Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[belfastchild]

Just chatted with one of my neighbours, they owe 7 grand on the mortgage, got a letter yesterday, their variable rate is now 7.99%

Update on marinawatch. Small boats berths are pretty much full (6m or thereabouts). Fees are charged per metre per month. A lot of empty spaces in the larger yacht category. Might explain why some are being sold at any price recently. Yes 10 grand for a decent 26ft yacht but thats around 4 grand a year to berth.. Cant really trailer those sorts of sizes of boats, so have to be stored somewhere. Saw a few boats with things printed out and stuck to them. Those are the ones with arrears on berthing fees. Never seen that before.

[Foor]

2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

I don't want to throw this thread off subject, but last night I found out a good friend of mine that I've known since we were kids committed suicide over the weekend

Im struggling to believe its true, as he seemed one of the happiest guys I knew, The last person I would ever expect to do that which just shows how we don't know if someones struggling on the inside unless we talk more, but men mostly don't

I think life is becoming a struggle for alot people, most people want is a simple life with family and friends but it seems to get more complex and hard as we go on

 

We all need to focus more on our health especially our mental heath

 

 

 

 

 

 

How old was he bud. I'm finding mid fifties particularly hard myself. I agree life is tough my sincere condolences.

 

[DoINeedOne]

19 minutes ago, Foor said:

How old was he bud. I'm finding mid fifties particularly hard myself. I agree life is tough my sincere condolences.

 

Only 41, and when I hit 40 shit seemed weird I can see why men go through a mid-life crisis as you start wondering what could have been if you made different decisions

The problem is the past is the past it can't be changed but going forward can

I always like the quote 

Progress Not Perfection

Edited July 4, 2023 by DoINeedOne

[Harley]

47 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Morning comrades!

 

....check out the HOT asian students!

 

Nah, not for me ta, but this fine lady,....

 

[wherebee]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

Nah, not for me ta, but this fine lady,....

 

that's a bloke

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, wherebee said:

that's a bloke

twat

[Eventually Right]

1 hour ago, belfastchild said:

Just chatted with one of my neighbours, they owe 7 grand on the mortgage, got a letter yesterday, their variable rate is now 7.99%

Update on marinawatch. Small boats berths are pretty much full (6m or thereabouts). Fees are charged per metre per month. A lot of empty spaces in the larger yacht category. Might explain why some are being sold at any price recently. Yes 10 grand for a decent 26ft yacht but thats around 4 grand a year to berth.. Cant really trailer those sorts of sizes of boats, so have to be stored somewhere. Saw a few boats with things printed out and stuck to them. Those are the ones with arrears on berthing fees. Never seen that before.

To buy?!

[Wight Flight]

2 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

To buy?!

Yep.

Or even less.

https://www.cowesyachtagency.com/boats/?boatId=2399048

[Axeman123]

6 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Yep.

Or even less.

https://www.cowesyachtagency.com/boats/?boatId=2399048

I wonder what the list price would have been new.

Ad mentions one owner and 20 years, so 2003 vintage maybe. 20 x £4k/yr moorings, list price that must have been high five figures even back then, haulouts and maintenance etc. You could easily imagine someone having burned £200k all told.

It seems to me that it would be best to own a used boat like that for a couple of years and use the hell out of it, rather than buy a new one and only get a few weeks a year use out of it over many years.

I wouldn't know a good boat from a bad one, and I don't even know how to sail. It is still quite tempting at that price though, if it is a good one. A year or two on the Med and you wouldn't care if you had to give the boat away at the end IMO

[Wight Flight]

Just now, Axeman123 said:

I wonder what the list price would have been new.

Ad mentions one owner and 20 years, so 2003 vintage maybe. 20 x £4k/yr moorings, list price that must have been high five figures even back then, haulouts and maintenance etc. You could easily imagine someone having burned £200k all told.

It seems to me that it would be best to own a used boat like that for a couple of years and use the hell out of it, rather than buy a new one and only get a few weeks a year use out of it over many years.

I wouldn't know a good boat from a bad one, and I don't even know how to sail. It is still quite tempting at that price though, if it is a good one. A year or two on the Med and you wouldn't care if you had to give the boat away at the end IMO

You can get moorings much cheaper if you are happy to be on swinging piles or in a tidal marina.

£4k would get you Cowes Yacht Harbour which is about as swanky as you could ask for - indeed they probably wouldn't let you park the tub above in there!

[Long time lurking]

7 hours ago, Stuey said:

I think many on here will be waiting for some great reset for longer than they waited for a HPC.

I think there could well be a great reset but it wont be what most thinks it will be ,if it happens it will come from the east and south not the west

[PETR4]

1 hour ago, Foor said:

How old was he bud. I'm finding mid fifties particularly hard myself. I agree life is tough my sincere condolences.

