Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[Sugarlips]

37 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Couldnt agree more.However,there is a tiny tiny hope.If your reading this Rachel Reeves MP.I saw Rachel talk a few times and followed her with great interest as she started out and climbed the ranks.I thought her the great hope of a real patriotic left Labour government.She seemed to understand welfare was a disaster,mostly for the working class themselves.She seemed to really get it,and i thought could end up becoming a legend,who reformed welfare,turned it back to a safety net,but at the same time helped everyone into work,and supported them doing it,rather than just dump them.Lately though she has been coming out with bullshit over and over.She seems to be a different person.My question is simple.Is she just playing to the gallery now and remains that great hope she once was?.Or is she really a sell out to the woke etc.If she remains the original i would love to work for her ,and id give her my roadmap work for free and continue to work for free.The BOE when i met them were clueless,no hope at all they will deliver any time soon,i wouldnt even waste my time with them again.

I know il likely be the only one on here who saw that huge potential in Rachel,but i did,and it really might come down to if she follows through on those foundation beliefs she had,rather than the crap coming out now.

Im not discounting a Labour government getting it right,but their green crap,taxes and woke rubbish seems to be clouding the chances of it happening.The country is in crisis,the biggest ever,Labour have stepped up before in the past,but they need to really sit back and consider everything.They can not allow open borders and woke rubbish to dictate policy.The Tories are finished,but Labour will also go the same way unless they really go back to why they exist.Its that everyone should be able to build a life through work,and the state is there to enable that to happen and provide the scaffold those lives and that work is built on.

Rachel has the ability ,she needs to go back and remember herself.

 

Durham Born OBE does have a certain ring to it..

[working woman]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Shipping fresh air halfway around the world doesnt work.

Yes, when i worked in the shop, we would get deliveries of items in, made in China, such as soap dishes, all wrapped in huge amounts of bubble wrap, then boxed in boxes nearly the size of a shoe box. Nuts.

Yes, producing for ourselves first is the sensible way to go. Why rely on someone who may turn out to be your enemy.

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, working woman said:

Based on that we should start to rebuild our textile industry based on what our country/climate etc can provide  - wool, leather, fur, and tree fibres such as viscose.

I do my bit, I buy leather guitar straps from a lady up in Liverpool who still uses a foot pedal driven Singer sewing machine and the like to produce some wonderful products. She likens her work to what the Anglo Saxons were making 1500 years ago.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

29 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Not sure Ive mentioned it before in this thread or others but you have to look at GB in terms of energy consumed per household.

Over here in NI, its primarily heating by oil heating but most cooking etc is done on electricity. As a result, generally speaking the local cables from transformer to house have to be of a higher capacity and IIRC 100A is the standard connection here to every home.
Over in GB its been mostly gas heating and cooking, its been a few years since I looked but I dont think 100A connection is the standard, heard it was as low as 60A or even 30A for newbuilds/apartments. Gonna be fucked if you need to switch over to heat pumps, electric cooking, never mind electric cars.
The first people in a street to switch will be ok due to balancing requirements, after that, not so. Its why in my street there are only 2.5 solar connections, thats all the local end of the grid can handle.

My parents have an electric car. They had to get their connection upped from 60A to 100A. Apparently this isn't always possible due to the way some houses are connected.

[Plan-b]

41 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Which reminds me to submit a meter reading on 30th June!

Is there something about the 30th we should know about?

 

 

 

[belfastchild]

2 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Is there something about the 30th we should know about?

 

 

 

Dunno if its the same over there but over here the govt subsidised energy price disappears on 1st July, so although the price is dropping, the subsidy is disappearing so price is rising.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Is there something about the 30th we should know about?

 

 

 

The government mandated tariffs fall substantially on July 1.

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, belfastchild said:

Which reminds me to submit a meter reading on 30th June!

After saying that, just had the meter reader round! No pre-loading the cheap rates now!

[janch]

I don't have a link but I've heard and read in several places recently that many of the seriously rich (millionaires/billionaires etc) are moving abroad and this will seriously affect UK tax receipts as it is the richest who contribute the most.  The reason is the high rate of tax.

This is what happened under Dennis Healey (labour Chancellor of the Exchequer):

Income tax
Income tax rates raised by 3% taking the basic rate to 33%. A new tax band at 38% was introduced and the top rate was increased from 75% to 83%.  (my bold)

 

Corporation tax
Increased by 12% to 52%.

The above is from a Guardian article and was in his first budget in March 1974:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/1999/mar/03/budget1999.budget26

Edited June 26, 2023 by janch

[Eventually Right]

58 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

Durham Born OBE does have a certain ring to it..

