Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[Long time lurking]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I was being facetious  hence the Stonetoss meme.

I’m sure the majority of the mainstream center of right of the world by now realises that certain ‘narratives’ are being pushed.

 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Speaking of the ESG endgame, ZH has this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/esg-dystopia-why-corporations-are-doubling-down-woke-even-they-lose-billions

which can be summarised in one quote IMO:

Which is an interesting idea. This thread has already discussed centrally directed or rationed credit and targetted lending to onshore etc. Taking this idea forward DEI may be seen as essential to reshape the economy and society for what lies ahead. The destruction of brands like Bud light, and institutional knowledge the market by replacing competent CEOs with novice woke morons like occurred at John Lewis makes total sense if competition and consumer choice will be phased out. The importance of a strong "brand" ie wokeness in the political sphere trumping actual consumer goodwill makes total sense if the consumer won't be significant to future profits. The obsession with promoting diversity is obviously intended to prepare the ground for immigration on a scale unimaginable even today, as immigration is the politicians' answer to everything. If the population doubles in under a decade via immigration then obviously half the population at that point wouldn't give a shit about legacy brands anyway.

The social media in the 2020 US election is probably a good outline of what is envisioned. As discussed on here big platforms like Twitter were privately owned and free to do anything on paper, and yet with the threat of net neutrality or anti-trust political interference they were in effect captured by the deep state. Platforms like Twitter and Facebook operated like state sanctioned monopolies, and didn't really compete IMO instead staying in their respective lanes. If you look at the way Musk has broadened the Twitter platform by adding video and long-form text features it is clear IMO that the previous incarnation was operating within a defined metaphorical "territory" (a bit like a travelling salesman) rather than seeking actual competition.

Speaking of frightening ESG endgames. A perhaps 'slightly(actually and worryingly not really !) tangential' comment...

I recently watched 'Look Who's Back', it's a German black-comedy film about the reappearance of Hitler in modern Germany. Sounds weird but It's actually funny and makes many dark insightful obervations. For example the Hitler character is asked which political party is for him the most interesting. He instantly dismisses all the right-wing parties and instead expresses admiration for the Green Party which he says has potential !!

Anyway it can be viewed here...

 

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by JMD

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

 

Remember when being left wing used to be about being anti-government, anti-big corp, anti-big pharma, anti-war?

Yeah, powerful thing the media.

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by Lightscribe

[M S E Refugee]

17 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Remember when being left wing used to be about being anti-government, anti-big corp, anti-big pharma, anti-war?

Yeah, powerful thing the media.

 

Poor graphic design lost Hitler the War, this is what he should have gone with.

 

[Loki]

21 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Poor graphic design lost Hitler the War, this is what he should have gone with.

 

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Thanks for your reply. This is the SMR molten salt podcast. I understand if you haven't the time to watch it, and do also appreciate what you mean by those 'Bill Gates types', but this company engineer guy does seem genuine (I know, they all do!!).

I think the point being pushed is that these reactors can be installed quickly, locally/'tactically' and at scale, whereas PWRs would take 10+ years. The host David Hay states he is invested in the company that the guy being interviewed is from so might be biased, however in more general terms, I can't help returning to the thought that this type of (recently reclassified) 'green energy' will be used by Western countries to quickly plug their increasing energy gap. 

The bit they miss out is the salt is highly corrosive and Reactor material has to be able to withstand that at high temperature without leaking.  Multiple nations have tried it, every one has leaked and uranium filled corrosive salt, that is very very radioactive, dripping out of your reactor is not a great problem to have.

Moltex had a good crack at fixing some of the problems from what I've seen, but the tech is not going to get proved in UK, with Canada looking very closely at it atm.

[MrXxxx]

Active retail investment...a fools game?

SOURCE ARTICLE https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/costs-are-certain-so-what-happens

SOURCE SCIENTIFIC PDF https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm

 

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12181135/Pension-funds-hit-buffers-rout-bond-markets.html

Direct transfer of savings from the private sector.Anyone in lifestyle funds within 10 years of retiring will also of been slaughtered.You really do have to question why idiot trustees just invested in gilts,it was obvious they were one of the worst things in the world to invest in.I took a CETV and moved a final salary pension when rates were below 1%,and even then bozo IFAs tried to talk me out of it etc,the classic line from most "there is no rush,you can transfer closer to retirement",that CETV will of been cut in half now and iv doubled the transfer value since.

The thing with gilts now is are they still a trap even with bigger yields?.

The theft from government in the UK is incredible.

[M S E Refugee]

44 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12181135/Pension-funds-hit-buffers-rout-bond-markets.html

Direct transfer of savings from the private sector.Anyone in lifestyle funds within 10 years of retiring will also of been slaughtered.You really do have to question why idiot trustees just invested in gilts,it was obvious they were one of the worst things in the world to invest in.I took a CETV and moved a final salary pension when rates were below 1%,and even then bozo IFAs tried to talk me out of it etc,the classic line from most "there is no rush,you can transfer closer to retirement",that CETV will of been cut in half now and iv doubled the transfer value since.

The thing with gilts now is are they still a trap even with bigger yields?.

The theft from government in the UK is incredible.

I have annual investment reports for my Royal Mail Final Salary Scheme from the early 90's and 60% of the Pension was invested in Stocks, it had so much money in it Royal Mail stopped paying to it for around 7 years for tax reasons.

