Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Yup 

 

But I don't think we will recover. The problem is that whereas once we were governed by pragmatism, the thing that propelled us to governing over a third of the earth's service, we're now governed by ideology. 

 

Energy policy, ideology. Criminal justice, ideology. NHS, ideology. Foreign policy, ideology. The list goes on.

 

The West doesnt have a God given right to rule, we got to where we are on the back of our ancestors who were pragmatists. They'd be building nuclear power stations and opening coal mines like there's no tomorrow.

 

Our governing class are STILL talking about platitudes of "Green revolution, Green jobs etc". Even after seeing where it's got Germany they persist. It's a death cult.

 

 

We're governed by ideology because the problems are too big for little them to fix.  Such ideology is where you go when all else fails.  It's a symptom, a canary, a dead one.

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Police, prisons, paramedics etc, all suffer from the same problem: not getting the right people anymore. Is it pay? Is it just the quality of the pool they're drawn from has diminished?

You can get away with this bullshit for so long, then one day everything just breaks.

It’s all down to the 40 year disinflation cycle which will never be repeated again.

It’s wealth flowing upwards in assets, pulling up the ladder and kicking the legs of any support at the bottom for anything to sustain it. 

Trillions in QE money printing and resulting zero interest rates. People retiring at 50 on golden index linked final salary pensions. Bubble P/E ratio tech/FAANGs. Retirees owning multiple houses. UK Ltd turning a blind eye to  property being used as dodgey money laundering playground for foreign investment.

RTB being used to produce council house millionaires. Lucrative benefits that outweigh work paid from having the first child until 50-odd.

Unfettered immigration of cheap labour to cover up the fact that no one works anymore, ever cheaper outsourcing of manufacturing to ensure the same. 

Foreign influences with stakes steering direction from education to politics, filtering down to public services that take orders from above. Puppets and narratives put in place to gaslight society into line using education and media as a weapon.

Blowing up bureaucracy and non-jobs making a public sector black hole which then means cuts from elsewhere that actually matter and are vital for a functioning society.

How does it end? Look at Oxford street, hardly any different from Croydon now. This is the end result of the cycle and we haven’t even entered the ‘hard times’ yet. This is the result of the 40 year rape and pillage of what grandparents fought and died for.

https://www.ft.com/content/534dc8ab-d8f3-4f6d-bfca-e817c03655f9
 

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F534dc8ab-d8f3-4f6d-bfca-e817c03655f9

This is all because if a 40 year disinflation cycle and ever more hands grabbing all the cookies they could from the jar. That’s why boom and bust cycles exist as greed is human nature.

Only this time money masters knew how it would end so made sure the dead horse could be flogged until the end game plan was put in place accordingly.

[AlfredTheLittle]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Police, prisons, paramedics etc, all suffer from the same problem: not getting the right people anymore. Is it pay? Is it just the quality of the pool they're drawn from has diminished?

 

Anyone see the RAF bollocks this week? Going to pause recruitment of heterosexual white men until ethnics, gays and women catch up.

 

Who are the competent people that fly the planes and keep them up there? Straight white men.

 

They even sent a memo asking for the pilot that went to the Top Gun premiere not to be a straight white male.

 

You can get away with this bullshit for so long, then one day everything just breaks.

 

My boss in the prison service once made three women form a cell extraction team when a con had made weapons and threatened to kill first officer through the door. Took me off the shield, my usual role as I'm a big lump, and said "These fuckers get paid the same as him. They can do it".

 

Two started crying. They went in and he threw them out the cell, one by one, they literally went skidding across the floor of the wing like a cartoon. Point was made, so then we went in and put him through the wall.

 

Don't ever forget that this country isnt what you think it is. The whole facade can come down at any time.

 

Off topic? Maybe, but I'd argue it applies across the board. This is a tired, creaking country and the rot runs deep. Most of us are on the Right and patriotic so it's easy to overlook things.

 

I maybe didn't frame my point that well as it pisses me off just thinking about what's been done to this country.

 

As was just said by (I think) JMD, who is confident of having all of their eggs in the UK basket? My confidence in the UK making it out the other side of this turning point (as history will judge it) diminishes by the day.

 

I lean more and more to what DB said about having exposure to foreign earning stocks. 

