Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 2)

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Labour have a 5 point plan.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/homeowners-should-able-switch-mortgages-30293231

1. Borrowers will be able to switch to interest-only

2. Borrowers will be able to increase mortgage length

3. Borrowers can undo No.s 1&2

4. Six months before lender can start a repossession

5. FCA to advise credit ratings should be unaffected

 

Those are all in place.

"Borrowers can find the answer to eternal youth"...and so extend there mortgage term to infinity?

Edited June 22, 2023 by MrXxxx

[Rare Bear]

1 minute ago, MrXxxx said:

"Borrowers can find the answer to eternal youth"...and so extend there mortgage term to infinity?

Even assuming the borrower has found the secret of eternal youth and can extend the term to infinity, the interest rate sets the payment. The payment cannot be less than the interest rate.

[MrXxxx]

Thought I would just leave this here [https://www.niesr.ac.uk/news/1-2-million-uk-households-insolvent-year-direct-result-higher-mortgage-repayments]

 

Summary: With interest rates rising at their fastest pace since the Bank of England gained independence...the projected impact of this shock on households will be as follows:

• 1.2 million households (4%) will run out of savings this year as a result of higher mortgage repayments: taking the total proportion of insolvent households to around 7.8 million (28%)

• The rising repayments will cost households with mortgages a total of £1bn per month, or £12bn per year: worth around 0.3 per cent of GDP

• Monthly mortgage repayments will rise by nearly 50 per cent on average: this rise is above typical stress-tests households are subjected to when applying for a mortgage

• Fixed-rate monthly mortgage repayments will rise from around £700 to £1,000 on average: applying to nearly 2m households when needing to remortgage

• Variable-rate monthly mortgage repayments will rise from around £450 to £700: applying to 1.5m households on variable-rate mortgages

• The largest impact will be in Wales and the North East: 6% of households in these regions will be insolvent as a direct result of rising mortgage repayments.

[reformed nice guy]

3 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Thought I would just leave this here [https://www.niesr.ac.uk/news/1-2-million-uk-households-insolvent-year-direct-result-higher-mortgage-repayments]

• Monthly mortgage repayments will rise by nearly 50 per cent on average: this rise is above typical stress-tests households are subjected to when applying for a mortgage

Interesting link, thanks for sharing.

The part about stress tests is interesting. The graph following that part suggests that people were using their savings BEFORE the rate rises began to increase mortgage rates.

Bank of England base rate was still 0.1% in January 2022, so something is missing

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

Interesting link, thanks for sharing.

The part about stress tests is interesting. The graph following that part suggests that people were using their savings BEFORE the rate rises began to increase mortgage rates.

Bank of England base rate was still 0.1% in January 2022, so something is missing

Won't higher savings rates encourage saving?

 

 

It's like the banker corporation front men want you to work and hand everything to the rich 

[XswampyX]

23 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Won't higher savings rates encourage saving?

No.

Imagine saving £10,000 a year and seeing house prices go up £20,000 per year. 

Or...

Imagine after 10 YEARS and saving £100,000 in the bank to have it's purchasing power reduced to £90,000 in a year and you got £3,000 interest that you had to pay tax on. WTF! 

Or...

Imagine saving £5,000 this year to spend when you are 70 V's using it to borrow £50,000 and spending it today.

Where are all these 'savers' ?

At home with the lights turned off, living in rags and eating gruel.

Where are all the 'borrowers' ?

On the T.V. living it large, on facebook and twitter. Spreading their 'News'.

[HousePriceMania]

7 minutes ago, XswampyX said:

No.

Imagine saving £10,000 a year and seeing house prices go up £20,000 per year. 

Or...

Imagine after 10 YEARS and saving £100,000 in the bank to have it's purchasing power reduced to £90,000 in a year and you got £3,000 interest that you had to pay tax on. WTF! 

Or...

Imagine saving £5,000 this year to spend when you are 70 V's using it to borrow £50,000 and spending it today.

Where are all these 'savers' ?

At home with the lights turned off, living in rags and eating gruel.

Where are all the 'borrowers' ?

On the T.V. living it large, on facebook and twitter. Spreading their 'News'.

Imagine you buy a house with all your savings, the bubble implodes you loose everything you go bankrupt and you end up on the streets, meanwhile compound interest makes you richer and richer and richer.

 

If you fix yours savings at a high rate when inflation falls you become much wealthier.

Learn to add up, it'll stand you in good stead 

 

You sound worried swampy...good, your kind deserve to lose everything, imagine that 

Edited June 22, 2023 by HousePriceMania

[wherebee]

9 hours ago, Stuey said:

They will hold in August and cut by end of winter IMO 

I think you are right, @Stuey - they will move heaven and earth to get the 'rate cut' headline.

