Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[WICAO]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

With the exception of DurhamBorn and a few others who seem to know what they're doing, that's exactly what it's turned into!

I just hope that the sums involved are of the order of a nice steak dinner and not sums that will materially affect a financial future (in either direction).

[belfastchild]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I finished fixing the shed roof,i ran out of felt,then cleared bushes from the back fence,building a lovely frame to plant some clematis.

So it doesnt get lost in the global conflict noise I thought Id reply to your post DB.
Was chatting with some retail managers at a couple of things over the weekend. I know its NI and you have to take into consideration covid restrictions, NI 100 quid each bribery etc but not one made their Feb targets. Not one and not by a long shot. Closest was 20% off. Most said they had a good Feb last year here, being some of the few places open but even so the drop this month has been considerable.
I asked was it volume or cash sales and they said cash sales, so even with prices going up, volume has died the death over here.
I noticed this morning that the olio app had more fresh veg (mushrooms, potatoes, peppers, etc etc) than I had ever seen before. I noticed the other night shopping in tesco that all the mushrooms had a day or two date on them instead of a week or more. We produce a lot of mushrooms over here so they are one of my indicators.

Its all anecdotal and Ive been away the two middle weeks of Feb but have noticed a difference in prices even after 2 weeks (higher I mean).
I'll add in again that we dont have any energy price cap over here, our prices have been going up in line with global prices, not a one off shock in April that will hit all of you over there.

[CVG]

6 minutes ago, WICAO said:

I'm going to stay heavily diversified, stay the course, and bank on there being enough of an economy left globally for it not too get much worse, if at all, than history.  It's been pretty bad in the past as well.

I'm planning my strategy for when I leave it all to my wife (who has no interest in this kind of thing). I started looking at the the Vanguard Lifestyle funds - say 80%. I like the fact that it was tilted to the UK (20% FTSE 350) and only 20% US, but then I was somewhat horrified to find all the Us stocks also in the 20% Developed Market (excl UK) fund. So too overweight in Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, Amazon etc for my liking. I need to find a single fund that isn't so heavily biased towards the FAANG's.

[23rdian]

2 minutes ago, WICAO said:

I just hope that the sums involved are of the order of a nice steak dinner and not sums that will materially affect a financial future (in either direction).

It's only money. Life expectancy drops to zero for us all on a long enough timeline.

[Red Debt Redemption]

6 minutes ago, Hancock said:

With the exception of DurhamBorn and a few others who seem to know what they're doing, that's exactly what it's turned into!

Everyone is gambling just some are good or very good at it and more informed than others.

 

[AWW]

Just now, Red Debt Redemption said:

Everyone is gambling just some are good or very good at it and more informed than others.

Not gambling is also a gamble.

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, WICAO said:

I just hope that the sums involved are of the order of a nice steak dinner and not sums that will materially affect a financial future (in either direction).

The trouble is WICAO, when inflation is at 10% and rising and interest rates are being deliberately kept at 0% then your financial future is non-existent anyway unless you're lucky enough to have the right investments and/or full blown government support.

What we have here is not gambling, it's one of these....

 

 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, WICAO said:

I just hope that the sums involved are of the order of a nice steak dinner and not sums that will materially affect a financial future (in either direction).

M stupidity may have cost 9 days work (if i sell now), far more than a fancy steak dinner but not enough to bankrupt me. 

Its enough to realise sleeping soundly, is far more important than making a few grand.

Jumping in when everything was imploding in 2020 worked out very well for me, as i couldn't have cared less when i was deep underwater as i knew it'd just be a short term measure ... Putin shares are a whole different ballgame as those 9 days work could still be added to. 

Live and learn.

 

[Lightscribe]

3 minutes ago, AWW said:

Not gambling is also a gamble.

David Hunter may be right. We will get that melt up if they don’t raise (and war is that perfect excuse)

However, how can anyone see a functioning economy beyond that…

[Harley]

36 minutes ago, WICAO said:

So now this thread is about gambling...

