Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[JMD]

12 hours ago, AWW said:

People are bringing purchases forward because they don't want to wait and pay +20% next year. The spiral, it is spiralling.

People are bringing purchases forward because they don't want to wait and pay +20% next year. The spiral, it is spiralling.

Yes I'm certainly buying my silver and gold this year!!

However I admit to buying my PM miners last year (mainly because i didn't want to hold so much cash) - so for that purchase I unfortunately bought too early?

Edited June 22, 2023 by JMD

[Ash4781b]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

Up 0.5%.

Not that many happy people in the office. Some will be a bit distressed. Reminds me of my youth when dad used to come home in 80s,90s after bank raise rates.

[TNS]

Brexit crap spamming the thread, some bans need dishing out @spunko 

[spunko]

8 minutes ago, TNS said:

Brexit crap spamming the thread, some bans need dishing out @spunko 

I've tried to clear it up.

 

@Milfhunter2021 Ich werde dies auf Deutsch sagen, um meine standpunkt zu unterstreichen . Bitte spammen Sie diesen thread nicht mit irrelevante Brexit-scheiss

[spunko]

Back on topic, top comment yet again on the Daily Mail misses the point.

She would have been stress tested up to 8% so she can't really be whinging about it too much. Or are we about to see the new liar loans 2.0?

[Milfhunter2021]

1 minute ago, spunko said:

I've tried to clear it up.

 

@Milfhunter2021 Ich werde dies auf Deutsch sagen, um meine standpunkt zu unterstreichen . Bitte spammen Sie diesen thread nicht mit irrelevante Brexit-scheiss

I was not spamming it ... just stating a fact ... Brexit was a disaster for the UK economy ... this thread is about the economy ... 

Brexit had an affect ... all facts .. 

If Brexit was a success , why is the UK not getting its Brexit dividend economically . 

[spunko]

2 minutes ago, Milfhunter2021 said:

I was not spamming it ... just stating a fact ... Brexit was a disaster for the UK economy ... this thread is about the economy ... 

Brexit had an affect ... all facts .. 

If Brexit was a success , why is the UK not getting its Brexit dividend economically . 

It's not really one for this thread though, there are other threads to discuss Brexit already.

[Joncrete Cungle]

15 minutes ago, spunko said:

Back on topic, top comment yet again on the Daily Mail misses the point.

She would have been stress tested up to 8% so she can't really be whinging about it too much. Or are we about to see the new liar loans 2.0?

Once moved in I bet in many cases two new pcp / finance cars arrived, after the mortgage company finished looking at their finances.... Two year mortgage fixes and 3 or 4 year car deals could get interesting from now on...

Edited June 22, 2023 by Joncrete Cungle

[JMD]

6 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

Economist on Sky News not mincing his words re. BOE incompetence, he seems quite angry. He thinks they have to go 0.5%...I'm not so confident. Tenreyro and Dinghra aren't going to u-turn are they. Even a 0.5% would be a total embarrassment for Bailey.

 

The trouble is with human nature, if you have made cataclysmic mistakes and  are getting pilloried you double down and get bloody minded. Bailey has never even apologised.

 

Hopefully I'm wrong on this. We can count on Cath Mann to go 0.5% or even 0.75%  that's it.

It probably shows the importance of being able to sack people who were wrong because you are not bound by your previous behaviour, like a double or quits gambler trying to redeem your reputation.

 

 

Interesting to hear his views because Gerard Lyons was actually considered for BOE governor back in 2019, because of his former close working ties with Boris, but lost out to Bailey.

Edited June 22, 2023 by JMD

[reformed nice guy]

For a view from the wonks that want to continue with low rates:

https://reaction.life/bank-of-england-should-be-reckless-and-pause-interest-rates/

No mention of inflation linked pensions but they do mentioned 9 million people not working....... no reason WHY they are not working but suggest a 6 month NI holiday to entice them back!