It's because they're unsackable (at least on the basis of competence). If you don't sack the lazy and useless it just drags the whole organisation down because everyone sees it and thinks why bother. I think that's the problem throughout the public sector, and it also leads to some seriously incompetent people being promoted to high positions, to then make more bad decisions.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Jay said:

I hope you are exaggerating..80% ..but probably not..you talk of collapse….would collapse mean a within Britain or would you classify the break up of Britain as a collapse..I think cable was 1.7 during the last referendum.. would make sense for the scots to try again..the possibility of independent Scotland seem to be increasing imo especially as I think we get to deflation..even the welsh go there own..that for me would a collapse and not for others…that would mean England gets the bulk of the problems economically.. would have no choice but to cut benefits, pensions etc..be lucky..

No,80%+ get bennies or public sector workers in my home town.

[Starsend]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Police, prisons, paramedics etc, all suffer from the same problem: not getting the right people anymore. Is it pay? Is it just the quality of the pool they're drawn from has diminished?

 

Anyone see the RAF bollocks this week? Going to pause recruitment of heterosexual white men until ethnics, gays and women catch up.

 

Who are the competent people that fly the planes and keep them up there? Straight white men.

 

They even sent a memo asking for the pilot that went to the Top Gun premiere not to be a straight white male.

 

You can get away with this bullshit for so long, then one day everything just breaks.

 

My boss in the prison service once made three women form a cell extraction team when a con had made weapons and threatened to kill first officer through the door. Took me off the shield, my usual role as I'm a big lump, and said "These fuckers get paid the same as him. They can do it".

 

Two started crying. They went in and he threw them out the cell, one by one, they literally went skidding across the floor of the wing like a cartoon. Point was made, so then we went in and put him through the wall.

 

Don't ever forget that this country isnt what you think it is. The whole facade can come down at any time.

 

Off topic? Maybe, but I'd argue it applies across the board. This is a tired, creaking country and the rot runs deep. Most of us are on the Right and patriotic so it's easy to overlook things.

 

I maybe didn't frame my point that well as it pisses me off just thinking about what's been done to this country.

 

As was just said by (I think) JMD, who is confident of having all of their eggs in the UK basket? My confidence in the UK making it out the other side of this turning point (as history will judge it) diminishes by the day.

 

I lean more and more to what DB said about having exposure to foreign earning stocks. 

All the Russians will have to do is hit us during the school run and we'll be fucked.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

13 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

It’s all down to the 40 year disinflation cycle which will never be repeated again.

It’s wealth flowing upwards in assets, pulling up the ladder and kicking the legs of any support at the bottom for anything to sustain it. 

Trillions in QE money printing and resulting zero interest rates. People retiring at 50 on golden index linked final salary pensions. Bubble P/E ratio tech/FAANGs. Retirees owning multiple houses. UK Ltd turning a blind eye to  property being used as dodgey money laundering playground for foreign investment.

RTB being used to produce council house millionaires. Lucrative benefits that outweigh work paid from having the first child until 50-odd.

Unfettered immigration of cheap labour to cover up the fact that no one works anymore, ever cheaper outsourcing of manufacturing to ensure the same. 

Foreign influences with stakes steering direction from education to politics, filtering down to public services that take orders from above. Puppets and narratives put in place to gaslight society into line using education and media as a weapon.

Blowing up bureaucracy and non-jobs making a public sector black hole which then means cuts from elsewhere that actually matter and are vital for a functioning society.

How does it end? Look at Oxford street, hardly any different from Croydon now. This is the end result of the cycle and we haven’t even entered the ‘hard times’ yet. This is the result of the 40 year rape and pillage of what grandparents fought and died for.

https://www.ft.com/content/534dc8ab-d8f3-4f6d-bfca-e817c03655f9
 

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F534dc8ab-d8f3-4f6d-bfca-e817c03655f9

This is all because if a 40 year disinflation cycle and ever more hands grabbing all the cookies they could from the jar. That’s why boom and bust cycles exist as greed is human nature.

Only this time money masters knew how it would end so made sure the dead horse could be flogged until the end game plan was put in place accordingly.

