Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[BadAlchemy]

2 hours ago, AWW said:

Got to love the reporting on interest rate hikes. Look at this photo.

Where's the photo of someone with some savings who would like a return approaching inflation without having to waste their time researching equities and managing a portfolio?

Odd. Every bank/BS website I go to for the last god knows how many years has nice pictures of coloured/mixed race couples smiling at me  as they enjoy the life their new loan/mortgage has brought them.

So who are the horribly white people in this photo? Where did the happy smiley ones go?

Edit: ah, I see sleepwellonights beat me to it. Stands out like a sore thumb all this woke shit, doesn't it.

Edited June 22, 2023 by BadAlchemy

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I was going to call this an anecdotal but it's more of a fucking tragedy.

Good mate of mine has just revealed to me the world of shit he's in with his rental property.

With rate increases he's now paying over 200 a month more on the mortgage (interest only), tried selling it for a year and was offered 10k under asking but "I know what it's worth, I'm not letting it go cheap". I told him to take the offer at the time as it would have paid the mortgage off and left him with a few grand "profit".

Fast forward a year and he's spent over 12k on mortgage repayments, maintenance etc so is now looking at a big loss. Renting it out again but losing 150 a month doing so.

Does anyone see a downside to just handing it back and walking away? At this point I don't see any other option as he's heading for a nervous breakdown or suicide.

Lovely lad, type you could call at 3am and he'd be there no matter what, but fuck me people just won't take telling.

 

Iv sold many a share with a loss,some over the years a £10k loss,the problem your mate has and most BTL is they dont understand rental houses are the same.If the cycle turns against you and the numbers are bad,get out,before it takes you down.

Thats why iv always loved equities.Yes they go down,crash even,but you can buy a good spread.VOD goes bankrupt its not nice,but might be 4 months divis across the portfolio.

Leveraged BTL was a bet on rates.He is losing £150 before any repairs,voids etc.He needs to sell and use that £150 in a SIPP and get the tax relief as well.

Edited June 22, 2023 by DurhamBorn

[DurhamBorn]

Has anyone who has TEF SA with HL had their divi yet?,they like a snail paying it out,i suspect they are getting interest on all these foreign divs by holding a few days rather than pay out,its earmarked for other things not them,

 

[leonardratso]

tef sa, yeah its somewhat late eh;

[leonardratso]

wont make much difference to me, isa's going to shit anyway, 10% down overall now, some real dogs in there.
Luckily i only put 12pence into this year, ive blown the rest on chinese hookers.

(18pence).

Edited June 22, 2023 by leonardratso

[Calcutta]

1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Wow, why haven't the advertising agency used a multi-racial couple?

 

Both a bit Mediterranean looking tho. It's like they were told to use white people, just not too fucking white.

[Starsend]

13 hours ago, Balding Badger said:

I'm just catching up with the thread but really just want to add an anecdote regarding this. I know someone who has quit their job for her 'mental health'. She has had issues in the past and I'm not going to go into details but essentially I think that due to a change in family circumstances she has calculated that she is now either better off or not substantially worse off on benefits than working. Her partner has moved in, bringing a child and she has one as well. Two children are the optimum for tax credits, I believe. They wouldn't have got any with them both in work but with one not working they definitely will. She will, I am sure, also make sure that she gets sickness benefits as she will convince them that she is unfit for work. There are probably other things I haven't thought of that she will be able to claim. She hasn't got another job, but says they will manage. If I had to nail my colours to the mast I would say she has chosen to be 'unfit for work', albeit my opinion doesn't count for anything.

This is a symptom of the collapse we have been reading about in DurhamBorn's posts. People are looking at what is on offer for doing nothing and realising that work doesn't pay for them. It's happening. I think I'm one of those people who have a work ethic so defined that it is hard for me to imagine ever making that sort of calculation, but I do understand that for most people the opportunity to take the rest of their lives off would be something they would not pass up.

edit: spelling.

Incredible how many are making these decisions and it all comes down to one thing - wages in the UK are now very low. They have been pushing them down relentlessly for two decades using their beloved slave labour immigrants - this is now accelerating even more. Like many on this thread I'm on a pretty good whack but will most likely give up work next year in my mid-fifties. Now, the important thing is, I wouldn't have minded perhaps doing a few more years up to 60 perhaps but I'm giving up the moment I can because even though I earn good money (for the UK) it's still shit when you look at what you can buy with it - it's simply not a good exchange for my time and experience. On top of that people don't want to fund an out of control Government who are increasingly losing the plot and spraying taxpayer money at anything other than where it should be going.

 

[AlfredTheLittle]

52 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

.BUT its a distribution cycle.His workers say sorry,im better off not helping you produce pigs,im better off oh this bad back,you know,im off.

 

This is a dumb question, because I'm sure you've said it loads of times, but can you explain what a distribution cycle is?