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

I put milf hunter on ignore as soon as I saw its first post.

 

My cunt detector never fails.

[sleepwello'nights]

26 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

 

No mention of inflation linked pensions but they do mentioned 9 million people not working....... no reason WHY they are not working but suggest a 6 month NI holiday to entice them back!

 

Some inflation linked privat pension are capped.

 https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-10816063/Think-pension-inflation-proof-Prepare-shock.html

There are also some index linked pensions I've read about where the final salary pension calculation includes a deduction for the state pension. The amount you would receive is calculated, the state pension entitlement deducted and topped up with the private pension.

All is not quite as rosy as would seem.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Brilliant, thanks. Now I understand it- wealth needs to be distributed towards production, unfortunately our government is distributing it to increase consumption instead, so doing exactly the opposite of what they should be.

Yes,they are distributing to keep consumption level for the none working,but that means unless we increase production a huge amount the none inflation protected will have to lose their and the none workings share.They are using tax of course on workers,but thats not enough,so they are taking all saved wealth.Those gilt savings in pensions was a direct transfer from workers to bennies and retired public sector,shocking direct theft.

In a real economy we would see consumption fall across the board,but with rising prices the invisible hand would ramp up production to capture the increases.What this cycle is really about is governments are taking double what they should,but they dont understand that.I think the lack of understanding will destroy the Tories forever,Labour might follow.Our econnomic and social policies could not be worse for the cycle.

[AWW]

59 minutes ago, Milfhunter2021 said:

I was not spamming it ... just stating a fact ... Brexit was a disaster for the UK economy ... this thread is about the economy ... 

Brexit had an affect ... all facts .. 

If Brexit was a success , why is the UK not getting its Brexit dividend economically . 

All of your points have been answered. You might even have understood some of those answers.

If the EU is such a success, why are some of the EU's biggest economies doing worse by all the measures you posted than the UK? Example:

[Option5]

32 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I put milf hunter on ignore as soon as I saw its first post.

 

My cunt detector never fails.

It missed me

[reformed nice guy]

UK gilt yields are now higher than their USA equivalents. This is back to the long term norm, but when was this last the case?

[wherebee]

45 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I put milf hunter on ignore as soon as I saw its first post.

 

My cunt detector never fails.

oddly enough, so did I.  I occasionally read entries when other quote and it looks slightly useful info.  Not often though.

And I've only ever put two people on ignore.  ever.

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, spunko said:

Back on topic, top comment yet again on the Daily Mail misses the point.

She would have been stress tested up to 8% so she can't really be whinging about it too much. Or are we about to see the new liar loans 2.0?

Fuck them all. I don’t wish morgage holders any ill will.but they got stress tested they would need to be a retard to expect interest rates to stay so low.it’s well documented on here how I did 54 hours every week and knocked every penny off my morgage.only buying new windows and doors and boiler after I’d paid it off. If a retard like me can see the danger I’ve fuck all sympathy 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

Anyway, back on topic... why does the media seem to expect a mortgage bailout? There are ~9m OO mortgages currently outstanding in the UK. I can't find figures on how many of those are at risk of being repossessed in a worst-case scenario (for them) of, say, 8% base rate, but would assume it is in the hundreds of thousands.  It's a tiny fraction of the population. The rest will just have less disposable income. That's just something that happens in a recession, particularly one that happens after 15 years of recessions being placed on hold by ZIRP. If we're going to get the money hose out, over-indebted mortgage holders are the last place it's going to get sprayed by a government of any stripe. Labour will probably say they'll do something to get into power, then say, oh sorry, the books are worse than we thought. It doesn't matter what any other party says as they won't be in power.

It's because they have a vested interest. The media luvvies will be mostly down south, where mortgage debt is higher.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

This is a dumb question, because I'm sure you've said it loads of times, but can you explain what a distribution cycle is?

DB has already answered your question regarding distribution cycles.

