Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 7)

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Funn3r said:

Rare visit to the office this morning and now side trip to the chain pub I used to go in a lot.

Mostly empty of real people. Desperate decorations to make it look Halloween Spooky. Fat shaz taking a break from Netflix to bring her kids to run riot. Fat shaz even more layers of makeup friend and kids at next table. Why do I even. This is not an economy.

You in threadneedle St ?

[belfastchild]

55 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Someone in Germany has made an unpleasant phone call to the Government asking for bennies.

Another one of mine going to zero.

To be fair I got them for 'free' when the Siemens parent company spun them off. Not that they knew anything like this was coming up of course. Sold siemens after that for a profit. Meant to sell the free ones off but would have cost me more in fees this last wee while (ok not quite but probably not far off now).

[Bobthebuilder]

Did my tax return today, running my business pretty much as a hobby now, so total tax paid was a big fat zero, lets see how many hotel rooms that pays for eh?

@DurhamBorn found out that the reason I have not been paying class 2, comes down to how you registered the wording when you first go self employed. Very sneaky even by HMRC standards, going to phone them tomorrow cheeky c*nts, I might even make an official complaint.

Had a look at divi income from my ISA and its not to shabby at present, divis plus sole trader income will just about do me for the next few years. Able to access my SIPP from next year, no decision on that yet, but probably wont touch it for a while.

Feeling pretty positive despite all the doom and gloom lately.

[crashmonitor]

42 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Did my tax return today, running my business pretty much as a hobby now, so total tax paid was a big fat zero, lets see how many hotel rooms that pays for eh?

@DurhamBorn found out that the reason I have not been paying class 2, comes down to how you registered the wording when you first go self employed. Very sneaky even by HMRC standards, going to phone them tomorrow cheeky c*nts, I might even make an official complaint.

Had a look at divi income from my ISA and its not to shabby at present, divis plus sole trader income will just about do me for the next few years. Able to access my SIPP from next year, no decision on that yet, but probably wont touch it for a while.

Feeling pretty positive despite all the doom and gloom lately.

I think you can backdate the class 2 contributions up to 6 years. If you were earning less than £6725  from self employment in 22/23 you pay a mere £3.15  per week voluntary class 2, about a fifth of the rate you pay for class 3 if you are not working at all. If you earned more than that, but less than about 12k  in any of those six years you should get full national insurance credit with no charge.

The new State pension is so large now  (11.5 k pa from 2024) that it's essential you aim to get 35 years contributions if you are likely to have investments that would preclude pension credit.

The rules are complicated, but that's how I read them here...

 

https://www.litrg.org.uk/tax-guides/self-employment/what-national-insurance-do-i-pay-if-i-am-self-employed

Edited October 26, 2023 by crashmonitor

[Bobthebuilder]

7 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

I think you can backdate the class 2 contributions up to 6 years. If you were earning less than £6725  from self employed you pay a mere £3.15  per week voluntary class 2, about a fifth of the rate you pay for class 3 if you are not working at all. If you earned more than that, but less than about 12k  in any of those six years you should get full national insurance credit with no charge.

The new State pension is so large now  (11.5 k pa from 2024) that it's essential you aim to get 35 years contributions if you are likely to have investments that would preclude pension credit.

 

https://www.litrg.org.uk/tax-guides/self-employment/what-national-insurance-do-i-pay-if-i-am-self-employed

Thank you for that, much appreciated.

For me, I didnt register correctly 24 years ago, so all those NI payments did not register as class 2.

They really are a bunch of thieves, I trust the local drug dealers more.

[crashmonitor]

29 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Thank you for that, much appreciated.

For me, I didnt register correctly 24 years ago, so all those NI payments did not register as class 2.

They really are a bunch of thieves, I trust the local drug dealers more.

I'd be tempted to go right back to 2006 in that case and make up 11 years to 2017. I'd imagine that would have to be class 3, but I can't be sure. You have until April 2025 to do that. Add on 6 years class 2 from 2017 and you have 17 years plus any credits you earned before you became self employed. Then keep paying  from hereonin and you might get to a full record.

Those 17 years might cost less than 10k. Could cost less if you can pay the lot on class 2.

Edited October 26, 2023 by crashmonitor

[Democorruptcy]

59 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Did my tax return today, running my business pretty much as a hobby now, so total tax paid was a big fat zero, lets see how many hotel rooms that pays for eh?

@DurhamBorn found out that the reason I have not been paying class 2, comes down to how you registered the wording when you first go self employed. Very sneaky even by HMRC standards, going to phone them tomorrow cheeky c*nts, I might even make an official complaint.

Had a look at divi income from my ISA and its not to shabby at present, divis plus sole trader income will just about do me for the next few years. Able to access my SIPP from next year, no decision on that yet, but probably wont touch it for a while.

