Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[Calcutta]

4 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Counterfeiters of US dollars were getting better and better at defeating security measures but ran into an obstacle when the fed introduced special paper containing special fibres. The fibre whatsis could not be faked. 

Unfortunately there was a small flaw in the fed plan. They used the same paper for all denominations. So the counterfeiters simply bought loads of real one dollar bills and minced them up to provide authentic paper for their fake 100 dollar bills 

Found some fake $100 bills with 'cien dollares' written on them in Bolivia. Dumb fucks didn't even think that was strange.

[Axeman123]

29 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Counterfeiters of US dollars were getting better and better at defeating security measures but ran into an obstacle when the fed introduced special paper containing special fibres. The fibre whatsis could not be faked. 

Unfortunately there was a small flaw in the fed plan. They used the same paper for all denominations. So the counterfeiters simply bought loads of real one dollar bills and minced them up to provide authentic paper for their fake 100 dollar bills 

Actually features as a plot point in the first Jack Reacher novel, although in that case they were bleaching them.

[christh]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I like DS Smith ,i sold them at £3.59,but started to buy back this week.They have too much debt like almost everybody,but are very well ran.They can take back and recycle all of their products and do take a very large percentage back.They should gain over time as the US and Europe onshore,more boxed there instead of in China.The industry has consolidated down nicely and although cyclical ,suits the cycle.I was going to start buying International Paper,but started back on DS Smith when they fell.UK stocks are suffering from the UK itself being a basket case,even though the companies we focus on make most of their money outside of the UK.

 

"I used to work for a cardboard box company, until it folded." - Eric Morecambe.

I've owned DS Smith in the past, top company, supply Amazon, etc. just my worry aside from the debt is how packaging companies struggle in a recession. Also their management may be a bit questionable as they cancelled final divi in 2020 despite still being profitable...

Still, the bennies brigade will continue to buy shite via HotUKDeals, so maybe there's some life yet.

[Calcutta]

What happened to BP's cut of Rosneft in the end? 

[Castlevania]

12 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

What happened to BP's cut of Rosneft in the end? 

Still own it as far as I recall. Refusing to accept dividends.

[BurntBread]

11 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Still own it as far as I recall. Refusing to accept dividends.

Or, to underline the lunacy, "voluntarily donating some of the dividends to the Russian state, because [fill in logic here]."

[leonardratso]

dont understand that telegraph article, how is his interest only mortgage on £1.4M cottage only paying interest on the remaining £415K of the loan? did i imisread it or miss something?

ah (415K * 1.86%)/12 = £643 ~ £645 a month, so its value is 1.4M but he bought it for 415K is that right?

Mind you 1.4M looks a bit kite flyying - which i suppose is apt for a cocained up whisky sloshing horse buggering airline pilot.

Edited June 24, 2023 by leonardratso

[Cattle Prod]

On 23/06/2023 at 20:27, M S E Refugee said:

Is the HMRC running out of cash?

Something weird is going on, I’m getting basically begging letters from them.

[Bobthebuilder]

24 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Something weird is going on, I’m getting basically begging letters from them.

I have a mate who is self employed, fell out with HMRC years ago, refuses to do a tax return just sends them what he knows he owes them every year. They just accept it, he never has a problem with them, they are a bunch of arseholes.

[M S E Refugee]

28 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Something weird is going on, I’m getting basically begging letters from them.

I have heard a few people talking about buying extra National Insurance contributions for the state Pension.

The Government have extended the deadline to 2025, it makes you wonder if the Government are desperate for cash.

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I have heard a few people talking about buying extra National Insurance contributions for the state Pension.

The Government have extended the deadline to 2025, it makes you wonder if the Government are desperate for cash.

They are desperate, its the only reason they have extended it, guarantee they will not pay out from it though, lying lizards snake oil salesman that they are,

They are lying to you.

[Plan-b]

3 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I have heard a few people talking about buying extra National Insurance contributions for the state Pension.

The Government have extended the deadline to 2025, it makes you wonder if the Government are desperate for cash.

This gets mentioned frequently in the world of contracting. I always say the same don't bother paying National Insurance and don't do the catch up your missing years 'opportunity' the revenue present from time to time. You will be worse off if you do is always my answer.

After a brief explanation they go fuck me cheers for that.

 

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

They are desperate, its the only reason they have extended it, guarantee they will not pay out from it though, lying lizards snake oil salesman that they are,

They are lying to you.

I heard people at work talking about and thought exactly the same as you.

