Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[RupertT]

3 minutes ago, Milfhunter2021 said:

We sell far more cars than Honda... (and I own 2 Hondas as well) . 

German is better in the EU than out ... we make lots of cash from the EU.

We get it. Germany is better than the UK. The EU is better than the UK. You've posted this repetitively all over dosbods. If you're actually trying to convert people to your point of view then you're going about it the wrong way. If you're not trying to convert people then you're just trolling. Either way can you please give it a rest. 

[Errol]

Up 0.5%.

Edited June 22, 2023 by Errol

[geordie_lurch]

0.5% raise to 5%. Game on

Edited June 22, 2023 by geordie_lurch

[Starsend]

1 minute ago, Milfhunter2021 said:

Yes your GDP is booming right now... after leaving the EU ... 103% Debt to GDP .... 

plus you only have 1 Million people coming in each year now... not the 300k when you were in the EU ... 

Best thing is (nobody in the EU will be dumb enough to leave now) .. laughing 

 

All of these things are true and will have to be dealt with somehow / sometime but at least we only have one layer of criminals to deal with now.

[Errol]

7 members agreed to rise.

[One percent]

2 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

0.5% raise to 5%. Game on

🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

right, now let’s see who’s been swimming naked.  

[geordie_lurch]

2 of the BoE voters voted for no rate hike at all

[Starsend]

Just now, Milfhunter2021 said:

Below is what we call success .... laughing ... 

Remind me what British car brands you actually own now... 

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/business-finance-and-corporate/bmw-group-posts-strongest-profits-106-year-history

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/business-finance-and-corporate/mercedes-benz-boosts-revenues-record-sales-top-end-cars

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/audi-bentley-lamborghini-and-ducati-clock-up-record-6-85m-profit-in-2022/281345

 

You a bit simple mate? I don't give a fuck how much more successful Germany is than the UK - so long as I'm not ruled by them. This does not somehow mean I want to be ruled by India either.

Not sure why you're trying to ram it down my throat, I don't disagree with much of what you're saying and we're in complete agreement on Britain leaving the EU being a good thing all round.

[Eventually Right]

1 minute ago, Milfhunter2021 said:

Because you don't like the truth .... laughing 

@VeryMeanReversion He does not like the fact I proved ... Brexit was a fucking disaster .... 

I hate to say this BUT BREXITEERS ARE ALL WANKERS ! 

Worst thing i ever did was support Brexit ...  (and I have the bollocks to admit my mistakes) . 

THE EU WAS NOT THE PROBLEM .... BRITAIN is the problem ! 

How disappointing, it doesn't seem to work. Is there a lag?

Thread being derailed with your spamming, that's all.

[janch]

4 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

Economist on Sky News not mincing his words re. BOE incompetence, he seems quite angry. He thinks they have to go 0.5%...I'm not so confident. Tenreyro and Dinghra aren't going to u-turn are they. Even a 0.5% would be a total embarrassment for Bailey.

Liam Halligan on GB News seems to be one of the better commentators.  He was on with Farage and Rees-Mogg and they were all saying the massive money printing during the plandemic was the primary reason for the rise in inflation ie an increase to the money supply. so not the....

mis-information from the rest of the MSM (esp BBC/ITV/Ch4 etc) about the reasons for inflation being Ukraine/energy price increases etc.

[Milfhunter2021]

6 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

How disappointing, it doesn't seem to work. Is there a lag?

Thread being derailed with your spamming, that's all.

You mean me ... destroying your arguments for Brexit in public .... 

Because German industry is booming and Britain's "Disneyland Brexit dividend" was a load of total bollocks ... 

@VeryMeanReversion He has no argument to me showing record profits in Germany in all the family companies... I thought you told me these people had brains... they clearly fucking don't ! 

@Eventually Right I proved Germany has low debt , and high GDP .... and after Brexit you went to the stars with Debt .... (Where am I wrong ... come on Little Islander) ... WHERE AM I WRONG !!!!!

All this arrogance ,,,, after a Brexit fucking FAILURE !!!!!

This is the reason your economy is like it is ... because of Disneyland ideas like Brexit ... 

 

Edited June 22, 2023 by Milfhunter2021

[Jeff2500]

22 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Rather be ruled by nobody than make a profit.

Last two BMWs I had were junk, went spectacularly wrong costing me a fortune. I've got a Honda now.

I think German cars peaked in the 1990s. People bought the badge for the quality that came with it. Their buyers back then bought with real money and kept them for quite a while. Now people just buy the badge on finance and replace every three or so years. I haven't driven one recently but up until a few years ago BMWs (3 series) still drove well. Nice rear wheel drive with 50/50 weight distribution. You could tell they were built to a price though. I guess as long as they don't fall apart in the first three years (finance period) then they are happy. I think S-Class / 7-series still appear to be built well 

[Plan-b]

11 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

2 of the BoE voters voted for no rate hike at all

Yeah its the same 2 every time..

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, stoobs said:

Has the MPC ever voted 'no' (even once)?

Also I wonder what would happen if there was a no and a non-majority (e.g. the 9 members split equally between 3 different rates)?

I presume if a vote was against the suggested rate, the governor would put forward a vote on a different rate. The members must be sounded out first, so they know the proposal will pass. An informal shake of the heads at 0.25% today, might have meant a vote at 0.5%?

