Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[geordie_lurch]

32 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

If that's all it is, we're in uncharted territory. 30% intra-day swings based on the comments of a buffoon is perhaps expected of meme stocks, but this is the national currency of a G20 member.

We can't measure systemic instability directly, we can only look for signs.

What would you rather be holding here if you were Turkish - their lira or the "unstable" Bitcoin as per my post this week or last?

30% swings in a day of a 'stable' national currency compared to a modest +117% rise in Bitcoin over the last 12 months

[DurhamBorn]

22 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Good time to re-up the Lawrence Livermore energy flow chart. This one is for the US, but France won't be much different. That thin line from petroleum to electricity gen is ripe for change.

Question is, who's going to clean up making a crap-ton of massive diesel gennies at premium prices for panicked Governments?

Cummins.I used to make them.Technician slang we called them Coolpacks because of their self cooling fans etc we build on them.

[MrXxxx]

55 minutes ago, Harley said:

Could you please clarify.  Planit put a book in a thread?  But you're replying to him so someone else did?  Who?  And which book?  And where is the library thread please?  

Sorry, rushed answer. To clarify it was a book that I thought might help @planit. For anyone else that is interested its this one:

The Equity Edge by Mark Jeavons [pub Harriman House] ISBN:978085719786

[jamtomorrow]

Missed this yesterday (and apologies if already posted). "Baisser un peu la tension" does sound absolutely lovely though. Does it come with frites?

 

[Wheeler]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Could you please clarify.  Planit put a book in a thread?  But you're replying to him so someone else did?  Who?  And which book?  And where is the library thread please?  

The library thread is in the basement too:

 

 

[Plan-b]

4 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Missed this yesterday (and apologies if already posted). "Baisser un peu la tension" does sound absolutely lovely though. Does it come with frites?

 

So if the French may have a problem when they are reasonably set up for electrical generation and we import from them, wheres our government advice or comment on the issue?

[Plan-b]

In fact the French have gone tight on us - typical                                              

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

France now deployed almost all of its reserve power generation.

 

And it's not even cold yet.

 

Get your popcorn on your calor gas burners boys, it's gonna be entertaining.

[DurhamBorn]

On energy i think Norway and the UK will do a lot more together.They will supply hydro,us wind,cable both ways.Hard to play it,but i like the Krone and Norway hence buying Norwegian assets.Telenor at the moment,but looking into others.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Sorry, rushed answer. To clarify it was a book that I thought might help @planit. For anyone else that is interested its this one:

The Equity Edge by Mark Jeavons [pub Harriman House] ISBN:978085719786

Cheers guys.  Funny, I've just been having a book clear out and have many investing books (many unread!) which may need to go.  I may keep them and a candle(*) for now though for when the internet and/or leccy goes off!  Wish I could share here somehow when done with them.  Some are even signed by the authors.  I used to like going to the investing conferences in London and would pick up a few.  Feel a bit sad and will just say feck the WEF lot and their "Young Global Leader" b-shirts, although to be fair the conferences were dying out a bit before 2020.

(*) not required, did I mention I bought a few batteries!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

On energy i think Norway and the UK will do a lot more together.They will supply hydro,us wind,cable both ways.Hard to play it,but i like the Krone and Norway hence buying Norwegian assets.Telenor at the moment,but looking into others.

But TEL Debt to Equity = 442%! 

Net Intangible Assets Kr40bn versus Equity Kr44bn

......

[Barnsey]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

On energy i think Norway and the UK will do a lot more together.They will supply hydro,us wind,cable both ways.Hard to play it,but i like the Krone and Norway hence buying Norwegian assets.Telenor at the moment,but looking into others.

Hopefully sooner than later...

[jamtomorrow]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Cummins.I used to make them.Technician slang we called them Coolpacks because of their self cooling fans etc we build on them.

I wonder if we might start seeing something similar to these dual fuel aeroderivative turbine setups, but on a larger scale suitable for grid generation: https://www.ge.com/gas-power/services/gas-turbines/upgrades/gas-to-dual-fuel-lm6000

Kerosene is obviously a no-brainer for aeroderivatives, but got me wondering whether it would have legs for large-scale turbines like the GT26. Seems like the answer is a big fat "yes":

“GE’s GT26 HE upgrade blends cutting-edge technology from GE’s industry-leading F and H class fleets and it will help us produce more power, while reducing CO2 emissions per MW,” said Juan José Marcet, General Manager, Central Dock Sud. “Thanks to this significant power increase we will fully decommission our high-fogging system, leading to substantial cost savings.  In addition, we will benefit from the HE’s dual fuel capability, allowing us to burn diesel backup fuel in winter in case of a natural gas shortage.”

Source: https://www.power-eng.com/om/plant-optimization/new-ge-gt26-he-upgrade-shows-benefits-in-uniper-uk-plant-testing/#gref

[belfastchild]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

On energy i think Norway and the UK will do a lot more together.They will supply hydro,us wind,cable both ways.Hard to play it,but i like the Krone and Norway hence buying Norwegian assets.Telenor at the moment,but looking into others.

The one big potential spanner in the works here DB is that the link was planned years ago before the massive and sudden increase in EV sales in Norway.
Norway does have more wind and hydro in the planning but it will be another year or two minimum to see how the influx of EVs affects their grid, particularly around now with low wind and low precipitation. They have already mooted timed charging to allow the current grid to cope during wind down times so whilst I agree the link will be good during excess times, its the times like now where it might be another chocolate teapot and Norway needs all its own production itself (just like the French today).