After September 11th struck,  the trustees decided to move it to around 93% into Government debt then a few short years later they had to shut the Final Salary down because it had lost value and was unaffordable.

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by M S E Refugee

[Plan-b]

4 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I have annual investment reports for my Royal Mail Final Salary Scheme from the early 90's and 60% of the Pension was invested in Stocks, it had so much money in it Royal Mail stopped paying to it for around 7 years for tax reasons.

After September 11th struck,  the trustees decided to move it to around 93% into Government debt then a few short years later they had to shut the Final Salary down because it had lost value and was unaffordable.

 

Direct theft without consequences. Makes Robert Maxwell look like a saint.

[Axeman123]

54 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Direct transfer of savings from the private sector.

For balance though artificially smashing gilt yields down from historically typical 5% to 0.5% over the 2008-16 period will have been a wealth transfer in the opposite direction. In a limited sense it cancels out, unless of course you have been nearing retirement over that period and your lifestyle fund has been increasing your gilt exposure at ever richer valuations over that time.

15 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

it had so much money in it Royal Mail stopped paying to it for around 7 years for tax reasons.

shocking to think.

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

For balance though artificially smashing gilt yields down from historically typical 5% to 0.5% over the 2008-16 period will have been a wealth transfer in the opposite direction. In a limited sense it cancels out, unless of course you have been nearing retirement over that period and your lifestyle fund has been increasing your gilt exposure at ever richer valuations over that time.

shocking to think.

Yes,but they were low gilts in 08,they increased holdings hugely during the cycle.Legal and General have taken on a lot of DB pensions etc,it will be interesting to see if they remain solvent.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Loki said:

That is a powerful composite image.

Reminds me that the left were once against flags of all types, then suddenly and strangely embraced the (global/ist) Rainbow Flag of many colours (...and of dubious/non-specific meaning).

Edited June 11, 2023 by JMD

[Loki]

18 minutes ago, JMD said:

That is a powerful composite image.

Reminds me that the left were once against flags of all types, then suddenly and strangely embraced the (global/ist) Rainbow Flag of many colours (...and of dubious/non-specific meaning).

No but it's different now, it's the Good Guys™ doing it

[Chewing Grass]

We are fucked now I've looked at it, in a post FIAT bullshit world we have 8X less Au than the French and 11X less than the Germans, just a country increasingly full of useless eaters.

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gold-reserves

[Axeman123]

Interesting short (30 min) Hugh Hendry vid, among other things discussing onshoring and national champions. He actually makes a really compelling case for Qualcomm.

 

[wherebee]

Be aware that the end of the Australian tax year is approaching, and retail investors often liquidate loss positions to crystallise a loss they can offset against gains.  This can result in downward pressure on aussie stocks.  This year I suspect there are some aussie miners and oil/gas companies which will allow a paper loss over the year....

[Plan-b]

8 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

just a country increasingly full of useless eaters.

In the UK new abnormal If you become one of these 'useless eaters' you are more prized than a hardworking productive person that is of Benefit to society.

I am quietly and gradually becoming one of these by steadily withdrawing my labour and finding ways to maximise my inputs from whilst minimising my outputs to the government system.

[HousePriceMania]

On 10/06/2023 at 23:53, DurhamBorn said:

Sounds like an idiot.FTSE gains from a weak sterling.

FTSE: +0.25%.

 

Idiot it is then

[Castlevania]

47 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

FTSE: +0.25%.

 

Idiot it is then

Polymetal had a nice plunge. No idea why.

[sancho panza]

You couldn't make it up.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/12/ftse-100-markets-news-ubs-credit-suisse-takeover/

Coal power station warmed up as heatwave hits Britain

[afly]

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

You couldn't make it up.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/12/ftse-100-markets-news-ubs-credit-suisse-takeover/

Coal power station warmed up as heatwave hits Britain

I love this. Electric vehicles powered by filthy coal. 

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, afly said:

I love this. Electric vehicles powered by filthy coal. 

Hopefully this will turn around my Thungela position I'm down 43%.

I hoping that buying Coal Mining shares during the Summer will pay off this Winter.

[Plan-b]

10 minutes ago, afly said:

I love this. Electric vehicles powered by filthy coal. 

Yes the average modern Diesel with Particle Filter, Catalytic Converter, Exhaust Gas Recirculation and some on Adblue is much much cleaner gives much better mileage with no long downtime to refill cheaper to buy than any Electric Vehicle is ever likely to be.

Wonderfuel 

[sancho panza]

The deflationary wave is building

Will eb interesting to see if they plateau here or headed furhter south.I know in Leics the big builders are on go slow but unsure about the rest of the UK.

https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news/crest-nicholson-sees-h1-profits-slump-points-to-tough-times-ahead/

Crest Nicholson sees H1 profits slump – points to tough times ahead

By David Burrows 8^th June 2023 9:17 am

Crest Nicholson reports a 60% fall in pre-tax profits for the half year.

The UK housebuilder warns of a continued slowdown in the housing market as rising mortgage rates and cost of living pressures impact demand.

The company’s adjusted pre-tax profit for the six months to end of April stood at £20.9m, down from £52.5m for the same period a year earlier.