Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[Sugarlips]

7 minutes ago, JMD said:

Agreed. And I wonder which companies would be used to re-open the coal pits?

Bit early perhaps, but evidence is growing (eg NI street lamp post from @belfastchild ) that our coal mines will be needed - imo much sooner than most people think. Is anyone looking to invest in construction companies - UK or international - that are also capable in the (coal?) mine industry?

I was just thinking to be able to see on the way back from the pub!

[Napoleon Dynamite]

Another reason to have a SIPP: https://archive.ph/A2WBE
 

Quote

 

Hunt aims to channel more pension investments into UK companies

Chancellor to use keynote speech to outline how British retirement funds could put more money into riskier assets

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will use his Mansion House speech next month to outline wide-ranging plans for channelling UK pension investments worth billions of pounds into fast-growing British companies as he seeks to boost economic growth.

 

[Transistor Man]

28 minutes ago, JMD said:

I wonder which companies would be used to re-open the coal pits?

Glencore. Total Sharks. but my sharks. 
 

those guys are on the ball 

Edited June 24, 2023 by Transistor Man

[leonardratso]

37 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Gordon Bennett...talk about grim reading the last few pages here!

anyhoo...just been having a scavenge for any FREE stuff on marketplace AND this comes up in my search , talk about desparate times...this dude will print money for ya  lol...this will bring a few SMILEs to YOU lot!

POUNDS NOTES FOR SALE

https://www.facebook.com/marketplace/item/764390265429997

surely you could buy the fakes using fakes that you bought earlier using fakes that you bought earlier using.......

All good stuff, i once bought 50 fake pound coins for a fiver, took me forever to get rid of them in older vending machines, the quality of some of them was terrible, i put those bad ones on the train tracks and retrieved them after the trans-peninne had been though, some flattened lovely, drilled a few out that werent so good and used them as washers on concrete fence footings cos the bolts had come in random sizes from a derelict electric motor manufacturer factory i used to wander around before it got converted into some sort of methodist church for bible bashers - probably a cult of some sort.
I was very bored as a youngster but i filled my days not in school with none health and safety rated activities.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Who the fuck are the National Council for One Parent Families? Should I ring round some single parents and ask if they're members? Or get @King Penda to use his more extensive set of contacts?

I have more authority on this matter in my left testicle than this woman. Is she even a mother let alone a single parent herself? Has she been banged in spoons disabled bog? If not what are her qualifications?

Yes, our modern social framework seems to enjoy forever splintering and increasingly merely arguing with itself... but nothing seems to improve, funny that!

 

Maybe bit unfair for me to pick on the charity sector, but for example, there are 170,000 charities in the UK. I thought that was a big number...

However that is only the ones registered with Charity Commission. The actual figure is nearly half million, although that mostly is anomalous groups such as housing associations, political organisations, community welfare groups, scout groups, museums, etc, which I'm sure most of them do good work but are more strictly non-profit entities than actual charities.

https://www.charityexcellence.co.uk/Home/BlogDetail?Link=How_Many_UK_Charities_Are_There_Numbers_And_Statistics

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by JMD

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Gordon Bennett...talk about grim reading the last few pages here!

anyhoo...just been having a scavenge for any FREE stuff on marketplace AND this comes up in my search , talk about desparate times...this dude will print money for ya  lol...this will bring a few SMILEs to YOU lot!

POUNDS NOTES FOR SALE

https://www.facebook.com/marketplace/item/764390265429997

The woman in front of me in a Nationwide yesterday went to the counter and said "I phoned earlier and you will take some old money off me, that we found clearing my dad's house". She paid in £1,200

[janch]

That article about the National Council for one-parent families, Sue Slipman and also John Redwood linked to numerous times above is from 1993 when John Redwood was Secretary of State for Wales before devolution.  I think we've moved on a bit from all that

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I agree, but people said the same about "where is the ammo?" and yet it turned out to be a masterstoke to shape Ukrianain decision making to advantage. The Adam Curtis documentary "Hypernormalisation" claims that Russians live in a constant kaliedoscope of conflicting and absurdist media naratives, if that is true it is entirely possible that domestically this won't destabilise things the way something equivalent would here. The BRICS audience will perhaps have been warned to expect this, and ultimately if Ukraine rapidly demilitarises itself in an all out attack on the Kherson defences then they will be impressed. It wouldn't surprise me if Wagner are manning those defences either.

Either way I expect clarity by early next week. Certainly if this drags on for days confidence will drain. If I am right it is a massive gamble by Putin.