I haven't been to Oxford Street for a long time. Didn't realise the "candy" shops had expanded so much. Or that they operated like department stores with concessions. Surprised that they make enough money to continue even without paying rates. Utility firms will have to put pay as you go meters into these shops. Only way they will get paid this winter.

The solution is simple. Lower rates. Much lower.

I have driven through Croydon recently. Oxford Street can be revived. Sweet shops aren't in the interests of the landlords or the council or the wider City. Croydon is a dumping ground and very unlikely to improve. The new inner cities are some of the peripheral towns/suburbs.

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I haven't been to Oxford Street for a long time. Didn't realise the "candy" shops had expanded so much.

Even money launderers dont think London property is the way to go!!!

[Harley]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its all down to state pensions in payment and bennies.Too much tax being paid by companies and workers so the reward to the workers and the owners of capital too low.The Scottish share a prime example.The government pushed their margin so low they couldnt invest.I worked out the difference to have a much stronger industry was around £12 a month on a bill,so then £120 instead of £108.Instead government chose to hammer them and give half the country not producing anything that saving.Now of course that £12 is £300 due to those actions.All consumption ends up destructive,the key is how much investment alongside it.We tilted for 20 years to where over 50% of the population was simply consuming,not producing.Imagine if 1/3 of the welfare budger and 1/3 of the in payment state pensions had gone into energy,water etc,£50 billion a year,or £1 trillion over the 20 years.Instead it was consumed and the only place the money used was saved was into houses and foreign countries where we bought the goods.

This is a problem in depth.  How many of those on bennies are employable?  Parents, schooling, socialisation, and all the rest. 

One of the first things they did in basic training was check people knew how to shower and eat properly.  And the muscle growth, etc they got from the proper nutrition (and the "exercise") was noticeable.  They could not have progressed on their existing diets.  Not all, it was complete mix and most had worked hard just to get there, but that was the beauty (one good thing about conscription) as it challenged and grew your mind too.  We are where we are after decades which has entrenched systematic end to end failure.

But I've also met some top people, all working of course.  Everyone works around here.  Maybe this bennie stuff is a cliche but the numbers are what they are and I talk to some la la polos and see they are the problem.  They like their client state and their position in it.  I've seen unlikely people achieve great things so worst of all its just a total waste far beyond money.

We've recently talked a lot about all this stuff but as I've always said, "it's the political economy stupid"!  And the political economy is a failure.

[Lightscribe]

1 minute ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I haven't been to Oxford Street for a long time. Didn't realise the "candy" shops had expanded so much. Or that they operated like department stores with concessions. Surprised that they make enough money to continue even without paying rates. Utility firms will have to put pay as you go meters into these shops. Only way they will get paid this winter.

The solution is simple. Lower rates. Much lower.

I have driven through Croydon recently. Oxford Street can be revived. Sweet shops aren't in the interests of the landlords or the council or the wider City. Croydon is a dumping ground and very unlikely to improve. The new inner cities are some of the peripheral towns/suburbs.

Did you read the article? Oxford street isn’t owned by the crown estate, it’s owned by the Middle East and Asian ‘investors’.

The sweet shops don’t have to make a profit as they are used as a front through a myriad of shell companies for criminality and money laundering.

Look at the end, Westminster council said that without them, they would just have empty shops instead.

The family silver of this country has long been sold and melted down a long time ago.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Pound taking a battering today. I wonder how far it can fall over the coming months?

That sounds like me trip wire.  I may have mentioned some ominous looking charts!  I'll take a look ta and take "appropriate action"!

PS:  Focussing on the weekly and monthly charts, completed a retrace from breaking major resistance.  Some onimous looking HA candles on the longer term charts.  Up 2.23% this week alone.  Serious money made there.  Weekly moving out of oversold and the monthly getting more overbought.  Cup and handle?  If "so", she's could blow.  See my earlier chart.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

Its all down to state pensions in payment and bennies.Too much tax being paid by companies and workers so the reward to the workers and the owners of capital too low.The Scottish share a prime example.The government pushed their margin so low they couldnt invest.I worked out the difference to have a much stronger industry was around £12 a month on a bill,so then £120 instead of £108.Instead government chose to hammer them and give half the country not producing anything that saving.Now of course that £12 is £300 due to those actions.All consumption ends up destructive,the key is how much investment alongside it.We tilted for 20 years to where over 50% of the population was simply consuming,not producing.Imagine if 1/3 of the welfare budger and 1/3 of the in payment state pensions had gone into energy,water etc,£50 billion a year,or £1 trillion over the 20 years.Instead it was consumed and the only place the money used was saved was into houses and foreign countries where we bought the goods.