If his roadmap were to be used to avert what could be coming, “Lord _____ of Durham” feels like the minimum reward deserved.

(with accompanying rights to be exempt from all tax forever, and Prima Nocta across the county of Durham)

Edited June 26, 2023 by Eventually Right

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

400kV lines need 2000mm2 cables max, so assuming a typical pylon with 6 pairs of hung cables and there will be more at this rating  to handle higher demand then the worst case is that the UK will need 135 Million Tonnes of Copper for its new green grid.

This will be pointless due to the amount of energy required to mine, process, manufacture, transport and install the stuff.

The green argument in reality is non-existent.

Hmm, last year's total world production of copper was just 22 million tonnes.

Industry and government are well aware that the so-called green transition is just empty rhetoric. This Finnish report, now nearly 2 years old, was one of the first to approach the sustainable energy topic systematically and without bias and without introducing crazy unrealistic assumptions (as most environmental organisations do).

https://www.gtk.fi/en/current/a-bottom-up-insight-reveals-replacing-fossil-fuels-is-even-more-enormous-task-than-thought/?utm_campaign=TraderFerg&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue newsletter

 

Edited June 26, 2023 by JMD

[Long time lurking]

On 19/06/2023 at 17:51, Stuey said:

Do you think the markets drive the BoE? 

 

On 19/06/2023 at 17:31, Long time lurking said:

Another day like today and we will be at 5% by the weekend

What happen in the bond market in the days prior to you posting that question then what did the BOE do a few days latter 

[Stuey]

4 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

 

What happen in the bond market in the days prior to you posting that question then what did the BOE do a few days latter 

They were trading according to expectations. I'm not convinced it means they drove the BoE's decision. 

[Butthead]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Couldnt agree more.However,there is a tiny tiny hope.If your reading this Rachel Reeves MP.I saw Rachel talk a few times and followed her with great interest as she started out and climbed the ranks.I thought her the great hope of a real patriotic left Labour government.She seemed to understand welfare was a disaster,mostly for the working class themselves.She seemed to really get it,and i thought could end up becoming a legend,who reformed welfare,turned it back to a safety net,but at the same time helped everyone into work,and supported them doing it,rather than just dump them.Lately though she has been coming out with bullshit over and over.She seems to be a different person.My question is simple.Is she just playing to the gallery now and remains that great hope she once was?.Or is she really a sell out to the woke etc.If she remains the original i would love to work for her ,and id give her my roadmap work for free and continue to work for free.The BOE when i met them were clueless,no hope at all they will deliver any time soon,i wouldnt even waste my time with them again.

I know il likely be the only one on here who saw that huge potential in Rachel,but i did,and it really might come down to if she follows through on those foundation beliefs she had,rather than the crap coming out now.

Im not discounting a Labour government getting it right,but their green crap,taxes and woke rubbish seems to be clouding the chances of it happening.The country is in crisis,the biggest ever,Labour have stepped up before in the past,but they need to really sit back and consider everything.They can not allow open borders and woke rubbish to dictate policy.The Tories are finished,but Labour will also go the same way unless they really go back to why they exist.Its that everyone should be able to build a life through work,and the state is there to enable that to happen and provide the scaffold those lives and that work is built on.

Rachel has the ability ,she needs to go back and remember herself.

 

Sounds good, and I think there's another area where Labour could really make a difference that'll be close to the hearts of many on here.

There is a lot of entrenched wealth in the UK, people who produce nothing but own and rent out vast swathes of land and property going back centuries. This rent-seeking leeches off those who are productive in the UK. The Tories can never tackle this properly, the land-owners are their mates, but Labour could. Overhauling the tax system so that unproductive wealth is taxed more heavily than innovation and enterprise would be an incredible boost to the economy, and to fairness.

I don't think for a moment they'll do that, sadly, but [Keegan mode] I would LOVE it, just love it, if they did!!

[Agent ZigZag]

Lovely informative post working woman.

I met a chap in Richmond, London a few years ago who was a major importer of  Cashmere. He explained to me that whilst an excellent product for a dry cold climate Wool from British sheep was second to none as well as the product s that use to be made here.

i like to wear British made wool socks throughout the year that vary in gauge and blend according to the season as they wick sweat betterthan cheap foreign imports. Whilst they may have cost more to make I invariably found that they retailed at the same price as a similar yet inferior import. This is what I could not get my head around is to how our governements have not-protected our industries. Have we been sold off by our own governments over the years to a banking system and elite cabal at our expense

. Every time I go up north it is so sad to listen to any old boy who would explain what used to be produced in the town. Invariably they are also very proud. Today we have a fragmented and awfully planned townscape where once the factory, houses (and community) once stood their is now a Tesco’s along with a stupid winding dual carriageway and cycle lane that no one uses.