Yes, the boss of Wagner group was making most of his money in catering services until 10 years ago. I'm not sure what (if anything) that means but Russia is certainly a curious country. It's part inscrutable Asian and part cowboy/wide-boy Western!!  ...Maybe that sociatal/political combo will serve it well this cycle?

Edited June 24, 2023 by JMD

[Axeman123]

9 minutes ago, JMD said:

It's part inscrutable Asian and part cowboy/wide-boy Western!! 

Alternately you could look at them as a mixture of Ghengis Khan and the Vikings, but with a fondness for the traditional culture of western europe.

[JMD]

54 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

surely you could buy the fakes using fakes that you bought earlier using fakes that you bought earlier using.......

 

MMT?

[Castlevania]

20 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

What happened to those evicted? Did they move into private rental, council houses, back home to their parents or what?

I know two girls of a similar age to me who as kids in the early 90’s had the family home repossessed. One in the South East the other in Herefordshire. In both cases they got a council house.

I just don’t think it’s feasible to mass repo nowadays. Well done you couldn’t pay £1000 a month on a mortgage. Similar rentals are yours for £1500. Now be on your way.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Castlevania

[Lightscribe]

50 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I know two girls of a similar age to me who as kids in the early 90’s had the family home repossessed. One in the South East the other in Herefordshire. In both cases they got a council house.

I just don’t think it’s feasible to mass repo nowadays. Well done you couldn’t pay £1000 a month on a mortgage. Similar rentals are yours for £1500. Now be on your way.

Whichever government is in, they will never let that happen.

There’s no capacity for mass repossessions and it will cause bank busts. Plus it will affect minority demographic more as the cities will see greater falls. They won’t allow that for fear of repercussions.

The onus is that they don’t want private ownership in the future, they want banks/pension funds to be the landlords. Life on a subscription model.

Banks will extend (extend and pretend) and offer IO terms which is akin to renting anyway (without the maintenance downside for the landlord). Other than that it will just be the 3 D’s and forced sellers.

BTR (commie block style) going up here there and everywhere will be the options for the younger generation.

The majority of the nations 2.7 million landlords will be the ones selling up in when the realisation that property prices won’t be going up again for a generation. That’s where the race to the exits price crash will come from.

Any excess money will be going in the bank in savings/pension accounts with higher rates/dividends instead of the housing market. That hasn’t filtered through yet.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Lightscribe

[Xtal]

19 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Whichever government is in, they will never let that happen.

There’s no capacity for mass repossessions and it will cause bank busts. Plus it will affect minority demographic more as the cities will see greater falls. They won’t allow that for fear of repercussions.

The onus is that they don’t want private ownership in the future, they want banks/pension funds to be the landlords. Life on a subscription model.

Banks will extend (extend and pretend) and offer IO terms which is akin to renting anyway (without the maintenance downside for the landlord). Other than that it will just be the 3 D’s and forced sellers.

BTR (commie block style) going up here there and everywhere will be the options for the younger generation.

The majority of the nations 2.7 million landlords will be the ones selling up in when the realisation that property prices won’t be going up again for a generation. That’s where the race to the exits price crash will come from.

Any excess money will be going in the bank in savings/pension accounts with higher rates/dividends instead of the housing market. That hasn’t filtered through yet.

Yes, there were some lovely looking new blocks with “rent with us” on them when I passed through Willesden Junction a couple of weeks ago.

[Animal Spirits]

Will Private Equity Blow Up in 2024?

A look at a potential minefield

https://behindthebalancesheet.substack.com/p/will-private-equity-blow-up-in-2024

[JoeDavola]

3 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Whichever government is in, they will never let that happen.

There’s no capacity for mass repossessions and it will cause bank busts. The onus is that they don’t want private ownership in the future, they want banks/pension funds to be the landlords. Life on a subscription model.

Banks will extend (extend and pretend) and offer IO terms which is akin to renting anyway (without the maintenance downside for the landlord). Other than that it will just be the 3 D’s and forced sellers.

BTR (commie block style) going up here there and everywhere will be the options for the younger generation.

The majority of the nations 2.7 million landlords will be the ones selling up in when the realisation that property prices won’t be going up again for a generation. That’s where the price crash will come from.

Any excess money will be going in the bank in savings/pension accounts with higher rates/dividends instead of the housing market. That hasn’t filtered through yet.

Yup excellent summary of the situation and probable outcome.

