Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[sancho panza]

Soem Wolf st charts that havent been posted iirc

to all thsoe 'infltion has peaked' types......core CPI looks ominous

Imagien how much worse it would be if fuel hadn't started deflating price wise

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/06/21/inflation-shocker-in-the-uk-core-cpi-spikes-to-30-year-high-driven-by-spike-in-services-even-as-motor-fuel-prices-plunge/

[King Penda]

I’m not sure why I can’t quote the above post but my metric includes sheer numbers of whores and cost.im

 expecting more whores and a reduction in costs for a shag 

[wherebee]

My stock phrase for idiots who say the Ukrainian invasion caused inflation: 

Correlation is not causation, as you keep telling me about sudden deaths and the vaccine rollout....

[Stuey]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Soem Wolf st charts that havent been posted iirc

to all thsoe 'infltion has peaked' types......core CPI looks ominous

 

Fortunately my analysis involves more than just drawing a line through the last few data points 

[mcdongle]

I downloaded this from the Canadian housing blog i follow earlier in the year, How banks over there are dealing with higher rates.

 

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by mcdongle

[Ash4781b]

Blimey. I’ve not kept track but according to Faisal Islam over at so-called market expect bank rate to peak at 6-6.25%. Breathtaking really. Not much hope there for leveraged interest only BTL there. They assume they can exit by selling a few properties etc. I go back to a recent previous point they really need to be doing some in-depth financial modelling because many could easily end up bankrupt. Housing market goes illiquid but Hmrc, banks wanting their money etc.

what is suspect though is we are getting a mad scramble with mortgage products pulled say a week in front of a base rate decision. Hmm. Also Truss got binned for less…

before we know it we’ll get a surprise inflation number and we’ll get talk of 7% base. How do we protect ourselves? 

[Joncrete Cungle]

3 hours ago, wherebee said:

My stock phrase for idiots who say the Ukrainian invasion caused inflation: 

Correlation is not causation, as you keep telling me about sudden deaths and the vaccine rollout....

Or I ask them ' if you are correct that Putin caused electricity, gas, petrol and diesel prices to go up. Do you now give Mr Putin the credit for those same prices starting to fall'

The look on their faces is priceless....

Edited June 24, 2023 by Joncrete Cungle

[Sugarlips]

How do we protect ourselves? 

 

Not sure if serious so have you considered paying down and retiring debt?

It’s what people used to do back in the 20th century.

[JoeDavola]

7 hours ago, King Penda said:

im expecting more whores and a reduction in costs for a shag 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

5 hours ago, mcdongle said:

I downloaded this from the Canadian housing blog i follow earlier in the year, How banks over there are dealing with higher rates.

 

 

Shame there is nothing there on the outstanding balance or how much if anything has been paid off the principal. Is the accrued interest one month's interest? If so the loan is around 794,000 Canadian dollars. That can't be right as the debt would be cleared much more quickly at that monthly repayment net of that interest, if also monthly. The accrued interest must either be for less than one month or based on a previous lower interest rate.

There must be the tiniest amount getting paid off for the term to be that long. Another rate rise and they will probably have to put in an horizontal 8 for time remaining to indicate infinity.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Yadda yadda yadda

[belfastchild]

Do you know the way people say you dont really recognise collapse happening around you until you are in it and most people dont notice the signs in advance?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-66003650

Northern Ireland is so fucked that they are planning to turn the street lights off from 1st Jan to 31st March. Its gonna cost in excess of a million to bring in contractors to implement it so they can save 4 million. Whats the odds it costs more, doesnt work and doesnt save that much.
Anyway, remember when I said that NI will have an pre-planned power shortfall from October because they are shutting the coal fired power station?

Will be digging those extra pir security lights out of boxes and getting them up before that happens.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

4 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Do you know the way people say you dont really recognise collapse happening around you until you are in it and most people dont notice the signs in advance?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-66003650

Northern Ireland is so fucked that they are planning to turn the street lights off from 1st Jan to 31st March. Its gonna cost in excess of a million to bring in contractors to implement it so they can save 4 million. Whats the odds it costs more, doesnt work and doesnt save that much.
Anyway, remember when I said that NI will have an pre-planned power shortfall from October because they are shutting the coal fired power station?

Will be digging those extra pir security lights out of boxes and getting them up before that happens.

Switching off the lights at the time of year they're most needed. Nuts.

