Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[Plan-b]

7 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

They can't stop it the young aren't replacing themselves, haven't been since 1973.

Because TPTB have made having kids an extremely expensive experience together with living costs in general, at least for those that pay their own way.

The scrounging classes have turned having kids into a business venture thanks to TPTB yet again.

They then import millions and pay them to have kids.

If you explained that to someone with no prior experience for the first time they wouldn't believe you.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

to me it seems the obvious/best solution, or am I missing something?

A recession is more politically palatable than stopping the great replacement - at least partly that will be because the wealthy already know exactly how to make money off a recession.

[Wight Flight]

25 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Because TPTB have made having kids an extremely expensive experience together with living costs in general, at least for those that pay their own way.

The scrounging classes have turned having kids into a business venture thanks to TPTB yet again.

They then import millions and pay them to have kids.

If you explained that to someone with no prior experience for the first time they wouldn't believe you.

I think if you did a survey of the net wealth of dosbodders and broke it down in to those with and those without kids the outcome would be quite stark.

[Red Debt Redemption]

On 23/06/2023 at 09:46, M S E Refugee said:

When I'm in the works van driving round watching my Town turning to shit I'm becoming more convinced that I need to leave the UK.

Me and the Wife are hopefully going to be scouting out property in Poland this August.

Might get reduced house price if you wait until they join the war. Might get mobilised as well though.. 

[M S E Refugee]

51 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Might get reduced house price if you wait until they join the war. Might get mobilised as well though.. 

That's the only downside, although I could stay in the UK and get caught up in the Jihad.

Edited June 25, 2023 by M S E Refugee

[Bobthebuilder]

12 hours ago, Stuey said:

Just maybe you could learn from others too. 

Sounds like you want your opinion to be rated, without putting any effort in.

You should start your own thread, call it "Credit reflation and the deflation cycle to come" or something catchy like that.

[Cattle Prod]

10 hours ago, Stuey said:

It's not that I think they will. It is that it has already happened. 

Just a few months and it will feed into bills.

Sorry for the axis

 

If that’s UK natural gas, you’ll notice it’s settling at 2x the recent 5 year average, after the warmest winter in 40 years. Oil is settling above what the government calls a windfall level. This is just an oscillation in a long term secular trend of higher energy prices, which will drive a secular inflation.

A market crash or recession will be a blip in this trend.

[Agent ZigZag]

Good post cattle. This is why the oil majors form the backbone of my isa and sipp. With significant profits made I have refused to sell profits into other asset classes with better yields. Energy is the world economy. Any significant falls will present another window to accumulate more

[lid]

I'm coming round to the idea that we need to go old school

Get the mines open for a start 

And get some old school leisure pursuits going as well 

'Grotesquely dangerous' playground kids thought was 'class'

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/nostalgia/grotesquely-dangerous-playground-kids-thought-27160389#ICID=Android_EchoNewsApp_AppShare

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/merseysides-back-front-ski-slope-17597070

 

Toughen these snowflake kids up for the hard times ahead 

Edited June 25, 2023 by lid
No rainbow flags on those turrets

[sancho panza]

Here it comes....

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/nine-10-mid-size-firms-210000939.html

Nine in 10 mid-sized businesses say they are curbing their growth plans because they are struggling to get hold of enough money, a survey suggests.

A questionnaire sent to 500 business leaders every other month also found that around one in four (24%) are scaling back their business or making staff redundant.

The survey, from accountancy firm BDO, found that 91% of the companies questioned said difficulty getting capital means growth plans are being rethought.

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, lid said:

I'm coming round to the idea that we need to go old school

Get the mines open for a start 

And get some old school leisure pursuits going as well 

'Grotesquely dangerous' playground kids thought was 'class'

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/nostalgia/grotesquely-dangerous-playground-kids-thought-27160389#ICID=Android_EchoNewsApp_AppShare

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/merseysides-back-front-ski-slope-17597070

 

Toughen these snowflake kids up for the hard times ahead 

Yes let them scavenge for scraps look at us at work scavenging for food it’s shocking that we’ve sunk so low .might take some home yet .

[Stuey]

7 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

If that’s UK natural gas, you’ll notice it’s settling at 2x the recent 5 year average, after the warmest winter in 40 years. Oil is settling above what the government calls a windfall level. This is just an oscillation in a long term secular trend of higher energy prices, which will drive a secular inflation.

