Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 2)

[Frank Hovis]

4 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

I can spend another 200k cash without even worrying about it and get a bigger house in the country but the extra costs including rates, power, travel would probably cripple me on my ever dwindling background income. Even if that house was 'value' because nobody is buying half a mil houses in the country at the minute it wouldnt be value to me.

 

TBh that's my concern.  That I buy somewhere big just as the property tax reforms I've been calling for come in and suddenly I own a place which I can't afford to live in!

[belfastchild]

Just now, Frank Hovis said:

 

TBh that's my concern.  That I buy somewhere big just as the property tax reforms I've been calling for come in and suddenly I own a place which I can't afford to live in!

Ive given the example before of one of my elderly neighbours. They bought the house back in the 1980s , in theory, they were the type of boomers mentioned on here sitting on a gold mine. Problem was they were on state pensions so couldnt afford to upgrade the heating from the original coal. They are old and frail now so got a grant to put in gas last year but find they couldnt afford to heat the place when the bills came in (they bought coal when they had money and rationed it).

Im wondering if the government will exercise the buyout clause in my solar contract. A windfall for a short time possibly but then back to paying whatever is required for electricity but without the yearly subsidy. Oh but put it away in shares with divis or interest paying account... ..no most people will spunk it on a holiday, new kitchen or whatever.

We dont pay for water rates here, govt has asked the civil service to draw up plans for them, we apparently pay for them through rates as it is, bet rates dont go down... They didnt implement them years ago because the water meter rollout would have cost too much. Fucked if Im paying them if theres no water meter.
IMF came in down south and hit everyone with water charges, a 'one off' property tax for homeowners etc etc etc.

Yeah we will hit you with a 1% charge on what we think your house is 'worth', not what you actually paid for it.

[JoeDavola]

15 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Yeah we will hit you with a 1% charge on what we think your house is 'worth', not what you actually paid for it.

You know the idea of a 'rateable value' of a house I'm sure - but for others you can go online and search for the governments assessment of what a house is 'worth' and the rates (our council tax) is based off that.

The problem is that the rateable values are mostly far lower than the actual value today of many of these houses. Like 40% lower or more in some cases, and haven't been updated for donkeys years.

If the local councils are wanting to raise some money, a re-assesment of those rateable values might be a way to do it..

Edited June 22, 2023 by JoeDavola

[JoeDavola]

So if the IR is 5%, be interesting to see what mortgage rates for OO and BTL are in the next few days.

It's been a quicker climb to 5% than I'd thought, question is whether this is the peak?

[HousePriceMania]

7 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

So if the IR is 5%, be interesting to see what mortgage rates for OO and BTL are in the next few days.

It's been a quicker climb to 5% than I'd thought, question is whether this is the peak?

I dont think the IRs matter any more...

 

[Ash4781b]

3 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

I don't know about other media, but Talk Radio keep using the figure of an average rise in mortgage payments of £3,000.

That is irrelevant.

BIL's mortage would have gone up by about £5 if he hadn't paid it off last year.

The issue is recent first time buyers in the SE.

Almost anyone buying in the last 5 years will have a mortgage of £250k on a £300k+ home.. This would have been easily achievable for a couple on £30k each - so a couple of newly qualified teachers for example.

Assuming they had a fix of 2%, and are now looking at about 6%, that is an increase of £10k interest per year.

They might be able to get a five year fix at less than that, but since it is highly unlikely they can afford the extra £10k they won't fix as their ONLY hope (which the media is fuelling) is for rates to drop again later this year, and tying themselves into an unaffordable fix is financial suicide.

They really will have no choice but to sell. Even interest only will be beyond their reach.

That could be a couple of hundred thousand starter homes coming on to the market. The only likely buyers will be landlords. They will, if they have learnt their lesson, expect an 8% yield. 

That £300k place will rent for £1,200 a month at best. It is therefore now worth £150k.

It is the outliers that matter, not the average.

Is that likely on the help to buy scheme?

[Wight Flight]

4 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

Is that likely on the help to buy scheme?

I don't really understand how that worked - but didn't interested go up every year by 2% + CPI?

And it was on new builds only I think?

[spygirl]

43 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

So if the IR is 5%, be interesting to see what mortgage rates for OO and BTL are in the next few days.

It's been a quicker climb to 5% than I'd thought, question is whether this is the peak?

IO BTL be be touching 10%.

I shall kleep an eye out for the new APRs.

At the moment, the banks will ahve removed all offers for a few days while they rework the sums.

Its not goign to be nice. And this is how it was alwats goign to end.

 

[spygirl]

6 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

Is that likely on the help to buy scheme?

