Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

28 minutes ago, Boon said:

Who doesn't benefit from high metals prices? It just seems that even the big rise last week meets a lot of resistance.

I would expect further falls today if there are mentions of peace talks.

Hard to know what to believe but gut feeling is that Russia might have envisioned what happened in Afghanistan would also occur but it hasn't actually gone like that and there may be a diplomatic solution.

Where was the massive amount of public support for the Afghan people when the Taliban were doing the same? And I would bet that worse atrocities to civilians were being carried out.

Probably one of the many news stories not currently being read but the Taliban are reported to be going house to house.  Getting back on topic, of course Vlad wants a deal.  He probably always did.  Alas, one is now harder to reach and the price has gone up.  The West is playing catch up.  Can they make the jump or will they stay on the back foot and keep doubling down?  But regardless, it will be hard to get a quick resolution.  Vlad would probably let the shiteposters believe this was their Afgan as they have better things to occupy themselves with than such Western obsessions.  It would be prudent to game an investing/trading approach should one be reached (and one if it isn't because that means we should be fearing what our own are up to).  The current talking heads who know shite about Vlad (and most everything else of worth) could be preparing one of the best opportunities for the focused minds.

[Sidd]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is anyone laddering down into Poly ?

 

I just did and if only to prove to myself I have balls of steel. 

[SpectrumFX]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is anyone laddering down into Poly ?

 

I was, but I've stopped for now.

I might buy some more, but I'll probably leave it until later in the week now.

[Harley]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is anyone laddering down into Poly ?

I will.  I've learnt to trade the dumps as a way of mitigating investing losses.  There's a military metaphor (even a Youtube clip I nearly posted) but I'm sick of that shite.

[jamtomorrow]

23 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Despite everything going on Gold and silver are still not even moving

Market front-running what might have to happen to defend the Ruble?

The $600bn war chest has taken quite the hit - only $200bn in non-sanctioned assets, physical gold and yuan - so use China as an intermediary?

I doubt they'll go full Lamont and spunk much of that into the void of the currency markets in practice, it would disappear very quickly indeed.

But how about a massive new line of credit with China, to be repaid by future O&G flows? China buys Rubles today to save the Russian economy and Putin's skin, at the cost of Russia and its energy resources becoming China's (effectively) in the longer term.

USDRUB appears to have stabilized at around 100 - *somebody* is buying

[HousePriceMania]

Funny Story,

 

I get an email 2 weeks ago from Interactive Brokers saying my limit offer to buy EVRAZ at 101 was unrealistic and I should consider adjusting it.

I've cancelled it for now.

 

EVRAZ plc

149.75 GBX

 

[DoINeedOne]

12 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is anyone laddering down into Poly ?

 

Yea why not, although trying to get a quote is harder work

[Noallegiance]

26 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Despite everything going on Gold and silver are still not even moving

For me it's fine.

There's so much going on at the moment.

Gold is doing it's job. The gradual debasement of currency is being accounted for as far as is possible under the current derivative price paradigm. The day that changes is when everyone behind the curve will be looking to buy what I'm gonna be selling. My exposure is in the miners and they're doing well. If DH is correct and GDX & J double/triple from here for gold to $2500, I'm looking forward to a post-bust steady climb in the physical price. Miners will be cash machines.

Sudden moves are trader moves.

Outside of the flight to safety spikes on news, a new floor is being established for the longer term. There's a gradual creep into the new cycle. We're ahead of the game.

I'd hate for it to go bananas too quick. I'd prefer the slower crawl in the physical price rather than racing off on an unsustainable path to have to back-fill price gaps. That behaviour is too volatile for what gold is.

Comparatively speaking, against everything else PMs are boring. For traders conditioned by the last 40 years this thread is boring. That's just fine.

Handle my cup baby!

 

[Harley]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

Funny Story,

 

I get an email 2 weeks ago from Interactive Brokers saying my limit offer to buy EVRAZ at 101 was unrealistic and I should consider adjusting it.

I've cancelled it for now.

 

EVRAZ plc

149.75 GBX

 

Have you received their two alerts too about the "crisis".  I thought them very professional.  CYA sure but still very professional.  Off to open my ISA account today.

[Castlevania]

47 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

God that 25% divi on Poly is an evil temptress. Don't forget that bit @Hunty if you're feeling down, there has been no divi cut, no reason to cut it, and although the water is murky right now, you haven't been told you're not going to be paid it out.

Results Wednesday 

[Sidd]

2 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

For me it's fine.

There's so much going on at the moment.

Gold is doing it's job. The gradual debasement of currency is being accounted for as far as is possible under the current derivative price paradigm. The day that changes is when everyone behind the curve will be looking to buy what I'm gonna be selling. My exposure is in the miners and they're doing well. If DH is correct and GDX & J double/triple from here for gold to $2500, I'm looking forward to a post-bust steady climb in the physical price. Miners will be cash machines.

Sudden moves are trader moves.

Outside of the flight to safety spikes on news, a new floor is being established for the longer term. There's a gradual creep into the new cycle. We're ahead of the game.

I'd hate for it to go bananas too quick. I'd prefer the slower crawl in the physical price rather than racing off on an unsustainable path to have to back-fill price gaps. That behaviour is too volatile for what gold is.

