Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[spygirl]

18 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

Why don't they sell and rent for a while? They would be cash buyers then.

Or, even better - Sell and move in with Joe til they buy!

[spygirl]

16 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I love the temrinology.

you ogtta laugh,even the usual pumpers are saying this is insane....

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/first-time-buyers-offered-sub-140000338.html

High street lenders will begin offering sub-1pc mortgage rates from next week to those buying a new build property.

The new scheme, which some brokers have dubbed “the biggest innovation in the mortgage market since Help to Buy”, sees . But experts warn that first-time buyers who use the scheme face a steep jump in repayments when the term comes to an end.

Currently, the average interest rate on a two-year fix is 5.74pc, according to data firm Moneyfacts. This means borrowers moving off a sub-1pc rate could therefore face as much as a four-fold increase in their mortgage interest rate after just two years.

To secure a 0.99pc rate for two years, buyers need a 40pc deposit. A 25pc deposit will get you a 1.83pc rate, and a 10pc deposit a 3.78pc rate. Five-year rates start from 2.95pc.

Santander has also announced that from next week it will be offering 95pc mortgages to those who are buying new build properties. Currently, it only lends up to 85pc on new builds.

What a load of crap.

developers foot a portion of the interest rate bill in the first two or five years of the loan

Call it 6% mortgage. So, developer pays 5k max per 100k of house, for 2 to 5 years.

Say 200k, so 10k to 25k. Then the FTB gets full force of mortgage cost.

Knock the 40% off the price that HTB inflated them by ffs.

200k becomes 120k. Which about right.

 

[JoeDavola]

3 hours ago, Cosmic said:

The fucking state of it. No offense.

I think you might find most people would react in pretty much the same way - perhaps not quite so histrionic.

People don't like to feel that they're going down in lifestyle/percieved wealth.

[Mirror Mirror]

Good piece here from Dominic Frisby.

https://open.substack.com/pub/frisby/p/dimwitted-housing-policy-and-the?

“You might have seen in the news a couple of days back that, to make Britain’s unaffordable housing affordable, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and the Treasury are considering a scheme whereby people can buy homes with a deposit of just 1% and get a 99% mortgage.”

“It makes me weep what high house prices have done to this country. I see an entire generation, if not two, psychologically damaged, almost beyond repair, because they cannot afford somewhere decent to live.
They feel inadequate. They delay starting families, or have smaller families, or have no children at all because they cannot afford anywhere to house them. They then hate themselves because they have no children.
The result of smaller families later in life is population decline. The Blob then says there aren’t enough young people and opens the doors to mass immigration. Guess what happens then? Cheap imported labour pushes wages down, but increases demand for housing and essential services. State systems are too slow to adapt. Housing gets even more unaffordable. It is the most vicious of vicious circles.
Locals are then told that priority in the workplace must be given to the newcomer because diversity. Complain and you are racist. Your history is bad, by the way. And you wonder why everything is such a clusterfook.
Why do you think so many young people are so nihilistic? Because deep down they know they are never going to be able to afford anywhere decent to live, never mind pay off their student loans or have a family. They are, effectively, excluded from society. But stop drinking lattes and work harder.
Who do you know who can afford to buy somewhere where they grew up? I know I can’t, and I’m part of the One Percent. It’s the opposite of progress. When people can’t afford to live where they gre w up, they lose touch with their roots, their traditions, their culture, the very land. And you wonder why we have lost touch with who we are.
All because of stupid house prices.”

[One percent]

On 24/02/2024 at 15:57, Chewing Grass said:

Remember the £1.1 Million Chicken Shed from Part 2, its been reduced 10%.

Closeup on old listing.

I went to look that up. It’s a very weird layout. Multi generational living I suspect as it has two kitchens.  I lime the garden, it’s had a lot of money chucked at it. Apart from that, nah.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/124695299#/floorplan?activePlan=1&id=media0&channel=RES_BUY

[One percent]

3 hours ago, Mirror Mirror said:

Good piece here from Dominic Frisby.

https://open.substack.com/pub/frisby/p/dimwitted-housing-policy-and-the?

“You might have seen in the news a couple of days back that, to make Britain’s unaffordable housing affordable, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and the Treasury are considering a scheme whereby people can buy homes with a deposit of just 1% and get a 99% mortgage.”

