Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[Axeman123]

46 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

And just like that, America runs the World again.

The Russian "coup"?

Has all the previous mad info warfare stuff out of Russia been a fake and now this is real? eg: "Where is the ammunition?" to draw Ukraine into the meatgrinder and then smash them with plentiful ammunition. Now Wagner have allegedly gone mad and are advertising the strongest defences at Kherson Oblast as being abandoned by the Russian army, to invite an all out attack by Ukrainejust after they announced they were pausing the counter offensive. The western MSM weren't even reporting on this for several hours after the online sphere went big on it AIUI, almost like they didn't beleive it. Sure Putin's speach seems to have convinced everyone - after all what world leader would fake a coup by their key ally and imply their own grip on power as fragile? Maybe Russia just takes information warfare to 11.

I could be wrong, and apologies to anyone that doesn't like war stuff in the macro thread, but I think we could see a very different outcome here...

[Calcutta]

12 minutes ago, Loki said:

What happened?

Wagner Group have been turned by the looks of it. 

[Lightly Toasted]

20 hours ago, JMD said:

I know that your highlighting an economic example of Tory failure and that's obviously pertinant for a financial thread.

But the Tories have been in a ideological death spiral for many years. For example I always recall (because for me it was a wake up moment) how John Redwood was effectively shunned by his party in 1993 for daring to open the debate over single mothers and benefits (a surprisingly apt discussion point for this thread). He was a rising star of the party at the time but the 'controversy' effectively killed his career.

My point is merely that if that was how the Tories thought and behaved 30 years ago, then it's no suprise they are philosophically floundering today. Their last five leaders have been awful, with each one being worse than the previous.

However, my great fear is that a period in opposition will enable the Tories to regroup and to begin saying things that make them appear relevant again...  But I guess that is a convenient 'design feature' of our two-party system?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/tories-clash-over-single-mothers-lilley-rejects-demand-to-axe-benefits-1482903.html

 

... Sue Slipman, director of the National Council for One Parent Families, said there was no evidence that women were deliberately getting pregnant to get state benefits. 'Many of the women who are getting deliberately pregnant are career women. About 8,000 teenagers get pregnant each year, mostly through ignorance.' ...

There you have it. State-provided cash benefits and housing have no incentivising effect. Case closed.

[Calcutta]

Just now, Axeman123 said:

The Russian "coup"?

Has all the previous mad info warfare stuff out of Russia been a fake and now this is real? eg: "Where is the ammunition?" to draw Ukraine into the meatgrinder and then smash them with plentiful ammunition. Now Wagner have allegedly gone mad and are advertising the strongest defences at Kherson Oblast as being abandoned by the Russian army, to invite an all out attack by Ukrainejust after they announced they were pausing the counter offensive. The western MSM weren't even reporting on this for several hours after the online sphere went big on it AIUI, almost like they didn't beleive it. Sure Putin's speach seems to have convinced everyone - after all what world leader would fake a coup by their key ally and imply their own grip on power as fragile? Maybe Russia just takes information warfare to 11.

I could be wrong, and apologies to anyone that doesn't like war stuff in the macro thread, but I think we could see a very different outcome here...

Two sides of the same army turning on each other is never a good look. Everything is a confidence game. 

[Axeman123]

2 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Two sides of the same army turning on each other is never a good look. Everything is a confidence game. 

I agree, but people said the same about "where is the ammo?" and yet it turned out to be a masterstoke to shape Ukrianain decision making to advantage. The Adam Curtis documentary "Hypernormalisation" claims that Russians live in a constant kaliedoscope of conflicting and absurdist media naratives, if that is true it is entirely possible that domestically this won't destabilise things the way something equivalent would here. The BRICS audience will perhaps have been warned to expect this, and ultimately if Ukraine rapidly demilitarises itself in an all out attack on the Kherson defences then they will be impressed. It wouldn't surprise me if Wagner are manning those defences either.

Either way I expect clarity by early next week. Certainly if this drags on for days confidence will drain. If I am right it is a massive gamble by Putin.

[JMD]

13 hours ago, wherebee said:

Here in Victoria, the state gvt has a cunning scheme where they give you 15% of your borrowing at near 0% interest.  Catch is they own 15% of the property and any repayment off the mortgage have to come off their bit first.  If the house goes up in nominal value, you owe them 15% of the new value.

Over time I expect them to grow that 15% up (for good reasons, of course, what are your heartless?) and then bundle all those loans into bonds to sell to the private sector.  

Utter cunts.

Wow. I didn't know that. I made up my property equity transfer example but looks like a commercial template for this stuff very much already exists. Australia and Canada appear to be testing grounds for 'new age' ideas (eg COVID controls) so will keep a watch out for that scheme to, sooner or later, roll over to the UK.

