Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[geordie_lurch]

Despite everything going on Gold and silver are still not even moving

[Hancock]

Just now, 23rdian said:

Fuck mate. Down too but the brokers don't help. Free trade not topping up this morning despite everything I try. I managed to buy back in at 3.90 on ISA but that's probably going to turn to shit too

Ive a load you can have for 700, will PM you my number.

Ive made a bit on VODA/CNA in the last 6 months, thats been sold so if i was to sell everything now i'd be about 5k down.

 

[Lightscribe]

7 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I left the rig when POLY etc were down 30%, now down 50% or more .... if i sell now i'll have lost 7k over the weekend!

Financial illiteracy at its finest.

Stop losses on riskier assets. I’ve learnt the hard way over the years. Russian assets have turned into crypto volatility, so I treat them as the same.

[BadAlchemy]

For anyone else holding BASF, they are down 6% this morning.

Some involvement with Nord Stream 2, plus legal issues on top, causing the drop most likely...

https://www.reuters.com/business/basf-predicts-full-year-profit-decline-economic-growth-slows-2022-02-25/

 

Also their results were released on Friday...

https://www.basf.com/global/en/media/news-releases/2022/02/p-22-138.html

Strong earnings and cashflow for 2021. Plus they will be passing on the inflation (energy, semiconductor shortages etc) via price increases in the coming months...

"Additional costs due to rising energy prices in Europe

BASF’s automotive-related businesses continued to be negatively impacted by the semiconductor shortage. In 2021 and particularly in the fourth quarter, higher raw materials prices and increased energy and logistics costs also burdened the earnings development in all segments. For BASF’s European sites, the additional costs due to further increased natural gas prices in 2021 amounted to around €1.5 billion. The fourth quarter of 2021 alone accounted for €0.8 billion of this amount.

Brudermüller announced: “We will implement further substantial price increases in the coming months to pass on the significantly higher costs and improve our margins in the downstream businesses.” The established pricing procedures in these businesses lead to a delay in passing on costs."

 

Not advice, DYOR etc

[Erewhon888]

1 minute ago, Erewhon888 said:

Browder's lies about Magnitsky have been exposed repeatedly particularly in hostile deposition taking in the U.S.

 

 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Lightscribe said:

Stop losses on riskier assets. I’ve learnt the hard way over the years.

I did but they opened lower than what i had the stop loss!

 

[geordie_lurch]

1 minute ago, Lightscribe said:

Stop losses on riskier assets. I’ve learnt the hard way over the years.

As long as they aren't with HL.co.uk and / or it's a very busy morning as like I said up thread I had 2 that should have triggered this morning

[Hancock]

Just now, geordie_lurch said:

As long as they aren't with HL.co.uk and / or it's a very busy morning as like I said up thread I had 2 that should have triggered this morning

Yes same, i got an email telling me the stop loss was cancelled.

Poly is down 59% now ... fuck!

[Harley]

9 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I honestly don't think they've thought this through. It's pretty clear they haven't really, since most of them think we can transition to green energy easily. I think every barrel Russia can export will be bought. Mostly with dollars, too, but maybe China will buy more with Yuan now. Any enforced drop in oil consumption in the west means austerity, and in short order QE/Fiscal stimmies. This is why I'm focussed on gold, because that should smell it first.

Maybe not.  Or maybe they know this will resolve but have established their case for a more rapid move in the green agenda, net zero, etc.  This and other ways they could be using this "crisis" because they surely are.  PMs are a key focus area for me too.  I've heard it mention a couple of times a mix of gold miners and physical silver may be optimum given the way they play with the gold price, etc.  I don't know (but seems reasonable).  I'll spray and pray but with some miners being defo value plays why not!

[Democorruptcy]

9 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

God that 25% divi on Poly is an evil temptress. Don't forget that bit @Hunty if you're feeling down, there has been no divi cut, no reason to cut it, and although the water is murky right now, you haven't been told you're not going to be paid it out.

It seems to lock up on IG and then when it re-opens it's a further chunk down. Now starts with a 2!

[23rdian]

2.92 now fuck. Sell orders rejected. Are these going to zero?

[Majorpain]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

Yes same, i got an email telling me the stop loss was cancelled.

Poly is down 59% now ... fuck!

Not even a dead cat bounce, she's sliding all right.  200's is on the cards which is starting to tempt me.

[Boon]

5 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Despite everything going on Gold and silver are still not even moving

Who doesn't benefit from high metals prices? It just seems that even the big rise last week meets a lot of resistance.

I would expect further falls today if there are mentions of peace talks.

Hard to know what to believe but gut feeling is that Russia might have envisioned what happened in Afghanistan would also occur but it hasn't actually gone like that and there may be a diplomatic solution.

Where was the massive amount of public support for the Afghan people when the Taliban were doing the same? And I would bet that worse atrocities to civilians were being carried out.

[Mapper]

POLY is now The Russian Play to me.

More specifically, The Nutcracker.

[Harley]

2 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Could well be, but that will cause an economic depression unless there is massive printing. 

Yes, it would need massive printing.  They'll love it!

[geordie_lurch]

Not thought of it like this until reading this tweet - the Ruble is now worth less than 1 US cent! I can't see the Russian's standing for this for more than a few weeks - worrying times for all of us though

 

[belfastchild]

9 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Not even a dead cat bounce, she's sliding all right.  200's is on the cards which is starting to tempt me.

Ajbell wont sell to me ;-) Probably just as well.

Came up at 290 something and Id an order in for 365 and they still didnt fulfill it.
So if you cant sell and cant buy....

[Green Devil]

15 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Stop losses on riskier assets. I’ve learnt the hard way over the years. Russian assets have turned into crypto volatility, so I treat them as the same.

Ive probably missed something, but a lot of you all seem to be holding russian gas oil etc companies. Was there a reason for this? Purely the dividend yield? Was this a recommendation of the thread earlier or are you just scalping the swings?

[Sidd]

Bought another 1300 poly shares at 3.63. Last tranch was at 5.63. Average now is 4.42.

 

I either lose this all or make a decent return. Most likely the former knowing its me.

[Democorruptcy]

22 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Yes today was always going to be the panic day, see how negotiations go in the coming days and weeks. Hope my 7k loss doesn't get larger.

Chill mate, it's only red figures on a screen. Have you thought about covering the red ones with black masking tape?

[HousePriceMania]

I knew @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker returning spelt doom for us all 

[Sidd]

Also i couldnt buy all the shares in one go i had to buy in 2 tranches, obviously costing me fees twice but i thought it small change considering the amount i was buying and the potential loss / gains. It wouldnt quote me all at once on HL.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, CVG said:

Yes.Also uk.investing.com

I doubt those prices are as live

[HousePriceMania]

Is anyone laddering down into Poly ?

 

[CVG]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

I doubt those prices are as live

They start moving at 8:00 in the morning, so I have no reason to doubt them