Feeling pretty positive despite all the doom and gloom lately.

There's a new online top up system supposedly starting next Spring

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-12671087/Online-state-pension-voluntary-contributions-service-launched.html?

[Long time lurking]

 

[Bobthebuilder]

27 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

I'd be tempted to go right back to 2006 in that case and make up 11 years to 2017. I'd imagine that would have to be class 3, but I can't be sure. You have until April 2025 to do that. Add on 6 years class 2 from 2017 and you have 17 years plus any credits you earned before you became self employed. Then keep paying  from hereonin and you might get to a full record.

Those 17 years might cost less than 10k. Could cost less if you can pay the lot on class 2.

Thank you, I think I can do most of this via my tax return.gov website.

Can I just say again thank you for your thread "house prices adjusted for inflation" from back in the day, I bought my house following your graph.

[Lightscribe]

 

erm.. @Stuey is this good or bad?

[DurhamBorn]

Slowly slowly Telcos are going to get more of the pie.Once they can throttle traffic the likes of Sony etc will have to pay up or see their games slow,FIFA see lag on world cup games over the net etc.Telcos are hugely undervalued in most cases.Im having to be very patient on this so far,but its giving me time to add more.

https://newsroom.bt.com/ofcom-statement-is-a-step-in-the-right-direction-for-more-sustainable-networks/

[ashestoashes]

just signed up to BT fibre 500 (500 Mbps) 24 month contract for £1 more than fibre 100, don't see how they make money on that. Currently on fibre 2 67Mbps for £7 more. Taken since July to get it installed as they can't get their act together, they spent thousands digging trench for new cable.

[Agent ZigZag]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Slowly slowly Telcos are going to get more of the pie.Once they can throttle traffic the likes of Sony etc will have to pay up or see their games slow,FIFA see lag on world cup games over the net etc.Telcos are hugely undervalued in most cases.Im having to be very patient on this so far,but its giving me time to add more.

I like your conviction on this especially in view of the doom and gloom of late. Like a lot of shares entry points are important. I would be interested in others views of their top 5 companies. Maybe we need a Sancho scoreboard update. I got AT andT, Verizon Bt vodaphone, and telephonica Brazil and telephonica Deutschland that’s been a dog of late

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

telephonica Brazil

I am 25% up on them.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

6 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I am 25% up on them.

I'm thinking of going heavy on Brazil. Including Petrobras, which I once owned at a much lower price. Someone talk me out of it.

[Castlevania]

31 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I am 25% up on them.

Same here. Was surprised actually when I noted that earlier today. 

[Bobthebuilder]

26 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I'm thinking of going heavy on Brazil. Including Petrobras, which I once owned at a much lower price. Someone talk me out of it.

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

22 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

 

https://youtu.be/zeBDoNBNMro?si=0dhatCnVa2ei8LJa

I've wasted some years but I fancy going back to Rio. At least for a few days on the piss.

Edited October 26, 2023 by Yadda yadda yadda

[Stuey]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

 

erm.. @Stuey is this good or bad?

Irrelevant US domestic market? 

[Stuey]

A quick reminder of the market much more relevant to most posters here.

 

 

[Lightscribe]

33 minutes ago, Stuey said:

A quick reminder of the market much more relevant to most posters here.

 

 

 

Let’s see what war in the Middle East will do for gas prices. (UK imports 50% of its own supply)

Edited October 27, 2023 by Lightscribe

[Lightscribe]

 

Looks like the big one may be inbound.

 

Edited October 27, 2023 by Lightscribe

[wherebee]

well my holdings are about 65% red now, but my portfolio is declining a lot slower than the S&P.  I wish I had the balls to sell stuff like BAT and buy back 5% cheaper, but I'm always wary of being barry pantsdown...

[crashmonitor]

On 25/10/2023 at 17:04, Pip321 said:

Few mentions on here about losses....sentiment is a funny thing. I try to think of it as two types of investments when I buy (at the moment ie pre BK) and there are 2 choices. 

1) I buy and check in every few months and ignore the noise because Telecoms, PMs etc, run up and down like a tarts pants. Examples for me like that are Blackrock Gold and GJGB which I bought and almost ignore. 

2) Others I buy and watch it like a hawk....and if it rallies I sell but only with a view of buying it back cheaper because I am invested in that company.  The reason I do this is this market and this macro is leading into such difficult times if I end up losing out on a rally I can live with that. Whereas those investments in option 1, I feel I cant afford to lose out if they rise...so with those I am turning a blind eye to short term moves.

I don't buy anything just with a view to trade in case I am left something I didn't want. 