I think what stuns me is is that as a scoiety we are spending more on someone who's retired in pension costs from their former job than we are paying the peopel doing the job.

Paramedic starting salary currently £27,000 plus unsocial.It wouldn't surprise me to find that some retired Band 5 Nurses and Paramedics are taking near that home in final salary pension form the older schemes.

But on top of that the new new paramedics are paying £50,000 to get their degree,plus try and buy a hosue on 10 times salary.

As a society,we have really screwed the incentives up.No wonder people don't want to work when with a couple of kids you're better off not working in most average paid jobs.

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Police, prisons, paramedics etc, all suffer from the same problem: not getting the right people anymore. Is it pay? Is it just the quality of the pool they're drawn from has diminished?

 

You can get away with this bullshit for so long, then one day everything just breaks.

 

My boss in the prison service once made three women form a cell extraction team when a con had made weapons and threatened to kill first officer through the door. Took me off the shield, my usual role as I'm a big lump, and said "These fuckers get paid the same as him. They can do it".

 

Two started crying. They went in and he threw them out the cell, one by one, they literally went skidding across the floor of the wing like a cartoon. Point was made, so then we went in and put him through the wall.

 

Don't ever forget that this country isnt what you think it is. The whole facade can come down at any time.

 

Off topic? Maybe, but I'd argue it applies across the board. This is a tired, creaking country and the rot runs deep. Most of us are on the Right and patriotic so it's easy to overlook things.

 

I maybe didn't frame my point that well as it pisses me off just thinking about what's been done to this country.

 

As was just said by (I think) JMD, who is confident of having all of their eggs in the UK basket? My confidence in the UK making it out the other side of this turning point (as history will judge it) diminishes by the day.

 

I lean more and more to what DB said about having exposure to foreign earning stocks. 

I don't think it's off topic at all.

The corollary of your various points about the decay in management of the personell side of things is that it's refelcted in the decay of the physical infrastructure.

@DurhamBorn has made this point before about the creaking sewage system,others like @Bobthebuilder @Transistor Man have pointed out the problems in the provision of power to homes and businesses both gas/leccy.

The rot is set in at the top of the pyramid and is speedily getting to the base with us as a society having noone/nothing to reverse it.

This is what Schumpeter referred to as creative destruction in capitalsim.Zombie businesses need cleaning out .Adapting that to our scoiety,Zombie political classes/institutions need to destroy themselves before we as a society can begin to rebuild them from scratch.

As DB has often said,the macro leads the politics.

We are here because we've had easy times living off the fat of the land thanks to China/Russia/Cheap oil & gas.The CRCog are now wanting their payback.

Edit to add:Rough storage facility-another DB point.Shut in 2017 because the govt didn't want to pay for it.£44bn on Track n trace later and British gas now getting £1.7 bn grant to refurbsih it

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/centrica-gets-licence-to-reopen-giant-rough-gas-storage-facility-qgn7gqs00

 

[Tingles]

Blimey!  All a bit doomy down here this morning.

Chin up, good people!

“The doom of a nation can be averted only by a storm of flowing passion, but only those who are passionate themselves can arouse passion in others.” ~ Adolf Hitler

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Jay said:

I hope you are exaggerating..80% ..but probably not..you talk of collapse….would collapse mean a within Britain or would you classify the break up of Britain as a collapse..I think cable was 1.7 during the last referendum.. would make sense for the scots to try again..the possibility of independent Scotland seem to be increasing imo especially as I think we get to deflation..even the welsh go there own..that for me would a collapse and not for others…that would mean England gets the bulk of the problems economically.. would have no choice but to cut benefits, pensions etc..be lucky..

I don't fully know what collapse looks like but to me it starts with them taking all my money and stuff.  First you have theft by stealth (tick) and then they just take it.  They'll burn the house down before they let the house burn down!