 

But I see nothing at all which tells me that things will get better/cheaper for the west.  I've travelled a lot the past year for work, and every asian country I have been through the one thing that has struck me is how much they have rumbled the western fiat scam and don't want to play any more.  Russia and China are offering them a new path.

I was in a room where a yank stood up and lectured a bunch of local government and banker types on how great the west was and how far the country he was standing in had to go on womens rights, climate change, etc.  Five years ago, the room would have listened, because they wanted the free shite you got for playing along.  This time, I was watching the audience, and they had the expression of parents at a school play where you know it's shit and will ignore everything once you leave the room.  I had side conversations where it was obvious that the power dynamics had shifted.  They still like Australians, because we dig stuff up and sell it - real stuff.

Inflation is, as DB identified a long time ago, the result of the rest of the west producing fuck all and consuming a shitload.  The rest of the world is, I am convinced, aware of this now and will be making sure they get paid properly for energy, food, and other stuff.  That means inflation in the west.  End of.

How do you think inflation comes down permanently in the new world order?

[VeryMeanReversion]

2 hours ago, wherebee said:

I think you are right, @Stuey - they will move heaven and earth to get the 'rate cut' headline.

 

But I see nothing at all which tells me that things will get better/cheaper for the west.  I've travelled a lot the past year for work, and every asian country I have been through the one thing that has struck me is how much they have rumbled the western fiat scam and don't want to play any more.  Russia and China are offering them a new path.

I was in a room where a yank stood up and lectured a bunch of local government and banker types on how great the west was and how far the country he was standing in had to go on womens rights, climate change, etc.  Five years ago, the room would have listened, because they wanted the free shite you got for playing along.  This time, I was watching the audience, and they had the expression of parents at a school play where you know it's shit and will ignore everything once you leave the room.  I had side conversations where it was obvious that the power dynamics had shifted.  They still like Australians, because we dig stuff up and sell it - real stuff.

Inflation is, as DB identified a long time ago, the result of the rest of the west producing fuck all and consuming a shitload.  The rest of the world is, I am convinced, aware of this now and will be making sure they get paid properly for energy, food, and other stuff.  That means inflation in the west.  End of.

How do you think inflation comes down permanently in the new world order?

The funny thing is that milfy says exactly the same thing, just in his typically offensive way.

If BRICS-world can create a trustworthy, non-fiat currency then the west is in big trouble. If they can't, everyone is in trouble.

Economies run on trust which is dissipating rapidly.

 

[nirvana]

16 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

been a quicker climb to 5% than I'd thought, question is whether this is the peak?

Last night FED signalled more rises incoming.....UK poodle dog will just follow....then it'll be an even bigger shithole to live in 

[nirvana]

13 hours ago, Stuey said:

They will hold in August and cut by end of winter IMO 

Powell says you're wrong bruv....he was on tele last night....keep up at the back 

[Stuey]

2 minutes ago, nirvana said:

Powell says you're wrong bruv....he was on tele last night....keep up at the back 

They'll talk tough through the "pause"

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Stuey said:

They'll talk tough through the "pause"

Talk shite more like....but yeah TWT

Gold dumped bro! Go on, load up on dem gold chocolate coins, you know you want to 

[MrXxxx]

6 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Won't higher savings rates encourage saving?

 

 

It's like the banker corporation front men want you to work and hand everything to the rich 

You are assuming that people will have enough left at the end of the month to save. With food and energy price inflation the way it is at the moment [especially the latter as we go towards winter], and the fact that the government/BoE don't want wage rises in line with inflation [as that is currently the main driver of inflation] then the majority working or not won't be in a position to save.

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, wherebee said:

I think you are right, @Stuey - they will move heaven and earth to get the 'rate cut' headline.

 

But I see nothing at all which tells me that things will get better/cheaper for the west.  I've travelled a lot the past year for work, and every asian country I have been through the one thing that has struck me is how much they have rumbled the western fiat scam and don't want to play any more.  Russia and China are offering them a new path.

I was in a room where a yank stood up and lectured a bunch of local government and banker types on how great the west was and how far the country he was standing in had to go on womens rights, climate change, etc.  Five years ago, the room would have listened, because they wanted the free shite you got for playing along.  This time, I was watching the audience, and they had the expression of parents at a school play where you know it's shit and will ignore everything once you leave the room.  I had side conversations where it was obvious that the power dynamics had shifted.  They still like Australians, because we dig stuff up and sell it - real stuff.

Inflation is, as DB identified a long time ago, the result of the rest of the west producing fuck all and consuming a shitload.  The rest of the world is, I am convinced, aware of this now and will be making sure they get paid properly for energy, food, and other stuff.  That means inflation in the west.  End of.