So likely I will sell personal favourite Rio tomorrow because it has rallied. Apparently 2/3 days ago Rio and Iron was crap....now its wonderful. Such a fickle market....

I have had a look at my Rio trades and effectively allowing for costs I am up about £9 a share....I sit on that gain and will then try buy back at £48 and count that as a share cost £39 (ie £48 - £9), lather rinse repeat. I visualise the price like this because I am invested in Rio as a long term hold rather than trading ie I hold Rio but try churn it a bit to make it feel cheaper

Now as it happens if they rally to £60 after I sell (which they normally do after I sell the fuckers)...I will cry a bit but  will try remember current market conditions and I am trying to protect wealth and not build it. 

I hold Fres (I know, I know...I just like toothless Mexicans) and I am currently down 25% on my last buy. However due to previous trades I am up about 50p a share overall even now.

I have lost out on some shares...BAT dropped as soon as I touched it, so laddered in again and it decided to kick me in the nuts a bit more (down overall about 10%). Now I see this as a long term hold savings account where the capital fluctuates as I collect my dividend.  And if it happens to rally and I am up say 10% on my original purchase I might trade it because again its a fickle market. I class this as a long term hold but not currently one to trade because I am at a loss 

All this ignores dividends....I consider that at the moment (unscientifically) as just keeping par with interest this money would have earned in the bank 

All nonsense I guess....but helps me manage sentiment when the chips are down 😉

 

2022 and 2023 have been a tough two  calendar years, not withstanding there is still time for 2023 to recover, though the trend would suggest otherwise.

Considering the three major asset classes.. US Equities, UK Equities and Bonds. The total return on the S and P 500 (incl. Dividends) since 31/12/21 was minus 5%, obvs the performance was spectacular running up to that date. The FTSE All Share Total Return was up just 1%. And meanwhile, Bonds  must be down at least 25%. I don't know if there is a quantifiable index that brings in all Bonds because there are so many different types and durations?

Not surprisingly the average UK Managed Pension fund is also down 10% during that time, which makes sense given those stats and the likely asset allocation.

 

Factor in Andrew Bailey's inflation  and heck it is tough for the investor.

[ashestoashes]

tickerguy saying markets due a correction

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=249963

Oh They Won't Sink?

[Comments enabled]

I dunno about that....

The stonk market, that is.

How's Moderna doing?  One year, not so good.

Apple? Not so good.

Amazon?  We'll see when the market closes.

META?  Didn't look so bad until..... well, after the market closed.

Still, META and a few others are holding the market up pretty well, all things considered.  The Russell is a mess.

How about "The Consumer Will Spend", otherwise known as Disney (not so good), Carnival , Royal Caribbean  and many others.  Then again there are exceptions.  Hilton (HLT) is in pretty good shape.  Crappy-Burritoland (CMG) is surprisingly ok all things considered but Cheesecakes (CAKE)..... not really so much.

I can tell you what I see around here -- its downright slow.  Now to be fair this time of year things do slow down, but this is..... not quite like you expect.  How widespread is that?  Not sure; I was traveling all over in mid-September with Sarah as I noted, and some of the places we went into (like Big Texan) were busy as usual, while others (near the Canyon) were best described as..... deserts.  As in "deserted, of customers to be specific."

I can tell you the crazy around here with the wishes and dreams in the Real Estate market hasn't come to Jesus yet, but I expect it to.  The evidence is showing up -- there are listings, but their asks are in the "wishes and dreams" category and they're not moving.  There's always some of that in any market but right now that's pretty much all it is.

Meanwhile if you think inflation is coming down, well, "slowing down" won't help.  It has to not only go away the price escalation has to come back out.  "Oh that will never happen" you say?  Fine, perhaps it won't.  But if it doesn't then the S&P, DOW and Nasdaq are about 80% overvalued as rates will not come down either and all that paper out there will eventually have to be rolled.

Tomorrow in the corporates?  No.  But five or ten years from now?  Yes.  And as each of those bonds do roll interest expense goes up and the net earnings go down.  A ratchet lower over time it will be and eventually the market is going to recognize this and try to get ahead of it -- with stock price declines.

Oh we now have a "Speaker" too.  His first act is apparently going to be to throw $100 billion more into the furnace, as requested by Biden.  He's also vowed "No more CRs", which I expect has a use-by date of about three weeks, after which he'll bring to the floor.... another CR.

Eventually you and everyone else -- particularly those in the asset markets -- are going to figure out that no, fiscal reason has not found its way back to DC and other than beating Congress over the head with a 20,000 point decline in the DOW, 12,000 or more down in the Nasdaq and 3,000 points in the SPX it won't either.

That's be about when those declines occur.

The spooky holidays may extend well beyond October 31st this year.