But I always find a visual image often helps underscore the seriousness of a situation...  But as DB says, remember there is still time for a change of direction, before our economy fully devorours itself!

 

Edited June 22, 2023 by JMD

[Milfhunter2021]

1 hour ago, spunko said:

It's not really one for this thread though, there are other threads to discuss Brexit already.

ok , but simply pointing something out 

[Milfhunter2021]

32 minutes ago, AWW said:

All of your points have been answered. You might even have understood some of those answers.

If the EU is such a success, why are some of the EU's biggest economies doing worse by all the measures you posted than the UK? Example:

unlike Britain , the EU has an economy ... 

lets face it your exports are "finance" which produces literally nothing 

Education which produces literally nothing 

Both of which are easily overtaken in the long term future .. 

Spain, Italy and Greece still produce an item ... and more importantly are not run by Jewish Bankers . 

those economies are growing quicker than the UK also .... example is below ... by 2030 Poland will have a better economy than the UK .. 

I'm sorry you cannot see it but ... the UK is the new Romania ,,,, it was Europe propping up the UK not the other way around. 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1773005/guy-hands-poland-gdp-richer-britain

Edited June 22, 2023 by Milfhunter2021

[King Penda]

12 minutes ago, Milfhunter2021 said:

unlike Britain , the EU has an economy ... 

lets face it your exports are "finance" which produces literally nothing 

Education which produces literally nothing 

Both of which are easily overtaken in the long term future .. 

Spain, Italy and Greece still produce an item ... and more importantly are not run by Jewish Bankers . 

those economies are growing quicker than the UK also .... example is below ... by 2030 Poland will have a better economy than the UK .. 

I'm sorry you cannot see it but ... the UK is the new Romania ,,,, it was Europe propping up the UK not the other way around. 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1773005/guy-hands-poland-gdp-richer-britain

This is glorious news the worse the uk gets the fewer immigrants will go there to live. I doubt Albania has an imigration problem has an example. Got to look at the posatives milfy

[Starsend]

54 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

In a real economy we would see consumption fall across the board,but with rising prices the invisible hand would ramp up production to capture the increases.What this cycle is really about is governments are taking double what they should,but they dont understand that.I think the lack of understanding will destroy the Tories forever,Labour might follow.Our econnomic and social policies could not be worse for the cycle.

Perhaps a price worth paying.

 

31 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Fuck them all. I don’t wish morgage holders any ill will.but they got stress tested they would need to be a retard to expect interest rates to stay so low.it’s well documented on here how I did 54 hours every week and knocked every penny off my morgage.only buying new windows and doors and boiler after I’d paid it off. If a retard like me can see the danger I’ve fuck all sympathy 

I remember when they smashed rates down to near zero for years, my brother was on a tracker, his mortgage payments were laughable, £150 a month or something like that for a nice place. I was paying £800 a month to rent a worse place. That lasted for years. Don't remember a big song and dance about how us poor peasant renters should be helped out with free money.

Well now the boots on the other foot, no mortgage, no rent, just savings - payback's a bitch motherfuckers.

To my brother's credit he did pay his mortgage off while he was gifted such low rates.

Edited June 22, 2023 by Starsend

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Once moved in I bet in many cases two new pcp / finance cars arrived, after the mortgage company finished looking at their finances.... Two year mortgage fixes and 3 or 4 year car deals could get interesting from now on...

Yes, I think thats the difference. I remember buying this house and not taking a holiday other than visiting family/relatives in England for 3 years afterwards. Shitting it about coming off the 2 year fix and rates being higher (which they were). Another 2 year fix and started saving again, only to get oil central heating in etc etc.

Young couple who bought a few doors up from me last year dont seem to have been affected by this at all. He does work all the hours god sends though and she works ft from home too. On their third foreign holiday this year (fair play to them, kids are not at school yet).
Will probably be around this time next year that their deal is up.