 

Just now, Wight Flight said:

I don't really understand how that worked - but didn't interested go up every year by 2% + CPI?

And it was on new builds only I think?

IfIR had stayed low then the IR o nthe 'free' loan' looked ruinius- by Y5 theyd be far higher then the mortgage.

HTB was sdeisned to ge tthe equity loan repaid ASAP - or at least remortgaged.

Nehter of thos two looks likely for majoptiry of people who *needed* HTB.

However, now with much higher APRs, the HTB  free laon bit is lookign insanely cheap. So cheap I dont see it lasting.

However the APR on the mortgage bit will fuck them over.

For the credit Gidiot gets for various things esp S24,, his rep will die with HTB.

 

 

[Boon]

Can't wait for the barrage of sob stories this will produce, and the media just ignoring all the important details.

I mean here is one:

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Finews.co.uk%2Finews-lifestyle%2Fmoney%2Fmortgage-gone-up-forced-move-house-2424124%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR3t9lB8CimRla2TNH7VuaRvU8IZkVqayNE4bVYUfou3h6-ikkFkKmkb3zA

I wonder if there was a small detail that somehow was glossed over.....

[HousePriceMania]

44 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

Is that likely on the help to buy scheme?

Paid for with what ?

QE is gone.

[belfastchild]

2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

If the local councils are wanting to raise some money, a re-assesment of those rateable values might be a way to do it..

Errr,,,,

Joe....

Its all relative...

Rateable value was something to judge the size of the house as rates at the time were based on number of bedrooms, garage etc. If you go Planning permission it gets revalued to the next step up on 'rateable value'.

Rates go up every year regardless of rateable value, its just a fiddle factor they multiply by.

[Stuey]

3 hours ago, InLikeFlynn said:

I liked his input - there's a definite "groupthink" in the forum these days.

Agreed. Don't go along with the groupthink, you get called a troll and get people PMing the mods for you to get banned.

How do I know? 

 

7 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Yes but there are quite a few people out there with hundreds of K in the bank who just buy houses outright.

It's a status thing and they don't really care if the return is amazing or not. They'd rather own something they can see and touch rather than cash in the bank or some stocks.

Yes IO btl is dead, but there's still the factor of the rich using houses as their store of wealth. It's a real thing.

 

[Frank Hovis]

1 hour ago, Boon said:

Can't wait for the barrage of sob stories this will produce, and the media just ignoring all the important details.

I mean here is one:

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Finews.co.uk%2Finews-lifestyle%2Fmoney%2Fmortgage-gone-up-forced-move-house-2424124%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR3t9lB8CimRla2TNH7VuaRvU8IZkVqayNE4bVYUfou3h6-ikkFkKmkb3zA

I wonder if there was a small detail that somehow was glossed over.....

 

She wanted to remortgage at a cheaper rate two months ago, but went bankrupt shortly before the pandemic, which shredded her credit rating: “I have spoken to a broker and I will struggle to get a mortgage from a high-street lender.”

What makes this even worse is.....

A qualified accountant

[eek]

3 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

So if the IR is 5%, be interesting to see what mortgage rates for OO and BTL are in the next few days.

It's been a quicker climb to 5% than I'd thought, question is whether this is the peak?

Nope - peak will be 6.5-7%.

And it will be 5.5% come August...

[Stuey]

1 minute ago, eek said:

Nope - peak will be 6.5-7%.

And it will be 5.5% come August...

They will hold in August and cut by end of winter IMO 

[eek]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

IO BTL be be touching 10%.

I shall kleep an eye out for the new APRs.

At the moment, the banks will ahve removed all offers for a few days while they rework the sums.

Its not goign to be nice. And this is how it was alwats goign to end.

 

Natwest have removed BTL loans. Don't think they will be coming back except via Brokers and even then I can't see them returning for a long time.

[spygirl]

BBC reporting how hard working fmaileis are getting hammered.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65982981

We can only afford bushmeat 2x a week love.

And it looks like well both have to get a job now.

Fucking Tories.

 

[spygirl]

27 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

She wanted to remortgage at a cheaper rate two months ago, but went bankrupt shortly before the pandemic, which shredded her credit rating: “I have spoken to a broker and I will struggle to get a mortgage from a high-street lender.”

What makes this even worse is.....

A qualified accountant

How the fuck is she still in her flat if she went banksuprt?

Is this jounros fuckign stuff like an IVA up?