Does anybody know where there's a thread about credit deflation and the subsequent reflation...

I'll get my coat...

A fair shout.  I like a bit of liveliness for what can get a bit dull (if done right!) but I always keep a sharp eye on the allocations by asset class, per holding, instrument, counterparty, etc.  So down 1.5% this last week but a lot less (pretty much zero) year to date and that's despite a few major changes (for the coming macro) and a fair Russian allocation (HK before that).

[WICAO]

4 minutes ago, CVG said:

I'm planning my strategy for when I leave it all to my wife (who has no interest in this kind of thing). I started looking at the the Vanguard Lifestyle funds - say 80%. I like the fact that it was tilted to the UK (20% FTSE 350) and only 20% US, but then I was somewhat horrified to find all the Us stocks also in the 20% Developed Market (excl UK) fund. So too overweight in Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, Amazon etc for my liking. I need to find a single fund that isn't so heavily biased towards the FAANG's.

That's slowly starting to become something I'm thinking about as well.  Mrs WICAO is learning a bit but her heart really isn't in it so it's going to take a long time if we ever get there.

I'm hoping I can get her far enough that I can eventually write a small instruction manual that goes something like:

1. These are the accounts where all the money is.

2. Sell them all and put the funds into a at x, b at y and c at z.

3. Every month take whatever free cash is in these accounts.

4. Enjoy the rest of your life.

[Harley]

9 minutes ago, CVG said:

I'm planning my strategy for when I leave it all to my wife (who has no interest in this kind of thing). I started looking at the the Vanguard Lifestyle funds - say 80%. I like the fact that it was tilted to the UK (20% FTSE 350) and only 20% US, but then I was somewhat horrified to find all the Us stocks also in the 20% Developed Market (excl UK) fund. So too overweight in Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, Amazon etc for my liking. I need to find a single fund that isn't so heavily biased towards the FAANG's.

Yep, that's the issue with many broad trusts, funds and ETFs.  I find I have to go down a level from worldwide to regional (sometimes country) to better control the allocations. 

[DurhamBorn]

Dont worry about antibiotics,iv got a huge stash of the best ones in the world (Fortum) enough for you all, i used to make it.Funny enough the active in it is worth more than gold weight for weight 

Iv also got a stash of Durex Joy Jelly Lube,i used to make that as well,the stash went down regular years ago,but not so much now 

[WICAO]

10 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

It's only money. Life expectancy drops to zero for us all on a long enough timeline.

Agreed.  If you want to see that in action a calculator I use when I start to think bad financial things http://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/ 

[Harley]

4 minutes ago, WICAO said:

That's slowly starting to become something I'm thinking about as well.  Mrs WICAO is learning a bit but her heart really isn't in it so it's going to take a long time if we ever get there.

I'm hoping I can get her far enough that I can eventually write a small instruction manual that goes something like:

1. These are the accounts where all the money is.

2. Sell them all and put the funds into a at x, b at y and c at z.

3. Every month take whatever free cash is in these accounts.

4. Enjoy the rest of your life.

Plus if I/we have a stroke, onset dementia, etc.  There will come a time I'll need to decomplex.  I'll just roll my shares into my (few) ETFs and trusts (that's the change I referred to above as I've started setting out the pipework).  Maybe I'll even be able to buy an annuity before then!

[Hancock]

6 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Everyone is gambling just some are good or very good at it and more informed than others.

The person buying shares in Russia at a time of war for a quick win is gambling; but if he chose to put the same sum in a FTSE tracker for a decade, its less akin to gambling. 

[HousePriceMania]

11 minutes ago, Hancock said:

M stupidity may have cost 9 days work (if i sell now), far more than a fancy steak dinner but not enough to bankrupt me. 

Its enough to realise sleeping soundly, is far more important than making a few grand.