“It makes me weep what high house prices have done to this country. I see an entire generation, if not two, psychologically damaged, almost beyond repair, because they cannot afford somewhere decent to live.
They feel inadequate. They delay starting families, or have smaller families, or have no children at all because they cannot afford anywhere to house them. They then hate themselves because they have no children.
The result of smaller families later in life is population decline. The Blob then says there aren’t enough young people and opens the doors to mass immigration. Guess what happens then? Cheap imported labour pushes wages down, but increases demand for housing and essential services. State systems are too slow to adapt. Housing gets even more unaffordable. It is the most vicious of vicious circles.
Locals are then told that priority in the workplace must be given to the newcomer because diversity. Complain and you are racist. Your history is bad, by the way. And you wonder why everything is such a clusterfook.
Why do you think so many young people are so nihilistic? Because deep down they know they are never going to be able to afford anywhere decent to live, never mind pay off their student loans or have a family. They are, effectively, excluded from society. But stop drinking lattes and work harder.
Who do you know who can afford to buy somewhere where they grew up? I know I can’t, and I’m part of the One Percent. It’s the opposite of progress. When people can’t afford to live where they gre w up, they lose touch with their roots, their traditions, their culture, the very land. And you wonder why we have lost touch with who we are.
All because of stupid house prices.”

Brilliant. Out of reps again 👍. He could be one of us. 

[Wight Flight]

40 minutes ago, One percent said:

Brilliant. Out of reps again 👍. He could be one of us. 

He was on ToS.

[One percent]

4 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

He was on ToS.

Really?  Interesting. I wonder if he managed the move with the rest of us 

[Wight Flight]

23 minutes ago, One percent said:

Really?  Interesting. I wonder if he managed the move with the rest of us 

Not as far as I know.

[HousePriceMania]

I've been away for a week and come back to sub 1% APR new build mortgages, 99% mortgages and the CMA investigating the housing bubble.

A weeks a long time in a ponzi scam.

Edited February 26 by HousePriceMania

[Democorruptcy]

16 hours ago, One percent said:

Really?  Interesting. I wonder if he managed the move with the rest of us 

Yes he was (or still is) Frizzers. He once PM'd me there to ask if he could use something I'd posted in an article or book. I can't remember what it was.

[onlyme]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

I've been away for a week and come back to sub 1% APR new build mortgages, 99% mortgages and the CMA investigating the housing bubble.

A weeks a long time in a ponzi scam.

It will manipulate the market price signals a bit - sell a few more houses with skewed new build sticker prices but will also help them shift houses at a price the are willing to break new ground. If anything it will divert money away from sales of existing stock and drag the demand down for those.

 

Edited February 26 by onlyme

[darkmarket]

Papers leading with further rate hikes at Coventry. Markets pricing in fewer and later cuts. The sun is out and spring is on the way, but a bounce can't materialise in these conditions, only faster falls.

All going as I'd hoped, really can't complain.

[sancho panza]

On 25/02/2024 at 10:17, ThoughtCriminal said:

Yes, white people commit crime. Not sure what the value is of that straw man observation. We are not Jesus and nobody ever made the claim.

Blacks commit crime in per capita terms that's off the charts. Same with muslims grooming girls. 

I'm afraid that you don't understand what a nation is. Create a Brazilian demographic, which we are, and you get Brazilian levels and types of crime. We are now seeing this beginning and it is going to get much, much worse.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/26/housebuilder-investigate-illegal-information-share-cma/

Housebuilders investigated over suspected collusion to push up prices

Probe follows year-long study of why so few homes are being built

Britain’s biggest housebuilders are under investigation for suspected illegal information sharing amid fears that collusion in the industry has pushed up prices.

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) on Monday announced an investigation into “suspected sharing of commercially sensitive information by housebuilders which could be influencing the build-out of sites and the prices of new homes.”

[No One]

22 hours ago, Mirror Mirror said:

Good piece here from Dominic Frisby.

https://open.substack.com/pub/frisby/p/dimwitted-housing-policy-and-the?

“You might have seen in the news a couple of days back that, to make Britain’s unaffordable housing affordable, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and the Treasury are considering a scheme whereby people can buy homes with a deposit of just 1% and get a 99% mortgage.”