[Starsend]

13 minutes ago, Harley said:

This is a problem in depth.  How many of those on bennies are employable?  Parents, schooling, socialisation, and all the rest. 

One of the first things they did in basic training was check people knew how to shower and eat properly.  And the muscle growth, etc they got from the proper nutrition (and the "exercise") was noticeable.  They could not have progressed on their existing diets.  Not all, it was complete mix and most had worked hard just to get there, but that was the beauty (one good thing about conscription) as it challenged and grew your mind too.  We are where we are after decades which has entrenched systematic end to end failure.

But I've also met some top people, all working of course.  Everyone works around here.  Maybe this bennie stuff is a cliche but the numbers are what they are and I talk to some la la polos and see they are the problem.  They like their client state and their position in it.  I've seen unlikely people achieve great things so worst of all its just a total waste far beyond money.

We've recently talked a lot about all this stuff but as I've always said, "it's the political economy stupid"!  An the political economy is a failure.

There's always been a small part of the population who are so useless it's cheaper and easier to just pay them to stay at home - but it used to be a very small part.

A lot of the population are pretty thick, these people did all the unskilled work, making sandwiches in a canteen, working in a food factory etc. All of these workplaces providing a lot of jobs for thickies have been overrun by Eastern Europeans who were happy to be treated like shit for minimum wage because it was a fortune to them. The bosses / politicians of course loved it.

Where did all the displaced British people end up - on bennies. I put 100% of the blame on politicians.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

They could have ended the Covid nonsense swiftly if they wanted and we are now seeing the same thing with this climate change bullshit.

We are governed by psychopaths. 

Going to be psoting on this today in the sceptics thread but makes your point about how abysmally run our govt is.Mrs P is a solid corporate Tory type.I jsut can't bring myself to vote for them.Their incompetence and corruption is something to behold.(Won't be voting for the knee takers either mind)

Our gubbermint went into lockdown depsite numerous respected Dr's/Profs of Medicine and Epedemiology warning ti was a bad idea/would be counter productive.

So our politcal elite instead take their lead from a Prof of Physics,with a knackered computer model and here's the result.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/18/lockdown-effects-feared-killing-people-covid/

Lockdown effects feared to be killing more people than Covid

Unexplained excess deaths outstrip those from virus as medics call figures ‘terrifying’

BySarah Knapton, SCIENCE EDITOR18 August 2022 • 9:30pm

The effects of lockdown may now be killing more people than are dying of Covid, official statistics suggest.

Figures for excess deaths from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that around 1,000 more people than usual are currently dying each week from conditions other than the virus.

The Telegraph understands that the Department of Health has ordered an investigation into the figures amid concern that the deaths are linked to delays to and deferment of treatment for conditions such as cancer, diabetes and heart disease.

Over the past two months, the number of excess deaths not from Covid dwarfs the number linked to the virus. It comes amid renewed calls for Covid measures such as compulsory face masks in the winter.

But the figures suggest the country is facing a new silent health crisis linked to the pandemic response rather than to the virus itself.

The British Heart Foundation said it was “deeply concerned” by the findings, while the Stroke Association said it had been anticipating a rise in deaths for a while.

Dr Charles Levinson, the chief executive of Doctorcall, a private GP service, said his company was seeing “far too many” cases of undetected cancers and cardiac problems, as well as “disturbing” numbers of mental health conditions.

“Hundreds and hundreds of people dying every week – what is going on?” he said. “Delays in seeking and receiving healthcare are no doubt the driving force, in my view.

“Daily Covid statistics demanded the nation’s attention, yet these terrifying figures barely get a look in. A full and urgent government investigation is required immediately.”

Figures released by the ONS on Tuesday showed that excess deaths are currently 14.4 per cent higher than the five-year average, equating to 1,350 more deaths than usual in the week ending Aug 5.

Many appointments and treatments were cancelled as the NHS battled the pandemic throughout 2020 and last year, leading to a huge backlog that the health service is still struggling to bring down.

This week, an internal memo from the Royal Albert Edward Infirmary in Wigan, leaked to the Health Service Journal, warned it was becoming “increasingly common” for patients to die in A&E as they waited for treatment.