[Democorruptcy]

20 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

0.5% raise to 5%. Game on

The LDI ducks might be floating calmly on the surface but must be pedalling like hell underneath. 

[leonardratso]

hitler used t think it was all going great as well didnt he... sort of didnt end too well back then.

[Lightly Toasted]

2 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Wow, why haven't the advertising agency used a multi-racial couple?

 

It's important to align feel-good/feel-bad stories with narrative-compliant racial stereotyping, in order to encourage the required positive and negative feelings about the races concerned.

[Heart's Ease]

11 minutes ago, janch said:

Liam Halligan on GB News seems to be one of the better commentators.  He was on with Farage and Rees-Mogg and they were all saying the massive money printing during the plandemic was the primary reason for the rise in inflation ie an increase to the money supply. so not the....

mis-information from the rest of the MSM (esp BBC/ITV/Ch4 etc) about the reasons for inflation being Ukraine/energy price increases etc.

Haven't caught up with that segment - a couple of months ago Liam Halligan said that there would be one more to 4.75% and then done. He was pretty sure of it. Did any of that come through in the commentary? Did he now think any higher was still on table? Thanks.

[AWW]

15 minutes ago, Milfhunter2021 said:

I will not comment to you anymore ... 

Live in Disneyland ... (Britain) until you eat Grass... 

The EU was never the problem . 

Britain was.... 

Anyone with any sense ... can see Brexit was a disaster for the UK ....

Maybe with Labour ... who knows ... the UK might try to rejoin... 

Almost every Brexit voter I know has changed their opinion on Brexit . 

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/only-18-leave-voters-think-105442399.html

It's not Brexit voters' fault that domestic politicians are too inept and unimaginative to do anything positive with Brexit and have opened the taps on immigration.

[Milfhunter2021]

3 minutes ago, AWW said:

The German economy is strong despite high taxes, not because of them. Being paid in an artificially weakened currency rather than the old DEM is the most important thing that Germans get out of EU membership.

Germany and Germans have no intention of leaving the EU ... (most Germans are pro EU) . 

Look at Britain now it left .... Its bankrupt .. 

I'd rather be an EU Citizen (which I am) than a second class non EU Citizen.

Germany does well out the EU (and so do our German families) .

Very happy to belong to the EU . 

British people with EU Passports (Irish) will never be accepted as EU Citizens either. 

Edited June 22, 2023 by Milfhunter2021

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Plan-b said:

I'm not so sure I feel a bit wiped out this morning so best you stay behind the settee sofa. (I keep getting corrected for using the word settee )

Btw I identify as 'First-Nation indiginous Anglo-Saxon/British'* and so demand my right to use any (un-American) terms including settee!  (and yes it is in my lounge!!)

*I know it doesn't quiet make sense but if such nomenclature is good enough for the Aboriginals and North American Indians, then I'll also grab me some of that separatist tribalism nonsense?!

Edited June 22, 2023 by JMD

[janch]

14 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Haven't caught up with that segment - a couple of months ago Liam Halligan said that there would be one more to 4.75% and then done. He was pretty sure of it. Did any of that come through in the commentary? Did he now think any higher was still on table? Thanks.

I don't think he mentioned his previous thoughts!  I was only half-listening though.  Everyone yesterday was expecting higher rates.  The only question seemd to be whether it would be 0.25 or 0.5. 

More than likely we will overshoot at some point since it is a lagging indicator.

[Pip321]

I am in a quandary…..re the ignore function

I am not interested (on this thread) about the rights and wrongs of Brexit, I am here for helpful guidance on where the economy is going and where to invest regardless of any decisions politicians or the public have made in the past. It helps me make investment decisions 

Those inane discussions and arguments are a waste of effort…particularly on this thread  

However the person discussing it has a fab pair of breasts…

Tricky. 😉

Edited June 22, 2023 by Pip321

[crashmonitor]

38 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Yeah its the same 2 every time..

Dinghra and Tenreyro...I said they would double down. Even a 0.25% rise would be an admission of guilt...they will, of course, say I told you so if we go  into recession. However, had they done the right thing in 2021 we wouldn't be in this mess. Indeed if we had continued to pursue their want of low interest rates ( Blanchflower style) we would probably have inflation of 15% now.

 

Andrew Bailey finally did the right thing, he has grown balls and had to humiliate himself by going with 0.5%.  Cath Mann, meanwhile must be loving this. The Jeremiah whose stock is rising.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 22, 2023 by crashmonitor

[AWW]

Anyway, back on topic... why does the media seem to expect a mortgage bailout? There are ~9m OO mortgages currently outstanding in the UK. I can't find figures on how many of those are at risk of being repossessed in a worst-case scenario (for them) of, say, 8% base rate, but would assume it is in the hundreds of thousands.  It's a tiny fraction of the population. The rest will just have less disposable income. That's just something that happens in a recession, particularly one that happens after 15 years of recessions being placed on hold by ZIRP. If we're going to get the money hose out, over-indebted mortgage holders are the last place it's going to get sprayed by a government of any stripe. Labour will probably say they'll do something to get into power, then say, oh sorry, the books are worse than we thought. It doesn't matter what any other party says as they won't be in power.