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

On 19/06/2023 at 09:25, King Penda said:

All we need now is .50 % by weekend 

 

Your wish may well be granted...with .75% today???

 

"Bank of England could spring interest rate ‘JUMBO HIKE’ today amid wage-price spiral fears"

 

 

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

..............

 

Twin personal masseurs, YOU kept that quiet ya sly fox!

[leonardratso]

nice looking blokes as well.

[Starsend]

2 hours ago, Milfhunter2021 said:

I'd rather be the German economy than the British economy right now.  (Big smile) .

Best of all .... who in Europe will want British workers after bankrupting their own economy ... (skill or no skill) no business will want idiots that voted for bankruptcy ... which is what the UK did ... after Brexit . 

No German family business will take British workers.... why would we ... you were stupid enough to cause the problem... why would we want Brits ... 

This was the "Brexit dividend" that was promised.... 

Notice how Germany is not borrowing anywhere near what the UK is right now... laughing at the ONS stats as I type... 

@VeryMeanReversion @Undertaker1968 @Bear Hug @UmBongo @AlfredTheLittle @ohmyholygrail @One percent @Van Lady @Upsettah @ad_ceng 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicspending/bulletins/ukgovernmentdebtanddeficitforeurostatmaast/december2022

 

 

 

 

 

Yes but on the plus side we're no longer ruled by the krauts.

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

This is a dumb question, because I'm sure you've said it loads of times, but can you explain what a distribution cycle is?

Its where the production can not cover the consumption,so if they try to keep consumption the same,then assets must be sold (or taxed,or inflated away) to make up the difference.My numbers say the UK needs to consume around 26% less,its a rough number,but lets say between 20% and 30% less.

Inflation would do this by lowering the value of wages and bennies and pensions.However, inflation linking bennies and state worker pensions the government is making it so those not inflation protected need to lose their 26% AND the none producing and bennies share,so circa 50%.

So far they have done it by inflating away around £500 billion of pensions saved labour,they have taken it through monetising gilts so destroying the value of those already there,they have given that direct to bennies and state pensions.They have DISTRIBUTED those savings to others.

By freezing tax allowances they are DISTRIBUTING that extra tax from workers to none workers.

Now they are running out of road,it will be housing equity.Its will fall a lot,maybe inflation adjusted,maybe nominal on top.

Distribution cycles are where savings are consumed until those savings invest in enough production to increase it to a level where production covers things,so distribution of savings stops.

However in the UK they are simply distributing it all to none producing,hence why my roadmap says collapse,because once all wealth is distributed to consumption,that is the end.

Distribution cycles are normal,but by inflation protecting the none producing they are ensuring complete collapse,but i think something will give before that,i hope anyway.

I spilt a Kraken and coke on my keyboard last week,hence some letters etc not working or doing double,il replace the keyboard when i can be arsed.

 

[Milfhunter2021]

11 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Yes but on the plus side we're no longer ruled by the krauts.

Yes its much better ... you are Ruled by the Indians and Blacks instead.... who are running your economy into the ground on purpose.... 

Yes my friend ...  much better than us Krauts running it ... (and making the economy decent) .. 

Just remember .... the door is closed to rejoin the EU (when you all finally realized you are owned by Jews and Indians... )

Yes Brexit was a massive success .... (Everyone in Europe is laughing at you right now) 

Can't wait to see this Brexit "Dividend"  laughing ...  100% Debt to GDP .... Romania will look rich in comparison soon . 

The cuckolds of Europe.... BRITAIN !

Your PM and his wife : 

The leader of Scotland : 

The Home Secretary : 

The Previous home Secretary :

The secretary of foreign affairs and commonwealth : 

Edited June 22, 2023 by Milfhunter2021

[leonardratso]

thought you were going through some old muppets(jim hendson) promotion photos there.

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

Your wish may well be granted...with .75% today???

 

"Bank of England could spring interest rate ‘JUMBO HIKE’ today amid wage-price spiral fears"

 

 

 

Twin personal masseurs, YOU kept that quiet ya sly fox!

Il lend you one if you ever visit Durham,il pay her extra to come in with nothing more than a reduction sticker covering her modesty.

Did he ask for ending? "no,he ask me to climb in skip behind Aldi,you have strange friends ka"

 

 

[Chewing Grass]

8 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

Your wish may well be granted...with .75% today???

 

"Bank of England could spring interest rate ‘JUMBO HIKE’ today amid wage-price spiral fears"

 

 

 

Twin personal masseurs, YOU kept that quiet ya sly fox!

Yes, but every company in the UK has been finacialised by foreign fuckers buying them and saddling them with debt and rental costs from other companies carrying debt that has to be serviced and refinanced regularly.

So raising interest rates does nothing for them other than pressurise more outsourcing to countries that don't do that shit.