[ashestoashes]

48 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Something weird is going on, I’m getting basically begging letters from them.

their staff seem to have downed tools

[BadAlchemy]

HMRC can't be that hard up. I worked a few extra days by mistake last tax tear and they had £72 out of me. That should have been a nice little bounce for them compared to previous years. 

[King of Fools]

15 minutes ago, BadAlchemy said:

HMRC can't be that hard up. I worked a few extra days by mistake last tax tear and they had £72 out of me. That should have been a nice little bounce for them compared to previous years. 

Ah come on mate. That will only buy a couple of lunches at Pret. Do better.

[Chewing Grass]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Something weird is going on, I’m getting basically begging letters from them.

I deliberately cut my hours as it isn't worth being rich (earning over the never moving threshold) so the fuckers are rummaging down the back of the Sofa for my refunds, if I filled my tax return in now they would owe me (again) for last year.

They got zero payment on account this year.

So yes, tax receipts are probably tanking but it is a lagging indicator.

I'm sure there are others refusing to play their game.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

It would be hilarious if tax receipts are well below expectations. Obviously there would be consequences as the bond market would puke a bit and interest rates would go higher sooner. Going to take it choking on the vomit before the Government cuts spending. It needs to be proved beyond doubt that spending cannot be afforded. Only then will it be cut and adult conversations had. "Disappointing" tax receipts are a necessary first step.

[BadAlchemy]

Like the saying goes , if they are going to pretend to run a developed country/economy (as opposed to the 3rd world shit hole they have actually created) then I will pretend to pay taxes etc. I can stay rational longer than they can pretend they are solvent.

[THE SOUP DRAGON]

Stopped contributing to the madness in 09/22. Am owed approx 1300 as PAYE rebate, From what info I can get through their website I have fuck all chance getting it back until 11/23 when they have completed their calculations. That's at least £130 quid lost to inflation while they sit on my money. 

Used to fill in a self assessment back in the day and to be fair things were sorted within a couple of months always within a tenner either way. They have removed that option now for most people, part of me suspects that a fair few people will be caught out paying incorrect amounts and then get hammered with fines up to seven years after the event. That's an unintended "windfall" for them due to incompetence and doing fuck all whist sitting in the garden. 

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, Plan-b said:

This gets mentioned frequently in the world of contracting. I always say the same don't bother paying National Insurance and don't do the catch up your missing years 'opportunity' the revenue present from time to time. You will be worse off if you do is always my answer.

After a brief explanation they go fuck me cheers for that.

 

I cant see them doing a state pension like todays 20 years from now. If it still exists it will be means tested I reckon. So in case it doesnt exist the prudent need a private pension, which ensures if it does exist they'll be means tested out of the state pension. Fuck Rishi Sunak and fuck the taxes he doesn't pay. 

[Cattle Prod]

1 hour ago, ashestoashes said:

their staff seem to have downed tools

Now that you say it, the letter sounded like it was written by a bot. 
 

Live shot of HMRC drone pen:

[Cattle Prod]

40 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

It would be hilarious if tax receipts are well below expectations. Obviously there would be consequences as the bond market would puke a bit and interest rates would go higher sooner. Going to take it choking on the vomit before the Government cuts spending. It needs to be proved beyond doubt that spending cannot be afforded. Only then will it be cut and adult conversations had. "Disappointing" tax receipts are a necessary first step.

Vat should capture inflation, but I’m certain income tax is way down. If the top 1% of taxpayers pay most of it, every day I hear of another one of those downing tools entirely. Not even bothering with part time, just sod this.

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Vat should capture inflation, but I’m certain income tax is way down. If the top 1% of taxpayers pay most of it, every day I hear of another one of those downing tools entirely. Not even bothering with part time, just sod this.

VAT does capture inflation,but the problem is lots of the inflation is in zero or low VAT areas,food and energy.I have been working on some new data sets where im trying to work out what level wage increases are needed to cover bennie and pension increases.For instance £2k bennie increase for a single mother,needs a £7k pay increase on a worker.If a £33k worker gets 6% its only a £650 increase in tax so for each bennie claim you need 3 workers to fund the increase (thats just bennies).Iv got quite a lot of data now so i should be able to get close to what the average wage increase needs to be across all workers just to fund bennie increases.

Edited June 24, 2023 by DurhamBorn

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 i should be able to get close to what the average wage increase needs to be across all workers just to fund bennie increases.

I don't do numbers but I think I see where it's going