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

But TEL Debt to Equity = 442%! 

Net Intangible Assets Kr40bn versus Equity Kr44bn

......

Doesnt bother me Harley,i like companies where debt is a high part of the mix that can leverage inflation.My only worry is derivative risk,not debt risk.They will be increasing prices with inflation,but half the cost of capital base is at fixed coupons.Its one of the reasons the cycle favours such companies IMO

[DurhamBorn]

12 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

The one big potential spanner in the works here DB is that the link was planned years ago before the massive and sudden increase in EV sales in Norway.
Norway does have more wind and hydro in the planning but it will be another year or two minimum to see how the influx of EVs affects their grid, particularly around now with low wind and low precipitation. They have already mooted timed charging to allow the current grid to cope during wind down times so whilst I agree the link will be good during excess times, its the times like now where it might be another chocolate teapot and Norway needs all its own production itself (just like the French today).

True,mostly depends on rainfall/snow melt,but much better placed than most.It will get bad for everyone,being least bad will be a great position.UK should of been building much more pumped storage ourselves,but as we know our polos are clueless.

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

On energy i think Norway and the UK will do a lot more together.They will supply hydro,us wind,cable both ways.Hard to play it,but i like the Krone and Norway hence buying Norwegian assets.Telenor at the moment,but looking into others.

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

3 hours ago, Plan-b said:

So if the French may have a problem when they are reasonably set up for electrical generation and we import from them, wheres our government advice or comment on the issue?

...the answer is a few posts above yours:  *We really are governed by utter fuckwits.*

we better get cracking and all start scanning fb marketplace for calor gas burners!!!

 

bet @DurhamBorn got his in the summer for peanuts...lags/timing and all that!

 

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

...the answer is a few posts above yours:  *We really are governed by utter fuckwits.*

we better get cracking and all start scanning fb marketplace for calor gas burners!!!

 

bet @DurhamBorn got his in the summer for peanuts...lags/timing and all that!

 

Yep,garage is full of them,darent get anymore in case of exposion ,iv got the smaller 8kg ones as well and a nice camping stove that runs on it.A few batteries charged for phones etc.My gas bill is cheap though,its the electric we are getting hammered on,mainly to fund windmills and handouts to Sharon over the road on bennies,the ones with a brand new BMW.

[stoobs]

Are people stockpiling calor gas for heat or also for cooking?

I'd assumed we may have leccy blackouts but the gas supply would be fine.

So no gas fired central heating for most of us, but the hobs still working (and gas fires if you have them).

[Plan-b]

15 minutes ago, stoobs said:

Are people stockpiling calor gas for heat or also for cooking?

I'd assumed we may have leccy blackouts but the gas supply would be fine.

So no gas fired central heating for most of us, but the hobs still working (and gas fires if you have them).

I think that gas transmission would require some electrical equipment, and a lot of our electricity comes from gas turbines up to about 60% when the winds not blowing. We get gas from a variety of sources. I could imagine some of the European sources are also of Russian origin not sure on that though.   

Data from the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy shows UK production and imports in gigawatt hours in 2020 as follows:

UK - 438,520

Norway - 266,155

Qatar - 96,904

USA - 53,439

Russia - 24,635

Trinidad and Tobago - 11,190

Netherlands - 11,073

Belgium - 7,548

Nigeria - 3,688

Egypt - 2,040

France - 1,079

Algeria - 488

[stoobs]

Anyone know how to cook Christmas dinner on a gas BBQ? 

[belfastchild]

30 minutes ago, stoobs said:

Are people stockpiling calor gas for heat or also for cooking?

I'd assumed we may have leccy blackouts but the gas supply would be fine.

So no gas fired central heating for most of us, but the hobs still working (and gas fires if you have them).

The gas should be fine, the water and gas pumping stations are supposed to be critical infrastructure. Saying that if you know anyone in the recent blackouts (although usually remote places off for ages may not have mains gas) ask them what happened.

Bought a load of super sers, bottles, gas bbqs and camping gaz stoves and canisters this summer for next to nothing. Although how Im going to stick them up on FB marketplace during a power cut is anyones guess ;-)

I have that much faith in the electricity network. Saying that, I see a big profit on all but one of each ;-) Battered super ser and half full gas bottle currrently on marketplace for 100 quid, not the 25 quid I bought them for during the summer.

If you cant get some and have outdoor space, learn how to cook on a fire.

[Harley]

24 minutes ago, stoobs said:

Anyone know how to cook Christmas dinner on a gas BBQ? 

Youtube is your friend as is someone from southern USA (probably deep fried though!).  Just ordered a top up for the heating oil tank.  Price has come down 10p a litre since last week.  Maybe another thing people are happy to pay a premium for in time for Christmas.  I have Calor gas bottles, a heater, and even a shower from my Feb20 prepping days.  Then there are my logs which I'm happy to provide on a subscription basis!  Buggered on mains water though as the leccy always fails and the pumps go off in winter, or the pressure drops to nada because those in the valleys don't insulate taps, etc.  That all said, something will come along and bugger things up! 

[belfastchild]

18 minutes ago, stoobs said:

Anyone know how to cook Christmas dinner on a gas BBQ? 

Mate did a bbq spatchcock turkey on the bbq a few years ago.