Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[Kendo]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think the UK will be sticky due to the massive amount of people who are inflation linked on bennies and pensions,that is forcing wages to increase,even though less than them and inflation.It could be the UK has around 3% extra inflation than other countries,thats what i see,around 3% more,so i suspect an average 3%pa loss in currency buying power over the cycle.There is a window for inflation to fall into outright deflation for a small period due to lags,but the scale of this inflation is causing a lot of damage underneath.The US and EMs are using the time to onshore or expand their production,the UK and EU have allowed the US to destroy out competitive industries by putting a wedge between us and Russian energy.

I think its likely we swing lower in inflation then a rise back to the 4% to 5% levels that will see rates between 4% and 4.5% in the mid term.There will be some relief on mortgages,but still much longer term pain from where they were.

Yes, this potential for short-term deflation and D Hunter’s deflationary bust comments, where he’s suggested, at least in the US, that bonds could participate in a final rally, has been what I’ve been wrestling with the past 18 months. Owing to my own dithering, inertia and underestimating the inflation impact, the corporate bond-heavy fund ISA I have has lost quite a bit since end of 2021. Main damage was done in first half of last year and I’ve been watching it closely, hoping it might win back some of its losses. As well as some equities, it also has some exposure to UK and US gilts and your recent comments have made me more jittery about just cashing-in now. I’ve actually now got my letter to cash-in all signed now and ready to go. Tomorrow’s inflation figures may be the final push I need. We’ll see. Fortunately, this thread has helped me reposition some other investments (even though this month has been ropey) and I’m on about 12% equivalent interest for Premium Bonds this year. 

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

I'm going to buy 10 and let 'em out #refugeeswelcome

If you could make sure they are from Pattaya,cheers

[Lightscribe]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

I'm going to buy 10 and let 'em out #refugeeswelcome

I heard other rooms available were mysteriously unavailable, you’ll make a mint!  

[Stuey]

8 minutes ago, Loki said:

I'm going to buy 10 and let 'em out #refugeeswelcome

I'm already eyeing up my second 

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Stuey said:

I'm already eyeing up my second 

You gotta pump those numbers up, those are rookie numbers

[Stuey]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

You gotta pump those numbers up, those are rookie numbers

Steady wins the race bro. Sadly the housing market is heading for a 12-18 month stalemate until the rapid interest rate rises have been unwound/subsidised by government. 

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

A mate of mine is a mortgage broker,he has just bought a massive Chateau in France.He still has the mortgage business but has two very long term staff,think they have been with him for over 20 years who run it when he is in France.He has done the Chateau up mostly himself and makes a packet renting it out for holidays.Its always amazed me how much they make for doing nothing at all.Anyone can search for a mortgage,its a complete scam really.He said he loves it when the market collapses because its harder for people to get a mortgage,so instead of just the dopey he can fleece even those who understand the market a bit.Its going to be epic watching the UK housing equity implode.BTL is my pension gone,MEW gone,Equity Release gone for all but the biggest houses etc.Watching Hunt today you could tell they wanted to bail out mortgages,but knew it would blow up the gilt market,they are not fully trapped,the Tory loss at the next election is going to be total.

World class service led economy. There’s always someone taking a cut.

 

[RJT1979]

16 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Steady wins the race bro. Sadly the housing market is heading for a 12-18 month stalemate until the rapid interest rate rises have been unwound/subsidised by government. 

Hmo daddy stuey 

[Red Debt Redemption]

5 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Just watched David Hunter's latest video and he says Gold to $3000 and Silver $60.

By the end of the decade Gold $20,000 and Silver $400 to $500.

@Bobthebuilder @Underwhelmed @RJT1979

Mumsnet post substance crew ASSEMBLE!

[Bobthebuilder]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

The discussion on here regarding important trends such as 'quiet quitting'/Atlas shrugging' is a very interesting one. Can I ask what your friend is planning to do next, will it be perhaps 2/3 days/week fitting kitchens, or something different?

He did a stint as a "locksmith" earlier in life, he may have made a lot of money running a good business and live in a beautiful house, but still loves the idea of breaking into people homes a couple of days a week.

[Plan-b]

26 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

@Bobthebuilder @Underwhelmed @RJT1979

Mumsnet post substance crew ASSEMBLE!

There might already be a covert known operative on the ground over at Mumsnet .. 

https://www.dosbods.co.uk/topic/15655-property-crash-just-maybe-it-really-is-different-this-time/?do=findComment&comment=1953962

 

[Lightscribe]

8 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

There might already be a covert known operative on the ground over at Mumsnet .. 

https://www.dosbods.co.uk/topic/15655-property-crash-just-maybe-it-really-is-different-this-time/?do=findComment&comment=1953962

 

It’s the missus 

[GoneDark]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

Popped the radio on the other day coming back from work. Talking about food, something really healthy  and apparently tasty. The guy was on about trying to get people to try this really healthy stuff, but, the look of it put some off, even if they are informed how good it tastes and how healthy it is they wouldn’t taste it. Went on a bit but then went on to say the ones who did loved it and would carry on with it. 
It’s only until they taste. 
Same in a way for your family member in a round about way.