There 650 build to rent flats planned in one block alone here in Belfast. It does appear to be the (rather grim) future.

The idea was floated here that the big money won't actually go to the BTL shacks peppered across the country - since it'll be far more profitable to invest in high-density build to rent apartment blocks - cheaper and easier to maintain etc.

 

[Animal Spirits]

And here's a bit of distribution. With Matthew not being far from the New Forest at least he has somewhere nearby to offload the horses .

The retirements left in ruins by interest rate chaos

https://archive.is/4VjwC

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by Animal Spirits

[Chewing Grass]

5 minutes ago, Animal Spirits said:

And here's a bit of distribution. With Matthew not being far from the New Forest at least he has somewhere nearby to offload the horses .

The retirements left in ruins by interest rate chaos

https://archive.is/4VjwC

 

Two take homes from this, Dennis has fuck-all in his pot in reality if all he has lost is £12K.

Dennis, a 65-year-old reader from Nottingham, is due to retire next year. Yet dramatic sell-offs in the bond market in the last 12 months alone mean that his pension has lost more than £12,000 of its value. 

Then, they are pedalling this, if 6% gilts are on offer I'd go for them, once the 'great depressional reset' kicks in you won't find many companies paying a decent dividend let alone having an appreciating share price.

“The pensions industry is too slow to change. We should be investing people’s pensions more in steady, dividend-paying companies, not so much in cash and bonds. But the problem is that it is much cheaper for pension firms to manage gilts than it is to invest in stocks.” 

I'm dumping the last of my shares next week, at least that's more pieces of information I have to keep gone and I can fly lower under HMRC Radar as I fucking hate tax returns.

[King of Fools]

16 hours ago, King Penda said:

I’m not sure why I can’t quote the above post but my metric includes sheer numbers of whores and cost.im

 expecting more whores and a reduction in costs for a shag 

You could set up a website.

Call it HoCompare.

 

[King Penda]

20 minutes ago, King of Fools said:

You could set up a website.

Call it HoCompare.

 

Do you know where I can get thousands of meer cat fluffy toys ?

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Gordon Bennett...talk about grim reading the last few pages here!

anyhoo...just been having a scavenge for any FREE stuff on marketplace AND this comes up in my search , talk about desparate times...this dude will print money for ya  lol...this will bring a few SMILEs to YOU lot!

POUNDS NOTES FOR SALE

https://www.facebook.com/marketplace/item/764390265429997

Bailey has lost some weight hasnt he,

[Kendo]

48 minutes ago, King of Fools said:

You could set up a website.

Call it HoCompare.

 

There could be more haggling over the cost for sure. In 2024, shaggling - meaning to negotiate with a lady of the night - could be a new entry in the Oxford English Dictionary.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Kendo

[Lightscribe]

57 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Yup excellent summary of the situation and probable outcome.

There 650 build to rent flats planned in one block alone here in Belfast. It does appear to be the (rather grim) future.

The idea was floated here that the big money won't actually go to the BTL shacks peppered across the country - since it'll be far more profitable to invest in high-density build to rent apartment blocks - cheaper and easier to maintain etc.

 

I’ve been saying it on here for years, it’s only now that the direction is becoming clear.

We are firmly on the rails of a pre-planned roadmap, which is unacceptable for many because it changes their worldview and what they’ve always known.

[Funn3r]

4 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Gordon Bennett...talk about grim reading the last few pages here!

anyhoo...just been having a scavenge for any FREE stuff on marketplace AND this comes up in my search , talk about desparate times...this dude will print money for ya  lol...this will bring a few SMILEs to YOU lot!

POUNDS NOTES FOR SALE

https://www.facebook.com/marketplace/item/764390265429997

Counterfeiters of US dollars were getting better and better at defeating security measures but ran into an obstacle when the fed introduced special paper containing special fibres. The fibre whatsis could not be faked. 

Unfortunately there was a small flaw in the fed plan. They used the same paper for all denominations. So the counterfeiters simply bought loads of real one dollar bills and minced them up to provide authentic paper for their fake 100 dollar bills 

[M S E Refugee]

24 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I’ve been saying it on here for years, it’s only now that the direction is becoming clear.

We are firmly on the rails of a pre-planned roadmap, which is unacceptable for many because it changes their worldview and what they’ve always known.

Organised Crime and Governments have basically the same business model.

Get people in debt then confiscate their assets.

[Loki]

55 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Do you know where I can get thousands of meer cat fluffy toys ?

Sanctioned