 

[Harley]

3 hours ago, marceau said:

More likely we won't recover from it at all. People aren't robots. They're not interchangable, reprogrammable or unemotional. For some reason the govt seems to think they are and just a few changes to a policy or process can get things back on track. They're very, very wrong.

Imo this is the real killer we face further down the line. A govt in trouble, falling back to pull on old forgotten levers, and finding they no longer work. You can't make a large UK city do the things it could do during the 1970s, let alone WW2, the people there are different now. It'll be the same with reshoring, infrastructure renewal etc. For all our millions in population growth there just isn't enough human clay.

This a beautiful study of systems theory.  How relationships are not linear all the way.  The J curve is a simplistic one dimensional example.  Things may or may not work a certain way within certain bounds.  Go outside of those and it's a new world.  Ask a chemist, engineer, or physicist!

[Harley]

We rightly moan about polos but just to stress, our ever present civil service has been working to the mantra of "managed decline" for decades.

[Starsend]

7 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

This week, an internal memo from the Royal Albert Edward Infirmary in Wigan, leaked to the Health Service Journal, warned it was becoming “increasingly common” for patients to die in A&E as they waited for treatment.

 

We are fast becoming a third world shithole. Shocking.

[feed]

Increased productivity would have increased deflation.  

The actions taken post GFC make sense if the fear of a deflationary collapse (real or imaginary) shaped everything.  

I suspect very few in the political class understood what is was they were doing or why they were doing it and now mostly fail to grasp the transition to inflation.  But I keep coming back to the decline in velocity.

GDP maybe a fantasy, but money supply and velocity aren’t.  And i don't think they really had all that much choice.  

But how do we get out of that trap, when the people that implemented it, no longer understand why they did it.    
 

 

 

 

[BWW]

17 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I got my Polish Passport the other Monday but the only sensible Country in Europe is Hungary.

I've not lost hope on the UK, hopefully we will see some Bulldog spirit once people have empty stomachs and are freezing.

I bet many more people know about the WEF than they did 18 months ago.

houses are very cheap in rural hungary. do you get a passport there witha sensible sized investment in sharez or a business without getting reamed on taxes?

purebloods allwed?

[Sasquatch]

1 hour ago, marceau said:

More likely we won't recover from it at all. People aren't robots. They're not interchangable, reprogrammable or unemotional. For some reason the govt seems to think they are and just a few changes to a policy or process can get things back on track. They're very, very wrong.

Imo this is the real killer we face further down the line. A govt in trouble, falling back to pull on old forgotten levers, and finding they no longer work. You can't make a large UK city do the things it could do during the 1970s, let alone WW2, the people there are different now. It'll be the same with reshoring, infrastructure renewal etc. For all our millions in population growth there just isn't enough human clay.

Agree totally.

Was speaking to my mum yesterday evening. She's nearly 80 now and remembers the post WW2 war rationing. She reckons that people will get used to losing all of the niceties in life and will have to put on extra jumper to keep warm etc. 

She might be right but people will be forced to do this against their will and won't be happy about it. They will look for someone to blame. That can only be the government and any future government promising the fix the problem will also fail. Rinse and repeat until we are in V for Vendetta territory.

I'm genuinely concerned with the direction of travel.

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, Sasquatch said:

Agree totally.

Was speaking to my mum yesterday evening. She's nearly 80 now and remembers the post WW2 war rationing. She reckons that people will get used to losing all of the niceties in life and will have to put on extra jumper to keep warm etc. 

She might be right but people will be forced to do this against their will and won't be happy about it. They will look for someone to blame. That can only be the government and any future government promising the fix the problem will also fail. Rinse and repeat until we are in V for Vendetta territory.

I'm genuinely concerned with the direction of travel.

Working people had never in the main experienced car ownership or the delights of going somewhere abroad prior to WW2 and even the 1950s so the simple folk won't be happy.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, feed said:

Clock is ticking. 

Berlin should negotiate gas with Russia to secure supply - official

https://breakingthenews.net/Article/Berlin-should-negotiate-gas-with-Russia-to-secure-supply-official/58469233

Bundestag Chairman of the Committee on Climate Protection and Energy Klaus Ernst (pictured) underscored on Friday that it is "wise" for Germany to negotiate with Russia to secure the country's gas supply which would effectively lower the prices.