 

If anyone needs to talk with someone, this is a good site for finding therapists local to you or online.

https://www.counselling-directory.org.uk/

The selection process is a bit like online dating! Just choose whose profile you connect with 

[Long time lurking]

2 hours ago, belfastchild said:

Just chatted with one of my neighbours, they owe 7 grand on the mortgage, got a letter yesterday, their variable rate is now 7.99%

Update on marinawatch. Small boats berths are pretty much full (6m or thereabouts). Fees are charged per metre per month. A lot of empty spaces in the larger yacht category. Might explain why some are being sold at any price recently. Yes 10 grand for a decent 26ft yacht but thats around 4 grand a year to berth.. Cant really trailer those sorts of sizes of boats, so have to be stored somewhere. Saw a few boats with things printed out and stuck to them. Those are the ones with arrears on berthing fees. Never seen that before.

4K a year for 26ft that`s crazy money where is that ?

I have been looking at fishing boats of that size i can get moorings for £600  in Cardiff bay but you do have to buy the pontoon for £2-3K which you can sell if you ever get shot of the boat 

[onlyme]

15 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

4K a year for 26ft that`s crazy money where is that ?

I have been looking at fishing boats of that size i can get moorings for £600  in Cardiff bay but you do have to buy the pontoon for £2-3K which you can sell if you ever get shot of the boat 

That seems crazily cheap.

[JMD]

22 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I've been following the newsflow from France on Twitter and the riots look really,really serious.It's worth noting that you have to go to the very bottom of the Daily Mail's news homepage to find the following headline.(It's bottom of homepage stuff at the Guardian as well,although that's less of a surprise).

'Paris protests spread to Switzerland and Belgium but streets of France are eerily quiet: Emmanuel Macron holds crisis talks to assess the situation after teen's 'execution' during traffic stop fuels five days of widespread unrest'

From CBS-a more relaistic assessment

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/france-riots-2023-protests-police-fatal-shooting-teen-nahel-nanterre/

'Paris — Protests rocked France over the weekend as unrest sparked by the fatal shooting last week of an unarmed 17-year-old boy by police in a Paris suburb continued. It was quieter Sunday night, but more than 3,300 people have been arrested, over 1,000 buildings damaged and some 700 police officers injured in rioting since the fatal encounter on June 27.

French officials said 157 more people were arrested overnight, but that was a significant drop from the more than 700 arrests reported the previous evening amid violent clashes between police and protesters across the country.  '

 

 

 

As I've said variously down here over the years,the UK police are undermanned and poorly led for the sort of dislocations that are occuring or have occurred in France.UK Cities of 300,000 with 15 coppers protecting them.

My thesis is that these riots will pass but we are heading to a more serious social idslocation down the line.Currently,the bennies tap is still flowing.I see the situation getting worse when the moeny gets tighter.

So Im interested in whether you think this set of riots was a result of social issues or whether you think economcis is starting to drive these events?I don't have any macro road mapping experience or understanding aside from what I read on here.

To what extent do you think deterioration in the macro will make things worse?

No pressure DB,but we hevan't had much discussion down here ref the French and they look lik eht first place gettign a taste of whats coming.

 

Very interesting perspective from Krainer. (I posted one of his articles only recently, but imo this one is too important to miss!)

'Warning', his world macro pivots around a Anglo-American hegenomy and personally I don't go along with all of the conspiracy connections he makes. But neither do i dismiss his opinions out-of-hand - because if he's only part correct, he provides here some important insights into what may lie ahead. 

And once again, so may examples of stories and events completely ignored by 'our' MSM.

France under attack - Alex Krainer's TrendCompass (substack.com) 

 

 

Edited July 4, 2023 by JMD

[Long time lurking]

2 minutes ago, onlyme said:

That seems crazily cheap.

Nope you can get cheaper on the Taff embankment and much dearer (Penarth )  but that's Cardiff bay yacht club ,i think there's an initial joining fee though ,my mate has a 30ft boat there he`s paying £750 ish now been there for about 8 years now

They limit the length and beam though i think it`s 10m and 5m and there are no lock fees either 

[onlyme]

4 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Nope you can get cheaper on the Taff embankment and much dearer (Penarth )  but that's Cardiff bay yacht club ,i think there's an initial joining fee though ,my mate has a 30ft boat there he`s paying £750 ish now been there for about 8 years now

They limit the length and beam though i think it`s 10m and 5m and there are no lock fees either 

Was a few hundred IIRC for mate's boat sitting in the mud near Avonmouth many years ago, no pontoon access and only floating for a few hours each day and a tricky and messy tender trip to get to it. I suppose yacht club membership fees were included as well so that may have been a factor.

[Himura]

OK so update on the credit crunch...it's here.