“It makes me weep what high house prices have done to this country. I see an entire generation, if not two, psychologically damaged, almost beyond repair, because they cannot afford somewhere decent to live.
They feel inadequate. They delay starting families, or have smaller families, or have no children at all because they cannot afford anywhere to house them. They then hate themselves because they have no children.
The result of smaller families later in life is population decline. The Blob then says there aren’t enough young people and opens the doors to mass immigration. Guess what happens then? Cheap imported labour pushes wages down, but increases demand for housing and essential services. State systems are too slow to adapt. Housing gets even more unaffordable. It is the most vicious of vicious circles.
Locals are then told that priority in the workplace must be given to the newcomer because diversity. Complain and you are racist. Your history is bad, by the way. And you wonder why everything is such a clusterfook.
Why do you think so many young people are so nihilistic? Because deep down they know they are never going to be able to afford anywhere decent to live, never mind pay off their student loans or have a family. They are, effectively, excluded from society. But stop drinking lattes and work harder.
Who do you know who can afford to buy somewhere where they grew up? I know I can’t, and I’m part of the One Percent. It’s the opposite of progress. When people can’t afford to live where they gre w up, they lose touch with their roots, their traditions, their culture, the very land. And you wonder why we have lost touch with who we are.
All because of stupid house prices.”

Dominc Frisby just became my favurite person of the month. He has articulated what we've been saying here in a concise and easy-to-follow way.

[spunko]

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136656209#/?channel=RES_BUY

26 Feb 2024	£950,000	→	£900,000
28 Dec 2023	£975,000	→	£950,000
20 Nov 2023	£1,000,000	→	£975,000
19 Oct 2023	£1,150,000	→	£1,000,000
19 Jul 2023	£1,250,000	→	£1,150,000
28 Jun 2023	First seen	→	£1,250,000

Always makes me laugh when people put Offers In Excess Of then a few weeks later drop the price, to another Offers In Excess Of.

[AWW]

On 25/02/2024 at 12:25, Mirror Mirror said:

Good piece here from Dominic Frisby.

https://open.substack.com/pub/frisby/p/dimwitted-housing-policy-and-the?

“You might have seen in the news a couple of days back that, to make Britain’s unaffordable housing affordable, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and the Treasury are considering a scheme whereby people can buy homes with a deposit of just 1% and get a 99% mortgage.”

“It makes me weep what high house prices have done to this country. I see an entire generation, if not two, psychologically damaged, almost beyond repair, because they cannot afford somewhere decent to live.
They feel inadequate. They delay starting families, or have smaller families, or have no children at all because they cannot afford anywhere to house them. They then hate themselves because they have no children.
The result of smaller families later in life is population decline. The Blob then says there aren’t enough young people and opens the doors to mass immigration. Guess what happens then? Cheap imported labour pushes wages down, but increases demand for housing and essential services. State systems are too slow to adapt. Housing gets even more unaffordable. It is the most vicious of vicious circles.
Locals are then told that priority in the workplace must be given to the newcomer because diversity. Complain and you are racist. Your history is bad, by the way. And you wonder why everything is such a clusterfook.
Why do you think so many young people are so nihilistic? Because deep down they know they are never going to be able to afford anywhere decent to live, never mind pay off their student loans or have a family. They are, effectively, excluded from society. But stop drinking lattes and work harder.
Who do you know who can afford to buy somewhere where they grew up? I know I can’t, and I’m part of the One Percent. It’s the opposite of progress. When people can’t afford to live where they gre w up, they lose touch with their roots, their traditions, their culture, the very land. And you wonder why we have lost touch with who we are.
All because of stupid house prices.”

ZIRP is at the root of pretty much every societal ill, in my book.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, spunko said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136656209#/?channel=RES_BUY

26 Feb 2024	£950,000	→	£900,000
28 Dec 2023	£975,000	→	£950,000
20 Nov 2023	£1,000,000	→	£975,000
19 Oct 2023	£1,150,000	→	£1,000,000
19 Jul 2023	£1,250,000	→	£1,150,000
28 Jun 2023	First seen	→	£1,250,000

Always makes me laugh when people put Offers In Excess Of then a few weeks later drop the price, to another Offers In Excess Of.