[Lightscribe]

14 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Odd thing. Son applied for a credit card yesterday. Approved in seconds.

£10k limit, 27 month interest free balance transfer for a 3% fee.

That is free money.

 

It’s the one thing I’m keeping an eye on for the ‘turn’.

On the FT comments the other day, someone said his SVR mortgage is at 7.5% whilst his rate on his card is 5% so he’ll offset his monthly payments to his card (stoozing presumably).

That has to change as credit gets more expensive and I think it’ll happen quickly, say promotional 0% periods going down to 3 months for example.

This hobbles the ability to re-apply and do the 0% credit card merry-go-round as it would effect the credit score too much.

Then and truly then, we’ll see just how many of this country has been swimming naked when the tide goes out.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

The Adam Curtis documentary "Hypernormalisation" claims that Russians live in a constant kaliedoscope of conflicting and absurdist media naratives

Nothing like here then 

 

[JMD]

8 hours ago, mcdongle said:

I downloaded this from the Canadian housing blog i follow earlier in the year, How banks over there are dealing with higher rates.

 

 

Yep Canada and Australia are definitely the mortgage 'testing grounds'.

Anyway I think mortgages until the customer is 120 years old are now a thing. A few days back I mentioned a UK broker who had arranged one for his client.       As the Chinese say(or curse)...  May you live in interest-only times!!

Edited June 24, 2023 by JMD

[Yadda yadda yadda]

26 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

... Sue Slipman, director of the National Council for One Parent Families, said there was no evidence that women were deliberately getting pregnant to get state benefits. 'Many of the women who are getting deliberately pregnant are career women. About 8,000 teenagers get pregnant each year, mostly through ignorance.' ...

There you have it. State-provided cash benefits and housing have no incentivising effect. Case closed.

Who the fuck are the National Council for One Parent Families? Should I ring round some single parents and ask if they're members? Or get @King Penda to use his more extensive set of contacts?

I have more authority on this matter in my left testicle than this woman. Is she even a mother let alone a single parent herself? Has she been banged in spoons disabled bog? If not what are her qualifications?

[AlfredTheLittle]

13 hours ago, wherebee said:

Here in Victoria, the state gvt has a cunning scheme where they give you 15% of your borrowing at near 0% interest.  Catch is they own 15% of the property and any repayment off the mortgage have to come off their bit first.  If the house goes up in nominal value, you owe them 15% of the new value.

Over time I expect them to grow that 15% up (for good reasons, of course, what are your heartless?) and then bundle all those loans into bonds to sell to the private sector.  

Utter cunts.

Not much different from help to buy is it?

1 minute ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Has she been banged in spoons disabled bog? If not what are her qualifications?

If she has, do you know her?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

19 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

It’s the one thing I’m keeping an eye on for the ‘turn’.

On the FT comments the other day, someone said his SVR mortgage is at 7.5% whilst his rate on his card is 5% so he’ll offset his monthly payments to his card (stoozing presumably).

That has to change as credit gets more expensive and I think it’ll happen quickly, say promotional 0% periods going down to 3 months for example.

This hobbles the ability to re-apply and do the 0% credit card merry-go-round as it would effect the credit score too much.

Then and truly then, we’ll see just how many of this country has been swimming naked when the tide goes out.

They will reduce the length of the interest free period and increase/introduce a percentage fee for the transfer. Retail revolving credit is going to get expensive and that will cause as many problems as mortgages.

Those buy now pay later firms like Klarna will be interesting too. Clearly they're going to see more bad debt but they might have a massive uptick in business offsetting that, at first.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

4 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

If she has, do you know her?

I hope not!

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Calcutta said:

And just like that, America runs the World again.

Somewhere in Washington there's an old white man writing a hitlist of world leaders who got cheeky in the last couple of years.

Worth keeping tabs on.

The US is a dab hand at having many fingers in many pies.

Maybe we’ll see an end to this war sooner rather than later.

Support for ploughing money into Ukraine is rapidly waning now that the western masses mortgages/bills/cost of living has skyrocketed.

Like Covid, you can only press a narrative for a certain period of time before the plebs start revolting and there’s elections coming up and puppets to be put into place. 

But one things for certain, if this phase is drawing to a close then the next is awaiting around the corner.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 minute ago, Lightscribe said:

Worth keeping tabs on.

The US is a dab hand at having many fingers in many pies.

Maybe we’ll see an end to this war sooner rather than later.

Support for ploughing money into Ukraine is rapidly waning now that the western masses mortgages/bills/cost of living has skyrocketed.

Like Covid, you can only press a narrative for a certain period of time before the plebs start revolting and there’s elections coming up and puppets to be put into place. 

But one things for certain, if this phase is drawing to a close then the next is awaiting around the corner.

Germany signed a long term LNG contract with the US last week. Maybe Washington has enough ticks in the win column now?