How do you think inflation comes down permanently in the new world order?

I think points made in this video chime well with the points you are making:

 

3 hours ago, VeryMeanReversion said:

The funny thing is that milfy says exactly the same thing, just in his typically offensive way.

If BRICS-world can create a trustworthy, non-fiat currency then the west is in big trouble. If they can't, everyone is in trouble.

Economies run on trust which is dissipating rapidly.

 

Looks as they they are about to introduce it [see video clip posted above].

[spygirl]

Intersting reading a few of te mortgage woe stories.

The number of people woeing on IO, took out 2000-2015ish is, unsurprisingly high.

UK mortgage approvals. Again ...

You see the line from 2000 to 2014ish? 90% were naked IO mortgages.

Only 50% of those IO mortgages have been moved to a repayment/derisked.

The first batch of IO resi - and IO BTL - are coming to term/last 5y, just as rates normalise.

You remember that miracle economy of Browns, 2000-2007?

It was nothing more than the biggest credit bubble any country has ever blown.

Again, Scabby has been stuck at 2004ish prices for coming p to 20years.

IM curious about what will happen next now weve got higher rates.

I can easily see HPs going back to mid to late 90s levels - there is little to no FTBs; the market cannot clear.

This would take nominal prices back mid to late 80s.

Real prices? Back to *BEFORE* there was *ANY* HP boom or mass mortgages  i.e. 1960s.

Now imagine whats going to happen if/when London prices go back to 2004 levels.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[spygirl]

45 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I think points made in this video chime well with the points you are making:

 

Looks as they they are about to introduce it [see video clip posted above].

I the BRICS as they are wantign to be called now, manage to create a currency that other countries use - borrow and trade in - then I will willingly take a trip to the bottom of the sea in a plastic drainpipe.

AS its stands, they are just messing around, with a system thats slightly better than battering.

 

 

[MrXxxx]

7 minutes ago, spygirl said:

I the BRICS as they are wantign to be called now, manage to create a currency that other countries use - borrow and trade in - then I will willingly take a trip to the bottom of the sea in a plastic drainpipe.

AS its stands, they are just messing around, with a system thats slightly better than battering.

 

 

But are they actually creating a new currency?...I don't think , I think all they are doing is tying National currencies to gold, and as a result providing confidence in these for trade; a position traditionally held by THE trading currency [US$], one that due to a declining economy and recently being 'weaponised' is losing confidence [as with most FIAT currencies since dropping a gold standard].

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

But are they actually creating a new currency?...I don't think , I think all they are doing is tying National currencies to gold, and as a result providing confidence in these for trade; a position traditionally held by THE trading currency [US$], one that due to a declining economy and recently being 'weaponised' is losing confidence [as with most FIAT currencies since dropping a gold standard].

They are trying to put in place a trading/commercial banking system in place that does not use the $ in any form, to get around US laws on using the $.

It will be interesting to see how far they  get.

 

 

[XswampyX]

7 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Imagine you buy a house with all your savings, the bubble implodes you loose everything you go bankrupt and you end up on the streets, meanwhile compound interest makes you richer and richer and richer.

 

If you fix yours savings at a high rate when inflation falls you become much wealthier.

Learn to add up, it'll stand you in good stead 

 

You sound worried swampy...good, your kind deserve to lose everything, imagine that 

Lol! That's my story. I'm the saver! 

[spygirl]

From TOS

Thats SVR for resi

Halifax raised its standard variable rate (SVR) for mortgages to the highest level for nearly 25 years yesterday after the Bank of England’s decision to increase the cost of borrowing by 0.5 percentage points.

The former building society said that the rate, to which borrowers revert at the end of their initial mortgage term, would rise from 7.99 per cent to 8.49 per cent at the beginning of August.

The last time Halifax’s SVR was that high was November 1998, when the rate was 8.7 per cent, falling to 8.2 per cent the following month.

As recently as December 2021, the lender’s SVR was only 3.59 per cent, meaning it has increased 4.9 percentage points in 18 months, exactly in line with the Bank of England base rate.

The decision will add £63 a month to the cost of a £200,000 home loan with 20 years left to run. A borrower in this position will now pay £1,759 a month, an increase of nearly £600 a month, or £7,200 a year, compared with 2021.

Halifax declined to say how many borrowers pay its SVR, but figures from UK Finance, which represents the banking industry, show that 773,000 residential borrowers and 362,000 buy-to-let borrowers are on SVRs.

Most lenders are expected to announce increases to their SVRs, although Halifax is the only one so far. Skipton Building Society confirmed it would increase its SVR by 0.25 percentage points, taking its rate to 6.79 per cent. UK Finance said that 930,000 borrowers were on tracker mortgages, which are directly linked to the Bank of England base rate. From next month repayments for these homeowners will jump by an average of £50 a month.

