fill dem der boots after. It’s very close. I can smell it. 

[wherebee]

40 minutes ago, Phil said:

Perhaps a brain drain, but the void has never been filled from the last brain drain. If it has,the void was fill by the forward thinking youth, then this is what we have. The BK isn’t far away. If your fortunate to have no debt ( imo) fill dem der boots after. It’s very close. I can smell it. 

i've been anticipating a BK for 5 years.....

[jamtomorrow]

22 hours ago, wherebee said:

yeah, I think you are right.  I think a cheap android, up to date, is next.

Just done exactly this as a TOTP backup. "Old Faithful" main phone (5 years old) recently had its first crash & restart in months, and prompted me to consider the consequences of having to re-establish the 20 or so TOTPs that depend on it.

And then at some point Old Faithful will flip its final cycles and I'll probably double up the cheap backup model for a few years. That's Apple's nemesis right there: "good enough"

Bringing it somewhat back on topic ... is it just me, or is there still no 2FA at HL? Given we're nearly into 2022 - and in terms of WTF is going on with their IT, and therefore the general solidity of their platform - surely that's red flag territory?

[jamtomorrow]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The government is finished now i think.Half of the public sector is sat at home on full pay,bennies worse than ever.BOE will be out of printing room in a few months and due to where government has directed liquidity GDP wont reach escape velocity.Its inflation with no growth here.Obvious to anyone this is the worst government in history by a long shot.Labour of course are a disaster as well,so the likely result is Boris gone and a Liz Truss PM.

That reads like a stagflation call for the UK @DurhamBorn. Is that what you're seeing?

[JimmyTheBruce]

6 hours ago, wherebee said:

i've been anticipating a BK for 5 years.....

Given the provenance of many posters on this site (myself included) one might suggest that timing crashes isn't our strong point 

[Craig]

Must admit silver is looking quite tempting right now. Where's the best place to buy coins? Assuming I'd be lumbered with duties if I used Silver 2 Go? 

[Loki]

29 minutes ago, Craig said:

Must admit silver is looking quite tempting right now. Where's the best place to buy coins? Assuming I'd be lumbered with duties if I used Silver 2 Go? 

eBay seller with perfect feedback, no VAT that way.  There's tubes of £25 going for £600, I put in a best offer of £550 but no bites yet. 

[planit]

I am waiting to buy back into PM miners, I can't see the tide turning whilst all the talk is about speeding up the tightening.

As soon as there is a sniff of loosening monetary policy due to the economy slowing down I will be paying attention.

 

BP has recovered much quicker than the oil price over the last 2 weeks. This combined with the fact most tech stocks seem to be in a bear market even though the S&P500 is still high leads me to believe there has been sector rotation over the last month.

I am still thinking there will be another pullback before moving higher but this week might well test my resolve if we continue moving higher (there needs to be a move up to suck everyone back in, too many people like me).

For one thing US and Asia seem to be a few weeks [US - 2 weeks, Asia - 4 weeks?] behind Europe and UK with regards to Omicron so their cases will not look bad for a while.