I was thinking nice hosue for the moeny till I looked inside and  realsied it was a semi

 

in otehr news US top looks like June 22.I think the US is ahead of us in terms or property prices droping

marekt looks relatively bidless.Lot of people staying out which you can on 30 yr mrotgages

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/22/this-housing-market-is-still-frozen/

This Housing Market is Still Frozen

by Wolf Richter • Feb 22, 2024 • 171 Comments

The median price of existing homes dropped further, high was June 2022, demand remains collapsed, active listings highest in 4 years, days on the market rise.

Demand has collapsed.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales ticked up to 4.0 million in January from 3.88 million in December, and was down 2% from the collapsed levels a year ago.

In the last few months of 2023, the rate of sales had been the worst since the two worst months of the Housing Bust in 2010. January was just a hair higher.

Sales compared to prior Januarys (historic data via YCharts):

• From 2023: -2%.
• From 2022: -37%
• From 2021: -40%
• From 2019: -20%.
• From 2018: -26%.

This market is still frozen, marked by collapsed sales despite mortgage rates that had fallen during the time many of the deals were made, amid adequate but not ample supply, rising days on the market, and a national median price that for the first time since the Housing Bust failed to make an all-time high in well over a year, as many potential buyers and sellers are trying to outwait this situation.

Edited February 26 by sancho panza

[Boon]

Coming to a London new build near you....

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/5016432-help-to-buy-valuation-report-rejected

It's gonna be tough for valuers to ignore an increasing number of transactions of comparable properties at actual sold prices, so unless something is going to happen to increase those values this will keep happening. Especialy when the market is falling still or searching for direction.

I see flats going on for £450k-500k where the actual sales for something similar in the same block being £375-400k, and the current sold prices (not on LR yet) could be even lower.

[HousePriceMania]

28 minutes ago, Boon said:

Coming to a London new build near you....

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/5016432-help-to-buy-valuation-report-rejected

It's gonna be tough for valuers to ignore an increasing number of transactions of comparable properties at actual sold prices, so unless something is going to happen to increase those values this will keep happening. Especialy when the market is falling still or searching for direction.

I see flats going on for £450k-500k where the actual sales for something similar in the same block being £375-400k, and the current sold prices (not on LR yet) could be even lower.

Am I reading this right....the government HTB scamsters wont accept the valuation or are they refusing to accept it ?

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Am I reading this right....the government HTB scamsters wont accept the valuation or are they refusing to accept it ?

HTB was always sold as cost neutral, since house prices "always go up". If the scheme starts having to acknowledge losses when loans are repaid at a lower valuation they would be obligated to write down the rest of the outstanding loans accordingly, and this would show a horrific total paper loss all but killing off any chance of further schemes.

HTB is trying to get repaid its % at the buying price, rather than todays valuation.

[One percent]

4 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

HTB was always sold as cost neutral, since house prices "always go up". If the scheme starts having to acknowledge losses when loans are repaid at a lower valuation they would be obligated to write down the rest of the outstanding loans accordingly, and this would show a horrific total paper loss all but killing off any chance of further schemes.

HTB is trying to get repaid its % at the buying price, rather than todays valuation.

That’s a bit cheeky. They are essentially saying that the buyer covers all the risk then.  What a bunch of grifting cunts. And this is government too. 

[darkmarket]

13 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

HTB was always sold as cost neutral, since house prices "always go up". If the scheme starts having to acknowledge losses when loans are repaid at a lower valuation they would be obligated to write down the rest of the outstanding loans accordingly, and this would show a horrific total paper loss all but killing off any chance of further schemes.

HTB is trying to get repaid its % at the buying price, rather than todays valuation.

I wonder can they legally block sales that would leave them in the red, it reads like that's what they're investigating in their legal department. We may have a new iteration of the mortgage prisoner.

[One percent]

5 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

I wonder can they legally block sales that would leave them in the red, it reads like that's what they're investigating in their legal department. We may have a new iteration of the mortgage prisoner.

I would be amazed if they got away with this. Then again, it really wouldn’t surprise me.  I wonder what the contract says.  

[sancho panza]

14 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

I wonder can they legally block sales that would leave them in the red, it reads like that's what they're investigating in their legal department. We may have a new iteration of the mortgage prisoner.

Of course they can.If you have a mrotgage,then the mortgagee has a right to decide when/how it takes  aloss.

I believe the govt is second charge on the schemes so therefore possible the taxpayer will take the loss but more likely the usnuspecting punters that took them out.25%+ down and mortgages obviously take the hit.

Edited February 26 by sancho panza