Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Red Debt Redemption]

7 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Was talking to a mate yesterday who installs central heating, he said no one is getting back to him on quotes, hes started looking for work with the bigger companies. Pretty shitty out there apparently.

Maybe almost time to get quotes on house upgrades? It was the other way during the coof rises with tradies not getting back as swamped with work / cherry picking. Been waiting for this day muahhahahaa.

Muhahahahahaha

Muhahahahahahahahahahahahaah.

 

 

[Red Debt Redemption]

7 hours ago, wherebee said:

yeah, I'm getting a bit nervous.  I don't want a BK just yet.

Its why I haven't bought anymore miners yet got a feeling DB is right on a pull back got enough if they don't though. 

[Bobthebuilder]

10 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Maybe almost time to get quotes on house upgrades? It was the other way during the coof rises with tradies not getting back as swamped with work / cherry picking. Been waiting for this day muahhahahaa.

Muhahahahahaha

Muhahahahahahahahahahahahaah.

You might get a cheaper price, but if you re read my post he didn't say he was reducing his prices he said he would move on to other things. No point in earning Labourers wages for doing a job that comes under building control and the responsibilities that brings. As I said in the follow up post, "time to drop the spanner and pick up the hammer".

Edited April 9 by Bobthebuilder

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I should add the risk of a BK is also getting bigger with these PM increases.People have a bit of a laugh on here about David Hunter,but he is one of a handful of macro strategists left from the team at Fidelity,the best macro team the world has ever seen.

We need to see how this PM rally develops,but be open to selling into it later and into treasuries maybe.

For now the market might try to shake weak hands out of the sector,then go parabolic,im holding for now to see how it develops.

I agree with your point on PM rises signalling CB's losing control.More a symptom than a cause of a BK.

The odd thing is that I was looking at this cahrt last week and wodnering when it becoems a contrarian buy if it ever does?

ZROZ as well.

The thing with Hunter is this.Much as you could slate his shrot term calls ,his long term ones have been superb.He was calling this mrket higher a year ago alongsdie PM's.and he's consistently been tehre or thereabouts with anything beyond the medium term as I remember it.

29 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

More because the roadmap signals PMs would rise as the CBs lost control of liquidity v inflation.The Fed has nearly emptied the Reverse Repo,that means they have got the liquidity into the system,and now they want to start a private sector credit cycle by cutting rates.The solvency of the US and West depends on that,but inflation is moving up again when at this part of most cycles it should be becalmed.This thread explains why,but in simple terms that liquidity is going out of the country to buy things to consume.The Fed needs to cut rates hard into inflation.If they stall,as they might,they will ensure a BK,if they cut they might just avoid a BK,but a very difficult inflation cycle.Im not sold yet on how a BK looks.It could be more a fall,then grind lower in any investments that cannot inflation price.

The state is consuming too much through its proxies.The only way to cut inflation now is a huge crash,a huge cut in the state,or accept higher inflation,but invest in production.

I dont know wheterh you may remmeber DB but back ni 2018 when Jay powell got the Fed chair we had an excellenet discussion down here about the dollar and it's future.

the conclusion was that the USD had one crisis left in it.the obvious question looming is whetehr that crisis was covid(manufactured) or whetehr we meant a proper financial crisis.

i thought you point on gold sniffing out the CB's problems was bang ona nd soemthign youve been saying for sometime.

also given this rise in gold,is that a sign that US debt(and by implication UK debt) is going ot get harder to shfit? could we see gilt yields moving higher even if infaltion recedes?

Ive always hedl that the looming BK would be a finacail credit event but it is beginning to look more and mroe like a sov debt/stagflation crisis

so many questions.

[sancho panza]

Simply incredible that we're committing economic hari Kiri so the polo's can pray at the net zero altar

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Simply incredible that we're committing economic hari Kiri so the polo's can pray at the net zero altar

Don't watch propaganda central BBC News tonight as some burned out old Swedish bint's have won a case at the ECHR against the Swedish Government not taking sufficient Climate Change (presumably hotter) Action to prevent the old curmudgeons dying of 'heat stroke'.

Yes, 'the Heat' in Sweden.

Apparently this sets a precedent for the EU to beat other countries up with.

[Jay]

1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

Could you please explain to me like i am a small child or a Labrador why high PMs could result in a BK?

Honest question, is it due to liquidity moving into the PM market which is overall quite small relative to equities.

And also is this likely before the US Nov election. I know a hard question.