Friend of mine co-owns a company that does property, 4 partners in total.  The biggest holding they have is a block of 62 student flats in Nottingham.  All full and cashflow positive but..

Their lien of credit is due to be renewed in November, currently £6.2m @4%.  The bank has been in touch and offered a maximum of £5.2m @7.89.  The partners need to come up with 250k each, no additional credit has been made available by any normal lender. In short, they are scrambling, the cashflow at 7.89 is severely impacted and 2 of the partners rely on that income to service other debts and no access to that kind of capital (£250k).  In summary, they are screwed and at each others throats. 

If this is a sign of what's happening out there, the credit deflation will hit like a cat 5 hurricane.  With Gilts where they are the govt can't do shit, corporate bankruptcy will overshadow housing in the news for a while.  BTL and leveraged homeowners will be eviscerated in the background.  

Take care out there.

Edited July 4, 2023 by Himura

[Long time lurking]

1 minute ago, onlyme said:

Was a few hundred IIRC for mate's boat sitting in the mud near Avonmouth many years ago, no pontoon access and only floating for a few hours each day and a tricky and messy tender trip to get to it. I suppose yacht club membership fees were included as well so that may have been a factor.

I should have also mentioned it`s membership is sort of invitation only ,basically you have to have someone vouch for you 

From what i understand a large part of Barry dock is going to be a mariner as well apparently they have the funding to install new middle lock gates which could see prices drop even further or more berths become available 

[wherebee]

Miners running up today out of nowhere.  Healthiest day my portfolio has had in a month...

anyone know why?

[Sugarlips]

11 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Miners running up today out of nowhere.  Healthiest day my portfolio has had in a month...

anyone know why?

Independence Day?

[DurhamBorn]

32 minutes ago, Himura said:

OK so update on the credit crunch...it's here.

Friend of mine co-owns a company that does property, 4 partners in total.  The biggest holding they have is a block of 62 student flats in Nottingham.  All full and cashflow positive but..

Their lien of credit is due to be renewed in November, currently £6.2m @4%.  The bank has been in touch and offered a maximum of £5.2m @7.89.  The partners need to come up with 250k each, no additional credit has been made available by any normal lender. In short, they are scrambling, the cashflow at 7.89 is severely impacted and 2 of the partners rely on that income to service other debts and no access to that kind of capital (£250k).  In summary, they are screwed and at each others throats. 

If this is a sign of what's happening out there, the credit deflation will hit like a cat 5 hurricane.  With Gilts where they are the govt can't do shit, corporate bankruptcy will overshadow housing in the news for a while.  BTL and leveraged homeowners will be eviscerated in the background.  

Take care out there.

Im sitting watching my roadmap unfold and thinking how much companies could of saved with macro advice.Yep gilts are the tell,government and BOE are locked in a padded cell.

[ILikeCake]

On 03/07/2023 at 13:40, Long time lurking said:

Doesn't someone on here work for Ford?  Aren't they going all electric?

[Pip321]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Gilts are maybe a decent buy,but the reason i wouldnt is because there is a risk of wipe out on them,90% down in a month sort of thing.Its an outlier,but a risk,and id much rather be outside the UK in other assets.

Apologies for the question but how can Gilts devalue in the way you describe....do you mean Gilt Funds/EFTs? Or do you mean actual gilts and the way they lose 90% because they are fixed incomes and inflation may rocket or the pound may plummet (or indeed both)....so you mean the 'real' value may plummet rather than the nominal value

As I understand it I buy a Gilt for example at £94 which has a maturity value next year of £100 and will pay a coupon of £0.25, so I am guaranteed £100.25, ie I will make £6.25.

This isn't me trying to challenge but rather I am looking to move my SIPP. I am looking at individual Gilts and I may be tempted as an alternative to the shitty vanilla funds out there. Obviously then with balance using the commodities, PM, EM type investments in equities to compliment the overall picture.

 

[Castlevania]

6 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Apologies for the question but how can Gilts devalue in the way you describe....do you mean Gilt Funds/EFTs? Or do you mean actual gilts and the way they lose 90% because they are fixed incomes and inflation may rocket or the pound may plummet (or indeed both)....so you mean the 'real' value may plummet rather than the nominal value

As I understand it I buy a Gilt for example at £94 which has a maturity value next year of £100 and will pay a coupon of £0.25, so I am guaranteed £100.25, ie I will make £6.25.

This isn't me trying to challenge but rather I am looking to move my SIPP. I am looking at individual Gilts and I may be tempted as an alternative to the shitty vanilla funds out there. Obviously then with balance using the commodities, PM, EM type investments in equities to compliment the overall picture.

 

Long duration has been crushed. Take the Austria 100 year bond issued in 2020 at a coupon rate of 0.85%. It’s currently trading at 40 cents to the Euro. That’s a loss of 60% on a MTM basis.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-AT100Y/