Perhaps there are other ways to cut costs, such as wages.

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Switching off the lights at the time of year they're most needed. Nuts.

Perhaps there are other ways to cut costs, such as wages.

Bennies

[belfastchild]

32 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Switching off the lights at the time of year they're most needed. Nuts.

I think I'll put in a claim for PTSD if it happens.

When I was a kid if the streetlights were out then something bad was about to happen. Either the army were going to get a rocket up their arse or at the very least the boys were moving guns around. You didnt want to be outside if the streetlights were out.

[Sugarlips]

6 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

I think I'll put in a claim for PTSD if it happens.

When I was a kid if the streetlights were out then something bad was about to happen. Either the army were going to get a rocket up their arse or at the very least the boys were moving guns around. You didnt want to be outside if the streetlights were out.

Go long miners helmets

[sancho panza]

Substantial implications for some big Eurozone banks

Edited June 24, 2023 by sancho panza

[DurhamBorn]

12 hours ago, leonardratso said:

hm m ds smith took a dive last few days, looks like the 75% increase in pre tax profits doesnt make up for a 40% slump in demand, which reminds me, ive got a load of cradboard to burn.

I like DS Smith ,i sold them at £3.59,but started to buy back this week.They have too much debt like almost everybody,but are very well ran.They can take back and recycle all of their products and do take a very large percentage back.They should gain over time as the US and Europe onshore,more boxed there instead of in China.The industry has consolidated down nicely and although cyclical ,suits the cycle.I was going to start buying International Paper,but started back on DS Smith when they fell.UK stocks are suffering from the UK itself being a basket case,even though the companies we focus on make most of their money outside of the UK.

 

[Stuey]

5 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

Blimey. I’ve not kept track but according to Faisal Islam over at so-called market expect bank rate to peak at 6-6.25%. Breathtaking really. Not much hope there for leveraged interest only BTL there. They assume they can exit by selling a few properties etc. I go back to a recent previous point they really need to be doing some in-depth financial modelling because many could easily end up bankrupt. Housing market goes illiquid but Hmrc, banks wanting their money etc.

what is suspect though is we are getting a mad scramble with mortgage products pulled say a week in front of a base rate decision. Hmm. Also Truss got binned for less…

before we know it we’ll get a surprise inflation number and we’ll get talk of 7% base. How do we protect ourselves? 

It's the lack of liquidity that will be a killer.

It really fucks up simple measures like VaR, of course the banks will have better stuff but gappy markets are just not modellable. 

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Switching off the lights at the time of year they're most needed. Nuts.

Perhaps there are other ways to cut costs, such as wages.

You don't really gain much from saying you'll switch them off at 2pm in June. I think 00:00-05:00 is fair enough. 

[Calcutta]

And just like that, America runs the World again.

Somewhere in Washington there's an old white man writing a hitlist of world leaders who got cheeky in the last couple of years.

Brazil, the Arabs, Iran, India, China, Indonesia, all stepped out of line to some extent.

Haven't properly worked out what it means yet. First thoughts are gold gets hammered, oil drops, inflation in the US drops, dollar goes up.

If I was a gambling man, which I am, I'd say gold gets hammered, oil lower, DH melt up, crash postponed till next autumn.

In terms of positioning I think I'm alright. Might even get out of Hochschild with my trousers on once the protestors have been rounded up and shot by Uncle Sam.

Britain's probably still fucked, lower oil will mask inflation for a bit tho. 

Should've bought Ferrexpo yesterday. Trust these cunts to pull their trucks once the market closes. 

Fucking kid is jabbering away about FIFA in my ear so dyor I've confused myself.

[Virgil Caine]

13 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Substantial implications for some big Eurozone banks

Note the German property bubble began with ZIRP.

They avoided most of the madness prior to 2008.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

28 minutes ago, Stuey said:

You don't really gain much from saying you'll switch them off at 2pm in June. I think 00:00-05:00 is fair enough.

Yes that would be fine. The story is a complete switch off. Kids walking home from school in the dark.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Bennies

Yes that would be good but I thought they were set by UK government.

[feed]

Washington Monument syndrome

[Loki]

39 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

And just like that, America runs the World again.

What happened?

[Wight Flight]

Odd thing. Son applied for a credit card yesterday. Approved in seconds.

£10k limit, 27 month interest free balance transfer for a 3% fee.

That is free money.