My guess is that cb are buying gold such as China are basically de dollarising slowly..they don’t want to park money in dollar or treasuries after seeing what the us..so demand for pm high but who is going to finance us fiscal deficit..I have a feeling it won’t be J.P. Morgan..inflation is sticky as should be confirmed tomorrow.…

Oil at these levels is problematic for inflation..the alternative is rate cuts and confidence in us and pms falls and the stock market marches on..

 

[DurhamBorn]

35 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Maybe almost time to get quotes on house upgrades? It was the other way during the coof rises with tradies not getting back as swamped with work / cherry picking. Been waiting for this day muahhahahaa.

Muhahahahahaha

Muhahahahahahahahahahahahaah.

 

 

Iv just had a new bathroom done in my partners for £2200,including cladding,floor etc,but with a shower on the combi taps not an electric shower.Just had new boiler as well for £1800,had to put a new flu on that though or would of been £1500.The lad who did the bathroom only does cash jobs now and again as his wife is on ESA and PIP etc so he does not want more than beer money ,so does two bathrooms a month.Only took him two days and a good job.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

I agree with your point on PM rises signalling CB's losing control.More a symptom than a cause of a BK.

The odd thing is that I was looking at this cahrt last week and wodnering when it becoems a contrarian buy if it ever does?

ZROZ as well.

The thing with Hunter is this.Much as you could slate his shrot term calls ,his long term ones have been superb.He was calling this mrket higher a year ago alongsdie PM's.and he's consistently been tehre or thereabouts with anything beyond the medium term as I remember it.

I dont know wheterh you may remmeber DB but back ni 2018 when Jay powell got the Fed chair we had an excellenet discussion down here about the dollar and it's future.

the conclusion was that the USD had one crisis left in it.the obvious question looming is whetehr that crisis was covid(manufactured) or whetehr we meant a proper financial crisis.

i thought you point on gold sniffing out the CB's problems was bang ona nd soemthign youve been saying for sometime.

also given this rise in gold,is that a sign that US debt(and by implication UK debt) is going ot get harder to shfit? could we see gilt yields moving higher even if infaltion recedes?

Ive always hedl that the looming BK would be a finacail credit event but it is beginning to look more and mroe like a sov debt/stagflation crisis

so many questions.

You can sell gilts,but the problem is as you mention they need higher coupons,and the more going into gilts means funding bennies/consumption and less available to the private sector to invest to get on top of this inflation.The long dis-inflation cycle meant polos thought they could monetise welfare and pensions etc forever without worry,but now they are finding out you cannot.The EMs have had enough of us consuming their production and getting paper and blokes wearing dresses in return.The EMs wont cut us off,they still need the western consumer,but they will expect higher payments for their goods.PMs might be running as the market is smelling this.Here in the UK the parasite class has been consuming huge amounts of saved labour.Its incredible how government has said take 50% of his lifetimes savings and give it to that retired copper and fat woman with 3 kids from Sudan on bennies,but that is what they have done,and thats just so far.

Edited April 9 by DurhamBorn

[DurhamBorn]

Have you all noticed how the Telegraph have stopped borrowing our work for articles lately?.Have any reporters left?

[Bobthebuilder]

24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

.Just had new boiler as well for £1800,had to put a new flu on that though or would of been £1500.

What make of boiler did you get for that? 

Also I would have a word with him charging £300 for a flue.

Ideal Logic and Vogue standard horizontal flue - Mr Central Heating

 

[Royston]

Anyone invested in Lotus Tech (LOT)?

Posted a net loss of £594m on the sale of 7000 cars.

So about £85k per car.

It would have been cheaper for them to just buy a Porsche Taycan for each customer and give it to them

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/business-finance/lotus-posts-£594m-loss-2023-ahead-ev-sales-growth#:~:text=Lotus delivered fewer than 7000,objectives over the coming years.

[AlfredTheLittle]

41 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Have you all noticed how the Telegraph have stopped borrowing our work for articles lately?.Have any reporters left?

They've stopped coming to my parties for some reason

[DurhamBorn]

24 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

What make of boiler did you get for that? 

Also I would have a word with him charging £300 for a flue.

Ideal Logic and Vogue standard horizontal flue - Mr Central Heating

 

Baxi Platinum i think.He changed the valves as well on the radiators so the £300 was including those as well.We have a new woman in now,she left her hubby and kids and moved in with some Jock in Glasgow who died,back here,now on bennies 48,full of carbs,even King Penda would not.Our lass says from now on no Chinese students only women like her,she is still saying i told the Chink it was ok to have the heating on 23c just so she would wander around in little shorts and tight t shirts.