"Leading politicians in the ruling parties also join my position," stressed Ernst on his Twitter account, adding that such a shift toward Berlin-Moscow dialogue would also enable the nation to avoid the effects of its own sanctions against Russia.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz earlier said that the federal government plans to temporarily lower the sales tax on gas to 7% for its consumers, while the country prepares to connect liquefied natural gas (LNG) floating terminals in Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbuettel to the gas network.

Looks like the EU's prinicpled support for the Ukraine is wavering in the face of Germans having to take cold showers this winter.

Dirty deal inbound.Liz Truss to call back the Brits she encouraged to go to the Ukraine because it's not an act of terror if she agress with you etc etc.

Zelensky better check his stash of lube.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/17/ukraine-has-three-months-prevent-winter-betrayal/

But it is in Europe that winter will have the greatest strategic effect on the war, and Ukraine is more likely to be the loser. As European media increasingly grow bored of a freezing landscape without much fighting to report, the spotlight will be more and more on hardship at home, with the economic crisis intensified by Putin’s conflict biting ever deeper.

Russia reduced gas supplies to Europe by 60% in June. Countries are weighing how to minimise economic damage to their already crippled economies as winter approaches, including by significantly reducing gas consumption among domestic consumers for which one of the few realistic options is an even steeper price hike. The widespread discontent among voters that follows will focus politicians’ minds and force them to reconsider their already wavering commitment to Ukraine and especially the strict sanctions against Russia which have proven not to have the hoped-for effect on restraining Putin’s aggression.

Putin knows how to ratchet up the pressure until European countries succumb, including by ordering a total energy shut-off. With this threat hanging over their heads, he will dangle a ceasefire at the G20 summit in November, saying that peace can come if he holds onto the Donbas, Crimea and the territory he has captured along the south coast of Ukraine. He will speak of self-determination of peoples, citing plebiscites that he will ensure show the majority of the populations in these areas want to be a part of Russia. His appeal will not be aimed at Ukraine but at Europeans whose economic woes would be eased.

This message will be every bit as enticing to President Biden as it will be to his European counterparts. America too is suffering severe economic damage which Biden invariably blames on Putin’s war. His mood is demonstrated in an article last week in the New York Times. While reassuring Russia about the limitations of US military support for Kiev, he wrote: “I will not pressure the Ukrainian government to make any territorial concessions”, the first time a major national leader has raised the prospect of concessions in many months.

Leaders will be tempted to grab at Putin’s offer of peace, withholding support for Zelensky. Until now, an attritional war has been said to favour Ukraine. That's about to be seriously tested. It may have been built on a false premise in the first place: Russia has usually started wars badly in its history, but has been able to call upon its vast resources and manpower over time. And the Ukrainians are entirely reliant on foreign weapons, equipment and intelligence.

 

 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

Agree totally.

Was speaking to my mum yesterday evening. She's nearly 80 now and remembers the post WW2 war rationing. She reckons that people will get used to losing all of the niceties in life and will have to put on extra jumper to keep warm etc. 

She might be right but people will be forced to do this against their will and won't be happy about it. They will look for someone to blame. That can only be the government and any future government promising the fix the problem will also fail. Rinse and repeat until we are in V for Vendetta territory.

I'm genuinely concerned with the direction of travel.

Tbf, I think we were like this in the run up to WW2.  It's human nature to be optimistic.  "Remember" Chamberlain, the black shirts, Edward and co, and all the rest.  Maybe or maybe not we will survive the shock, if indeed there is one, but it's never easy.  We could go so many ways at such a time.  

[BurntBread]

6 minutes ago, feed said:

Increased productivity would have increased deflation.  

That sounds awfully close to the idea of burning crops during the great depression, as otherwise prices would be too low and farmers would go bankrupt. If I'm right, it's strange to see a rhyming of the history.

On the subject of whether we would ever get the "blitz" spirit back, it is worth reading Priestley's "English Journey" from 1933. Many parts of the country were full of the broken, unemployable young men who had never worked after leaving education. They were among the men who fought and won the war (although they were the cannon-fodder rather than the elite soldiers; and "won" is perhaps a bit strong when you consider later history -- but the kinetic war was definitely won).