Jumping in when everything was imploding in 2020 worked out very well for me, as i couldn't have cared less when i was deep underwater as i knew it'd just be a short term measure ... Putin shares are a whole different ballgame as those 9 days work could still be added to. 

Live and learn.

 

It's not just Putin though, any country could decide tomorrow to do the same. 

There is no scenario where anyone's investments are 100% secure. You're own government can take anything it likes off you, directly or by underhand means. 

We should all be invested in London property of course, though if the man with the poo in the tin nukes it then I dont think you'll get a bail out this time.

People bought wedding rings in the past so they'd have something of value that was small, portable and relatively safe that they could sell/pawn if TSHTF, a sound idea IMHO.

Anyway·...just popping out to buy something.....

[Green Devil]

24 minutes ago, Hancock said:

With the exception of DurhamBorn and a few others who seem to know what they're doing, that's exactly what it's turned into!

Seems like most of the gambling bets are losing big right now!

[WICAO]

14 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

The trouble is WICAO, when inflation is at 10% and rising and interest rates are being deliberately kept at 0% then your financial future is non-existent anyway unless you're lucky enough to have the right investments and/or full blown government support.

What we have here is not gambling, it's one of these....

 

 

I'm banking on my financial future being just fine even in the current situation.  Sure it's bad but we've had plenty of bad in the past.  For me the only question I have to answer is will the sequence of returns that are about to be dealt in the next 40 years be significantly worse than any in history.  If the answer is no then all is good.

[Green Devil]

2 minutes ago, WICAO said:

I'm banking on my financial future being just fine even in the current situation.  Sure it's bad but we've had plenty of bad in the past.  For me the only question I have to answer is will the sequence of returns that are about to be dealt in the next 40 years be significantly worse than any in history.  If the answer is no then all is good.

Theres a sutle difference though.

If you already have a million, a 10% haircut still leaves you nice big cash pot of 900K.

If you have 5k, then it doesnt really make much difference if you lose 500.

Its all relative to when you are on the graph... For most a 500 punt is worth the gamble.

[Kilham]

The difference between gambling and investing is simply information, the current situation makes it difficult to extract from all the noise.

[WICAO]

12 minutes ago, Harley said:

Plus if I/we have a stroke, onset dementia, etc.  There will come a time I'll need to decomplex.  I'll just roll my shares into my (few) ETFs and trusts (that's the change I referred to above as I've started setting out the pipework).  Maybe I'll even be able to buy an annuity before then!

Have you written that down so you or somebody acting on your behalf knows what to do?

Recently I've been starting to think a little about this.  I need to think a lot more and do something about it though.

[Democorruptcy]

The number of posts here are correlated to big news in the markets. The West weaponising the financial markets due to the first war in Europe for years is quite big to be fair. One way to cut the number of posts is to put on 'ignore' those people classed as "gamblers".

[HousePriceMania]

12 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Seems like most of the gambling bets are losing big right now!

I'm risk averse and dont like to gamble but I feel my hand has been forced by Sunak and the central bankers, it's maybe what they want, but right now it looks like the only play in town to me to get into commodities, real stuff that people need.

I shorted the shares below though, for a bit of fun/leaning experience and I'd say that was a gamble, but I like to think it's an educated guess that housing bubble has peaked after IRs starting rising, Term Funding was cut, Stamp Duty holiday gone and the UKPropertyLion showing listing volumes having collapsed, that alone should take down RM and Savills.

The property shorts have covered my POLY losses that I held and will continue to hold, fully expecting them to go to 0.

The APPLE short was just because the NASDAW shares look bat shit crazy and a lot of them started falling, that and people I know actively saying how mental the price of an i-phone is.

You cant win them all so you need to be as diverse as you can but there's no point diversifying into sectors that look like an insane bubble, that in itself is a gamble.  
 

How many people get caught out investing in some large fund only to find out the fund's a bit of a scam and they lock out the investors.

Then look at P2P, that was a gamble too.

Housing, that's the only one way bet.....

[HousePriceMania]

Sensible share buying advice here