Comparatively speaking, against everything else PMs are boring. For traders conditioned by the last 40 years this thread is boring. That's just fine.

Handle my cup baby!

 

Do you still see a point where you cash out of the miners when the $2500 price hits and then buy back in lower post bust?

[Castlevania]

8 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

For me it's fine.

There's so much going on at the moment.

Gold is doing it's job. The gradual debasement of currency is being accounted for as far as is possible under the current derivative price paradigm. The day that changes is when everyone behind the curve will be looking to buy what I'm gonna be selling. My exposure is in the miners and they're doing well. If DH is correct and GDX & J double/triple from here for gold to $2500, I'm looking forward to a post-bust steady climb in the physical price. Miners will be cash machines.

Sudden moves are trader moves.

Outside of the flight to safety spikes on news, a new floor is being established for the longer term. There's a gradual creep into the new cycle. We're ahead of the game.

I'd hate for it to go bananas too quick. I'd prefer the slower crawl in the physical price rather than racing off on an unsustainable path to have to back-fill price gaps. That behaviour is too volatile for what gold is.

Comparatively speaking, against everything else PMs are boring. For traders conditioned by the last 40 years this thread is boring. That's just fine.

Handle my cup baby!

 

If this war persists Russia might start dumping their gold.

[HousePriceMania]

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Results Wednesday 

Only if it makes it that far 

[HousePriceMania]

17 minutes ago, Harley said:

Have you received their two alerts too about the "crisis".  I thought them very professional.  CYA sure but still very professional.  Off to open my ISA account today.

Yes, it's a good service, would recommend it.

[leonardratso]

hmm, surprised, managing to get quotes on evr and gaz also sell quotes, havent got much in either, and evr looks fooked anyway so might as well leave them be, glad i didnt bother with poly(wants a cracker), i notice MOS shot its load last week as well, up that is.

[Loki]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

God that 25% divi on Poly is an evil temptress. Don't forget that bit @Hunty if you're feeling down, there has been no divi cut, no reason to cut it, and although the water is murky right now, you haven't been told you're not going to be paid it out.

Good luck HL are playing silly buggers with the price and won't sell

Sell: 405.00p | Buy: 344.60p | 413.40p (51.78%)

FTSE 100: 1.10%

Live share price | FTSE 100 delayed by at least 15 minutes | Preferences

The selling price currently displayed is higher than the buying price. This can occur temporarily for a variety of reasons; shortly before the market opens, after the market closes or because of extraordinary price volatility during the trading day.

[Noallegiance]

16 minutes ago, Sidd said:

Do you still see a point where you cash out of the miners when the $2500 price hits and then buy back in lower post bust?

I'll play it by ear.

My position is fortunate.

Yes, I could have done with the knowledge I have now 10-20 years ago. But I'm also still young enough to take advantage of the knowledge I now have, even if I miss some profit-taking. But I'm aiming on having plenty of dry powder for potential bargain basement blood on the streets shindiggle.

I'm under little pressure compared to others at different stages of life. Me and the woman have managed things to be exactly that way. So, perhaps my position isn't fortunate. Perhaps I've played things quite well so far, overall.

Anyway...

If stock markets start to hockey stick then once my sphincter puckers I may begin taking chips off the table both in value shares and miner ETFs.

If I miss the up-leg and find myself in a bust, I may take what I can.

I'm pretty certain I'll get at least some of my profits off the table but my core position will remain. I wont sell out completely from anything.

[DurhamBorn]

This thread has become like an Opium den,but poly is your drug of choice  ,Im tempted to buy £200  though just to be in the group hug ."The Russian share"

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

5 minutes ago, Loki said:

Good luck HL are playing silly buggers with the price and won't sell

Sell: 405.00p | Buy: 344.60p | 413.40p (51.78%)

FTSE 100: 1.10%

Live share price | FTSE 100 delayed by at least 15 minutes | Preferences

The selling price currently displayed is higher than the buying price. This can occur temporarily for a variety of reasons; shortly before the market opens, after the market closes or because of extraordinary price volatility during the trading day.

I've put in a buy order for POLY at 350 with Interactive Brokers, risking £200.  I feel like a desperado up the bookies trying to win his money back.

[Noallegiance]

19 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

If this war persists Russia might start dumping their gold.

Swapping it for what?

With whom?

[ThoughtCriminal]

If the fundamentals of poly haven't changed then all of this is just noise.

 

They're still making the same product with the same demand.

[leonardratso]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

This thread has become like an Opium den,but poly is your drug of choice  ,Im tempted to buy £200  though just to be in the group hug ."The Russian share"

 

 

so we have the 'share that shall not be named' replaced then?

[moneyscam]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

This thread has become like an Opium den,but poly is your drug of choice  ,Im tempted to buy £200  though just to be in the group hug ."The Russian share"

 

 

I've just mainlined 1000 Poly into my carotid artery. Should be enough to keep me going till tomorrow.

[Loki]

Just now, moneyscam said:

I've just mainlined 1000 Poly into my carotid artery. Should be enough to keep me going till tomorrow.

I just had to settle for a Fill or Kill order...only £600 worth.  If this is the best HL can do (At £11.95 per trade) I think I need to look elsewhere.  What's the point in a broker that shuts down live trading when madmen want to be buying?