[Long time lurking]

41 minutes ago, Stuey said:

They were trading according to expectations. I'm not convinced it means they drove the BoE's decision. 

Nope they were not "trading" they were bidding on what they would except in return for the money they invest ,when purchasing said bounds from the BOE 

 

[Stuey]

8 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Nope they were not "trading" they were bidding on what they would except in return for the money they invest ,when purchasing said bounds from the BOE 

 

There's two counterparties in each trade  so there was also an offering side.

[Jay]

3 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

One question that has always puzzled me on this thread is that if we are to re tool who are we going to sell these goods to and do we have a strong competitive advantage over our competitors with access to cheap reliable energy. Will our goods be sold to the international market or purely an internal market whereby the velocity of money just circulates around under a new homegrown consumption market.

 

 

 

My understanding is that even now, uk is fantastic at niche engineering and world class..there will be customers says in the Middle East if we can deliver..

[Axeman123]

3 hours ago, Butthead said:

Next year we are virtually certain to have a Labour government, but they will be inheriting an absolute clusterfuck of an economy.

That is uncharted territory.

There is reason to beleive there are competent people behind the curtain able to motivate MPs to action etc when things look systemicaly unstable (eg BJ finally getting his election as the country was IMO starting to look ungovernable). Maybe Labour are going to get a tap on the shoulder on the first day, and a personality transplant to welfare reformers etc. Maybe just as "only Nixon could go to China" then only Labour could do the painfull reforms by clothing them in compassion and fairness to hardworking etc.

A typical tax-and-spend Labour govt would finish this country off in six months flat IMO. We have to hope the impossibility of selling gilts under that circumstance will wake them up first. The worst case scenario OTOH is Labour doubling down and nationalising private assets etc. It is actually quite worrying.

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Capitol (self-sustaining) and Social (shared-endeavour) cohesion. I do like the sound of that.

Antithesis of Blairism, which is capital globally mobile coupled with workforce mobility both internal and international which is kryptonite to social cohesion. Blairism (like Thatcherism tbf) could only have occurred in a very specific point in time, which has sailed into the history books.

3 hours ago, JMD said:

But I bet our useless shortsighted polos would condemn it as being too last-century or sounding far too much like being an out-moded 'national purpose'. 

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Forte mentions people needing to be carried along with a belief that there is a destination for this country, but that tragically there is no destination. Is he alluding to that 'National Purpose' thing I mentioned?    ...Now I think about it, perhaps it could be the name for a new political party, although maybe it sounds just a bit too right-wing!

The secret National purpose of Blairism, to turn us into a loosely defined collection of globally fungible economic consumption and production units, could never be spoken aloud. As a result Blairism pretends that there is no ideology just what works and wooly aspirational principles.

Thatcher's home-owning democracy is probably the last time we had a clear vision. Sadly reds and blues are all Blairite now, so Reform or whatever are the only possible source of one.

What is the betting that the legacy media would find a font to use when abbreviating the National Purpose party as NP, so it looks like NF, just like The Brexit Party being abbreviated as BXP (so lefties could tell people "its the BNP really but they put the X instead to try and fool people!").

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The Tories are finished,but Labour will also go the same way unless they really go back to why they exist.Its that everyone should be able to build a life through work,and the state is there to enable that to happen and provide the scaffold those lives and that work is built on.

That is the kind of vision for compassionate cuts that only Labour could give. Fingers crossed but will they actually?

2 hours ago, working woman said:

Until the mid-90's we still made most of our clothes here in the UK, plus all the components - threads, buttons, zips, elastics, hangers, packaging etc etc.  Then during and after the 90's recession, it all went abroad.

There is an arguement that is the missing peice of the puzzle on benefits; some people are happy to get their head down with a fairly practical task in front of them (no snobbery intended). Those sorts of jobs have nearly all been exported, and not the people that would have been doing them 30 years ago are suited to other modern jobs like call centres etc. Part of a Labour manifesto would be the value in people here doing the work outside the pure economics of it, for the individual and their community.

Much of the more coherent historic criticism of Thatcher from the Left draws on those themes; I have heard her described as a deeply unsophisticated person that understood the price of everything and the value of nothing, who put profits above communities etc. The historical political theory is there within Labour's archives, can they repackage it for a modern audience?

