Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[montecristo]

3 minutes ago, Underwhelmed said:

how do i get tax relief on my SIPP contribution for the higher rate bracket, I don't do a tax return so do I just write to them? ta

Automatic i believe

https://www.hl.co.uk/help/sipp,-drawdown-and-annuity/sipp/tax-relief/how-is-tax-relief-reclaimed-on-my-sipp-contributions

[Underwhelmed]

1 minute ago, montecristo said:

Automatic i believe

https://www.hl.co.uk/help/sipp,-drawdown-and-annuity/sipp/tax-relief/how-is-tax-relief-reclaimed-on-my-sipp-contributions

it's auto for basic rate, but on the link I can see info how to claim for higher relief and a template to use.

[Axeman123]

18 minutes ago, Butthead said:

You can imagine a US politician standing up in the next couple of years and making the point that "China is our biggest enemy but each month we pay them $x Bn in debt interest" and making a spurious case for selective default.

No alternative to default sooner or later.

The US is like Enron IMO, which had several cycles of unlocking a lucrative new market (eg energy trading) and then using financial engineering to keep the facade of constant growth going until the next big thing arrived. Obviously they ran out of next big things eventually and by then the financial engineering had gotten massive.

3 minutes ago, Errol said:

Green tariffs starting from July on all bills. Extra £170 a year.

Unless they back-track in light of the media attention this is getting, as seems likely. Someone told me in a panic earlier it was £170/month ("how will I pay it?" etc), if that is representative of how it is going over Rishy won't have a choice.

Can you imagine: a green tarriff because your energy is too cheap to make you use less, during an inflation crisis.

[Kendo]

6 minutes ago, montecristo said:

 

WTF? Most of the media and sob stories from mortgage holders still seem to be blaming her for the rising interest rates and “blowing up” the economy. The public would see her return as complete trolling.

[Errol]

4 minutes ago, Kendo said:

WTF? Most of the media and sob stories from mortgage holders still seem to be blaming her for the rising interest rates and “blowing up” the economy. The public would see her return as complete trolling.

How about Prighozin for PM?

[Axeman123]

5 minutes ago, Kendo said:

WTF? Most of the media and sob stories from mortgage holders still seem to be blaming her for the rising interest rates and “blowing up” the economy. The public would see her return as complete trolling.

I suspect that is the Pishy-Camp setting up a false choice between him and Truss. As you say the narrative around her time in number 10 as the cause of everything is very entrenched.

Allegedly Laura Kunsberg asked Pishy to his face if he lived in a parallel universe on the BBC this morning (according to the DM). That seems like he is on his last legs to me, outright mockery.

[Axeman123]

6 minutes ago, Errol said:

How about Prighozin for PM?

"Hunt where is the mortgage bailout? Cyka! Blyat!"

[A tremendous # on the lung]

21 minutes ago, Underwhelmed said:

it's auto for basic rate, but on the link I can see info how to claim for higher relief and a template to use.

I always assumed you had to do it via a self assessment return 

[Napoleon Dynamite]

32 minutes ago, Underwhelmed said:

how do i get tax relief on my SIPP contribution for the higher rate bracket, I don't do a tax return so do I just write to them? ta

Half will be paid automatically, usually within a month or two.

You should be notified with a P800 around October about the remaining half.   You can then request a cheque for it.

[Sugarlips]

41 minutes ago, Errol said:

Green tariffs starting from July on all bills. Extra £170 a year.

Please explain, I’m never paying the Telegraph (only source I can see) a penny.

Edited June 25, 2023 by Sugarlips

[Virgil Caine]

39 minutes ago, montecristo said:

 

It’s like the passengers on the Titanic electing a new captain after it has hit the iceberg. 

 

 

Edited June 25, 2023 by Virgil Caine

[Bilbo]

4 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

Please explain, I’m never paying the Telegraph (only source I can see) a penny.

Most articles on the Telegraph seem to be free at the moment including that one. I think as it's being sold off management don't care anymore!

[Butthead]

41 minutes ago, Underwhelmed said:

it's auto for basic rate, but on the link I can see info how to claim for higher relief and a template to use.

See here: https://www.gov.uk/tax-on-your-private-pension/pension-tax-relief

Look at the 'Claiming tax relief yourself' section about halfway down the page.

[Errol]

3M reached a possible settlement in the pfas case. At $100 a share currently.

Edited June 25, 2023 by Errol

[DurhamBorn]

37 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I suspect that is the Pishy-Camp setting up a false choice between him and Truss. As you say the narrative around her time in number 10 as the cause of everything is very entrenched.

Allegedly Laura Kunsberg asked Pishy to his face if he lived in a parallel universe on the BBC this morning (according to the DM). That seems like he is on his last legs to me, outright mockery.

They are right of course not to bail out mortgages,its ludicrous talk,but its all the damage done over the last 25 years coming home to roost.They are paying for not dealing with structural issues over that time.Dishy let in a million last year,all consuming from an economy not producing a thing more.Truss was mostly right,but it was too late.Its interesting that now the BOE isnt printing the government cant commit to funding anything.They are praying by freezing tax thresholds the tax take shoots up,but on my numbers,although it does,not as quick as consumption government spending.

[Axeman123]

26 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its interesting that now the BOE isnt printing the government cant commit to funding anything.

Interesting to see thread themes getting an airing in the gaurdian today (if you ignore the headline, and some of the article):

Mortgage rise impact ‘will dwarf energy bills crisis’ for UK homeowners

Quote

One Tory MP called on the government to look at “politically unpalatable” options to help spread the pain of tackling inflation away from mortgage holders, such as slashing state-backed support for the wealthy.