A market crash or recession will be a blip in this trend.

Erm.

Just some evidence of the price collapse - sorry for the two screenshots as the window wouldn't shrink to fit.

 

 

[Bilbo]

At last the truth is coming out. But I would say low interest/printing from the banking crash not just from lockdown.

Free to read.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/26/britain-inflation-crisis-blame-covid-bailouts-bank-england/

 

[jamtomorrow]

6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The survey, from accountancy firm BDO, found that 91% of the companies questioned said difficulty getting capital means growth plans are being rethought.

Interesting to see you post this @sancho panza while I was thinking about the question upthread about "what does a successful economy look like?".

Top of my list would be self-sustaining capital formation.

The UK has struggled with this for decades. DB's concept of an economic "backbone" falls somewhat into this category, although it would be good to have any formation whatsoever these days, let alone self-sustaining - see BritishVolt, for example.

Capital formation is both the cause and the symptom - not only does it sow the seeds of productive employment and economic sovereignty, it also feeds that intangible sense of shared endeavour. Of a country that's "doing something".

Then contrast that with the decades of malaise and economic autophagy where we've gradually consumed our little-remaining productive capital. A country that's not "doing something" - see the bennies bill.

Obsession of UK elites over FDI three *decades* ago was a sure sign all was not well here. Early 90s it seemed like a minister popped up on TV every other week to sing the praises of some multi-national or other building a factory here or there. Whereas that was in fact the writing on the wall.

Edited June 26, 2023 by jamtomorrow

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Here it comes....

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/nine-10-mid-size-firms-210000939.html

Nine in 10 mid-sized businesses say they are curbing their growth plans because they are struggling to get hold of enough money, a survey suggests.

A questionnaire sent to 500 business leaders every other month also found that around one in four (24%) are scaling back their business or making staff redundant.

The survey, from accountancy firm BDO, found that 91% of the companies questioned said difficulty getting capital means growth plans are being rethought.

The huge worry i have is that everything is going as planned,but by now i expected government to of being diverting fiscal spending from consumption in bennies etc to production,but they have dont nothing.Imagine the fact the state is so big now that we were heading for a disaster even if the private sector could grow at trend.In most reflation cycles we would be at the point where companies were starting to invest to capture the inflation.Instead,due to tax,nobody wanting to work ,government regulation etc they are not bothering.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Bilbo said:

At last the truth is coming out. But I would say low interest/printing from the banking crash not just from lockdown.

Free to read.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/26/britain-inflation-crisis-blame-covid-bailouts-bank-england/

 

Notice the date he mentions 27,pretty close to where we predicted the cycle would end (28) back when inflation was a twinkle in Baileys eye.

[One percent]

1 hour ago, Bilbo said:

At last the truth is coming out. But I would say low interest/printing from the banking crash not just from lockdown.

Free to read.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/26/britain-inflation-crisis-blame-covid-bailouts-bank-england/

 

Has that bloke eaten all the banks?  Is that the problem?

[geordie_lurch]

47 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The huge worry i have is that everything is going as planned,but by now i expected government to of being diverting fiscal spending from consumption in bennies etc to production,but they have dont nothing.Imagine the fact the state is so big now that we were heading for a disaster even if the private sector could grow at trend.In most reflation cycles we would be at the point where companies were starting to invest to capture the inflation.Instead,due to tax,nobody wanting to work ,government regulation etc they are not bothering.

Yep and this is the only sort of ridiculous projects & investments we ever hear about - unrealistic stuff to hit net zero targets that will make everyone poorer where the companies being asked to invest are quite rightfully stalling due to not knowing which taxes or regulations will change next

"The exact shape of the future system is unclear. But the direction of travel is the “electrification” of the economy using clean energy, with wind turbines, electric cars and heat pumps taking the place of coal-fired power stations, petrol cars and gas boilers. This could require more than 460,000km of new onshore electricity cables by 2050, transporting up to 200 per cent more power from far more diverse and complex sources, according to the top end of industry and government projections. The onshore network alone could require total investment of as much as £350bn by 2050, the government has said. “It’s mind-boggling,” says Sir John Armitt, chair of the UK’s National Infrastructure Commission, of the scale and pace of the new infrastructure required. “These are big challenges.”