[CannonFodder]

48 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Baxi Platinum i think.He changed the valves as well on the radiators so the £300 was including those as well.We have a new woman in now,she left her hubby and kids and moved in with some Jock in Glasgow who died,back here,now on bennies 48,full of carbs,even King Penda would not.Our lass says from now on no Chinese students only women like her,she is still saying i told the Chink it was ok to have the heating on 23c just so she would wander around in little shorts and tight t shirts.

Surely it was only allowed to be 23c when you were present?

 

Edited April 9 by CannonFodder

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Baxi Platinum

If that is the old style one its a decent boiler, expansion vessel goes flat very quick but you can pump it up every year with a Shrader valve bike pump.

Baxi Platinum 24 Combi Boiler - Mr Central Heating

I reckon he made about £400 on that job.

[SpectrumFX]

4 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

I suspect a decrease in DIY activity going forwards.

Sounds like he might be round unblocking the toilet.

[leonardratso]

id say its ok to have it on 23c for that reason, i believe your missus is being unreasonable. Put it to a vote.

[Red Debt Redemption]

21 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

If that is the old style one its a decent boiler, expansion vessel goes flat very quick but you can pump it up every year with a Shrader valve bike pump.

Baxi Platinum 24 Combi Boiler - Mr Central Heating

I reckon he made about £400 on that job.

How do you rate the main eco compact 30kw? Apprantly the same as the old baxi 800 now called baxi platinum compact sans the longer warranty?

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

How do you rate the main eco compact 30kw? Apprantly the same as the old baxi 800 now called baxi platinum compact sans the longer warranty?

I am not a big fan of those, the Baxi model was the first to come out, they don't last long, plastic valves inside that breakdown quickly, I have seen them totally fucked in 4 years. A mate of mine repairs for Baxi, says the 600 / 800 range are a bitch to work on. The old style platinum is the Potterton design from over 20 years ago, they are decent, Main used to make one not sure if they still do.

Just so you lot know, Potterton, Baxi and Main are all the same boilers, they just move the models down a name when new models come out, pattern parts as it were.

[Red Debt Redemption]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I am not a big fan of those, the Baxi model was the first to come out, they don't last long, plastic valves inside that breakdown quickly, I have seen them totally fucked in 4 years. A mate of mine repairs for Baxi, says the 600 / 800 range are a bitch to work on. The old style platinum is the Potterton design from over 20 years ago, they are decent, Main used to make one not sure if they still do.

Just so you lot know, Potterton, Baxi and Main are all the same boilers, they just move the models down a name when new models come out, pattern parts as it were.

Cmonnnnn Sibanyeeeee

 

 

[JMD]

11 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

What’s going on here then?

They are not ex-dividend - but both seem to have fallen rapidly in the last hour or so? 

 Possibilities: 

Ukraine war coming to an end 😀 ?

Defence contracts pulled? 

Market realised the UK government has fuck all money left to buy arms ? 
 

Profit taking to invest in silver, EMs and Commodities? 


 

Glad to be (85% sold) out of RR last week. 

Interestingly I bought BAE back in the 2020 dip around 460p. Sold when it went to about 750p - was amazed at how much it had gone up  (thought all the Ukraine 🇺🇦 excitement was already in the share) -  and then went on to see it hit 1370p a few weeks ago.  

Another case of selling far far too early. 
 

I am more and more coming around to momentum / trend buying with the macro ideas on here obviously dictating what sectors. 

I notice you say you sell too early, so would you use TA to determine the buy/sell prices for your momentum trades, or would you use a subscription service?

Edited April 9 by JMD

[Calcutta]

2 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Neither just my gut / common sense - market cap / related to PE profit / revenue etc

What’s TA? 

Territorial Army. We should all join, then when one of these bastards gives us our own money back and calls it a dividend we can get down there, lick a couple of rounds off in the lobby.

[Majorpain]

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Baxi Platinum i think.He changed the valves as well on the radiators so the £300 was including those as well.We have a new woman in now,she left her hubby and kids and moved in with some Jock in Glasgow who died,back here,now on bennies 48,full of carbs,even King Penda would not.Our lass says from now on no Chinese students only women like her,she is still saying i told the Chink it was ok to have the heating on 23c just so she would wander around in little shorts and tight t shirts.

What happened to the Asian student?