A further 800,000 borrowers have fixed-rate deals that will expire this year. The majority of these homeowners are fixed at rates below 2 per cent. The average two-year fix is now 6.19 per cent and the average five-year fix is 5.82 per cent.

Alastair Douglas, of Totally Money, said: “Borrowers coming to the end of fixed deals will be asking themselves if they should secure a new deal or wait for rates to drop. The truth is that everybody’s personal situation is different. So make sure you do some research and then get in touch with an independent mortgage broker.

“While the government has ruled out financial assistance for struggling mortgage customers, the Financial Conduct Authority has ordered banks to support those who need it. Options include moving to reduced monthly payments or extending the mortgage term.”

Greg Marsh, of the money-saving website nous.co, said: “With little choice but to act drastically on interest rates, the Bank of England may now have to trigger a full-blown recession to bring inflation down. The result? Acute and avoidable hardship for millions of households that are already struggling. The pain for mortgage holders today — and then renters tomorrow — will be far deeper and will last longer.”

Halifax said 80 per cent of its customers had fixed their rates and would not see a change to their monthly payment.

Case study

Roberta Jackson, 32, says she will have to forgo a holiday this year because of the rising cost of her monthly repayments (Andrew Ellson writes).

She owns a one-bedroom flat in Waterloo, south London, which she bought in 2018. The property cost £340,000 and at the time she borrowed £217,000 from Halifax on a five-year fix at 1.9 per cent.

This year she put her flat on the market because she and her partner wanted somewhere bigger. Her five-year deal had come to an end but she chose not to get another fix because she was selling her home and did not want to pay an exit fee. She reverted to Halifax’s standard variable rate (SVR), paying 5 per cent, and had found a buyer.

But as interest rates rose, her buyer pulled out, leaving her stuck with an SVR that had grown to 7.99 per cent. Her monthly payments more than doubled to more than £1,500. She faces paying 8.49 per cent from August.

Jackson, who runs Puzzle Post, which makes board games, said: “I’ve got a good salary but now it’s a struggle. I don’t think we can afford a holiday this year now. I know I am in a privileged position compared to many but when you get that letter every month from Halifax saying your rate has gone up, it’s still stressful. Especially when its savings rate is still at 0.95 per cent, not that I have much in it.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/halifax-lifts-variable-mortgages-to-highest-level-for-decades-0ttxhf3wm

 

[JoeDavola]

If people's definition of hard times is not being able to afford a foreign holiday then we really are pussies.

[Boon]

Another funny sob story which just doesn't add up.

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Finews.co.uk%2Finews-lifestyle%2Fmortgage-doubled-trapped-flat-cant-afford-no-one-buy-2426415%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR347-djZ-74ZdS7rsX2B0Coyiud6CxC9b6UNTM1ZiS1KIxtKyV-DyCOo0M

So wait, a mortgage going from £800 to £1500 means that you can't buy food? Sure, maybe.

But how did they get a £290,000 mortgage on your own, what level of earnings? Even pushing it to the max gives a wage of around £65k, where's all the money going?

It is fucking amazing how much people are trying to exaggerate. I mean just look at the headline. Mortgage doubling and can't sell the flat??

The reality is her mortgage went from £800 to £1200, and she must have had a sub 1% deal to start with. She only can't sell the flat because she isn't willing to take the price the market offered, and she has to scrimp around because her husband isn't paying his share of upkeep.

Absolute bollocks story. 

[spygirl]

Glass of whisky. Gun to the head.

 

https://www.johnogroat-journal.co.uk/news/dunbeath-landowner-stuart-wyndham-murray-threipland-will-be-317933/

The family of Caithness landowner and businessman Stuart Wyndham Murray Threipland have said he will be "hugely missed" following his death last week.

Mr Threipland passed away in Wiltshire on Monday, June 12. It is understood he was 76.

He died on the same day that property agents Savills announced Mr Threipland's estate and 13-bedroom castle at Dunbeath had gone on the market with offers over £25 million being sought.

In a statement, the family said: "Stuart Wyndham Murray Threipland sadly died on 12th June 2023 at Wilton. He will be hugely missed by all his family.”

[spygirl]

Theres all sort of suspect  propretee n debt thigns popping up at the mo.

A lot of Mrs Spys coworkers are seriously depressed by the day.

Weve agree to say we got a 10y mortgage fixed at 3%. to make it look not so bad to them (good for us).

We had sub 2% mortgage 10y, fixed for 5,  which is now paid off ,mainly by chucjnh an extra 1.5k/m at it for 5y fixed period

Making hay while the sun shines with low IRs.