Full non paywalled FT article: https://archive.is/T45XI

Edited June 26, 2023 by geordie_lurch

[Errol]

6 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yep and this is the only sort of ridiculous projects & investments we ever hear about - unrealistic net zero targets that will make everyone poorer

"The exact shape of the future system is unclear. But the direction of travel is the “electrification” of the economy using clean energy, with wind turbines, electric cars and heat pumps taking the place of coal-fired power stations, petrol cars and gas boilers. This could require more than 460,000km of new onshore electricity cables by 2050, transporting up to 200 per cent more power from far more diverse and complex sources, according to the top end of industry and government projections. The onshore network alone could require total investment of as much as £350bn by 2050, the government has said. “It’s mind-boggling,” says Sir John Armitt, chair of the UK’s National Infrastructure Commission, of the scale and pace of the new infrastructure required. “These are big challenges.”

Full non paywalled FT article: https://archive.is/T45XI

Obviously not happening. We will still be using gas and oil in 2050.

[King Penda]

49 minutes ago, One percent said:

Has that bloke eaten all the banks?  Is that the problem?

Don’t be childish he has caught a dose of inflation 

[King Penda]

56 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Notice the date he mentions 27,pretty close to where we predicted the cycle would end (28) back when inflation was a twinkle in Baileys eye.

I’m going to need a lot more babywipes  if interest rates are going to stay high for another 4 years .

[One percent]

30 minutes ago, Errol said:

Obviously not happening. We will still be using gas and oil in 2050.

Nope, you will be eating dust, huddled around a candle for warmth. 

[M S E Refugee]

6 minutes ago, One percent said:

Nope, you will be eating dust, huddled around a candle for warmth. 

And if it gets really cold you may have to light the candle.

[jamtomorrow]

53 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yep and this is the only sort of ridiculous projects & investments we ever hear about - unrealistic stuff to hit net zero targets that will make everyone poorer where the companies being asked to invest are quite rightfully stalling due to not knowing which taxes or regulations will change next

"The exact shape of the future system is unclear. But the direction of travel is the “electrification” of the economy using clean energy, with wind turbines, electric cars and heat pumps taking the place of coal-fired power stations, petrol cars and gas boilers. This could require more than 460,000km of new onshore electricity cables by 2050, transporting up to 200 per cent more power from far more diverse and complex sources, according to the top end of industry and government projections. The onshore network alone could require total investment of as much as £350bn by 2050, the government has said. “It’s mind-boggling,” says Sir John Armitt, chair of the UK’s National Infrastructure Commission, of the scale and pace of the new infrastructure required. “These are big challenges.”

Full non paywalled FT article: https://archive.is/T45XI

That tells me very little - the scale of civilisational infrastructure is always mind-boggling. The answer is always "It's a lot of stuff" - yeah, no shit.

Break that 460,000km down over the population, it works out less than a yard of cable per household per year up to 2050. This in a country where the middle classes are still habitually whazzing thousands per household per year on mindless discretionary spend.

It's not unrealistic or unachievable, just unrealistic and unachievable in a country that can't divert a fraction of its consumption into capital formation.

[Cattle Prod]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yep and this is the only sort of ridiculous projects & investments we ever hear about - unrealistic stuff to hit net zero targets that will make everyone poorer where the companies being asked to invest are quite rightfully stalling due to not knowing which taxes or regulations will change next

"The exact shape of the future system is unclear. But the direction of travel is the “electrification” of the economy using clean energy, with wind turbines, electric cars and heat pumps taking the place of coal-fired power stations, petrol cars and gas boilers. This could require more than 460,000km of new onshore electricity cables by 2050, transporting up to 200 per cent more power from far more diverse and complex sources, according to the top end of industry and government projections. The onshore network alone could require total investment of as much as £350bn by 2050, the government has said. “It’s mind-boggling,” says Sir John Armitt, chair of the UK’s National Infrastructure Commission, of the scale and pace of the new infrastructure required. “These are big challenges.”

Full non paywalled FT article: https://archive.is/T45XI

Wait till someone tells them there's not enough copper for a grid rebuild either. Then I guess they'll announce a full nuclear rebuild...till someone tells them the uranium is all contracted. I have my piece of both.