Nope - 

https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3643708

POLLY ARROWSMITH of 160 Barnsbury Road, LONDON, N1 0ER whose occupation is Software Entrepreneur

In the High Court Of Justice

No 453 of 2020

Date of Filing Petition: 19 August 2020

Bankruptcy order date: 30 September 2020

[Dave Bloke]

The Guardian polled people and 75% of people thought that Sunak's pledge to half the inflation rate meant prices would drop overall!

[spygirl]

North London woman who spends more than £1500 every Christmas to buy 250 gifts for people she never meets

Every year Polly Arrowsmith delivers 250 presents to old age pensioners, people with mental health difficulties, residents of women’s refuges and asylum seekers.

https://www.mylondon.news/news/north-london-news/north-london-woman-who-spends-25717640

Hoarders struggling to get support as fire brigade warns of safety risk

Mental Health Awareness: 'Often hoarding comes with this huge sense of isolation and lonelines'

https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/hoarders-struggling-to-get-support-as-fire-brigade-warns-of-safety-risk

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/fabulous/21298749/i-thought-sex-was-to-be-thrilling-it-wasnt/

“‘Do you think we should have sex?’ my boyfriend suddenly blurted out. I blushed furiously – it was the last thing I expected him to say.

It was January 1984 and we’d only been together for six weeks, after I’d invited him to come with me to a Meat Loaf concert. I had a spare ticket and, as we’d known each other from school, I knew he was a huge fan.

 

He was funny and kind – and I was smitten. Seeing how infatuated their 17- year-old daughter was, my pragmatic parents made an appointment with our GP for me to go on the Pill.

But even then, I didn’t think we’d have sex any time soon. We were both virgins and neither of us were in a hurry to take our relationship to the next level.

But that night, he’d come back to my family home after we’d been hanging out with his friends, and up in my bedroom he was suddenly keen to do it.

I didn’t feel ready – but when would I, I wondered? Plus, was it that big a deal? It seemed like everyone in sixth-form was doing it. So we did.

 

It was awkward, uncomfortable, even painful. Needless to say, I didn’t enjoy it. It was only slightly better when we tried it again an hour later.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/cut-spending-christmas-presents-4000-just-200/

Polly Arrowsmith has spent years buying expensive Christmas gifts for family members, friends and their children.

Last year she paid more than £1,000 for presents that included a £650 designer dress for her sister. In the preceding years her budget was £3,000 to £4,000 for items such as games consoles, Chanel handbags and toys for more than 22 people.

But this Christmas will be different: she has spent only £200 and has narrowed her list to just a few people.

Arrowsmith, 55, says the rising cost of living was one of the reasons she decided to make the change. During the pandemic she lost her business and was forced to downsize from a house to a small flat, so she does not have the space to host her family anymore.

Arrowsmith, a marketing director from north London, is among millions of people who are cutting back on Christmas. One in four people is spending less on gifts this season, according to a survey by Barclaycard; 29pc are saving money on gifts for family and friends and 23pc are cutting back on festive parties.

[HousePriceMania]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, people really dont understand how much 0% ( well sub 1% mortgage rates ) have driven house prices to massive extreme.

With mortgage rates above 6% we will see a rapid initial collapse and years of falls IMHO

The QE is gone and it doesn't look like it's coming back

Brown pants time.

[Stuey]

5 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again, people really dont understand how much 0% ( well sub 1% mortgage rates ) have driven house prices to massive extreme.

With mortgage rates above 6% we will see a rapid initial collapse and years of falls IMHO

The QE is gone and it doesn't look like it's coming back

Brown pants time.

The interest rate spike will be very temporary. Once prices respond to relatively cheap energy, rates will be back to the 2010s normal.

 

This is a golden window to buy a home.

 

 

Edited June 22, 2023 by Stuey

[spygirl]

10 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again, people really dont understand how much 0% ( well sub 1% mortgage rates ) have driven house prices to massive extreme.

With mortgage rates above 6% we will see a rapid initial collapse and years of falls IMHO

The QE is gone and it doesn't look like it's coming back

Brown pants time.

Poeple dont understand how few people have acutally been buying house to live in since ~2000.

And they dotn graps how mcuh leverage the people who have been buying houses have took on.

Oh, and how few people 'buying' houses have acutally not got a repayment in place.

 

 

[Rare Bear]

1 hour ago, belfastchild said:

Errr,,,,

Joe....

Its all relative...

Rateable value was something to judge the size of the house as rates at the time were based on number of bedrooms, garage etc. If you go Planning permission it gets revalued to the next step up on 'rateable value'.

Rates go up every year regardless of rateable value, its just a fiddle factor they multiply by.

I'm genuinely surprised at the number of otherwise well informed people who don't realise this. Equally applicable to council tax.