[Pip321]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Couldnt agree more.However,there is a tiny tiny hope.If your reading this Rachel Reeves MP.I saw Rachel talk a few times and followed her with great interest as she started out and climbed the ranks.I thought her the great hope of a real patriotic left Labour government.She seemed to understand welfare was a disaster,mostly for the working class themselves.She seemed to really get it,and i thought could end up becoming a legend,who reformed welfare,turned it back to a safety net,but at the same time helped everyone into work,and supported them doing it,rather than just dump them.Lately though she has been coming out with bullshit over and over.She seems to be a different person.My question is simple.Is she just playing to the gallery now and remains that great hope she once was?.Or is she really a sell out to the woke etc.If she remains the original i would love to work for her ,and id give her my roadmap work for free and continue to work for free.The BOE when i met them were clueless,no hope at all they will deliver any time soon,i wouldnt even waste my time with them again.

I know il likely be the only one on here who saw that huge potential in Rachel,but i did,and it really might come down to if she follows through on those foundation beliefs she had,rather than the crap coming out now.

Im not discounting a Labour government getting it right,but their green crap,taxes and woke rubbish seems to be clouding the chances of it happening.The country is in crisis,the biggest ever,Labour have stepped up before in the past,but they need to really sit back and consider everything.They can not allow open borders and woke rubbish to dictate policy.The Tories are finished,but Labour will also go the same way unless they really go back to why they exist.Its that everyone should be able to build a life through work,and the state is there to enable that to happen and provide the scaffold those lives and that work is built on.

Rachel has the ability ,she needs to go back and remember herself.

 

I knew you were a bloody leftie like me…..😂

Joking apart this is exactly what I mean when I think about ‘a left’…..whilst it’s about being of the people, by the people, for the people it’s certainly NOT about one hard working half of the population supporting a non productive other half. That’s just unjust  

Working class has lost its meaning……if you are poor and on benefits you are not working class, you are poor. And if you are genuinely unable to help yourselves you are a deserving poor…..and if you are able to help yourself but don’t then you are nothing, you are hungry and homeless. And if you work hard, it’s okay to be rewarded and wealthy. 

I am not such whether the Tories are anything at the moment…..a bit of wokey wanky pretend ‘be kind’ socialism but with their noses in the trough. And labour I think could be even worse.

Keep the red flag flying comrade 😉😂😂

 

[JMD]

@Cattle Prod does this guy's thesis make good sense? Ie That greater amounts of future oil supply will come from new off-shore drilling? It seems to make sense particularly given the new multi-polar world we are entering, and especially so for the West if the ME countries begin favouring selling to the BRICS nations.

Am unsure about the investment risk/return aspect of the article - but of course that is more for individuals to personally decide upon. However would you be able CP to comment on which major oilies have historically been the best capability in successfully doing off-shore drilling projects, or perhaps which oilies have secured good potential off-shore drilling rights with foreign governments?

 

...oops - apologies, will need to attempt to re-post later once I've located correct link!!

 

Edited June 26, 2023 by JMD

[The Bear of Doom]

8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Wait till someone tells them there's not enough copper for a grid rebuild either. Then I guess they'll announce a full nuclear rebuild...till someone tells them the uranium is all contracted. I have my piece of both.

Good job they use aluminium for the main grid cables. Just as well you don't need lots of electricity to smelt aluminium, and that the three largest producers aren't China, Russia and India! 

At the Car Boot Sale on Sunday, there was a seller who had a large bag-for-life carrier bags full of Brass Candlesticks which was selling for £1.00 each, maybe I should have bought them to weigh in at some point in the near future when copper prices have risen  

[Long time lurking]

34 minutes ago, Stuey said:

There's two counterparties in each trade  so there was also an offering side.

Correct the offering side was the BOE ,but it`s not a fixed price and the price kept going up to over 5%

I`m sure you will say it`s just a coincidence the BOE`s base rate was raised to the same level a few days latter

 

 

[Stuey]

11 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Correct the offering side was the BOE ,but it`s not a fixed price and the price kept going up to over 5%

I`m sure you will say it`s just a coincidence the BOE`s base rate was raised to the same level a few days latter

 

 

I'm just trying to decipher whether the BoE has more influence on the markets or vice versa. 

[ashestoashes]

7 minutes ago, Stuey said:

I'm just trying to decipher whether the BoE has more influence on the markets or vice versa. 

they used to say the bond markets set the interest rates