[leonardratso]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

Il lend you one if you ever visit Durham,il pay her extra to come in with nothing more than a reduction sticker covering her modesty.

Did he ask for ending? "no,he ask me to climb in skip behind Aldi,you have strange friends ka"

 

 

she might find a new keyboard for you, you can donate the old one to spygirl.

[ste]

12 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

"Bank of England could spring interest rate ‘JUMBO HIKE’ today amid wage-price spiral fears"

0.25% it is then

[Starsend]

3 minutes ago, Milfhunter2021 said:

Yes its much better ... you are Ruled by the Indians instead ... 

Yes Brexit was a massive success .... (Everyone in Europe is laughing at you right now) 

Can't wait to see this Brexit "Dividend"  laughing ... 

The cuckolds of Europe.... BRITAIN !

Your PM and his wife : 

The leader of Scotland : 

The Home Secretary : 

The Previous home Secretary :

The secretary of foreign affairs and commonwealth : 

Yes, we've still got a lot of problems in this country but being ruled by Germany is no longer one of them.

The UK may be in a right fucking state but so is much of Europe. Who gives a flying fuck if they're laughing at us.

[Milfhunter2021]

1 minute ago, Starsend said:

Yes, we've still got a lot of problems in this country but being ruled by Germany is no longer one of them.

The UK may be in a right fucking state but so is much of Europe. Who gives a flying fuck if they're laughing at us.

If you were ruled by us Germans .... you might actually make a profit ... laughing ... 

Still thats why British Leyland was so successful ... and BMW, Mercedes, VW all failed.... laughing loudly 

Seriously ... Europe is in a much better place than the UK ever will be. 

 

[Funn3r]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I spilt a Kraken and coke on my keyboard last week,hence some letters etc not working or doing double,il replace the keyboard when i can be arsed.

I have a washable keyboard - not this specific one - and it is fabulous. I tend to eat at the computer a lot so the keys soon get full of pizza, mayonnaise, all sorts of yuck. Just splodge it in the sink and give it a scrub.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Kensington-Waterproof-Connection-Compatible-Laser-Etched/dp/B08N4LJFBK/

[Milfhunter2021]

More Brexit success .... laughing 

Why would anyone invest in Britain right now.... even the US thinks the UK is fucked. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/19/britain-sidelined-intel-semiconductor-spending-spree-europe/

[invalid]

On 21/06/2023 at 07:16, desertorchid said:

Well done to the BOE and the Treasury

 

 

 

I looked at the inflation and massive borrowing and thought we are fucked.

Then I realised, we are double fucked because the morons in charge are beyond useless. Net borrowing estimate out by nearly £5 billion? WTF

Then I realised the two statements above mean we are quadruple fucked.

 

The positive from this is that we can see where this is heading and hopefully put ourselves into the best possible position.

 

 

 

[Himura]

1 minute ago, Milfhunter2021 said:

If you were ruled by us Germans .... you might actually make a profit ... laughing ... 

Still thats why British Leyland was so successful ... and BMW, Mercedes, VW all failed.... laughing loudly 

Seriously ... Europe is in a much better place than the UK ever will be. 

 

Most of Europe is a wasteland of corruption and laziness.  Ze Germans have ruined themselves joining the EU, the pain is only just starting for them.  

[AlfredTheLittle]

23 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its where the production can not cover the consumption,so if they try to keep consumption the same,then assets must be sold (or taxed,or inflated away) to make up the difference.My numbers say the UK needs to consume around 26% less,its a rough number,but lets say between 20% and 30% less.

Inflation would do this by lowering the value of wages and bennies and pensions.However, inflation linking bennies and state worker pensions the government is making it so those not inflation protected need to lose their 26% AND the none producing and bennies share,so circa 50%.

So far they have done it by inflating away around £500 billion of pensions saved labour,they have taken it through monetising gilts so destroying the value of those already there,they have given that direct to bennies and state pensions.They have DISTRIBUTED those savings to others.

By freezing tax allowances they are DISTRIBUTING that extra tax from workers to none workers.

Now they are running out of road,it will be housing equity.Its will fall a lot,maybe inflation adjusted,maybe nominal on top.

Distribution cycles are where savings are consumed until those savings invest in enough production to increase it to a level where production covers things,so distribution of savings stops.

However in the UK they are simply distributing it all to none producing,hence why my roadmap says collapse,because once all wealth is distributed to consumption,that is the end.

Distribution cycles are normal,but by inflation protecting the none producing they are ensuring complete collapse,but i think something will give before that,i hope anyway.

I spilt a Kraken and coke on my keyboard last week,hence some letters etc not working or doing double,il replace the keyboard when i can be arsed.

 

Brilliant, thanks. Now I understand it- wealth needs to be distributed towards production, unfortunately our government is distributing it to increase consumption instead, so doing exactly the opposite of what they should be.