Can't believe no person has asked about this. 

I no longer care about the price of gold, silver or BAT. I just want to know what this food is?

It must be something fermented. Kimchi?

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, GoneDark said:

Can't believe no person has asked about this. 

I no longer care about the price of gold, silver or BAT. I just want to know what this food is?

It must be something fermented. Kimchi?

More metaphor mate.

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

More metaphor mate.

I couldn't, I'm stuffed

[GoneDark]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

More metaphor mate.

I haven't seen it in Aldi. Is it a Waitrose thing?

Fuck that I'm back to off topic where I understand what's going on.

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, Loki said:

I couldn't, I'm stuffed

Your doin it wrong 

[M S E Refugee]

An interesting development if true, "what's good for the goose is good for the gander".

 

Beijing and Havana are in negotiations to establish a military training facility in Cuba, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing current and former US officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Talks about the base on Cuba’s northern coast are “at an advanced stage but not concluded,” the WSJ claimed, based on what the officials described as “convincing but fragmentary” and highly classified US intelligence reports.

One current and one former official said the facility would be part of ‘Project 141’, a Chinese military initiative to set up bases and logistical support around the world. If true, this “could provide China with a platform to potentially house troops permanently on the island” and potentially expand intelligence-gathering against the US, they said.

The Journal’s report comes shortly after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited China in order to “halt a downward spiral in relations” between Washington and Beijing. He was even received by Chinese President Xi Jinping.

 

 

Read more

Why wouldn’t China draw Cuba into the new Cold War?

The same outlet had alleged the existence of a “Chinese spy base” in Cuba earlier this month. After first denying the report as “inaccurate,” the White House revealed intelligence reports that claimed four Chinese intelligence-collection facilities have been in Cuba since at least 2019.

Cuba called the original WSJ report “totally mendacious and unfounded,” while the Foreign Chinese Ministry said on June 9 that the US was an “expert in chasing shadows” in other countries and meddling in their affairs. Beijing also noted that Washington had blockaded Havana for over 60 years and maintains its own military base in Guantanamo Bay.

The White House declined to comment on the new WSJ story. According to the unnamed officials, President Joe Biden’s administration has reached out to Cuba to block the deal, citing “what it thinks might be Cuban concerns about ceding sovereignty.”

Other officials speculated that China’s move might be a counter to the US sending over 100 troops to Taiwan, to train the local military, earlier this year. The Journal noted that Taiwan was roughly the same distance from the Chinese mainland as Cuba from the US. It neglected to note that the US recognizes the island as Chinese under the ‘One China’ policy, while Cuba has been an independent state since 1902.

 

 

[ccc]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

A mate of mine is a mortgage broker,he has just bought a massive Chateau in France.He still has the mortgage business but has two very long term staff,think they have been with him for over 20 years who run it when he is in France.He has done the Chateau up mostly himself and makes a packet renting it out for holidays.Its always amazed me how much they make for doing nothing at all.Anyone can search for a mortgage,its a complete scam really.He said he loves it when the market collapses because its harder for people to get a mortgage,so instead of just the dopey he can fleece even those who understand the market a bit.Its going to be epic watching the UK housing equity implode.BTL is my pension gone,MEW gone,Equity Release gone for all but the biggest houses etc.Watching Hunt today you could tell they wanted to bail out mortgages,but knew it would blow up the gilt market,they are not fully trapped,the Tory loss at the next election is going to be total.

I've not watched much of the chateau stuff but it always ends in disaster. 

If it was great a local would have done the same years ago. 

[Lightscribe]

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/universal-credit-low-cover-basics-high-inflation-rates-mp-2424884#:~:text=Universal credit is “too low,a parliamentary group has said.
 

bennies are too low you heartless bastards.

[crashmonitor]

FFS 7.1% CORE, 8.7% UNCHANGED CPI

[Balding Badger]

1 minute ago, crashmonitor said:

FFS 7.1% CORE, 8.7% UNCHANGED CPI

Oh dear, unexpectedly unchanged, how unforeseen. 0.5% anyone?

[Jay]

Just now, crashmonitor said:

FFS 7.1% CORE, 8.7% UNCHANGED CPI

Ouch…so more rates likely..markets pricing in 5 rate rises..

apparently consumer spending was up…interesting..

[Balding Badger]

In all seriousness though, this does seem to be a real problem and the chances of the medicine having to be really nasty just keeps going up.

[Lightscribe]

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Finews.co.uk%2Finews-lifestyle%2Fmoney%2Fmortgage-gone-up-forced-move-house-2424124
 

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Finews.co.uk%2Finews-lifestyle%2Fmortgage-doubled-losing-home-2421994
 

How can you be born in this generation bracket and still have fucked up so spectacularly?…