Quote

Lucy Allan, the Telford MP who is standing down at the next election

(not a surprise, they all talk sense once they are on their way out)

Quote

“Government has more room for manoeuvre and needs to be creative. To bring down inflation we need to share the pain across society, however politically unpalatable that is, rather than confine it to just one small group.

“Why, for example, should someone earning £100,000 receive free childcare? Why should someone with a generous public-sector pension also have their state pension raised in line with inflation? Why should the wealthiest in society be eligible for the energy support scheme? Financial support schemes for affluent people fuel inflation. Government will have to apply the brakes as well.”

Edited June 25, 2023 by Axeman123
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rise-impact-dwarf-energy-181448559.html

[MithrilVest]

On 23/06/2023 at 12:22, Yadda yadda yadda said:

It is like roadrunner. Already over the cliff but not yet freefalling.

Point of order Mr Yadda, it is actually the Roadrunner's nemesis, a certain Wile E. Coyote, who runs off the edge of cliffs, doesn't realise at first before looking down and plummeting.

I have to say, if you make such a basic mistake in the area of children's cartoons, how can we take anything you say about finance or the economy seriously?

 

 

 

[Virgil Caine]

57 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

They are right of course not to bail out mortgages,its ludicrous talk,but its all the damage done over the last 25 years coming home to roost.They are paying for not dealing with structural issues over that time.Dishy let in a million last year,all consuming from an economy not producing a thing more.Truss was mostly right,but it was too late.Its interesting that now the BOE isnt printing the government cant commit to funding anything.They are praying by freezing tax thresholds the tax take shoots up,but on my numbers,although it does,not as quick as consumption government spending.

It’s not an either or choice of burning mortgage holders etc or slashing public spending.

Both need to happen.

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

17 minutes ago, MithrilVest said:

Point of order Mr Yadda, it is actually the Roadrunner's nemesis, a certain Wile E. Coyote, who runs off the edge of cliffs, doesn't realise at first before looking down and plummeting.

I have to say, if you make such a basic mistake in the area of children's cartoons, how can we take anything you say about finance or the economy seriously?

 

 

 

Clearly my roadmap is as unreliable as that of Mr Coyote. Or perhaps it is my memory? Either way I'm glad to be set straight on this matter.

Edited June 25, 2023 by Yadda yadda yadda

[Lightly Toasted]

3 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I wish there was a debate about what a successful economy is. For me it is one where wages are growing more than inflation.  You can make the argument for GDP per capita instead. As a worker I prefer a measure that takes my reward into account.

Clearly policy since at least 2008 has failed me and the majority of the population. As far as I can see this isn't even discussed. No-one in politics appears to realise just how bad things have been for Joe Public.

Is it any wonder workers are demotivated when they are told they must receive less money each year? That is where the real anger comes from, nevermind benefits.

The seeds were sown in the late 1990s under New Labour, a period that probably looked successful from the "wages > inflation" measure.

For me it's the alignment of all kinds of economic incentive with societal (thus also economic) well-being including in the very long i.e. multi-generational term. 

[wherebee]

5 hours ago, Stuey said:

I agree there is a risk that inflation could stay high, mainly because of boomers and inflation-linked benefits. 

However mortgaged DEANO will be suffering badly.

Eventually tumbling energy prices will feed throughout the economy. 

I think this is where you are wrong.  The green policies being rolled out in UK (and Aus) means that even if the price of oil and gas go down, the cost of energy to the end user is going to go up because green shit doesn't work and is more expensive.

Add to which the middle eastern oil nations have shit on Bidens head, and will now act to keep oil prices high.

 

I cannot see - especially with a european winter coming up with no russian gas - a single increase in supply which will bring energy costs down for the UK.

[AlfredTheLittle]

26 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I think this is where you are wrong.  The green policies being rolled out in UK (and Aus) means that even if the price of oil and gas go down, the cost of energy to the end user is going to go up because green shit doesn't work and is more expensive.

Add to which the middle eastern oil nations have shit on Bidens head, and will now act to keep oil prices high.

 

I cannot see - especially with a european winter coming up with no russian gas - a single increase in supply which will bring energy costs down for the UK.

I think a lot of the high prices last year was traders panicking. But I agree that there's every possibility of prices going up from here. Also the small matter of 5 million barrels a week which were released from the SPR last year and can't be released again this year.

[JMD]

22 hours ago, Loki said:

Sanctioned 

I note Compare the Market never did 'sanction' its own Russian meerkat puppets. Despite announcing earlier last year, that due to Ukraine war, they would be withdrawing the characters from all promotional advertising before end of 2022. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by JMD

[MrXxxx]

Worth a listen, especially regarding UK property:

https://many-happy-returns.captivate.fm/episode/how-high-will-interest-rates-go

...but what I find amazing is that we have two educated economists [one worked in the city and US], yet the only way they can see to reduce inflation is to have a recession this then creating unemployment, reducing the number of jobs per person available, and so reduce inflation caused by wage demands......surely you could reduce the number of jobs by increasing the number of people available for work, and do this by reducing benefits and so making work a more attractive option?...doing the latter would give you extra economic benefits as well i.e. reduce government spending bill, no recession, more disposable income to be spent into the economy, more tax return....to me it seems the obvious/best solution, or am I missing something?

[Red Debt Redemption]

On 22/06/2023 at 23:58, RJT1979 said:

It's people like you taking in migrant kids that are the slow death of the uk. If people stopped doing it for the money they would put a stop to migration as there would be nowhere left to put them. It's very selfish in someways

They can't stop it the young aren't replacing themselves, haven't been since 1973.