[M S E Refugee]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Worth keeping tabs on.

The US is a dab hand at having many fingers in many pies.

Maybe we’ll see an end to this war sooner rather than later.

Support for ploughing money into Ukraine is rapidly waning now that the western masses mortgages/bills/cost of living has skyrocketed.

Like Covid, you can only press a narrative for a certain period of time before the plebs start revolting and there’s elections coming up and puppets to be put into place. 

But one things for certain, if this phase is drawing to a close then the next is awaiting around the corner.

I wouldn't be surprised if Putin doesn't want it to end too soon if the Russians are destroying Billions of dollars of Western equipment.

But then again who knows what is happening.

 

[feed]

49 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I agree, but people said the same about "where is the ammo?" and yet it turned out to be a masterstoke to shape Ukrianain decision making to advantage. The Adam Curtis documentary "Hypernormalisation" claims that Russians live in a constant kaliedoscope of conflicting and absurdist media naratives, if that is true it is entirely possible that domestically this won't destabilise things the way something equivalent would here. The BRICS audience will perhaps have been warned to expect this, and ultimately if Ukraine rapidly demilitarises itself in an all out attack on the Kherson defences then they will be impressed. It wouldn't surprise me if Wagner are manning those defences either.

Either way I expect clarity by early next week. Certainly if this drags on for days confidence will drain. If I am right it is a massive gamble by Putin.

Indeed you only need look at how the 2016 Turkish coup attempt turned out for Erdogan.

Time will tell.  
 

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

The Russian "coup"?

Has all the previous mad info warfare stuff out of Russia been a fake and now this is real? eg: "Where is the ammunition?" to draw Ukraine into the meatgrinder and then smash them with plentiful ammunition. Now Wagner have allegedly gone mad and are advertising the strongest defences at Kherson Oblast as being abandoned by the Russian army, to invite an all out attack by Ukrainejust after they announced they were pausing the counter offensive. The western MSM weren't even reporting on this for several hours after the online sphere went big on it AIUI, almost like they didn't beleive it. Sure Putin's speach seems to have convinced everyone - after all what world leader would fake a coup by their key ally and imply their own grip on power as fragile? Maybe Russia just takes information warfare to 11.

I could be wrong, and apologies to anyone that doesn't like war stuff in the macro thread, but I think we could see a very different outcome here...

As soon as I saw this story last night I thought it stinks to high heaven of a psyop. Made no sense why Prigozhin has been running his mouth, kidnapping Russian generals etc for months now with not a word from Putin, unless it's been to create the backstory of plausibility for today.

 

"Appear weak when you are strong......."

Sun Tzu

 

 

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, Lightly Toasted said:

... Sue Slipman, director of the National Council for One Parent Families, said there was no evidence that women were deliberately getting pregnant to get state benefits. 'Many of the women who are getting deliberately pregnant are career women. About 8,000 teenagers get pregnant each year, mostly through ignorance.' ...

There you have it. State-provided cash benefits and housing have no incentivising effect. Case closed.

Next it will be every child with a disability realy has one.

[reformed nice guy]

The main point for this thread about the Wagner happening in Russia is that it will bring more cost push inflation if Russian commodity exports are hampered

[janch]

18 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

What happened to those evicted? Did they move into private rental, council houses, back home to their parents or what?

I think most moved to private rentals.  Rents were comparatively affordable then compared to now as far as I know.  The people I knew had kids.  Singles I didn't know of any but very few ever moved back to their parents once they'd left home back then.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Gordon Bennett...talk about grim reading the last few pages here!

anyhoo...just been having a scavenge for any FREE stuff on marketplace AND this comes up in my search , talk about desparate times...this dude will print money for ya  lol...this will bring a few SMILEs to YOU lot!

POUNDS NOTES FOR SALE

https://www.facebook.com/marketplace/item/764390265429997

[Joncrete Cungle]

3 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Gordon Bennett...talk about grim reading the last few pages here!

anyhoo...just been having a scavenge for any FREE stuff on marketplace AND this comes up in my search , talk about desparate times...this dude will print money for ya  lol...this will bring a few SMILEs to YOU lot!

POUNDS NOTES FOR SALE

https://www.facebook.com/marketplace/item/764390265429997

I was just stimulating the local economy your honour...

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Go long miners helmets

Agreed. And I wonder which companies would be used to re-open the coal pits?

Bit early perhaps, but evidence is growing (eg NI street lamp post from @belfastchild ) that our coal mines will be needed - imo much sooner than most people think. Is anyone looking to invest in construction companies - UK or international - that are also capable in the (coal?) mine industry?

Edited June 24, 2023 by JMD

[janch]

4 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Perhaps there are other ways to cut costs, such as wages.

...or stopping the index-linking of pensions in payment to their old employees.  Even better, cut the pensions in payment a bit.....